After Toyotas absolutely dominated the first three races of the 2025 Cup Series Playoffs, that narrative was reset somewhat at New Hampshire Motor Speedway last Sunday. Ford drivers Ryan Blaney and Josh Berry finished the race 1-2, and Chevy powered five of the top nine cars in the final running order — limiting Toyota to just one of those slots, with Christopher Bell in sixth place.
RELATED: Loudon results | Playoff standings
That’s why Joey Logano, Kyle Larson, Blaney, Chase Elliott and William Byron — not a Toyota in the bunch — saw the five biggest gains in playoff advancement odds according to our forecast model (which uses projected Driver Ratings to simulate the playoffs 10,000 times). Meanwhile, the list of drivers who lost probability was Toyota-heavy, with the most notable dips belonging to the 23XI rides of Tyler Reddick and Bubba Wallace:

For the non-Toyotas, and especially the Chevrolets, it was a much-needed show of force to restore their status as championship front-runners. And nobody in the Chevy camp may loom larger as a title threat if he gets rolling — especially with Kansas Speedway, a favorite hunting ground of his, coming up next — than Larson.
Larson’s 2025 season has been tough to gauge at times. It started as good or better than any other in recent memory, with the No. 5 car claiming victory in three of the season’s first 12 races — a 25% win rate — with an average finish of 9.8, an Adjusted Points+ index of 240 (i.e., 140% better than Cup average) and an average Driver Rating of 102.6. All four figures were tracking to be Larson’s most dominant showing since winning the sole Cup Series title of his career to date in 2021:

But that period — which officially ended with a 21st-place run in the All-Star Race — gave way to a series of diminished results for Larson, starting with his second straight Double attempt at the Indianapolis 500 and the Coca-Cola 600. After finishing 18th at Indy in 2024 but missing his window to hop in the car at Charlotte before rain shortened the race, this time around Larson crashed out of Indy early (finishing 24th) but started on time in Charlotte — and led 34 laps — before eventually crashing out of the Coke 600 as well, finishing 37th.
Afterward, Larson said he was finished pursuing the fabled Indy 500/Coke 600 Double. (“Logistically, it’s just really, really tough,” he said.) But his slump in Cup was just getting started.
Ever since his disappointing run at Charlotte, Larson has recorded an uncharacteristic zero wins and only three top fives in 18 starts, with an average finish of just 17.4 (14th among active drivers), an Adjusted Points+ index of 125 (12th) and a Driver Rating of 82.8 (10th). While he’s still flashed some vintage Larson dominance on the odd occasion — he has five races with a rating of 100 or higher over that span, which is more than fellow active playoff drivers Wallace, Logano, Reddick, Austin Cindric and Ross Chastain — he’s also finished 28th or worse six times, with five runs outside the top 31.
How unusual is all of this for him? To find another stretch of 18 consecutive races where Larson only posted three top fives, we’d need to return to July 2019, back when Larson was still driving the No. 42 car for Chip Ganassi Racing (which feels like an eternity ago). For a driver who’s usually easy to pencil in as the title favorite — even if he doesn’t always convert those chances to championships — it was startling to see Larson as merely OK, not elite, for any extended period of time.
That uncharacteristic ennui might be starting to recede, however, in recent weeks. Larson posted a 107.1 Driver Rating at Loudon, his second 100-plus rating in the span of three races. Granted, those were sandwiched around a bad 60.5 at Bristol, but that dud was Larson’s only outing that didn’t grade as a 90 or better in the past five races, the first time that was true since before his rough Double attempt. Along similar lines, his five-race rolling average Driver Rating of 92.7 — while still not as dominant as earlier in the season (when he was averaging marks as high as 115.5 over five races) — is the highest it’s been since early June, when his midseason slump was just a few weeks old.

The odds are good that Larson builds further on that momentum this week at Kansas, too. This is a track where Larson is the defending winner from the spring, and he’s also won two of the past three races held here. In the Next Gen era (since 2022), Larson easily leads all current Cup drivers at Kansas in winning percentage (28.5%), average finish (6.3), Adjusted Points+ index (271) and Driver Rating (111.4):

Unsurprisingly, that record — along with Larson’s historical success at similar tracks like Las Vegas — explains why he rates as a runaway favorite at this Sunday’s Hollywood Casino 400 Presented by ESPN Bet (3 p.m. ET, USA Network, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App) according to my track-similarity-based projection system. If Larson has the performance he’s capable of here, it could reset the playoff conversation in a hurry.
No, Larson likely wouldn’t quite be the title favorite even if he wins Sunday; his odds in the forecast model would rise to 16.0% in that eventuality, but current favorite Ryan Blaney would hold relatively steady at 21.0%. Still, a strong run at Kansas would put the rest of the playoff field on notice. If they’d gotten comfortable with Larson being just another good-not-great driver to tangle with while running in the high teens, those days could well be over soon — and they may have to start bracing for the usual championship-caliber version of Larson all over again.






