It’s hard to believe, but the 2023 NASCAR Playoffs are coming.
As we emerge from the lone off week of the season with our eyes fully focused on the 10 races ahead that will decide the ’23 postseason field, let’s take a look back at what we’ve learned and what it means moving forward.
Before we take to Tennessee for Sunday’s Ally 400 at Nashville Superspeedway (7 p.m. ET, NBC, PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App), check in with every full-timer’s season to date, sorted by current standings rank with a look at key stats, best remaining regular-season track and analysis on what to expect the rest of the way.
Active Nashville winners | 2023 Cup Series winners | Odds to win title
Martin Truex Jr., No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota
Playoff standings: 2nd, 2,026 points
Key stat: Series-best 15 lead-lap finishes; on pace to better previous career-high of 31 (2015) for a series-best 11.4 average finish.
Best remaining track: Watkins Glen (10.9 avg. fin., 1 win)
Analysis: For a driver that nearly walked away from the sport a year ago, Truex’s renaissance has been something to witness. He looks every bit the title contender he’s been for the past decade and he and crew chief James Small appear to be clicking on all cylinders at the moment.
MORE: Analysis: Toyota’s return to road-course dominance at Sonoma
William Byron, No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet
Playoff standings: 1st, 2,027 points
Key stat: Owns outright or tied for series lead in: wins, top fives, top 10s, poles, laps led, average start.
Best remaining track: Pocono (9.4 avg. fin.)
Analysis: We’d been hearing for years that Byron is the future. Well, he’s now the present and you can make a serious case that he’s been the driver to beat in 2023. A clear championship contender, look for Byron to pour on a few more wins as he makes his first title run with legs.
Ryan Blaney, No. 12 Team Penske Ford
Playoff standings: 4th, 2,015 points
Key stat: On pace for a career-high 21 top-10 finishes (currently has nine).
Best remaining track: Atlanta (11.6 avg. fin., 1 win)
Analysis: There were some early questions this season about Blaney’s ability to take the next step up in the echelon of drivers, but the late spring saw him find a nice groove to position himself as one of the strongest out there entering the break. Another win – or two, with so many good tracks upcoming for him – before the playoffs would go a long way to bolstering his status and firmly asserting himself into the conversation.
Ross Chastain, No. 1 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet
Playoff standings: 6th, 2,012 points
Key stat: On pace for fewer top fives, top 10s and a worse average finish (13.9) than last season’s breakout.
Best remaining track: Nashville (3.5 avg fin.)
Analysis: Early on, it seemed Chastain was in the mix at the front of the field late. Then … things happened, conversations were had … and the No. 1 driver hasn’t been as prominent over the past month. Look for him and Trackhouse as a whole to come back from the break fresh, re-focused and ready to whoop some butt. Perhaps even literally.
MORE: Winless drivers who could score victory in final 10
Kevin Harvick, No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford
Playoff standings: 11th, 2,007 points
Key stat: Has finished worse than fifth in points just once since 2016 – last year, in 15th. Currently? Fifth in points.
Best remaining track: Richmond (9.5 avg. fin., 4 wins)
Analysis: For starters, Harvick looks entirely rejuvenated right now and when he hangs it up at the end of the year, he’s going to be going out at the top of his game. Though winless in 2023, the 2014 champ has a shot to pile on a few more victories over the summer – we saw him go back-to-back at Richmond and Michigan just last year.
Kyle Busch, No. 8 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet
Playoff standings: 3rd, 2,022 points
Key stat: Three 2023 wins in 16 races, just one fewer than his final three seasons at Joe Gibbs Racing combined.
Best remaining track: Richmond (7.2 avg. fin., 6 wins)
Analysis: Busch has exceeded just about every expectation set for him in his first season with RCR after a tumultuous end to a strong tenure with JGR. He’s come out and firmly re-established himself as a title favorite and it’s very much on the table that he could become the sport’s first three-time champion since Tony Stewart did it in 2011.
MORE: Drivers to win three races in first 15 starts with new team
Christopher Bell, No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota
Playoff standings: 9th, 2,009 points
Key stat: Nearly identical pace to his 2022 stats, but thus far turning in a career-best 13.1 average finish.
Best remaining track: Richmond (5.7 avg. fin.)
Analysis: Bell has looked the part once again after making a surprise run to the Championship 4 a season ago. He’s still looking for his first non-dirt win of 2023 but has tended to heat up a bit over the summer. At this point last year, there was doubt he would even make the playoffs, and look where he landed.
