Another race weekend, another race win for Chase Briscoe, with the No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota capturing the honors at Charlotte Motor Speedway for his second consecutive triumph in The Chase presented by Mobil 1.
Last week’s “Last Call” installment saw our NASCAR.com experts discuss the Indiana native and his ability to go on a Tony Stewart, circa 2011, title run, with the panel collectively agreeing that, while not mathematically impossible, it was going to be a tough hill to climb, even with another race win or two.
RELATED: Charlotte results | Cup Series standings
This week, the discussion revolves around a fellow Joe Gibbs Racing teammate: Denny Hamlin. The 64-time Cup Series victor, who entered The Chase as the No. 1 overall seed with four 2026 wins already in the books, still hasn’t found Victory Lane six contests into this year’s postseason. What is the biggest obstacle between Hamlin and more triumphs? Our insiders give their answers here.
What’s the biggest thing standing between Hamlin and his first Chase win?
Zach Sturniolo: The key separation so far, in my opinion, has been the No. 11 team itself — including the driver. Nearly all of Hamlin’s postseason rockiness can be traced back to mistakes on pit road, questionable pit calls or errors on the track. The Chase opener at Darlington Raceway set an ominous tone for Hamlin’s postseason: Hamlin led 68 laps before a slow pit stop during the Stage 2 break dropped him midpack, leading to contact that put Hamlin in the wall, damaging his Toyota and sinking him to an 18th-place finish. The decision to pit from the lead at Lap 45 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway allowed championship points leader Kyle Larson to take the wave-around and get back onto the lead lap, and Hamlin later spun trying to make up the difference in spots lost behind the wheel. Top fives at Kansas and Charlotte were good, not great, and simply lacked the winning speed his teammates have shown. In short, the entire No. 11 team needs to produce cleaner races in order to win any of these final four races.
Pat DeCola: The biggest thing? The 49-point deficit … but the number itself isn’t nearly as troubling as when Hamlin accumulated it. No. 11 squandered his pre-Chase points buffer almost immediately, but still left Bristol in good shape, just one point behind Larson. Then came Kansas, Las Vegas and Charlotte — three consecutive 1.5-mile tracks, easily the No. 11’s greatest strength this season and tailor-made for him to clean up — and he emerged from that stretch in a much larger and deepening hole. Hamlin is capable of winning at each remaining track, and has, but the schedule already handed him perhaps his best opportunity to take control of this thing with a win or two, and instead he spent it going backward. That dials the pressure up to *ahem* 11, and he may find himself grinding so hard over the next four races that mistakes continue to mount on both the track and pit road — as another victory eludes him.
Zack Albert: While tempting to say Kyle Larson, team execution or any measure of self-induced pressure, the answer is nothing. It’s been well-documented how momentum in stock-car racing rides in waves — on top one week, in the doldrums the next. Witness Tyler Reddick’s 2026 campaign for a prime example of how quickly a head of steam can evaporate for a driver who looked like a world-beater a quarter of the way through. Hamlin has spoken in recent weeks about needing a bit extra speed here, a smidge of execution clean-up there, but there seems to be no single, glaring factor that’s blockading the No. 11 team’s path to Victory Lane. The four remaining Chase races will be held at venues where Hamlin has won multiple times. Breaking up that postseason shutout seems inevitable.
Dustin Albino: As Sturniolo pointed out, in-race execution has been the biggest dagger for the No. 11 team since the start of The Chase. Hamlin has consistently surrendered points to the competition — Larson alone has outscored him by 104 points over the six-race stretch — whether through self-inflicted mistakes or pit-road miscues. Beyond closing the gap to Larson, he now has to fend off Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Christopher Bell and Chase Briscoe, both of whom have shown more speed during the three-race intermediate swing. All that is in the past, though, and Hamlin still has four races remaining to snap a four-month winless drought. It would surprise few if he rattled off multiple victories down the stretch, though surviving Talladega remains a potential wild card in his championship pursuit.
Cameron Richardson: Hamlin has curated a whopping resume of postseason shortcomings that only the NFL’s Buffalo Bills and NHL’s Toronto Maple Leafs can rival. Looking at last year’s finale and now six races deep in the 2026 Chase, it simply comes down to unforced errors from the No. 11 driver and team. Both share accountability in why Hamlin has failed to hoist the Cup Series title in his otherwise illustrious 20-year career. Pitting at Las Vegas during Stage 1 with current points leader Larson a lap down is likely going to be the gaffe that costs Hamlin another golden opportunity. Hamlin’s results have been good, but he’s missing the one thing Larson and the No. 11’s teammates Bell and Briscoe all have — a win. Phoenix redemption can flip the script entirely, but both driver and crew are not showing the fortitude right now to overcome 49 points and take this championship.