Editor’s note: Race projection has been updated after Saturday’s practice and qualifying session. Notable changes include William Byron moving up from fourth to second, Ty Gibbs moving into the top 10 and Kyle Busch dropping out of the top 10.
The Cup Series returns to Pocono Raceway on Sunday after a wet and wild contest on the streets of Chicago that saw Alex Bowman beat the clock to end an 80-race winless streak.
The name to watch out for this week is Denny Hamlin. The No. 11 driver has won seven races at Pocono, and Racing Insights predicts he will extend his all-time record to eight wins this weekend in the Great American Getaway 400 (2:30 p.m. ET, USA Network, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App). Hamlin has shown to be a master around the “Tricky Triangle,” leading laps in each of the last nine races at the circuit. He’s also the betting favorite to win outright.
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Plus, Joe Gibbs Racing has had tremendous success at the Long Pond tri-oval, earning the most poles (4), race wins (7), runner-ups (4), top fives (22), and leading the most laps (789) at Pocono Raceway since 2017.
The cards are in Hamlin and JGR’s favor, but Kyle Larson and the No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports team are right behind at a projected third-place finish. The two drivers shared an aggressive battle late in the final stage at Pocono last year and continue to have run-ins throughout this season. With how well both teams have run at Pocono in the Next Gen era and the fact both are looking to be the first driver with four wins in 2024, it feels as though another Hamlin-Larson battle is coming.
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It’s also worth pointing out that Larson has finished second to Hamlin six times, and on each occasion, the pair has finished 1-2. Could he really stomach the feeling of being on the wrong side of a 1-2 finish with Hamlin again?
With six races left in the regular season, it’s also crunch time for the rest of the field to try to earn a spot in the playoffs. It leaves the door open for a new winner to be in Victory Lane on Sunday.
OTHER DRIVERS TO WATCH:
TY GIBBS: It’s almost a bit surprising Gibbs hasn’t won yet. He started the year finishing in the top 10 in five of the first seven races but has only added four in the 13 races since. He has an 84-point cushion but could find his way into trouble as the season winds down. As mentioned earlier, JGR comes to perform at Pocono, and four drivers have earned the first Cup win at the track. Could Gibbs become the fifth?
CHRIS BUESCHER: Five of the last eight races have been won by drivers who got their first win of the season. Three of those five entered the race as the last driver above the elimination line. Chris Buescher now moves to 16th place in the playoff standings after Bowman’s win in Chicago. He did score his first Cup win at Pocono, so it will be interesting to see if he can lock himself in and continue the trend.
BUBBA WALLACE: It sure is getting interesting below the elimination line. Wallace needs a turnaround at Pocono, a track where most Toyotas tend to perform better than the other manufacturers. Wallace should have a chip on his shoulder to score points to help his chances of making the playoffs for the second straight year.
TODD GILLILAND: Gilliland has put together consistent races in the thick of the season. He hasn’t finished outside the top 20 since Dover and is gaining more and more traction as a possible dark horse to surprise the field and score a win. He finished 15th at Pocono last year, and with the step forward he’s taken this year, that result should improve.
ERIK JONES: Pocono is one of Jones’ best tracks. He has five top fives — tied for his most at a track. Jones has also scored top-10 finishes in eight of the last 12 Pocono races, with his last two races there resulting in a pair of ninth-place finishes.
RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE GREAT AMERICAN GETAWAY 400 PRESENTED BY VISTPA.COM
Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results.
| Finish | Car Number | Driver |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | Denny Hamlin |
| 2 | 24 | William Byron |
| 3 | 5 | Kyle Larson |
| 4 | 9 | Chase Elliott |
| 5 | 19 | Martin Truex Jr. |
| 6 | 6 | Brad Keselowski |
| 7 | 45 | Tyler Reddick |
| 8 | 48 | Alex Bowman |
| 9 | 54 | Ty Gibbs |
| 10 | 12 | Ryan Blaney |
| 11 | 20 | Christopher Bell |
| 12 | 8 | Kyle Busch |
| 13 | 22 | Joey Logano |
| 14 | 23 | Bubba Wallace |
| 15 | 99 | Daniel Suárez |
| 16 | 43 | Erik Jones |
| 17 | 17 | Chris Buescher |
| 18 | 34 | Michael McDowell |
| 19 | 1 | Ross Chastain |
| 20 | 3 | Austin Dillon |
| 21 | 38 | Todd Gilliland |
| 22 | 16 | AJ Allmendinger |
| 23 | 2 | Austin Cindric |
| 24 | 47 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 25 | 10 | Noah Gragson |
| 26 | 14 | Chase Briscoe |
| 27 | 4 | Josh Berry |
| 28 | 21 | Harrison Burton |
| 29 | 7 | Corey LaJoie |
| 30 | 41 | Ryan Preece |
| 31 | 51 | Justin Haley |
| 32 | 42 | John H. Nemechek |
| 33 | 31 | Daniel Hemric |
| 34 | 77 | Carson Hocevar |
| 35 | 71 | Zane Smith |
| 36 | 15 | Cody Ware |
| 37 | 44 | J.J. Yeley |