Advance to Victory Lane: Byron moves past Truex to the top of projections

Kyle Larson won both short-track races on pavement this season, but for him to make it three in a row, he’ll likely need to get past teammate William Byron on Sunday at Richmond Raceway (3 p.m. ET, USA, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App). Byron moved past Martin Truex Jr. and to the top of the prediction board by leading practice on Saturday and qualifying sixth. Meanwhile, Truex will start 10th and Larson will roll off 14th.

Despite a strong Saturday, Byron will still have his work cut out for him if he is to nab his fifth victory of the season. That’s because Joe Gibbs Racing leads all organizations with 18 wins at Richmond, and in the last nine races at the 0.75-mile oval, Truex has three wins among his eight top-10 finishes. But a win would be big for Byron, who trails Truex by 30 points in the race for the regular-season championship.

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Larson did win here earlier in the season, to go along with his other short-track victory at Martinsville Speedway. Joey Logano is the only other driver besides Larson who has enjoyed a top-10 finish in both short-track races this season. Sunday figures to be another hotly contested race in the NASCAR Cup Series.

OTHERS TO WATCH

TYLER REDDICK: Reddick starts on the pole and leads a strong group of Toyotas. He hasn’t led a lap yet at Richmond, but Sunday figures to break that streak.

DENNY HAMLIN: Hamlin is coming off his dramatic 50th Cup win last week at Pocono Raceway. Plus, he has four career victories at Richmond.

KEVIN HARVICK: Harvick won here last year for Stewart-Haas Racing, the most recent of his 60 Cup Series victories, and he has four career Richmond wins.

KYLE BUSCH: He leads active drivers with six victories at Richmond and has completed all but one lap in his 35 Cup races at Richmond (14,028 of 14,029 laps in the 35 races).

CHRISTOPHER BELL: The driver of the No. 20 Toyota leads active drivers with an average finish of 5.67 at Richmond (for drivers with three or more starts).

Projections as of Sunday, July 30.

RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE COOK OUT 400

Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results.