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November 2, 2024

What to Watch: Elimination stakes, tire strategy in focus in Martinsville rubber match


Xfinity 500

(⏰ Sunday, 2 p.m. ET | NBC | NBC Sports App | MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio)

Weekend schedule | TV schedule | Weather tracker | NASCAR 101

Location: Martinsville, Virginia
Track length: 0.526 miles
Race purse: $8,991,338
Race distance: 500 laps | 263 miles
Stages: 130 | 260 | 500

Starting lineup: Martin Truex Jr. lands pole position
Pit stall assignments:
See where drivers will pit
Defending winner:
Ryan Blaney, October 2023

Key things to watch

Saturday sessions

Martin Truex Jr. made a sweeping statement in Saturday’s on-track time, putting his No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota in the top starting position in Busch Light Pole Qualifying, backing up his chart-topping speed from an extended NASCAR Cup Series practice at Martinsville Speedway.

Truex turned a best final-round lap of 96.190 mph in qualifying, as Hendrick Motorsports teammates Chase Elliott (95.840) and William Byron (95.951) completed the top three. The 44-year-old veteran’s 24th career Cup Series pole was his second straight in Martinsville’s fall event.

Truex was also best in single-lap speed and the consecutive 10-lap averages in a 45-minute practice session, a longer tune-up to give teams more experience with a new tire combination. JGR teammate Denny Hamlin was far less fortunate in the session when his No. 11 Toyota crashed midway through practice because of a stuck throttle. Hamlin will start at the back of the 37-car field. | Full Saturday recap

Big story line

Tire twists of fate in elimination showdown

The postseason stakes are sky-high in Sunday’s Xfinity 500, where the Cup Series Playoffs field will be trimmed from eight drivers to its final four championship-eligible contenders for the Bill France Cup on Nov. 10 at Phoenix Raceway. The wrinkle to this pivotal moment in the season is a trend that continues in Sunday’s showdown, a gravitation to softer-compound Goodyear rubber on short tracks.

Tire management, uncertainty and shifts in strategy may well be on the table for the crucial last race in the postseason’s Round of 8. Teams will use Goodyear’s “option tire” as the right-side standard that was used in earlier events at North Wilkesboro and Richmond. On the left side, Goodyear officials indicated that new rubber billed as the “softest” in its portfolio will be the tire of choice.

“It’s a new tire again this time around, so there’s a lot of unknowns,” Paul Wolfe, crew chief of Team Penske’s No. 22 Ford for Joey Logano, said in a Thursday media availability. “You look at who was successful there in the spring, the Hendrick (Motorsports) cars were very good, but track conditions will likely be different, and the tire will be different as well. So it’s about the teams that can adapt to that will be the ones on top. I think there’s a lot of opportunity for strategy to mix things up and that’s the part that makes it tough, right? You can have the best car, you can have a top-five car, but all it’s going to take is one caution at the wrong time for you, and it’s going to flip things up and make it really interesting. So as a fan, I don’t think you could be more excited about going into the weekend.”

Goodyear tires for the Xfinity 500 with Martinsville Speedway's wall and logo in the background
Alejandro Alvarez | NASCAR Digital Media

Teams were provided with extra practice time to put the new tire combination to the test, but the early hope was that the variables of wear and enhanced short-term grip could alter the race’s strategy. According to Cliff Daniels, crew chief for Kyle Larson’s No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet, the tire and aerodynamic packages in recent races at Martinsville haven’t necessarily placed a premium on falloff, and he suggested that a gamble for four fresh tires might not have offset the loss in track position. That could change in race conditions Sunday.

“I hope it does present options,” Daniels said. “I hope we’re able, if it’s a run of even 20 (laps) to go or whatever, I hope you get to see the mix of stay out, rights and four. I think that would be a really good environment for the sport, where you have the guys that are going to have to defend, and the guys that are going to be able to attack, and then, of course, somewhere in between.”

Only Las Vegas victor Logano and last week’s Homestead-Miami winner Tyler Reddick have playoff immunity with already-clinched berths for the Phoenix finale. Two more spots are up for grabs: Christopher Bell and William Byron are on the plus side of the bubble, and Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney and Chase Elliott face deficits.

Byron, Larson and Elliott went 1-2-3 for Hendrick Motorsports in the most recent Martinsville race back in April, but a handful of playoff crew chiefs suggested that the approach for Sunday’s 500 was to start from scratch.

