Racing Insights: Stars aligning for a Blaney three-peat at Martinsville

Editor’s note: Race projections were updated after Saturday’s practice and qualifying sessions.

It all comes down to Martinsville Speedway if you want to make the Championship 4. The penultimate race of the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season is always one for the books, and Sunday’s event (2 p.m. ET, NBC, Peacock, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) should be no different.

Joe Gibbs Racing has the high ground after Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe snagged half the tickets punched for Phoenix to race for the Bill France Cup so far, and teammate Christopher Bell is the highest in points of the remaining playoff drivers without a win. However, lurking beneath the surface are four hungry drivers with accomplished pedigrees at the Virginia short track, all looking to win their way in walk-off fashion to make it to the Championship 4.

Will the fall Martinsville trend of favoring walk-off winners continue, or will Hamlin sweep the year at his home track? Before cars hit the half-mile, let’s dig a little deeper with stats provided by Racing Insights.

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All eight playoff drivers fill out the top eight projected finishing results, with Hamlin predicted to back up his victory at Martinsville in the spring. It makes sense as Hamlin has a whopping 9.8 average finish at the short track across 39 starts and has led 100 or more laps in five of the last nine Cup races there. He’s also scored top fives in five of the last six events, bookended by that March triumph.

However, having punched his ticket to the Championship 4 already with his 60th career win at Las Vegas Motor Speedway two weeks ago, it’s tough to see the No. 11 driver focus on Sunday with all eyes toward going for that elusive Cup title a week later.

Looking at prior years with Martinsville as the cutoff race in the semifinal round, only one driver has finished inside the top five at the track after winning earlier in the round — that was Joey Logano with a third-place result in the 2020 fall race. With no added incentive except for a grandfather clock added to his home decor, you may want to look elsewhere for a winner on Sunday.

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Hello, Ryan Blaney — once again. Only one time has a driver not won from beneath the cutline at Martinsville to reach the Championship 4, and that was non-playoff driver Alex Bowman in 2021. The No. 12 Team Penske driver is responsible for the last two Martinsville playoff victories, the first of which culminated in his crowning as series champion in 2023. Blaney’s had a rough go of it since his New Hampshire victory to make the Round of 8. He’s finished outside the top 10 in every race since, with a best finish of 13th at the Charlotte Roval. But the Martinsville numbers are very good for Blaney, as he’s finished no worse than 11th dating all the way back to the spring of 2019.

William Byron, Chase Elliott and Logano are all below the Championship 4 cutline as well, and all are prior Martinsville winners, most recently the No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports driver in the spring of 2024.

Byron is due some luck after a pit stop without warning from Ty Dillon in front of him derailed him at Las Vegas, and a last-lap spin through the tri-oval at Talladega stymied him to must-win territory at Martinsville, down 36 points to teammate Kyle Larson.

After a string of tepid runs at Martinsville from 2021-2023, Elliott has gotten hot at the short track with three consecutive top fives. He knows a thing or two about winning in walk-off fashion, as he won the 2020 fall race that culminated in his lone Cup title.

As for Logano, you can’t count him out either. The three-time series champ is a top-10 machine at Martinsville. His last result outside the top 10 at the Virginia track? The spring of 2019.

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DRIVERS TO WATCH

BUBBA WALLACE: In the Gen 7 car, Wallace has been quite good at Martinsville with an average finish of 9.9. He’s finished fourth or better in two of the last three races at the track.

ROSS CHASTAIN: The No. 1 Trackhouse Racing driver has a well-known history at Martinsville, most notably the iconic “Hail Melon” move out of desperation that sent Chastain to the Championship 4 in 2022. Chastain enters the short track looking for his third straight top 10.

RYAN PREECE: The driver of the No. 60 RFK Racing Ford is starting to build some momentum going into 2026. He plated top 10s at the Roval and Las Vegas before coming home 15th at Talladega. Martinsville is a place where the short-track ace feels at home, and he’s coming off a seventh-place run in the spring.

TODD GILLILAND: The fourth-year Cup driver hasn’t had the season he would have wanted, but broke through with a career-best runner-up performance at Talladega. Gilliland isn’t too shabby at Martinsville with a pair of top 10s — most recently in the spring.

AUSTIN DILLON: It was a swift exit from the playoffs, but Dillon has a knack for strong performances at short tracks. He owns a third-place finish at Martinsville in the Gen 7 car (2022) and finished seventh in the playoff race last fall.

RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR XFINITY 500:

Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula incorporates current track, track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to predict a projected winner and provide full race results. Updated on race day with practice and qualifying factored in.

*(P) denotes playoff driver