Racing Insights: Will road-course aces continue dominance at COTA?

Racing Insights’ projection model has crunched the numbers, recent track trends, team strengths and past history to forecast Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series road-course race at Circuit of The Americas (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), and for a slew of road-course aces, the metrics suggest great things are in store.

Following Saturday’s qualifying session — with Daytona 500 and EchoPark Speedway winner Tyler Reddick capturing Busch Light Pole — the data suggests the usual road-course suspects are expected to make a play for the Texas-sized victory. Here is how the field currently stacks up heading into the bout at the 2.4-mile Austin, Texas, track.

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DRIVERS TO WATCH

SHANE VAN GISBERGEN: Though the No. 97 Trackhouse Racing pilot is starting in a relatively mortal position to begin Sunday’s contest (13th), the metrics still believe the New Zealand native will find Victory Lane. Look no further than recent history to make such a claim; van Gisbergen has won the last five road-course races, and his average finish of 7.58 turning left and right is second-best all-time among drivers with four-plus starts, with NASCAR Hall of Famer Fireball Roberts (2.78) the only exception. Should he emerge victorious, van Gisbergen will be only the second driver to win six consecutive road-course races. The other? Jeff Gordon from 1997-2000. Will immortality be achieved?

CHRISTOPHER BELL: Of course, if there is a driver who could usurp the Kiwi at COTA, it could very well be the driver who bested him there for the win last season. The No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing driver will start Sunday in eighth, and though Bell has two career COTA finishes outside the top 30, he’s been nails otherwise, tallying three top-three results at the facility. Bell’s 18 laps led at COTA additionally rank sixth among active drivers.

RYAN BLANEY: The 2023 Cup Series champion arguably turned the most heads during Saturday’s on-track action, with the No. 12 Team Penske Ford tallying the second-fastest practice time and keeping momentum through qualifying, earning a fourth-place starting position. Whether the 32-year-old superstar can translate Saturday’s success to a Sunday triumph, though, remains to be seen; Blaney is on a 24-race streak without a top-five finish on road courses and has never finished inside the top five on a left- and right-turning circuit in the Next Gen era.

FULL PROJECTED RESULTS FOR 2026 DURAMAX TEXAS GRAND PRIX POWERED BY RELADYNE (3:30 P.M. ET, FOX)