Racing Insights: Can anyone topple Hendrick, JGR’s oval dominance?

If Dover taught us anything last weekend, it’s that Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing are the cream of the crop again in 2025 — and it may not be close.

The two organizations racked up the top six spots at the “Monster Mile” and led all but 20 of the 407 laps.

Outside of Shane van Gisbergen on road courses, no one outside of Hendrick or JGR has trekked to Victory Lane since Team Penske’s Ryan Blaney at Nashville Superspeedway on the first day of June.

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With pit strategy and gambles likely to play a massive role at Indianapolis on Sunday (2 p.m. ET, TNT Sports/truTV, HBO Max, IMS Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), there’s plenty of opportunity for a different team to break the oval streak of the two powerhouses. But who can do it? Let’s take a look at projections for Sunday with stats provided by Racing Insights.

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Hamlin tops the predicted results sheet for Indianapolis, even after practice and qualifying – when he wrecked his No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota. The Brickyard 400 is the lone crown-jewel Cup Series event the No. 11 Toyota driver has yet to conquer. If he’s to break through on Sunday, he’d become just the fifth driver to do so — joining Jeff Gordon, Dale Earnhardt, Jimmie Johnson and Kevin Harvick. Fortunes weren’t so good for Hamlin last year as he was caught in a multicar incident on an overtime restart and was scored with a 32nd-place finish.

The top five stays within trends for this year as JGR-affiliated Tyler Reddick, defending Brickyard 400 winner Kyle Larson and his Hendrick Motorsports teammates William Byron and Chase Elliott round out the top five in the race-day updated projections.

Reddick led the most laps (40) in last year’s Cup return to the 2.5-mile oval and was runner-up to Larson. The No. 5 Hendrick Chevrolet driver and 2021 series titleholder capitalized on Brad Keselowski opting to pit from the lead before the first overtime restart that ultimately led to Larson grabbing the point and holding off Reddick and Blaney in the remaining laps.

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OTHER DRIVERS TO WATCH

CHASE BRISCOE: Can’t go to Indianapolis Motor Speedway without mentioning the Hoosier himself. Twenty years removed from Tony Stewart’s rousing victory at his home track, Briscoe will try to accomplish the same, and he’s been on a hot streak lately with runner-up results in the last two weekends. He also won the pole on Saturday – his third crown-jewel pole of the season and fifth overall.

BUBBA WALLACE: The No. 23 23XI Racing driver holds the final spot in the playoffs by 16 points over Ryan Preece after a crucial top-10 finish at Dover. Even better for Wallace is that his short history on the Indianapolis oval has been fruitful with three top 10s in four starts — including a top five last year where he led 26 laps.

BRAD KESELOWSKI: If the race finished at its 160-lap distance last year, Keselowski would’ve kissed the bricks for a second time with a thrilling fuel-mileage run to the checkered flag. Alas, a caution came out, stifling hopes of the No. 6 taking the win, but it should make the 2012 champ a viable threat to win Sunday and steal a postseason bid in the final run to the 10-race playoffs.

TODD GILLILAND: Gilliland has quite the short history at Indianapolis with a career-best effort in his Cup tenure coming on the road-course layout in 2022 (fourth). He then put together a sixth-place performance last year in his first Cup start on the 2.5-mile oval. The No. 34 Front Row Motorsports driver needs any momentum he can muster, and another big result at Indy could do just that.

RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE BRICKYARD 400

Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula incorporates current track, track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to predict a projected winner and provide full race results. Updated on race day with practice and qualifying factored in.