Hendrick Motorsports’ Chase Elliott will start from the Busch Pole in Sunday’s Food City 500 (2 p.m. ET on FS1, PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). Does he merit a spot in your lineup two weeks removed from a runner-up finish at Martinsville? We’ve dissected the numbers to offer a suggested lineup worthy of your Fantasy Live consideration.
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Remember that the garage locks at the end of Stage 2. Once the final stage starts, your roster is locked in.
RJ Kraft’s Fantasy Live lineup for race day at Bristol:
1. Clint Bowyer
2. Jimmie Johnson
3. Ryan Blaney
4. Erik Jones
5. Chase Elliott
Garage: Kyle Busch
Starting from rear: Kevin Harvick (failed pre-race inspection three times) — read more here; Ryan Preece (backup car)–read more here
RELATED: Odds for Bristol | 10-lap averages from Bristol | Podcast: Fantasy Fastlane
Analysis: On the Fantasy Fastlane Podcast, Steve Letarte and #StatGuyRussell enjoy giving me grief for making multiple changes from my planned lineup entering the weekend. Plans are all well and good, but when the stats and lap averages are telling you something glaring, it behooves you to pay attention and make changes. That’s where I find myself heading into race day. Into the lineup are Blaney, Jones and Elliott. Out of my initial lineup are Kyle Larson, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Alex Bowman.
The Blaney-Jones-Elliott trio is in for a few reasons. First, they hold three-fourths of the top four spots on the grid, so I like the opportunity for stage points. Second, Blaney and Jones have each shown a lot of speed this weekend. Third, Elliott has been strong on short tracks with six top 10s in his last seven races on that track type. I have used neither of these three more than two times, so I feel good about the usage levels. Bowyer and Johnson have looked solid as expected and have strong recent histories at Bristol to boot. I have hardly used either of them so I don’t have any concerns there.
For the garage, I debated between three options: Busch, Kevin Harvick and Stenhouse (Note that this was before Harvick’s pre-race inspection penalty). Harvick was top four in both Saturday practice sessions on the 10-lap board. He also topped the best 15-, 20- and 30-lap averages (h/t @mikejoy500). Busch has won two of the last three races at Bristol and has seven victories there. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver also topped the 10-lap board in final practice. Stenhouse is more of a wild-card option with six top 10s at Bristol. Though he qualified 19th, he had a top-10 lap average in final practice. Busch has been pretty much a top-five machine all year, so I am going to place that in reserve in the garage — especially since I have eight uses left there as well. In addition, Harvick will now be starting at the rear of the field and must serve a pass-thru penalty at the start of the race for failing pre-race inspection a third time which means saving him is a MUST.
For the stage and race wins, I have Blaney across the board — think the Team Penske driver’s combo of speed and track position pays off for him early. Ford is my manufacturer pick.
Each week in this space, we’ll also highlight two Props Challenge items for players.
MORE: Play the Props Challenge today
1. The average starting position for the race winner the past 6 races at Bristol is 10.6. Will Sunday’s race winner start inside the top 10? I’m a Yes on this question even though it means betting against Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, Kyle Busch and Kyle Larson. I simply like several of the options in the top 10 — most notably Denny Hamlin (starting fifth) and Joey Logano (starting seventh) in addition to the drivers starting in the top 10 that are in my Fantasy Live lineup.
2. Which driver finishes higher at Bristol: Austin Dillon or Daniel Suarez? This is a pretty close one to pick. Based on lap averages, Suarez had the better times in Saturday’s practices. Based on the best single laps, they split the Saturday sessions. In the four races they’ve both run at Bristol, each has finished better in two of the four. In seven races this year, Suarez has the edge in better finish 4 to 3. I’m giving Suarez the advantage based largely on his momentum coming off a third-place finish last weekend at Texas.
