Posted on by Track Release

CONCORD, N.C. (June 23, 2019) – Amid ongoing preparations to become “ROVAL™-ready” for the second running of the historic Bank of America ROVAL™ 400 on Sept. 27-29, Charlotte Motor Speedway officials on Sunday announced groundbreaking changes to the 2.28-mile road course oval’s backstretch chicane.

An expanded configuration of the challenging chicane will create additional passing opportunities and more side-by-side action — increasing the drama and raising the stakes throughout all 17 turns of the revolutionary course that will conclude the first round of the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series playoffs. The chicane’s original layout was 32 feet wide at its widest point, while the new version will be 54 feet at its widest point and will feature additional runoff areas which were unavailable in its first iteration.

Speedway operations staff, who execute the oval-to-ROVAL™ switch, moved back parts of the inside wall near oval Turn 3 to accommodate more on-track space for the updated chicane.

RELATED: Buy tickets for the Bank of America ROVAL 400

Charlotte New Chicane Inset 2
Rendering courtesy of Charlotte Motor Speedway

“The Bank of America ROVAL™ 400 is all about excitement and creating memorable moments for our fans,” said Marcus Smith, the president and CEO of Speedway Motorsports, Inc. “Having our backstretch chicane upgraded will give drivers an additional opportunity to go for a season-making or season-breaking pass like we saw on the frontstretch chicane last year. Every turn matters on the ROVAL™.”

The new turns will require heavier braking and a sharper entry, but a wider radius promises to provide drivers with the ideal mix of risk-taking opportunities and a slightly increased margin for error on exit — if the driver’s entry is correct. The track distance and turn count will not be affected by the new layout, which featured input from NASCAR drivers Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney and Justin Allgaier, as well as former Formula 1 racers Alex Wurz and Max Papis.

Construction on the chicane began this week and is expected to conclude in early August.

In addition to the restructured backstretch chicane, speedway officials also announced an increase in race distance for the Sept. 28 NASCAR Xfinity Series race. The 200-kilometer, 55-lap event will become the 250-kilometer, 67-lap Drive for the Cure 250 presented by Blue Cross Blue Shield of North Carolina. In a Sunday press conference, the track revealed the stages for that race would be 20-20-27.

Posted on by Nick Giffen

The Action Network specializes in providing sports betting insights/analytics and is a content partner with NASCAR. Check out more NASCAR betting analysis here.

The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series (MENCS) heads to Sonoma Raceway for the first road course race of the 2019 season. In an added twist, this will be the first time since 1997 that the series races on the full 2.52-mile layout, which includes the “Carousel” section, instead of the 1.99 mile layout used the past two decades.

Sonoma is a very technical road course, much slower than its longtime counterpart on the Cup schedule, Watkins Glen.

An important note: Do not overvalue overall road course performance when betting this race. All of my top performing statistical models show that overall road course performance is not a significant predictive factor.

Instead, track history at Sonoma far outweighs performance across all the road courses (including the Charlotte Roval which was run for the first time in last year’s playoffs). Other top factors in my models include both short and long-run speed in practice, and year-to-date performance across all races.

One other major factor that is not predictive of finishing position or winning: starting position. Since 2005, eight of the 14 winners have started 10th or worse, including two drivers winning despite starting in the 30s.

On the flip side, only two drivers have won from the front row (both starting second), and only four drivers starting inside the top five have won. If books overreact to qualifying, this is an opportunity to jump on some value from elite drivers staring mid-pack, or fade subpar Sonoma drivers starting toward the front.

With that in mind, let’s look at the top futures bets for Sunday’s race, including some very surprising odds for the driver who sits atop my model.

Clint Bowyer +2500 to Win

First, I should note that at multiple sites across the industry, there are some egregious lines. This is one of them.

Bowyer is a former Sonoma winner, and the favorite to win the race according to my top two statistical models. One of the models looks at predicted average finish, and Bowyer leads that with a projected average finish of 6.0 over 10,000 simulations of incident-free races.

To show you how far ahead Bowyer comes, Kurt Busch is second with an average finish of 6.7. The other model only looks at probability to finish top three, and Bowyer again leads the field with a 59.4% chance in incident-free races.

