Track: Martinsville Speedway
Location: Martinsville, Virginia
Track length: 0.526 miles
When: Sunday, 2 p.m. ET
Where to tune in: NBC, Peacock, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App
Race purse: $9,797,935
Race distance: 500 laps | 263 miles
Stages: 130 | 260 | 500
Defending winner: Ryan Blaney, November 2024
Starting lineup: William Byron on pole at Martinsville
Hendrick Motorsports’ Championship 4 prospects hinge on Martinsville
MARTINSVILLE, Va. — Hendrick Motorsports has typically treated Martinsville Speedway as a friendly place, competition-wise. All four of the organization’s drivers have won here in the NASCAR Cup Series, and another victory Sunday would mark its 30th Martinsville victory — padding the team’s series-leading tally.
This time around, the stakes go beyond statistics, superlatives and the organization’s rich Martinsville history.
Postseason implications abound in Sunday’s Xfinity 500, the final race in the Cup Series Playoffs’ Round of 8. Four drivers will be eliminated from playoff contention, while the other four will move on to vie for the Cup Series championship in the season finale Nov. 2 at Phoenix Raceway.
How many Hendrick Motorsports drivers make that title-shot trip remains among the top questions for Sunday’s 500-lap showdown. William Byron, Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson are all clinging to eligibility, but only two available spots remain. Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe snapped up two berths with Round of 8 wins the last two weeks, so Hendrick’s count of Championship 4-bound drivers could be two, one or at worst zero, depending on how Martinsville plays out for the organization that has had at least one championship-race qualifier each year since 2020.
MORE: Schedule, TV info: Martinsville | Cup Series entry list
Hendrick Motorsports has five victories in the last 14 Martinsville events, but the two other operations that hold out playoff hope this weekend have made some inroads. JGR has also won five races in that span, and Team Penske has four Martinsville wins in that stretch, including two straight from Ryan Blaney in the Virginia short track’s annual fall clash.
All three Hendrick Motorsports playoff drivers endured varying degrees of hardship last weekend at Talladega, between Byron’s last-lap spin, Larson’s final-lap fuel flutter and Elliott’s Stage 1 crash-out. The organization will have at least one odd man out after this weekend’s battle. With NASCAR’s winningest team heading to one of its traditional strongholds, here’s a driver-by-driver look at each of their prospects, listed in order of their percentages of advancing, according to statistical clearinghouse Racing Insights.
Kyle Larson (81.8%): As the only Hendrick driver above the provisional elimination line (by a plus-36 margin), Larson holds the best hope of the three for landing in Phoenix with title dreams intact, and he bolstered that by qualifying third Saturday. He also holds a hefty history of strong Martinsville performances in his favor, including a remarkable series-best average finish of 3.2 in the last six races here, with top-six finishes for the No. 5 Chevrolet in all of them.
Larson is currently fourth in the playoff standings, just one point behind Christopher Bell. That positioning creates an intriguing subplot, with each of those two longtime challengers needing to stay in front of the other, protecting against another winner below the cutline from knocking them out. All four drivers below the cut are former Martinsville winners, so that danger is real.
Chase Elliott (9.6%): Elliott’s last-place finish at Talladega leaves him in the playoffs cellar, 62 points below the elimination threshold and needing a win to stay in postseason contention. Martinsville could very well be a welcoming place for that: His lone win here served as a late-hour springboard to his Cup Series title campaign in 2020.
“Things haven’t really gone the way that we want them to, and it’s easy to feel sorry for yourself,” said No. 9 crew chief Alan Gustafson. “But that just doesn’t do any good. There’s no real value in that. So I think everybody understands that, and I can speak for myself and how I try to influence a team, but I think you still have a lot of opportunity, right? I mean, we’ve got a lot of opportunity to come in here and race for a win, and it’s best to spend that effort focusing on that. And I’m excited to be able to do it.”
