Chase scenarios for Kurt and Kyle Busch, Ragan

NASCAR revised the eligibility rules for the Chase ahead of the 2014 season, stipulating that drivers can virtually clinch one of the 16 berths with a victory in one of the 26 regular-season races (provided they rank in the top 30 in driver points), with the remaining slots filled by the highest-ranking drivers in the Sprint Cup standings.

Ordinarily, drivers who compete for the Sprint Cup championship in the 10-race Chase must start all 26 races during the regular season. An exception was granted last season to Denny Hamlin, who missed a regular-season event in March because of an eye injury but won a race two months later at Talladega Superspeedway. Tony Stewart, who missed three races after his involvement in a fatal sprint car incident, would have been granted an exception into the Chase had he met the criteria of winning a regular-season race or maintaining a higher position in the standings.

A glance at what each driver involved in the roster changes would potentially need, if all other criteria are met, to qualify for the 2015 Chase:

— Kurt Busch: On March 11, NASCAR reinstated Busch after suspending him for the first three races of the season, and it waived the requirement that a driver must compete in all points events to be eligible for the Chase. If he wins a race and is in the top 30 in points at the end of the 26-race regular season, he will be eligible to make the Chase. As part of the terms of his reinstatement, Busch must continue his “participation in a treatment program and full compliance with all judicial requirements as a result of his off-track behavior.”

— Kyle Busch: Last weekend’s heavy crash in the NASCAR XFINITY Series opener leaves the perennial Chase competitor on the shelf for what’s likely a lengthy recovery period with multiple leg injuries. If Busch were somehow healthy enough to return to the Joe Gibbs Racing No. 18 by midseason, how many races could he miss while retaining Chase eligibility? NASCAR competition officials don’t have a fixed number of absences required to rule drivers out; each affected driver is handled on case-by-case basis.

— David Ragan: The journeyman’s seat-hopping escapade, bolting his Front Row Motorsports home in an effort to showcase his talent in the JGR No. 18 in place of Kyle Busch, won’t alter his Chase eligibility. As long as he can fulfill the Chase criteria of winning a regular-season race, attempting to start every event and maintaining a spot in the top 30 in Sprint Cup points, then Ragan would make the playoffs. With his win and points, Ragan would make the Chase in whichever car — the No. 18 for Joe Gibbs Racing, the No. 34 for Front Row Motorsports or another car — he is driving at the start of the postseason.

— Regan Smith: In three races as a substitute for Kurt Busch in the Stewart-Haas Racing No. 41, Smith did not win a race for the team. Even if he had, he made the declaration that he would compete for championship points in the NASCAR XFINITY Series for his regular ride, the JR Motorsports No. 7 Chevrolet team, so he would not become eligible for the Chase as long as he continues to earn points in the XFINITY Series.

— Brian Vickers: After undergoing heart surgery in mid-December, Vickers missed the first two races of the season with Michael Waltrip filling in at the Daytona 500 and Brett Moffitt driving the No. 55 Michael Waltrip Racing car at Atlanta before returning to the ride at Las Vegas. NASCAR Executive Vice President and Chief Racing Development Officer Steve O’Donnell announced on Jan. 21 that Vickers would maintain his Chase eligibility, provided he meets all other necessary requirements.
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