Denny Hamlin, No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota
Playoff standings: 7th, 2,011 points
Key stat: Turned in his worst average finish (15.5) since 2013 last year – and his current 14.6 metric would be his second-worst average finish since 2013.
Best remaining track: Richmond (8.7 avg. fin., 4 wins)
Analysis: It’s been a typical Denny year so far – plenty of headlines, plenty of speed, plenty of headscratchers … and perhaps another date with destiny in the Championship 4. We’ve yet to really see Hamlin hammer it in there in 2023, but I get the feeling he’s about to really get hot over the summer.
Joey Logano, No. 22 Team Penske Ford
Playoff standings: 8th, 2,009 points
Key stat: Led 140 laps in Atlanta victory in Race 5 … and has led just 37 laps since.
Best remaining track: Michigan (12.2 avg. fin., 3 wins)
Analysis: Logano has made it clear that the Fords this year have some work to do and are behind the 8-ball to a degree, indicating he’d have to be “perfect” to race his way to back-to-back championships. If there’s any driver that can do it, he’s one of them, and we’ve seen on a few occasions this year just how determined he can be, willing his way to the front of the field through sheer driver skill.
Kyle Larson, No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet
Playoff standings: 5th, 2,013 points
Key stat: Running at finish of just 11 races thus far – tied with J.J. Yeley, who has run … 11 races.
Best remaining track: Nashville (2.5 avg. fin., 1 win)
Analysis: If you’ve only watched certain races this year (Phoenix, Richmond, Martinsville, Kansas, All-Star Race) and missed some others (Atlanta, Bristol dirt, Talladega, Charlotte) you’d think Larson is far and away the championship favorite, in a class of his own. He honestly might be, but circumstances have relegated him to several race-ending wrecks so far. If those get cleaned up (or he gets, well, luckier) it legitimately might be his title to lose by a wide margin.
Chris Buescher, No. 17 RFK Racing Ford
Playoff standings: 14th, 2,001
Key stat: 9.0 average finish in last seven races before off week.
Best remaining track: Indianapolis Road Course (11.0 avg. fin.)
Analysis: Clearly among – if not the – most underrated drivers in the series, Buescher is rounding the corner on 300 Cup starts and has taken a huge leap forward this year as RFK gets its legs under it after a transition year a season ago. We saw him win a playoff race last year – as a non-playoff driver – and it makes you wonder if there’s potential for a dark-horse run here.
MORE: Chris Buescher unsatisfied with Sonoma top five: ‘I hate points racing’
Brad Keselowski, No. 6 RFK Racing Ford
Playoff standings: 13th, 2,001 points
Key stat: Current standings position (12th) slices in half his 2022 standings finish (24th, worst since 2010).
Best remaining track: New Hampshire (10.0 avg. fin., 2 wins)
Analysis: Keselowski might still be a tick behind Buescher, stats-wise, but the championship pedigree is there and you can feel comfortable knowing that when RFK eventually has race-winning cars, No. 6 will know how to land it in Victory Lane. The team is probably still a season away from potential title contention, but keep your eye on Kes.
Tyler Reddick, No. 45 23XI Racing Toyota
Playoff standings: 10th, 2007 points
Key stat: Five races where he scored fewer than 10 points.
Best remaining track: Indianapolis Road Course (11.0 avg. fin., 1 win)
Analysis: Though he – and his fledgling No. 45 team – are certainly still a work in progress, Reddick has shown on multiple occasions that he’s a superstar in the making. There are several strong tracks coming up for him before we hit the postseason and it’s not outrageous to think he could at least be tied for the series lead in wins come playoff time.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr., No. 47 JTG Daugherty Racing Chevrolet
Playoff standings: 12th, 2,005 points
Key stat: Has led just 11 laps since season-opening Daytona 500 win.
Best remaining track: Daytona (19.3 avg. fin., 2 wins)
Analysis: Already perhaps the best year of Stenhouse’s career – 2017’s two-win campaign being the competition here – Stenhouse has looked like a completely different driver. He’s competitive on road courses all of a sudden, for starters, and with plenty of those left and another shot at Daytona coming up, he could be riding some momentum heading into the fall.
Bubba Wallace, No. 23 23XI Racing Toyota
Playoff standings: 15th, 2,000 points
Key stat: On pace for a career-best 17.2 average finish.
Best remaining track: Daytona (13.0 avg. fin.)
Analysis: There have been more misses than hits this season, for sure, but the second half of the first leg of the regular season saw a Wallace that looked every bit as competitive as his fellow Toyota compatriots and Wallace should have every opportunity to extend his winning streak to three seasons in a row.
