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May 4, 2025

Racing Insights: Does Byron take another win, or will a new victor emerge at Texas?


Austin Cindric became the 10th different winner in as many Talladega races last weekend and the sixth different winner this season through 10 races, raising the question of whether we will see another new winner Sunday at Texas Motor Speedway (3:30 p.m. ET, FS1, PRN Radio, Sirius XM NASCAR Radio).

RELATED: Texas weekend schedule | Qualifying order, more info

Eight different drivers have won the last eight races at the 1.5-mile Fort Worth-based track; same goes for a different winner in each of the previous six intermediate track races. There’s also been pure chaos at Texas in recent years, with the last four races producing 11 or more cautions. All of which reads like the perfect recipe for a new driver to master the melees and snatch their first win of the season.

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But then there’s William Byron.

He not only has been routinely the driver to position himself late to win, but he’s also been the most consistent driver through 10 races. His average start (10.3) and average finish (8.5) rank best among all drivers – and now he’s qualified second for today’s race.

Byron is also the only driver out of this year’s “Big 4” not to have multiple wins (Bell: Three, Larson: Two and Hamlin: Two). He may not need the wins, since he’s been in control of the driver standings since Circuit of The Americas, but it never hurts to stack playoff points. With Texas being one of his best tracks, it makes Sunday’s race a good chance for him to earn another win.

OTHER DRIVERS TO WATCH

ALEX BOWMAN: Bowman has been an automatic top 10 threat in the last seven intermediate races, with an average finish of 6.1 over that span. Hendrick Motorsports also has won three out of the last four Texas races. The only concern here is he has just two top 10s at the track in 15 starts.

TYLER REDDICK: Yes, Reddick has a Texas win from 2022 and wouldn’t continue the new winner streak, either. But he’s yet to find Victory Lane this year, and like Byron, this is a strong track for him. He has four top 10s in six starts at the facility and has four top 10s this year.

CHASE BRISCOE: Another driver who’s been solid at Texas, Briscoe has finished in the top 15 in all four of his starts at the track, with the last three visits resulting in top 10s. He’s also starting to find rhythm with the No. 19 team, scoring top 10s in three of the last five races.

BUBBA WALLACE: The No. 23 driver has emerged as a serious contender this season. His 94 stage points are the second-most by a driver this year, and he has the best-rated pit crew, per NASCAR Insights.

DANIEL SUÁREZ: The first mile and a half race saw Suárez vie for the win and finish runner-up. He has five career top 10s at Texas, finishing fifth in this race a year ago. More importantly, he has three top fives in the last eight races on 1.5-mile tracks.

RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE WÜRTH 400 PRESENTED BY LIQUI MOLY

Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results. Updated on race day with practice and qualifying factored in.

FinishCar NumberDriver
124William Byron
25Kyle Larson
311Denny Hamlin
445Tyler Reddick
520Christopher Bell
648Alex Bowman
79Chase Elliott
817Chris Buescher
923Bubba Wallace
1077Carson Hocevar
1119Chase Briscoe
1222Joey Logano
1354Ty Gibbs
1412Ryan Blaney
1516AJ Allmendinger
162Austin Cindric
178Kyle Busch
181Ross Chastain
1999Daniel Suárez
206Brad Keselowski
214Noah Gragson
2243Erik Jones
2371Michael McDowell
243Austin Dillon
2560Ryan Preece
2621Josh Berry
277Justin Haley
2838Zane Smith
2947Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
3010Ty Dillon
3142John Hunter Nemechek
3241Cole Custer
3334Todd Gilliland
3435Riley Herbst
3588Shane van Gisbergen
3651Cody Ware
3762Jesse Love
3866Chad Finchum

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