From what was expected entering the Round of 12 elimination race at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval, not much has changed. Sure, I’ve replaced a couple of non-playoff drivers in my lineup, but the teams that were expected to be up front in both categories … were.
Road-course powerhouse Shane van Gisbergen scored his first Busch Light pole award at the Cup level, while AJ Allmendinger continued his unbelievable track record at the new-look, 17-turn re-configuration. Add in the likes of Tyler Reddick, Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson rising to the occasion on Saturday, and there are no real surprises in my lineup.
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Dustin Albino’s race-day lineup:
Starter 1: Shane van Gisbergen
Starter 2: Tyler Reddick
Starter 3: AJ Allmendinger
Starter 4: Chase Elliott
Starter 5: Kyle Larson
Garage pick: Joey Logano
NEXT IN LINE: William Byron, Austin Cindric, Kyle Busch, Bubba Wallace
RISING: Bubba Wallace continued his recent surge of performing better on road courses. The No. 23 Toyota ranked seventh in the second practice session on Saturday and advanced to the final round of qualifying. It was this race last year where Wallace turned in his best road-course effort to date. Don’t be surprised if he ups the ante on Sunday.
Who would have thought that Brad Keselowski would carry RFK Racing on a road course thus far at the Charlotte Roval? The No. 6 Ford advanced to the final round of qualifying for the second time this season on a road course (Chicago). With the reconfiguration and how drivers attack the Charlotte road course, it races similarly to a street course. Keselowski has just one top-10 finish in the last 22 road course events, so I’m keeping him out of my lineup. But the No. 6 car had a quality Saturday and it’s worth mentioning.
FALLING: It’s been a long time since Chris Buescher struggled this mightily on a road course. The No. 17 Ford ranked 23rd and 26th in the two practice sessions, respectively, and qualified 29th. Last month at Watkins Glen International, Buescher played strategy and sliced through the field from a 24th-place starting position to score his lone victory of 2024. Don’t count Buescher out, but take him out of your lineup.
Jumping on to the Cup scene over the last two years, Ty Gibbs has put together convincing performances on road courses. He finished fourth at the Charlotte Roval last season and has a pair of additional top fives while turning left and right in 2024. Gibbs was mired outside the top 20 in both practice sessions and qualified 19th. I’ve dropped Gibbs from my lineup, knowing his strategy will be chasing his first victory on Sunday. There are other drivers in the same boat that simply looked better during practice and qualifying.
FEATURED MATCHUPS:
Austin Cindric vs. Chase Briscoe: Cindric narrowly missed my starting lineup and, entering the elimination race 29 points below the bubble, the road-course ace is convinced he’s in a must-win scenario on Sunday. Briscoe is even further back in the standings at 32 points out and is fully chasing the win, believing that makes the No. 14 team’s strategy easier than if he were closer to the elimination line. Cindric has a better car this weekend — one that could potentially win the race.
Joey Logano vs. Daniel Suárez: We highlighted Logano’s impressive Roval numbers in Fastlane earlier this week. That speed translated to this weekend as he ended final practice in fourth and backed that fourth-place effort up in qualifying. Suárez was solid, hovering around 15th in both practices and qualified 13th. Sitting 13 points behind Elliott, who has two prior victories at the Roval, puts Logano in an interesting position from a strategy standpoint, but I’m sticking with the No. 22 Ford.
Chase Elliott vs. Tyler Reddick: Reddick missed his second consecutive pole at the Charlotte Roval by 0.057 seconds, but he was best in class among playoff drivers. However, Elliott bested Reddick in both practice sessions and qualified seventh. This seems like it’s about as even of a matchup as you could ask for, so I’m keeping Reddick as a slight favorite, who has outrun Elliott in three consecutive Roval races.
Alex Bowman vs. Christopher Bell: Based on Bowman’s statistics at the Charlotte Roval (top-10 finishes in all five starts), it might behoove you to keep the No. 48 Chevy out of your lineup. Plus, he’s on a postseason heater, scoring the most points through the first five races. I dropped him from my lineup, however, and believe Bell might move to the slight favorite in this matchup. Though Bowman did win the Chicago Street Race with the right strategy, Bell has been in the mix to win multiple road courses this season — and won here in 2022.