His more recent record here suggests that the potential is there again for the No. 9 Chevy team, which led the way in Saturday’s practice session. Elliott’s last three Martinsville events have resulted in top-four finishes, and no Cup Series driver has earned more points in that stretch.
William Byron (8.5%): The Regular Season Champion’s points advantage has taken a pair of hard hits in the Round of 8 — a fluke crash at Las Vegas that dropped him below the cutline and a last-lap Talladega spin that knocked the rest of the stuffing from his playoff cushion, leaving him minus-36 loading into Martinsville.
Byron has won twice in the last seven races here, but those results are his only top-five finishes during that period. He’ll have a clear view at the green flag Sunday, starting from the pole position after topping the qualifying pack Saturday. Making the Championship 4 field for the third straight year will hinge on him righting the No. 24 team’s course in a hurry; his two top 10s in the playoffs are the fewest of the current postseason field.
RELATED: Full Saturday recap from Martinsville
From atop the pit box …
What do crew chiefs have in focus to win Sunday’s race?
It’s been 15 years since one driver has swept both Martinsville races in a single season, dating back to Denny Hamlin’s double-up in 2010, lending credence to the prevailing thought that spring-seasonal dominance here doesn’t necessarily translate to similar performance in the fall.
“Yeah, I think that’s been the same way for as long as I’ve been going there,” says Rudy Fugle, crew chief for William Byron’s No. 24 Chevrolet.
This time, though, two key differences stand out. Teams will come to grips in Sunday’s race with a new, softer-compound left-side Goodyear tire, one that should promise advanced wear and place a premium on tire management and strategy. The race will also stretch from the springtime 400-lap distance to a traditional 500-lapper, with all three stages longer to match.
RELATED: Playoff standings before Martinsville | Full 2025 schedule
The move to softer tire compounds follows a recent trend, and this setup emerged from a Goodyear tire test at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in July. Three months later, the combination is set to be used in much chillier conditions, with a daytime high barely cresting 60 degrees in the southern Virginia hills.
“It’s more just a wait and see, and we’ll see what the track temps are like and how it behaves when it rubbers in,” said James Small, crew chief for Chase Briscoe’s No. 19 Toyota, earlier in the week. “But obviously, same construction as what we’ve been using, but just slightly softer compound. I know the guys that did the Loudon Goodyear tire test, including (teammate) Christopher (Bell), they got a run on these tires. So we have some general feedback on how it compared to what we previously raced. So yeah, not expecting a huge amount of difference, just maybe a little more wear and falloff.”
A pair of 25-minute practice sessions in the cooler temps as Saturday’s sun set offered at least a glimpse. The track rubbered in slightly, and Byron speculated that warmer weather from a 2 p.m. ET start may help promote that. Hamlin gave the new tire setup a glowing initial review, saying practice felt like turning the clock back 15 years to a decidedly old-school feel.
That degree of wear and tire management will also be impacted by the length of Sunday’s race, 100 laps longer than when the Cup Series last visited here in March. In the spring, the stage breaks came at Laps 80 and 180 with the full distance at 400; Sunday’s event has stages ending at Lap 130, Lap 260 and a full 500 laps scheduled. With longer runs potentially in the pit-strategy mix Sunday, unloading fast or dialing in the setup quickly is paramount.
“It certainly does,” said Adam Stevens, crew chief for Bell’s No. 20 Toyota, “and then you factor in that new tire combination with the softer left side, you would think that they’re going to wear out quicker, and them wearing out quicker and then having longer runs, if you don’t have an opportunity in practice to run out the full 25 minutes and see how it really behaves, because maybe you need an adjustment or maybe the caution comes out because of some other reason, and you just can’t have a full understanding of that, chances are you’re going to acquire a full understanding of that when the race starts.
