Chase strategies divergent, unknown at Chicago

Any and all strategies and mindsets will be in play in Sunday’s MyAFibStory.com 400 (2 p.m. ET, ESPN), the opening event of the three-race Challenger Round in which all 16 Chase drivers will vie for the 12 spots in the Contender Round.

“There are a lot of different ways you can win, or advance, with this format,” said Brad Keselowski, the postseason’s top-seeded driver after winning four races in NASCAR’s regular season. “We can run through all the hypotheticals, but there’s so many different scenarios that it’s a waste of time in my mind. I just want to go out there and take care of business.”

Taking care of business presents the simplest and most clear, direct path to Homestead-Miami Speedway for the Championship Round, where four drivers have a shot at the Sprint Cup Series championship. Winning a race guarantees an eligible Chase driver a spot in the next round.

So win once in the Challenger Round, the Contender Round and the Eliminator Round, you’re in Homestead with absolutely no questions asked.

What if you don’t win in all three rounds? That scenario, which is far more likely than the first, is where the water becomes murky.

“I think you could get through this whole Chase and not win a race and win a championship,” said Kevin Harvick, who had two regular-season wins. “There’s so many ways this whole thing could shake out. You could see one of the favorites get knocked out in first two rounds, and they can be back in stride and win the last few races.

“There’s a million different ways it could all play out.”

To combat that aura of uncertainty, NASCAR drivers are prepping for Sunday’s opener and the ensuing postseason events in a variety of ways.

Denny Hamlin said he will be more mindful of his pit-road speed, opting to go a hair slower to ensure not surpassing the limit — even if it risks losing a position or two.

Kyle Busch is one driver who comes to the track with a brand-new, never-been-used car.

Harvick has practically a brand-new crew on pit road, while Aric Almirola‘s over-the-wall team was also tweaked.

These moves were made to give those respective drivers, and their teams, the best shot at a championship, whether it comes by winning or logging top-10s.

“I think consistency is still going to pay off, at least in the first couple of rounds,” Hendrick Motorsports driver Jeff Gordon said. “Now, what it takes to move on to Homestead is a little different than going from the first segment to the second, and the second to the third. But there’s no strategy or formula that’s going to be perfect.

“There’s no magic formula to winning no matter what the format is because you don’t know what the other cars are going to do.”

While some drivers, such as Keselowski, agreed with Harvick that winning a title could come without winning a postseason event, others wouldn’t go that far.

“I think consistency can get you to the fourth round at Homestead,” Kasey Kahne said. “Wins are more important if you want to win a championship. I think your wins get you going in the right direction, and that’s what’s going to win a championship in my opinion. You have to win races.”

Perhaps Carl Edwards, who brought a fast No. 99 Roush Fenway Racing Ford to the track this week, said it the most succinctly.

His strategy would guarantee practically any of the Chase drivers a championship. How feasible it is presents a different question altogether.

“Really,” Edwards said, “what it comes down to is, you have to be perfect.”

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