Bowyer has a strong track history, with seven straight top-10 finishes if you remove his one race driving for the underfunded, and now-defunct HScott Motorsports. Six of those seven finishes were also in the top five. Bowyer paved the way in 10-lap speed in final practice, nearly 0.4 mph per lap quicker than second place.

Bowyer is at +1600 at DraftKings, and +650 at William Hill and +600 at Westgate. Bowyer is not being priced as the favorite, but he should be with the favorites at around +500 per my model.

I am betting him at anything above +2500, but will also probably throw in a +650 bet at William Hill (or hold out for +700) at a book where the lines aren’t out of whack.

Jimmie Johnson +340 to Win Group C

  • Brad Keselowski +190
  • Daniel Suarez +325
  • Ryan Blaney +330
  • Jimmie Johnson +340

According to my model, Keselowski and Johnson are neck-and-neck in regards to average finish, with Keselowski edging out Johnson with a projected average finish of 9.59 to 9.63 — a statistical tie. Blaney and Suarez come in significantly behind at 10.9 and 13.8 respectively.

So what does Johnson have going for him this weekend? He has raced at Sonoma 17 times, with 15 incident-free races under his belt. In each of those 15 races Johnson finished 17th or better. Notably, in the higher downforce era of the Gen-6 car, he’s finished ninth, sixth and seventh, while Keselowski has struggled to finishes of 21st, 22nd, and 19th. Keselowski has finished ahead of Johnson once in nine tries at Sonoma.

Looking at on-track activity this weekend, Johnson practiced fourth and 15th, while Keselowski was 19th in both sessions. Johnson did not make a 10-lap run, but Keselowski was seventh out of 19 drivers who ran at least 10 consecutive laps. Blaney and Suarez were 13th and 15th in that category. Only Blaney posted better single-lap times than Johnson, but not by much. Johnson’s far superior track history is a bigger factor.

Johnson should actually be the favorite in this group with Keselowski slightly favored over Blaney and Suarez in a clear fourth. I’d bet Johnson down to +250. My model shows it’s also a profitable long-term play to bet both Johnson and Blaney in this group at these prices and hope either one beats Keselowski.

Other Futures Bets

There are a bunch more futures bets that are very out of whack when compared to my model:

  • Martin Truex Jr. +640 to win. I’d bet this down to +450. Truex is a co-favorite per my model along with Bowyer.
  • Chris Buescher +75000 to win. Bet down to +15000.
  • Jimmie Johnson +4500 to win. Bet down to +3000.
  • Alex Bowman +5000 to win. Bet down to +2500.
Posted on by Staff Report

Ross Chastain corralled a redemptive victory Saturday night in the NASCAR Gander Outdoors Truck Series, emerging from a late-race restart at World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway in the final event of the Triple Truck Challenge.

Chastain’s Niece Motorsport No. 45 Chevrolet led 21 of the 160 laps in the CarShield 200, collecting an extra $50,000 payday to round out the three-race Triple Truck Challenge initiative — also known as “The Trip.” He held off the primary challenger Christian Eckes down the stretch, gaining track position from a fuel-only stop on his final trip to pit road.

Chastain’s second victory of the season was his first at the 1.25-mile Gateway track and the second of his Gander Trucks career. He was flagged as the winner last Sunday at Iowa Speedway, but he was disqualified and demoted to a last-place finish after his truck failed post-race inspection. Saturday at the Illinois track, Chastain’s truck was given the all-clear signal with no issues in inspection after the race.

“I didn’t want to take tires and then it was up to me to freakin’ hold ’em off,” Chastain said of the fuel-only stop that left him with worn tires for the final sprint. “I don’t know how, but oohhh, I’m going to take that money home and they’re not taking it from us this time.”

RELATED: Race results

Chastain changed his series eligibility earlier this month, declaring on June 4 that he would compete for Gander Trucks championship points after accruing Xfinity Series points from the start of the season. That left him with zero points halfway through the Gander Trucks’ 16-race regular season and meant that his win in the series’ event at Kansas in May did not count toward the series title race.