Alex Bowman, No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet
Playoff standings: 16th, 1,995 points
Key stat: All six of his top 10s came in the first seven races of 2023.
Best remaining track: Pocono (17.9 avg. fin, 1 win)
Analysis: Bowman has had one heck of an interesting season, leading just 47 laps so far, missing time with a broken back, notching no top 10s since Richmond … and despite all that, averaging a far-and-away career-best finish of 12.0. He’s still more than likely going to make the playoffs, and the speed is definitely there to take it all the way.
Daniel Suárez, No. 99 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet
Playoff standings: 17th, 328 points
Key stat: Has earned just two top 10s since Las Vegas after a career-high 13 total last season.
Best remaining track: Watkins Glen (12.0 avg. fin.)
Analysis: Man, there isn’t a soul out there that didn’t expect bigger things from Suárez and the No. 99 team in 2023 after a strong breakout campaign a season ago. There’s still plenty of racing to be had this year so a turnaround is possible, but he’s currently on the outside looking in in terms of the playoffs.
Ty Gibbs, No. 54 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota
Playoff standings: 18th, 320 points
Key stat: Has five top 10s in first 31 career Cup starts – one more than two of last year’s rookies (Harrison Burton/Todd Gilliland) had combined across their full season.
Best remaining track: Pocono (2.0 avg. fin. in NXS competition)
Analysis: Gibbs still doesn’t have quite a full season of Cup racing under his belt, and yet we’re starting to see some signs of a potential breakout over the summer. He’s been good at every level he’s raced in so far and it’s only a matter of time before it’s evident in Cup.
Michael McDowell, No. 34 Front Row Motorsports Ford
Playoff standings: 19th, 317 points
Key stat: Average finish has dipped significantly from a season ago (16.7 to 19.6).
Best remaining track: Daytona (20.6 avg. fin., 1 win)
Analysis: McDowell’s Cinderella campaign a season ago was remarkable and he’s had a few strong runs this year but overall his numbers are a bit down. Still many chances to win his way into the playoffs, however, with a few road courses and Daytona still on the docket.
AJ Allmendinger, No. 16 Kaulig Racing Chevrolet
Playoff standings: 20th, 298 points
Key stat: Ran 18 total Cup races in 2022, with an average finish of 15.4. In his return to full-time competition this year, it’s 19.9.
Best remaining track: Indianapolis Road Course (4.o avg. fin., 1 win)
Analysis: Allmendinger’s return to being a full-time Cup driver certainly had a lot of people – myself included – wondering if, because of all the road courses, he could potentially make a deep playoff run. With four left to go it’s definitely possible, but the No. 16 team has a ways to go.
MORE: Allmendinger analyzes ‘very technical’ Chicago Street Race course
Austin Cindric, No. No. 2 Team Penske Ford
Playoff standings: 21st, 292 points
Key stat: No top 10s since sixth race of the year, and just two total.
Best remaining track: Indianapolis Road Course (5.5 avg. fin.)
Analysis: Roger Penske expects his drivers to be competitive every weekend, and win often. That hasn’t quite been the case for Cindric in his sophomore season, as even his average finish (21.9) has tumbled from a season ago (16.3).
Corey LaJoie, No. 7 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet
Playoff standings: 22nd, 291 points
Key stat: One of just two drivers to finish every race in 2023.
Best remaining track: Daytona (18.8 avg. fin, three top 10s)
Analysis: LaJoie’s year-over-year progress has been steady albeit incremental, but he’s taken a good leap forward this year to the point he was even called in to substitute for Chase Elliott in the No. 9 for a race.
Justin Haley, No. 31 Kaulig Racing Chevrolet
Playoff standings: 23rd, 284 points
Key stat: Three top 10s just one shy of entire 2022 total, but on pace for a worse average finish (19.5 from 18.4).
Best remaining track: Daytona (17.2 avg. fin., 1 win)
Analysis: Haley could absolutely still shock the world and win his way into the playoffs at Daytona or something, but thus far it’s been a step back for Kaulig as a whole, himself included.
Todd Gilliland, No. 38 Front Row Motorsports Ford
Playoff standings: 24th, 279 points
Key stat: Had three top 10s in a five-race span from COTA to Talladega after two total during rookie year.
Best remaining track: Indianapolis Road Course (4.0 avg. fin.)
Analysis: Gilliland has turned a few heads this year after entering the year with some questions about his job status. He’s responded admirably and, though it’s not likely, it’s not out of the question to think he could steal a playoff spot somewhere.