“We’ve seen in the past there, gosh, I can’t remember what year it was where I want to say one of the Penske cars started on the pole. This was not this era of car but the previous car, and we had some kind of tire change, and they got lapped on the first run. I think everybody was surprised at the degradation and the wear, and the track didn’t take rubber, and once the race started, you didn’t have a lot of tools to work on it, and certainly didn’t have any tools until the caution came out, and it really puts you in hang-on mode. That is a distinct possibility at Martinsville, especially with the temps that we’re going to have and a little bit of unknown with the new tire. So you hope that you unload close and you hope you have an opportunity to go out there and put 60 or 70 laps on your tires in practice and really develop some kind of understanding of what you’re really up against.”
RELATED: See where drivers will pit for Sunday’s race
History tells us …
The advantage we think it is? Typically, the first pit stall — the one nearest pit lane’s exit — is the prime choice for top qualifiers. While an unhindered pit-road egress is still a competitive edge, it hasn’t translated recently to victory since pit stall No. 1 is winless in the last 24 Martinsville races. That same span has also been a dry spell for pole winners. The last driver to win from the pole position (and the first pit-road stall) is Jimmie Johnson, who led 346 of 500 laps in the STP Gas Booster 500 in April 2013.
He may not be the favorite to win, but watch out for …
BUBBA WALLACE. The focus will naturally be on the eight drivers with playoff eligibility, but one of the Round of 12’s ousted pilots may have an opportunity to play spoiler. Wallace has finished among the top 10 in four of the last six Martinsville races with an average finish of 8.8 in that span, and he ran third in the Cup Series’ most recent trip here, capping off a 1-2-3 Toyota sweep. The 23XI Racing veteran has also won twice here in the Craftsman Truck Series, rolling to his first NASCAR national-series win back in 2013. He was also fourth-fastest overall in Saturday’s Cup Series practice. | See Wallace’s projected finish
Fantasy update
NASCAR Fantasy Live expert Dustin Albino provides insight for your Sunday lineup.
Five hundred laps around Martinsville is an eternity, but select Round of 8 drivers might need every one of them to be in the mix. Before turning in a stunning 31st-place starting position, Ryan Blaney couldn’t pinpoint why the No. 12 team has historically struggled to qualify well at Martinsville. Needing to win at Martinsville to advance to the Round of 8 will put Blaney’s long-run pace to the test. There’s a good chance he misses out on stage points entirely, but he had one of the best long-run cars, cracking the top three in 20- and 25-lap averages. That’s a category Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson dominated during practice. William Byron scored his third Busch Light Pole Award of the season and has moved into my lineup over Christopher Bell, who was grappling with his No. 20 Toyota during practice. I’m keeping Denny Hamlin out of my lineup with only one use left, and the No. 11 team also had starter issues when hitting the track for qualifying.
Lineup: Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, William Byron, Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney
Garage: Chase Briscoe
MORE: Lineup advice in Fantasy Fastlane
Speed reads
Our biggest pieces of the week — get covered for race day from all angles.
– NASCAR at Martinsville: Key info, qualifying reports and more | Read more
– Bubble Watch: Three JGR drivers on the plus side of playoff picture | Read more
– Paint Scheme Preview: Fresh designs set for short-track showdown | View gallery
– Rivalry evolution: Larson on how competitive nature with Bell pushed him | Read more
– Hauler Talk: Martinsville a penultimate race worth monitoring | Read more
– A legend’s legacy: Remembering Richie Evans’ Modified mastery | Read more
– Fresh grip: Goodyear debuts new left-side tire for Martinsville | Read more
– At-track photos: Trackside sights, scenes from Round of 8 finale | View gallery
– Turning Point to Martinsville: JGR’s prospects for a Phoenix triple play | Read more
– Power Rankings: Sizing up the eight postseason hopefuls | This week’s ranks
– Neil Paine: Larson, Bell safe in the standings … to a point | Read more
– NASCAR Classics: Inside the video vault with Martinsville full-race replays | Watch now
– Playoff Pulse: Who’s hot, who’s not ahead of Martinsville | Read more
