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May 7, 2023

Fantasy Update: Long run vs. short run, Toyota vs. Hendrick Motorsports


The race weekend at Kansas Speedway didn’t start off well for William Byron. In the opening laps of practice, the No. 24 Chevrolet slapped the wall in Turns 3 and 4 and had the 16th quickest single-lap speed. But Byron rebounded in qualifying by winning the pole – his second of the season. Byron now has 10 career poles at 10 different tracks at the Cup Series level. That doesn’t affect my lineup, however, as I’ve made no changes from Fantasy Fastlane.

RELATED: Starting lineup for Sunday | Set your Fantasy Live roster

Dustin Albino’s race-day lineup:

Starter 1: Martin Truex Jr.
Starter 2: Denny Hamlin
Starter 3: Tyler Reddick
Starter 4: Bubba Wallace
Starter 5: Kyle Larson
Garage pick: Ross Chastain

NEXT IN LINE: William Byron, Christopher Bell, Daniel Suárez, Kyle Busch

RISING: As noted in Fantasy Fastlane earlier this week, Kansas hasn’t been all that kind to Logano in recent years. He’s a three-time winner at the track but collected a pair of 17th-place finishes last season at the 1.5-miler. The No. 22 car made just six laps in practice, the fewest of all 36 cars. Collectively, I’m shying away from Ford this weekend, but Logano looked to manhandle his car for all it was worth on Saturday.

With just one top-15 finish in the last eight races this season, Suárez needs to right the ship before it’s too late. Currently, he’s below the playoff cutline, ranked 17th in points. The good news for the No. 99 team is they put a competitive car on the track Saturday, ranking fourth on 10-lap averages. He will start ninth on Sunday and rounded out the top 10 in the Kansas race last fall.

FALLING: What a difference a few weeks can make at a totally different style of track. At Martinsville Speedway last month, Stewart-Haas Racing was the team to beat. This week? Three-time Kansas winner Kevin Harvick led the four-car brigade but was just 27th in practice. Qualifying wasn’t much better overall for the team, but Harvick improved to 13th. Stay clear of SHR this weekend.

Historically, Chase Elliott has been a threat at Kansas with eight top-10 finishes in 14 starts, including a victory in 2018. But while Elliott’s two Hendrick Motorsports teammates, Byron and Larson, share the front row, the No. 9 team will be mired in 21st when the green flag waves. In practice, he ranked 16th out of 22 drivers to make a 10-lap run. With a host of road courses and other strong ovals on the schedule, don’t use Elliott this weekend.

MORE: Read all the info for Kansas showdown

FEATURED MATCHUPS

Denny Hamlin vs. Martin Truex Jr.: These two Joe Gibbs Racing drivers looked even on Saturday during practice and qualifying. The No. 11 Toyota was the quickest car in the field on 10-, 15- and 20-lap average. Truex was no slouch, ranking fifth on 10-lap averages. Flip a coin because this could go either way, but Truex sealed the deal at Dover last week and could easily go on a late spring heater. The No. 19 car is my pick to win the AdventHealth 400.

Josh Berry vs. Ty Gibbs: Look no further than Gibbs, who drives a Toyota. While Berry’s HMS teammates share the front row, he lacks experience – especially on intermediate tracks – to Gibbs in the Next Gen cars. Berry’s first start of the year was a struggle at Las Vegas when he filled in for Elliott. Gibbs has constantly improved this season and should contend for a top-10 finishing position – if not better – on Sunday.

Tyler Reddick vs. Bubba Wallace: Like the two JGR teammates of Hamlin and Truex, the 23XI Racing duo of Reddick and Wallace were both solid. Wallace got tight on his qualifying run and will start 17th. Don’t let that stir you away from thinking about using the No. 23 Toyota on Sunday; he’s going to be strong and won at Kansas last fall. But I still lean Reddick. Should Reddick win on Sunday, it will be the first time in NASCAR history that the same car number has won at the same track in three straight races with different drivers.

Ross Chastain vs. Kyle Larson: Seems like these guys are probably on good terms, right? Ha. The good news for both drivers is they showed plenty of speed in practice and qualifying and will likely be running towards the front of the field. Chastain, the regular season championship leader, is consistently consistent, while Larson’s uneven season will likely continue Sunday. Larson wasn’t pleased with his long-run speed, but I’m thinking the Cliff Daniels-led team will figure it out, and Larson will be in contention for the win. He’s the pick.

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