Is it Groundhog Day for Ryan Blaney?
That’s how it seems to a top Las Vegas oddsmaker, who prices Blaney as the favorite to win Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series Championship at Phoenix Raceway.
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Blaney claimed last year’s Cup Series title with a second-place finish at Phoenix after earning his way into the Championship 4 by taking the checkers at Martinsville, the final race in the Round of 8. He needed a win again this year at Martinsville Speedway to give himself a chance at another championship.
“It just feels like Groundhog Day because last year was the same thing. He had to win, and he won,” Ed Salmons, vice president of risk at Vegas’ Westgate SuperBook, told NASCAR.com this week. “That’s just so hard to do.”
With a stellar record on short, flat tracks in general and at Phoenix in particular, and competing for a team that has been fast all season, Blaney is poised to repeat. In fact, Team Penske has two chances to win its third-straight title as Blaney is accompanied by 2022 champ Joey Logano in the final four.
Salmons opened Blaney as the +300 favorite (3-to-1 odds) to win at Phoenix and has him at +175 to win the championship by finishing ahead of the three other contenders — Logano, William Byron and Tyler Reddick.
Christopher Bell is the outlier at the top of the oddsboard. Despite being out of contention for the title, Bell is the second betting choice at +400. Ross Chastain’s victory at Phoenix last year marked the first time in the 10-year history of the current playoff format that the final race was won by a driver not among the Championship 4.
As far as the title contenders, Byron is +500 at the SuperBook to win the race and +280 for the championship, and Logano and Reddick are priced equally at +700 for the race and +350 for the title.
Here are the odds to win Sunday’s Phoenix race from three sportsbooks (Salmons anticipates these numbers moving based on qualifying, especially if one of the four finalists earns the No. 1 pit stall — “one of the biggest pit stalls in all of NASCAR,” he says):
| Driver | SuperBook | DraftKings | BetMGM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Blaney | +300 | +400 | +310 |
| Christopher Bell | +400 | +500 | +525 |
| William Byron | +500 | +600 | +475 |
| Joey Logano | +700 | +650 | +600 |
| Tyler Reddick | +700 | +750 | +700 |
| Kyle Larson | +1400 | +800 | +900 |
| Denny Hamlin | +1400 | +1200 | +1400 |
| Ross Chastain | +1800 | +1600 | +1800 |
| Chase Elliott | +1800 | +2200 | +1600 |
| Brad Keselowski | +3000 | +4000 | +4000 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +3000 | +2200 | +2200 |
| Chase Briscoe | +4000 | +3500 | +3500 |
| Ty Gibbs | +5000 | +3000 | +3500 |
| Chris Buescher | +5000 | +4000 | +4000 |
| Kyle Busch | +10000 | +3500 | +5000 |
“It almost looks too simple sometimes,” Salmons said. “You can never forecast a loose wheel or when a problem will happen — obviously that’s the thing about motorsports, anything can happen at any time where it can affect your race results. But if the race plays out in a true fashion, speed-wise, you would think it’s Blaney and Byron as far as the playoffs.”
Salmons’ book faces liability on a Blaney title, and he acknowledges pricing the No. 12 Ford so short partly to discourage action.
“If this was just race, I would probably have him and Bell [priced equally],” Salmons said. “He’s definitely a little bit lower based on the championship race.”
How should bettors play Blaney?
Blaney backers may be enticed to bet him to win Sunday’s race rather than in championship futures since the potential payout is larger. After all, in nine of the 10 years of this playoff format, one of the four championship drivers won the final race, so why not shoot for the larger profit?
Quantitative NASCAR analyst Jim Sannes, however, sees value on Blaney in odds to win the championship.
“My sims have Blaney winning [the title by finishing ahead of Byron, Logano and Reddick] 35.8% of the time, well clear of his 28.6% implied odds [+250 at FanDuel],” Sannes, managing editor at FanDuel Research, said in a direct message. “He’s up there due to his great track history, the speed in Martinsville, and how good he was at both Gateway and Iowa earlier this year.
“As a result, I’d much rather back Blaney to win the championship than the race just because there’s such good value here, and it means I don’t have to deal with Bell and others.”
While bettors should always shop at multiple sportsbooks to find the best odds for their wagers, Sannes’ 35.8% projection translates to +179 odds. Theoretically, there’s value in any price better than that, so Blaney is not a recommended championship bet at +175.
Should bettors consider a non-contender at Phoenix?
A respected bettor in Las Vegas bet Bell at Salmons’ opening price of +500, prompting the move to +400 at the SuperBook.
“I was surprised at this,” Salmons said. “I know Bell won the first race here, and I thought I opened him low at five.”
Even though Chastain won last year’s Phoenix race, Salmons believes there’s a certain courtesy paid by non-contenders to the drivers trying to win the championship.
While he’s not opposed to wagering on a driver outside the Championship 4, Sannes thinks Bell is overvalued in this spot.
“I’m open to betting a non-championship driver, but I’d want more forgiving odds in order to do so,” Sannes said. “Chase Elliott at +1900, specifically, is enticing, given it would require a very specific running order for him to back off and help Byron. I haven’t bet Elliott and am unlikely to do so, but he would be the one guy who would intrigue me there.”
Marcus DiNitto manages a sports betting partnership with The Sporting News. NASCAR is one of the many sports Marcus enjoys wagering on. Follow him on Twitter; do not follow his picks.