Only 18 points separate 8th and 16th for Challenger Round finale
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There are 16 Challengers heading to Dover International Speedway, but only 12 Contenders will remain when the checkered flag flies on the AAA 400 (Sunday, Sept. 28, 2 p.m. ET, ESPN). Nine drivers are within 18 points of the cut-off spot to advance to the 12-nation Contender Round in the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup.
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CHASE BUBBLE
| Pos. | Driver | +/- |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Kevin Harvick | +41 |
| 4 | Jimmie Johnson | +31 |
| 5 | Kyle Busch | +28 |
| 6 | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | +28 |
| 7 | Jeff Gordon | +21 |
| 8 | Matt Kenseth | +8 |
| 9 | Carl Edwards | +8 |
| 10 | AJ Allmendinger | +7 |
| 11 | Kasey Kahne | +6 |
| 12 | Ryan Newman | +6 |
| 13 | Denny Hamlin | -6 |
| 14 | Greg Biffle | -6 |
| 15 | Kurt Busch | -8 |
| 16 | Aric Almirola | -10 |
With wins in the first two races of the Challenger Round, Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano have advanced. Kevin Harvick (+41), Jimmie Johnson (+31), Kyle Busch (+28), Dale Earnhardt Jr. (+28) and Jeff Gordon (+21) have a solid buffer over the cut-off for the next round.
Matt Kenseth (+8), Carl Edwards (+8), AJ Allmendinger (+7), Kasey Kahne (+6) and Ryan Newman (+6) are in the top 12 for now, but they are only a precious few positions on the race track from missing their chance to continue on in the Chase.
Denny Hamlin (-6), Greg Biffle (-6), Kurt Busch (-8) and Aric Almirola (-10) need to rally to keep their championship hopes alive, with a win being their surest ticket to continue their Chase battle.
Of the drivers on the bubble, “Concrete” Carl Edwards has the best average finish at Dover (10.2), which is second only to Johnson among active drivers. Edwards has a win, eight top-fives and 12 top-10s in 20 career starts.
Kenseth is next-best on the bubble with a 13th-place average finish. He’s got two wins, 14 top-fives and 20 top-10s in 31 career starts.
Biffle is third-best with a 13.4 average finish and two victories to go with six top-fives and 11 top-10s in 24 career starts.
Newman’s 13.6 average finish has come on the strength of three wins, six top-fives and 12 top-10s to go with four Coors Light Pole Awards.
Almirola has a 15.4 average finish, earning a sixth-place finish in his NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Dover debut in 2012. It’s his only top-10 in five starts. He’ll get some additional seat time in the No. 98 NASCAR Nationwide Series ride, doing the double at Dover as he did in the Chase-opening MyAFibStory.com 400 at Chicagoland Speedway. The extra laps seemed to help before a blown engine ended what appeared to be a top-five run.
If the 12th position comes down to a tiebreaker, only the three races in the Challenger Round matter. Wins and finishes in the regular season won’t, so these nine drivers will need to run up front to challenge for the win. If they can’t win, they’ll need to have more second-place finishes, third-place finishes, etc. than their competitors in order to break the tie and advance. If two drivers have the exact same finishes, the tie-breaker then goes to the driver who scored the best finish first.
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