The victory checked one requirement for Chastain to qualify for playoff eligibility. The other is a jump into the top 20 in the series’ standings; Saturday’s result unofficially moved him to 26th in the standings.

“I can’t believe it, but I can, man,” said Phil Gould, Chastain’s crew chief. “This is tough bunch. This has been a tough, tough week for this team and everybody involved. To come back and battle back through that adversity, that’s pretty damn awesome.”

Todd Gilliland matched a career-best finish in second, his Kyle Busch Motorsports No. 4 Toyota just .704 seconds behind at the checkered flag. Stewart Friesen, Chandler Smith and Brett Moffitt, last week’s winner, completed the top five in the finishing order. Grant Enfinger swept both stages, leading 52 of the first 72 laps in the ThorSport No. 98 Ford before fading to a sixth-place result.

Myatt Snider took 10th place in a substitute role for the suspended Johnny Sauter in the ThorSport Racing No. 13 Ford. NASCAR competition officials banned Sauter for one race after the veteran rammed rival Austin Hill in last weekend’s event at Iowa Speedway. Snider’s fill-in start was just his third appearance in the Gander Trucks tour this season.

Eckes started from the pole position after inclement weather canceled qualifying. That forced officials to set the lineup according to team owner points, placing Eckes’ Kyle Busch Motorsports No. 51 Toyota in the first starting spot. Eckes led 57 laps, but finished 14th after a final-lap spinout.

The event was full of tributes to longtime Truck Series team owner and St. Louis native Mike Mittler, who died May 10 after a long bout with cancer. Mittler’s family members were invited to the event as pre-race dignitaries, and all race teams stood atop the pit wall on Lap 63 in recognition of Mittler’s long-running truck number.

The track renamed the prize for its annual Gander Trucks race the Mittler Memorial Trophy.

Posted on by Staff Report

Ty Gibbs, the 16-year-old grandson of Coach Joe Gibbs, scored his first victory in the ARCA Menards Series on Saturday night, converting a last-lap pass on Sam Mayer to win at World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway.

Gibbs’ No. 18 Toyota dove underneath Mayer’s No. 21 Chevrolet with a bold move entering the final corner before getting a clear path to the checkered flag for the Day to Day Coffee 150. Mayer bumped Gibbs’ car after the finish to express his unhappiness.

“He left the door open. It was fair game,” Gibbs told MavTV post-race. “I got bumped by him at Madison and got spun — or Salem — so it’s fair game, though. He left the door open. He had it won if he wouldn’t have left it wide open. I don’t know what he was doing, but we won the race.”

Gibbs rallied from a late-race pit stop that shuffled him back to eighth place in the running order for the final restart. He calmly picked his way through to contend for the lead before making his move on Mayer. Christian Eckes slipped by Mayer to grab second place at the finish.

“I wouldn’t really call it a pass,” said Mayer, who took third in his seventh ARCA start. “… You just move on honestly. You’ve just got to just look at video and see what you can do to fix the problem and get on the other side of things.”

Gibbs had netted three runner-up finishes before breaking through in his sixth appearance in the ARCA Menards Series. His grandfather was on hand, anxiously watching from atop the team hauler.

“You know you go to wins and everything for everybody, but when it’s your grandson or so, there’s no feeling like this, I’ll just put it that way,” Coach Gibbs said. “I was so uptight. The Cup races, I can kind of relax, but this, I get uptight.”

Posted on by Staff Report

Noah Gragson recovered from his own restart penalty and capitalized on Ryan Preece’s restart infraction Saturday afternoon to prevail in a frantic NASCAR K&N Pro Series West race at Sonoma Raceway. He had an upset stomach to prove it.

Gragson, a 20-year-old regular in the NASCAR Xfinity Series, posted his fifth career K&N West victory in his first appearance in the series in nearly three years. After punctuating his Procore 200 win with a burnout and an impromptu fence-climb, he vomited from the excitement.

“It’s like running a mile. If I’m throwing up, hopefully it’s not like I’m sick. I’m all right,” said Gragson, who survived multiple overtime attempts that pushed the race distance from 50 to 57 laps. “But if I’m throwing up after the race, I guess that means that I did a good job because I’ll be in Victory Lane hopefully. The only times I’ve thrown up after the races were when I’ve won, so it feels good.”