“I mean, completely,” said Adam Stevens, crew chief for Bell’s No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota. “We do have laps on this right-side (tire), but not Martinsville laps, and how will the tires behave. Even if you understand a little bit about the tire, you’re taking it to a new place. It’s a new surface, a whole different set of conditions. Obviously, the way you go fast around Martinsville is different than the way you go fast around Richmond. So you start over. It completely changes what an optimal setup will be, and once we get there, there’s not a lot we can change. So you kind of make your bed when you load that thing in the truck, and then you’re just fine-tuning. So it is a game-changer when you have a new tire.”

History tells us…

High hopes for the remaining half-dozen. Two drivers — Joey Logano and Tyler Reddick — have clinched their Phoenix finale spots by virtue of their victories earlier in the Round of 8. For the remaining playoff-eligible six, they’re all bound by a common thread besides their Championship 4 aspirations: All are former Martinsville winners.

Denny Hamlin leads the playoff pack with five Martinsville triumphs, but his winless drought here is also the longest. He last captured Martinsville’s grandfather clock trophy in 2015. For perspective, six of that day’s top 10 finishers have since retired from Cup Series competition (Matt Kenseth, David Ragan, Danica Patrick, Kevin Harvick, Jeff Gordon and Jamie McMurray).

Hamlin’s 37th-place starting spot has some history working against it as well. Only once in Martinsville history (151 Cup Series races) has a driver started outside the top 30 and won. Kurt Busch drove from 36th to victory here in October 2002.

No single manufacturer has a clear upper hand in recent events at Martinsville, but Chevrolet boasts a strong trend of four wins here in the last six races. The automaker has the opportunity to clinch the manufacturer’s championship for the 43rd time in Sunday’s 500-lapper.

He may not be the betting favorite to win, but watch out for…

CHASE BRISCOE. Just two races remain for Briscoe’s efforts under the Stewart-Haas Racing banner, but his chances for a solid showing at Martinsville are high. The No. 14 Ford driver has scored five consecutive top-10 finishes at the 0.526-mile track, a streak shared only by Team Penske’s Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano — both former Martinsville winners.

Briscoe’s average finish of 7.4 in that five-race span is fourth-best among all Cup Series drivers, making his 22-1 opening odds an intriguing spot on the board. He starts a commendable fourth in Sunday’s event. | Martinsville odds

Speed reads

Our biggest pieces of the week — get covered for race day from all angles.

– Fantasy Update: Hung throttle drops Denny Hamlin, Hendrick Motorsports surging | Read article
– Lasting legacy:
A tribute to the SHR No. 4 team’s defining excellence | Read article
– Blaney’s reflection:
No. 12 driver ‘lost some sleep’ over Homestead finish | Read article
– Bell’s path on points?:
JGR driver says ‘nothing’s guaranteed except for wins’ | Read article
– Bubble Watch:
Three former Cup champs aiming to sew up spots | Photo gallery
– Turning Point: Historic moments in the making at Martinsville | Read article
– Hamlin’s hindrance:
Midseason setback has lasting effect on title race | Read article
– Crucial timing:
Pivotal 14-minute span at Homestead tilted the playoffs | Read article
– Playoff-time projections: Racing Insights predicts finishing order for Martinsville | Read article
– Clinch scenarios:
Drivers’ pathways to advance in Round of 8 finale | Read article
– No. 23’s new chief: Charles Denike tapped to guide Wallace in 2025 | Read article
– Power Rankings:
Chase Elliott aims to churn up 2020 vibes | Photo gallery
– NASCAR Betting: Big board of favorites, dark horses for Sunday | Photo gallery
– 36 for 36: This week’s survivor pool picks for Martinsville | Read article
– Fantasy Fastlane:
Prime time for playoff bubble drivers to excel | Photo gallery
– Memorable moments: All-timers from Martinsville’s rich history | Photo gallery
– NASCAR Classics: Rewind with a three-pack of Martinsville favorites | Read article
– Paint Scheme Preview:
Down to the wire with fresh designs | Pick your favorite

Fast facts

Race-relevant statistics, brought to you by the experts at Racing Insights.

All four Hendrick Motorsports drivers have scored Martinsville wins in the last eight races here.
Kyle Larson leads the Cup Series in wins (6), stage wins (12) and laps led (1,616) this season.
Nine Cup Series drivers have broken a winless skid of 42 races or more this year, most in a single season.

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