Was Chase Elliott’s win Sunday at Watkins Glen a culmination of a summer’s worth of improvement, a fun story line where a previously winless driver joins this year’s championship contenders? Or was it more a case of him being in the right place at the right time?
Let’s take a look at the statistical evidence.
Elliott’s average finish across 22 starts this season is 13.0. However, in races with eight or more starts and restarts, his average finish is 21.7, a result putting him in the neighborhood of Chris Buescher (18.3), Kasey Kahne (21.0) and Michael McDowell (21.2). Among this group, Elliott’s car is the only one ranked in the top 20 for yearlong Central Speed.
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Meanwhile, in the races with fewer than eight starts and restarts, including Watkins Glen, his average finish is 9.8, fourth-best among regulars in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series, trailing only Kyle Busch (3.9), Kevin Harvick (5.3) and Martin Truex, Jr. (6.7), three drivers who’ve combined for 16 victories in 2018.
Eight of the last nine races saw less than eight starts and restarts. Elliott scored an 8.5-place average finish in those events.
Restarts have stymied Elliott this season. His 77.5 percent position retention rate on preferred groove restarts ranks 17th in the series. His 37 percent retention on non-preferred groove attempts also ranks 17th. The poor retention habits are reflected in races with high restart tallies.
The bad restart stat may suggest a problem in his driving repertoire, something Elliott eventually will have to address; however, his issue is mitigated on tracks and in races that don’t induce a high number of restarts. Instead of struggling to clear his biggest hurdle, this summer stretch, as predicted, has given mileage to his long-run passing acumen.
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Elliott, an efficient passer in two seasons at the NASCAR Xfinity Series level, recorded the second-best surplus passing value in 2017, scoring a pass differential 172 spots better than his average running position’s expectation. In 2018, his overall passing value has regressed, but he’s still one of the 10 best passers in the series, subsisting on high long-run pass efficiencies on short tracks and 2-mile tracks. Additionally, he’s proving a stingy defender. To date in 2018, his adjusted pass differential for a single race dipped below minus-4 just twice.
With clean air and a caution-free final stage, Elliott would’ve been tough for anyone to pass in the waning laps at Watkins Glen. Truex, the reigning series champ and winner in the only other road-course race this year, ran his gas tank dry attempting to overtake him.
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Elliott’s first victory came in a type of race that played to his statistical strengths. As his number of strengths expands, so too may his win total.
Only 22, Elliott should develop into a more reliable and well-rounded driver, with styles suiting most scenarios that befall modern-day NASCAR races. For now, he has a discernible strength, a weakness that doesn’t always play a factor and capitalized on a summer stretch of the schedule that appears tailor-made to showcase his abilities.
David Smith is the Founder of MotorsportsAnalytics.com. Follow him on Twitter at @DavidSmithMA.