For more coverage: HomeTracks | FansChoice.tv

Gragson led the opening 27 laps until officials ruled that he jumped the restart, sending him deep in the running order. He roared back into contention and lined up in the second row behind Preece and Daniel Hemric for the final overtime attempt.

RELATED: Race results

Officials ruled that Preece jumped the final restart, clearing the way for Gragson to sidestep Hemric and outlast the carnage behind him to secure the win. It was his first trip to a NASCAR Victory Lane since winning a Gander Outdoors Truck Series race in May 2018 at Kansas Speedway.

“I guess it came back around there at the end with the 47 (Preece), and I don’t like winning a race like that,” Gragson said, “but, eye for an eye. It made it extremely challenging ’cause I had to work overly hard to be able to get back up to the front there in the late stages.”

Hemric was posted second with Austin Dillon, his Richard Childress Racing teammate in the Monster Energy Series, third. Xfinity Series regular Cole Custer took fourth with David Mayhew fifth. Preece was dropped to 20th place in the 31-car field, scored as the final driver on the lead lap.

Hailie Deegan, a winner in the series’ most recent race two weeks ago in Colorado, started from the pole position and wound up eighth.

Watch NASCAR K&N Pro Series race replays on NBCSN.

Posted on by RJ Kraft

Kyle Larson will start from the Busch Pole in Sunday’s Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway (3 p.m. ET, FS1, PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) for the third straight year at the California road course. Does he merit a spot in your Fantasy Live lineup? We’ve dissected the numbers to offer a suggested lineup worthy of your Fantasy Live consideration.

PLAY NOW: Set your lineup | How the game works | Tips to set your lineup

RJ Kraft’s Fantasy Live lineup for race day at Sonoma:
1. William Byron
2. Clint Bowyer
3. Kurt Busch
4. Jimmie Johnson
5. Chris Buescher
Garage: Martin Truex Jr.

To the rear: Daniel Suarez (engine change), Erik Jones (unapproved adjustments) and Ross Chastain (driver change).

RELATED: Odds for Sonoma | 10-lap averages | Weekend preview | Podcast: Fantasy Fastlane

Analysis: I made no secret on the podcast that I am valuing drivers that should be after stage points more than others for this race. That means, by in large, I am going after drivers without wins that need a good points day to improve their position in the standings. So with that said, I’m taking Byron, who’s starting second, and I think the No. 24 camp will play this like they did Pocono where he gobbled up stage points. Bowyer, Busch and Johnson are all winless and have strong Sonoma histories so they make the lineup. Buescher has been a favorite of mine all week and I’ve seen no reason to move away from that as I think he’ll benefit from running 12th-15th when the leaders pit and he can score some stage points.

Among the drivers with wins, I like Truex, Chase Elliott and Denny Hamlin the most here for combination of history and where I stand with usages. I’m going to plug Truex — the defending race winner — in the garage for now. Based on last year and the way crew chief Cole Pearn talked about strategy in general on the podcast, I don’t expect the No. 19 to score stage points so I will need to be confident that they can score a top five to activate him out of the garage.

Larson has looked strong this weekend, but I don’t trust the Sonoma history with him. He generally qualifies well — thanks for the five bonus points, Kyle  — but he has never finished better than 12th at the California road course and that scares me away from the play. I also gave consideration to Alex Bowman as well based on his solid 10- and 15-lap averages and the fact that he should chase the points.

For the bonus picks, I’m going with Joey Logano in Stage 1 — I think Penske will follow its Pocono playbook and try to nab playoff points — and Bowyer in Stage 2 with Truex taking the victory.

Each week in this space, we’ll also highlight two Props Challenge items for players.

MORE: Need Props help? The Action Network has you covered | Play the Props Challenge today

1. Will the polesitter lead the first eight laps of the race? Larson has a history of burning up his tires early in runs at Sonoma. In last year’s race, he led just two laps out of the gate. In 2017, he led the first nine. A split decision on past performance, but my gut leans toward the more recent result and so I say “No” to this one.

