Six for Sunday: Hot, cold and sleeper drivers to watch at Texas
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The NASCAR Cup Series rolls into Texas Motor Speedway this weekend for the 11th points-paying race of the 2026 campaign, fresh off Carson Hocevar's first career victory this past Sunday at Talladega Superspeedway.
Racing Insights has identified six drivers to keep an eye on this weekend -- with notes on each -- as they seek their respective first wins of the season, all with varying degrees of momentum at the 1.5-mile Fort Worth intermediate track before Sunday's race (3:30 p.m. ET, FS1, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).
MORE: Full weekend schedule | Entry list
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🔥 Kyle Larson, No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet
Driver page | Texas stats
📝 Notes to know:
• Has finished in the top 10 in three of the last five Texas races, including a win in October 2021.
• Has found the front of the field in each of the last five Texas races, for a total of 541 laps led.
• Has won at least one stage in each of the last five Texas races.
• Leads all drivers in laps run in the top five and the top 10 in the Next Gen car at Texas.
🎯 Takeaway: A none-too-concerning yet still-growing winless drought for the reigning champ has quickly and nearly reached a full calendar year, but Texas marks as good of a spot for Larson to snap it. After landing 40th at Talladega following a wreck, there's a strong chance he flips that around this weekend and takes the checkered flag.
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🔥 William Byron, No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet
Driver page | Texas stats
📝 Notes to know:
• Has finished in the top 10 in four of the last five Texas races, including a win in September 2023.
• Has finished on the lead lap in each of the last six Texas races.
• Has averaged a top-10 running position in four of the last five Texas races.
• Has never finished outside the top 20 in a stage at Texas.
🎯 Takeaway: No. 24 will arrive in Texas more than 200 points in the hole and outside the top 10 in the standings, as Byron's uncharacteristic start to 2026 has yet to find its footing completely. He could be about to make his moment this weekend, though, as Texas lines up exceedingly well for he and his champion teammate, and it may just come down to whose pit crew gives them the greater edge. Either way, expect a big weekend ahead for Byron.
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🥶 Chris Buescher, No. 17 RFK Racing Ford
Driver page | Texas stats
📝 Notes to know:
• Has a best Texas finish of just 14th across 16 starts.
• Has only three lead-lap finishes at Texas.
• Has averaged a finish of 22nd at Texas.
🎯 Takeaway: The name of Buescher's hometown couldn't be any more ironic, as he's done anything but prosper at his home track. The good news is that he's certainly more than well aware of and trying to fix this, and as one of 2026's most complete teams so far, there's reason to think the No. 17's Lone Star cold spell could take a turn in the Texas heat sooner than later.
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🥶 Alex Bowman, No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet
Driver page | Texas stats
📝 Notes to know:
• Has only two top-10 finishes in 16 Texas starts.
• Has finished 12th or worse in his last five Texas races.
• Has failed to finish four of his last seven Texas starts due to accidents.
🎯 Takeaway: Talladega was a nice boost for Bowman and the No. 48 team after enduring a difficult start to 2026, but it's unfortunately not likely it continues this weekend out west, historically speaking. Despite his rough personal stats, Bowman can always take solace in the fact that Hendrick generally has 1.5-milers dialed in, and if he keeps it clean -- which, per the last note, has been his ailment there lately -- the speed in his No. 48 could still potentially land him a top 10.
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🛌 Daniel Suárez, No. 7 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet
Driver page | Texas stats
📝 Notes to know:
• Has finished in the top 12 in the last five Texas races.
• Has finished in the top 10 in the last three Texas races -- the longest active streak.
• Has landed six top-10 finishes in the last nine Texas races.
🎯 Takeaway: Two in a row for Spire Motorsports? Suárez could join his young teammate as a 2026 winner this weekend in Fort Worth, with the speedy intermediate lining up as one of his best tracks and the organization as well-positioned at the current moment as it's ever been. If he does, it'll be his first win since February 2024 -- so he's due.
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🛌 Brad Keselowski, No. 6 RFK Racing Ford
Driver page | Texas stats
📝 Notes to know:
• Three-time Texas runner-up.
• Has finished in the top 10 in six of the last seven Texas races.
• His 685 laps led at Texas are the most of all active drivers without a win there.
🎯 Takeaway: Given he's a central piece of arguably the track's most iconic moment and has been racing there for nearly two decades, it's shocking that Keselowski remains without a win at Texas, especially since he's run pretty well there historically. That can obviously change any time he heads to the 1.5-mile track, and this weekend, already on pace for his best average finish under the RFK banner, marks as good a time as any to finally break through.