Charlotte Roval Turning Point: How many Hendrick drivers will land in the Championship 4?

Sure, William Byron hasn’t won a race since the first week of April, but hey — he’s the first and only driver locked into the Round of 8 as the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs roll into a Round of 12 elimination race Sunday at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval.

Nothing is ever set in stone here, but with wins at each of the three Round of 8 tracks in the past three years, Byron’s chances at this point to make the Championship 4 for a second straight year are as good as a driver can hope to have at this point.

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With one driver not sweating on Sunday and the other three all above the elimination line, it begs the question — how many from Hendrick Motorsports’ quartet advance to not only the Round of 8, but also the Championship 4?

Two (Byron and 2021 champ Kyle Larson) made it last year, so anything fewer would be a disappointment, but is three on the table? Is four?

Chase Elliott is a past champion and has been one of the season’s most consistent performers, while Alex Bowman has been arguably the best driver in the playoffs, halfway home to a surprising emergence as a serious title contender.

Right now, though, No. 24 stands out as the only playoff driver locked into the Round of 8 after navigating the chaos at Talladega unscathed. His season has been remarkable, albeit streaky, and the way the Round of 8 sets up for him will make him a tough out for his competitors.

But the most interesting twist to the playoffs has been Bowman.

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The No. 48 driver’s postseason surge has emerged as one of the most compelling narratives this fall, after the midsummer rumor mill had some in the garage (incorrectly) questioning his 2025 status at Hendrick. Since then, all he’s done is lead the playoffs with 189 points through five races — 13 more points than any other driver — increasing his average points per race from 25.6 in the regular season to 37.8 in the playoffs. The 12.2-point increase is the third-largest jump among drivers in the stage era, and he’s likely to pad that even further this weekend, as Bowman leads all drivers with 146 points earned on road courses this season.

A 26-point buffer isn’t “safe” by any means, but given how much Bowman has going for him heading into arguably his best track, we can probably pencil him in for the Round of 8. The question from there becomes: will he make his first Championship 4? Right now, it’s easier to make the case that he will than he won’t.

Despite facing uncertainty heading into Talladega, Kyle Larson remains a strong candidate for a Championship 4 berth after escaping the mercurial superspeedway with a top five. The 2021 champion’s performance this season has been characterized by resilience and speed — and dominance. The five-time 2024 winner continues to be the odds-on favorite to win the 2024 title, and as one of the best road racers in the sport we can probably expect him in the Round of 8, too. He’ll be licking his chops to get to those Round of 8 tracks as well, and there’s a legit shot Hendrick drivers sweep that round outright.

Elliott’s position heading into Charlotte is perhaps the most intriguing among Hendrick drivers as the sport’s most popular driver looks to regain footing atop the stock-car racing world after missing the playoffs entirely last year. Elliott also hasn’t won since April and, though he’s found some consistency throughout most of the season, enters the weekend as the last driver in with a relatively flimsy 13-point cushion after a subpar Talladega result.

Then again, there aren’t many situations you’d feel more comfortable in than with this driver at this track in terms of advancing, so expect the only two-time Roval winner to do at least enough to advance, if not take the trophy home himself.

So, wait — that’s one driver already in the Round of 8, with the other three having extremely good chances to join him … meaning we could see Hendrick drivers making up half of the Round of 8. And, remember, that’s a Round of 8 that sets up quite nicely for all four of them.

Again, the smart money is on at least two Hendrick drivers — Byron and Larson probably being the safest bets — making this year’s Championship 4. Don’t for a second count out Bowman, though, as his playoff performance has been nothing short of revelatory. And Elliott has felt on the precipice of dominance all season; it wouldn’t be the biggest shock to still see him win more than one race the rest of the way en route to his second title.

Whether it’s two, three, or even an unprecedented sweep of spots in the Championship 4, Hendrick is poised to be in serious contention to add another Bill France Cup to its arsenal. The most impressive thing, though, with just five weeks remaining in the season?

You get the sense any of them could do it.