2. O/U 27.5 race points for Jimmie Johnson. I’m over on this one and not just because he’s in my lineup. If I was managing the 48 strategy, given his position in the points, I’d be looking to gather as much as I could in the stages and then let the chips fall wherever they do. I think Johnson should be able to grab at least nine stage points, so even a 15th-place finish would cover the over here. Count me in for that, especially when you consider he’s hit the over the past three years and finished between 11th and 13th in those races.

Posted on by Reid Spencer

SONOMA, Calif. – Denny Hamlin wasn’t one of the drivers running off course in Turn 5 during practice and kicking up dirt and debris onto the racing surface.

But enough drivers had difficulty in the new corner—thanks to the reinstitution of the Sonoma Raceway carousel—that the competitors were greeted with a new berm in that corner when they came to the track for qualifying on Saturday.

RELATED: Sonoma schedule

Kyle Busch, Hamlin’s Joe Gibbs Racing teammate, lobbied for curbing in the corner.

“Everybody was dumping their right sides off the race track and dumping dirt on the race track and kind of messing it up for the people that were behind them,” Busch said. “It’s going to get really dirty over there. Guys might be racing side-by-side during the race. The outside guy is definitely going to want to crowd the inside guy and go halfway into the dirt. So it was going to get interesting.

“If you’re a guy that’s leading the race—and you’re coming down to the last lap—just dump your tires into the dirt and the guy behind you is never going to catch you. It didn’t seem like it was all that smart not to have a curb over there.”

RELATED: Sonoma starting lineup

But the new berm didn’t faze Hamlin, who had the fastest Toyota in Saturday’s qualifying (sixth overall).

“It didn’t affect me any,” said Hamlin, who qualified one spot ahead of Busch. “I wasn’t one of the guys that was getting off the track.

“I thought it was good, because, obviously, when it gets down to the race, if you didn’t have that, you would just run in the dirt. It is unique for sure. We’re going to use every bit of the racetrack. I didn’t really use it to begin with, but I think it’s good that they can keep the track clean.”

Posted on by Reid Spencer

SONOMA, Calif. – Winning poles at Sonoma Raceway is nothing new for Kyle Larson, who proved that definitively on Saturday, powering his No. 42 Chip Ganassi Racing Chevrolet to his third straight top starting spot at the 2.52-mile road course, which features the addition of the carousel this year.

What has been far less predictable is Larson’s finishing position in the Toyota/Save Mart 350, a statistic Larson hopes to rectify on Sunday (3 p.m. ET on FS1, PRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). Larson has finished 26th and 14th in his last two outings at Sonoma and has never run better than 12th in five Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series starts at the track.

RELATED: See every car in the field | Qualifying results

“I guess the trend with my three poles is winning a pole and then struggling in the race,” said the 26-year-old from Elk Grove, California, who claimed his first Busch Pole Award of the season and the eighth of his career and tied Ricky Rudd for most consecutive poles at the track. “Hopefully, we’ll have something different for tomorrow. I feel good.

“We did a mock (qualifying) run yesterday in practice and ran a good lap. I kind of over-drove the first session and then the next session I said, ‘I’m going to calm down and not make any mistakes,’ and I probably under-drove just a little. In the carousel, I think I gave up a little speed, but I feel like I made up some time in other areas, too. It’s cool to get a third pole in a row here at my home track.”

Larson toured the 12-turn circuit in 94.784 seconds (95.712 mph), edging fellow Chevrolet driver William Byron (95.669 mph) by .043 seconds. Joey Logano qualified third at 95.618 mph in his No. 22 Team Penske Ford.

“I feel like my lap was pretty good,” said Logano, who was .094 seconds off the pole speed. “I was just a little loose. I feel like I got through it mainly pretty decent. I got a little loose off of (Turn) 10. If I could find one spot, I got too loose off 10 trying to throttle up too aggressively and stuck half my left sides up in the dirt and got loose and knocked a few mile an hour off on the exit, compared to what I would have been.

“Maybe that’s a tenth (of a second), maybe a half a tenth. I don’t know. I have to go back and look. All I needed was nine-hundredths, so that’s probably the spot I’m looking at.”

