February feels like such a long time ago. More like nine years ago than nine months ago. Back before the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series season started, I prompted the fine citizens of Twitter to call their shot early: which four drivers would make up the Championship 4?
https://twitter.com/steveluvender/status/1227951400107356160
Of course, nobody could really have predicted all the madness that would unfold in this unpredictable year — on and off the track. And, if they could predict it and didn’t warn us, then, well, that’s just not cool.
For instance, who would have guessed defending champion Kyle Busch would struggle to repeat his 2019 success and face an early elimination? What reasonable person could have foreseen an untimely Kevin Harvick collapse in the playoffs? Who would have imagined Cole Custer would be the newest first-time winner in the Cup Series? (OK, that was me, and I haven’t stopped bragging about it since Custer won at Kentucky in July.)
Still, surely somebody could have defied all the odds and picked the Championship 4 before everything went all topsy-turvy, right? Before we raced three times at Darlington and added the Daytona Road Course to the schedule? Prior to the time where Denny Hamlin was merely a two-time Daytona 500 champion and wasn’t planning to team up with Michael Jordan?
OMG, someone did it
Turns out the answer is yes. Twitter was right.
Well, one Twitter user was right: @MarkRH was the only respondent who, on February 13, 2020, guessed the Championship 4 would come down to Chase Elliott, Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, and Denny Hamlin.
https://twitter.com/MarkRH/status/1228059785104326657
Like 2020 itself, it’s simply unbelievable.
Let’s all offer a hearty congratulations to @MarkRH (from at least six feet), who somehow pulled off what even our own fantasy experts couldn’t guess.
For reference, in 2019, two people predicted the Championship 4. In 2018, not one person guessed correctly.
The Wall of Shame
Of course, accountability goes both ways. We can laud @MarkRH, who was nothing short of prophetic, but we also have to make fun of the guesses that were so bad that all four of their Championship 4 predictions were wrong.
For these 17, thank you for participating, and may you have better luck next season.
https://twitter.com/n_lee88/status/1228034550737047553
https://twitter.com/JackieLHelton/status/1228028229023404032
https://twitter.com/Matt2Harrington/status/1228029514376241153
https://twitter.com/berubay/status/1227953213862752256
https://twitter.com/Matt_Toasty/status/1227984588284231680
https://twitter.com/LJTolito11/status/1228008288236769282
https://twitter.com/spannerhead29/status/1229078897066536960
https://twitter.com/JasonD2k14/status/1227952692728860672
https://twitter.com/brianruether17/status/1228117906183139331
https://twitter.com/LeftTurnMan/status/1228070287851347968
https://twitter.com/TimMuff/status/1227952081832685572
https://twitter.com/Bleichjesse/status/1227952760257236994
https://twitter.com/AlveyChase/status/1227957308812136449
https://twitter.com/king_Dan27/status/1227964718733778944
https://twitter.com/DNewsomeRacing/status/1227970534798954497
https://twitter.com/CKTheFlyingScot/status/1227974734287118338
https://twitter.com/tigers2k20/status/1227975492252372992
And a few tweets more
What’s Twitter without a little fun? I’ve got to pick on a few specific responses back in February.
https://twitter.com/Lvingrmwarwagon/status/1227961770058358785
My friend, it turned out nothing was predictable or boring about 2020. Though, there may have been times were a little semblance of predictability would have been nice.
https://twitter.com/dwest9cubs/status/1227952471634587648
The joke here was that all four picks are retired drivers but who would have guessed the full-time return of Matt Kenseth? Not me. 2020, man.
https://twitter.com/AceMoneymaker06/status/1227983591902269446
Finally, I suppose there’s technically a second correct response between one and three drivers won in the Round of 8, and at least one driver advanced on points. While we can’t count this in the official record, I’ll give a tip of the cap for finding a loophole. You’d make a fine crew chief. (Or fast-thinking jackman.)
Thanks to everybody who played along! We’ll do it again next year where, maybe, hopefully, things feel at least a little more predictable.