Ryan Preece, No. 41 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford
Playoff standings: 25th, 269 points
Key stat: Zero top-10 finishes in 2023 despite being 11th in laps led count.
Best remaining track: Michigan (18.8 avg. fin)
Analysis: SHR as a whole (minus Harvick) has struggled a good bit the past several years, and Preece’s first season driving the No. 41 is no exception. Nowhere to go but up here.
Aric Almirola, No. 10 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford
Playoff standings: 26th, 260 points
Key stat: Averaging a 22.9 finish – worst since 2016 while driving for Richard Petty Motorsports.
Best remaining track: Richmond (14.8 avg. fin.)
Analysis: Though Loudon is where Almirola got his most recent win, he could be a sneaky guy to keep your eye on at Richmond. That said, Almirola’s decision to reverse course and return for another year is kind of a curious one at this point and he’ll need a major turnaround to make this year count.
Chase Elliott, No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet
Playoff standings: 27th, 247 points
Key stat: On pace for his worst average finish (13.6) since 2019 (15.1).
Best remaining track: Watkins Glen (5.7 avg. fin., 2 wins)
Analysis: Definitely not the kind of season Elliott would’ve drawn up if given the choice, but the 2020 champ is in no way out of contention at this point. It seems near impossible he won’t win one of the next 10 races and, quite honestly, I expect him to win a few of them.
MORE: How Elliott can surge back into 2023 postseason picture
Austin Dillon, No. 3 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet
Playoff standings: 28th, 223 points
Key stat: On pace for worst average start of career (21.1).
Best remaining track: Daytona (15.6 avg. fin, 2 wins)
Analysis: Dillon’s position in the standings has been sunk, to a degree, by a costly penalty but even still, his actual racing stats this year … not great. After looking like a stud alongside new teammate Kyle Busch at the LA Clash, Dillon has stumbled the first half of the season and it appears likely he’ll continue his history of alternating years of making/not making the playoffs.
MORE: Austin Dillon’s No. 3 Dow Chevrolet scheme for Atlanta unveiled
Harrison Burton, No. 21 Wood Brothers Racing Ford
Playoff standings: 29th, 219 points
Key stat: Nearly all of his standard stats (top fives, top 10s, avg. start/finish) are all on pace for worse showings than his rookie season last year.
Best remaining track: Indianapolis Road Course (3.0 avg. fin.)
Analysis: If you’re looking for strong year-over-year improvement, look somewhere else. The Fords, as previously mentioned, are having a down year and Burton has taken a step back in his sophomore campaign. Still plenty of talent here, but we likely won’t see it until at least next year.
Erik Jones, No. 43 Legacy Motor Club Chevrolet
Playoff standings: 30th, 190 points
Key stat: Averaging a career-worst 22.1 finish.
Best remaining track: Watkins Glen (11.2 avg. fin)
Analysis: Legacy Motor Club may be the biggest disappointment of the 2023 season after building a head of steam – and winning the Southern 500! – a season ago before injecting Jimmie Johnson into the ownership group. We later learned this is a transition year as the team will switch to Toyota next season, but, still, Jones has seen a tremendous drop-off after a strong 2022. Look for him to rebound in a big way next season.
MORE: TRD president says Johnson ‘will be racing a Toyota Camry’
Chase Briscoe, No. 14 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford
Playoff standings: 31st, 183 points
Key stat: On pace for career-worst 19.8 average finish.
Best remaining track: Watkins Glen (17.0 avg. fin., 1 top 10)
Analysis: There was a three-race stretch earlier this season where Briscoe looked quite good. That has since become a distant memory, with no finish better than 17th since those three straight top fives. The book isn’t closed on a playoff appearance here, but he has obvious work to do.
Ty Dillon, No. 77 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet
Playoff standings: 32nd, 146 points
Key stat: Just one finish inside the top 20 this year.
Best remaining track: Daytona (21.2 avg. fin, 1 top 5)
Analysis: Certainly not the kind of season Dillon was hoping for in his first run with Spire, very much on pace for his worst career average finish (28.5).
Noah Gragson, No. 42 Legacy Motor Club Chevrolet
Playoff standings: 33rd, 143 points
Key stat: Just one finish inside the top 20 this year.
Best remaining track: Daytona (20.0 avg fin, 1 top 5)
Analysis: Being a rookie in the Cup Series is hard, but Gragson dominated at the Xfinity Series level last year and is most definitely a better driver than this season has shown thus far. Better days are ahead for him after he re-enters the Toyota fold next year.