Chase Elliott qualified fourth, ahead of Daniel Suarez. Sixth-place Denny Hamlin had the fastest Toyota, edging Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr., the defending race winner. Ryan Blaney, Chris Buescher, Jimmie Johnson and Alex Bowman also advanced to the second round of time trials and will start ninth through 12th, respectively.

Posted on by Holly Cain

Kyle Larson’s success at the famed Sonoma Raceway is to some extent, a microcosm of his season.

He’s won the pole position for the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series race at the track for the past two years, but hasn’t been there at the finish to take home the big trophy. Similarly, the popular young driver has been good on the season – he won the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series All-Star race last month – but he’s still looking for his first points-paying victory. 

This could well be the track and the weekend that changes all that.

RELATED: Full schedule for Sonoma | Larson tops final practice

The Sonoma Raceway road course is essentially a home race track for the Elk Grove, California native. He fondly recalls coming to races as a fan when he was a young boy, even dressing in his racing hero Jeff Gordon’s kid-size fire suit. 

And the feel-good has continued as an adult. The day before his 2014 rookie series debut at the track, Larson won the pole and led every lap to claim the NASCAR K&N Pro Series West victory.

He’d love to replicate the good vibes and past performance in Sunday’s Toyota/Save Mart 350 (3 p.m. ET on FS1, PRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). And judging by his work in Friday’s opening two practice sessions, he’s a good bet. Larson led final practice in his No. 42 Chip Ganassi Racing Chevrolet.

“We don’t ever come here and set up to get a pole,” Larson told reporters Friday afternoon. “We come here to try and win the race and have the set-up capable of winning the race. So it just happens to work out where I’ve been good for short-run kind of stuff here my whole career.

“It seems like it’s kind of the same thing again this weekend. So, I don’t know. We’ve tried all sorts of different stuff so maybe it’s just my fault why I’m only good at qualifying.”

In an unusual twist of fate, the fact Larson has only five previous Monster Energy Series starts at Sonoma may well work into his favor this weekend. The Sonoma track will feature a new look for the first time since 1997. And the change in course – extending it from 1.99-miles to 2.52-miles and adding the famous carousel turn – has garnered plenty of headlines and strong opinions. No one entered this weekend has ever run this longer track version in a Cup race.

RELATED: What drivers are saying about the carousel after practice

It certainly didn’t slow Larson down in the opening practice sessions. In fact, he even told reporters the new section of the course may well be his favorite part. 

“It’s just a few extra corners so it’s not a big deal I guess to any of us out there,” Larson said. “So yeah, we ran a good lap in our mock run today in practice, so I feel like I have a good shot at another pole tomorrow {Saturday). I would like to be better in race trim, but if we can get another pole it would be pretty cool.”

Larson is ranked 15th in the series driver standings – inside the top-16 cutoff to ultimately make the Playoffs – but with only an eight-point cushion over 17th place Ryan Newman. Larson is 14 points behind 14th place William Byron.

This weekend may well be a turning point for Larson. His season’s highs – such as earning his first All-Star Race victory – have been extraordinary, but his disappointments have been equally as resounding. Larson led a race best 143 laps at Atlanta, for example, but finished 12th.  And the perennial Playoff contender has as many DNFs as he does top-10s (four). His best effort of 2019 is third place at Dover in May. His last top 10 came a week after that – an eighth place run in Kansas.

Larson has never started worse than fifth in five Sonoma races, but has never finished better than 12th (2016). He’s hoping a new look for the track may translate into a new look for him after the race: sipping local wine in Victory Lane.

“I guess [it’s] not too frustrating with how our cars are running because I feel like our cars have been pretty good,” Larson said when asked about his season. “But as far as just bad luck or mistakes and things like that, that’s what’s been frustrating. But having a decently fast race car helps relieve some of that frustration.

“Kurt [Busch] has been running really good. I run pretty good most of the race and then kind of something seems to happen towards to the end. We’ve just got to clean up some things still and hopefully we can make the Playoffs and be hitting on all eight cylinders at the right time.”