Since winning consecutive road course races last season, Tyler Reddick has become an expert at the craft. He’s elevated 23XI Racing’s – along with Toyota’s – road course program in 2023 and is among the pre-race favorites each time the Cup Series turns left and right. 23XI Racing topped everything on Saturday at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval, whether it be single-lap speed (Bubba Wallace, more on him in a bit) and five- and 10-lap averages with Reddick. Entering the race two points below the elimination line, Reddick will be chasing points, but he has a fast enough car to outright win.
Dustin Albino’s race-day lineup:
Starter 1: Tyler Reddick
Starter 2: AJ Allmendinger
Starter 3: Chase Elliott
Starter 4: Ty Gibbs
Starter 5: Kyle Busch
Garage pick: Daniel Suárez
NEXT IN LINE: Michael McDowell, Bubba Wallace, Joey Logano, Martin Truex Jr.
RISING: After advancing to the final round of qualifying, Wallace pumped his fists and hit his steering wheel with joy. He walked over to Reddick and greeted him with excitement, satisfied by what the duo achieved. Road-course racing has been a work-in-progress for Wallace, but he continues to improve. Some of that has been from following Reddick around the track in practice, finding ways to maximize speed. This was the best the No. 23 Toyota has looked on a road course yet and Wallace will start fourth.
With how inconsistent Suárez has been in 2023, it can be hard to remember that he’s a top road course driver. His lone win at the Cup level was at Sonoma. That inconsistency has bled over to road courses in 2023, however, with just one top 10 finish (Indianapolis) in six starts. The good news for Suárez, Saturday looked a lot like Indy when he was among the best cars in the field. The only difference is, he will start from the second row and not from the pole.
FALLING: It wasn’t the start to the Round of 12 elimination weekend that Kyle Larson wanted. In the waning minutes of Group A practice, the No. 5 car slipped as Larson transitioned out of the infield section of the course back onto the oval when he pounded the wall. Larson drove straight to the garage for the Cliff Daniels-led team to assess the damage. It was deemed enough to go to a backup car. Larson enters the race with a 15-point buffer over the elimination line.
Surprisingly, McDowell is the only driver to fall from my lineup that I had earlier this week. The No. 34 Ford lacked speed relative to every other road course race this season in which McDowell accumulated the most points. Still, he wheeled his car to 13th in qualifying, which isn’t bad for the speed deficit he looked to have. Hopefully, taking him out isn’t a mistake, but there seemed to be more potential of other non-playoff cars such as Suárez, Allmendinger and Gibbs.
FEATURED MATCHUPS:
Kyle Busch vs. Ross Chastain
Aside from Reddick, Busch might have won the day when it comes to championship contenders. The chances of Busch leaping four drivers in points, plus making up 26 points on the elimination line are extremely slim. That means he’s going after the win and crew chief Randall Burnett can play his strategy accordingly. Chastain had average speed, qualifying 12th. It’s been a rough postseason for Busch, but I’m sticking with him this weekend.
Tyler Reddick vs. Kyle Larson
Who would have thought that the Roval, a track in which Larson won at in 2021, would bite the No. 5 team two seasons in a row. Hendrick Motorsports had Larson’s primary car transported down the road to its campus to remove parts and pieces and assemble them onto the backup car. So, you’re thinking Larson, in a car he has no laps on at the Roval is going to outrun the pole winner? Not going to happen.
Bubba Wallace vs. Brad Keselowski
As noted in Fastlane this week, Wallace has my trust more on road courses. His improvement at these tracks shouldn’t go unnoticed, while Keselowski continues to have middle-of-the-road numbers. That pace won’t get Keselowski out of the Round of 12, so the 2012 champion might need to hope for chaos.
William Byron vs. Ryan Blaney
With only Elliott advancing to the final round of qualifying from Hendrick Motorsports, it was a slightly disappointing afternoon for Hendrick. The No. 24 Chevrolet laid down a better qualifying lap than Blaney, though, as Byron will start 14th to Blaney’s 17th-place starting position. Having advanced to the Round of 8, neither driver has anything to lose. And though Blaney is tied with Logano and Alex Bowman for the most top 10s in track history (four), Byron won the last race on a road course.