The biggest story of the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs so far? It might be the impressive speed of Toyotas at Darlington and Gateway. Not only have a pair of Joe Gibbs Racing Camrys swept the first two races — with wins from Chase Briscoe and Denny Hamlin — but Toyota drivers have also dominated the Racing-Reference pages for both events. Despite making up just five of 16 cars in the playoff field, Toyota owns six of 10 possible top fives and 12 of 20 possible top 10s, including four top fives and eight top 10s from playoff drivers.

Chart showing Toyota's finishes in the first two playoff races compared with Chevrolet and Ford.

Toyota’s five championship-eligible entries (Hamlin, Briscoe, Christopher Bell, Bubba Wallace and Tyler Reddick) collectively have an average finish of 7.9, much better than their playoff counterparts from Ford (19.0) and Chevy (19.5). As part of that, Toyota carries an impressive combined average Adjusted Points+ index of 230 (or 130% better than Cup average) and a Driver Rating of 108.6. Among OEMs with at least five playoff entries in a year since Driver Rating data became available in 2005, both numbers rank within the top four we’ve seen through the first two races of any postseason.

Chart showing how Toyota's start to the playoffs ranks against OEM starts in the playoffs all-time.

That gives the Toyotas a case for the most dominant start to a postseason since at least 2005 — definitively trailing only Chevrolet in 2009. That year, Hendrick Motorsports drivers Mark Martin and Jimmie Johnson swept the opening pair of races, part of Chevy’s own set of six total top fives and 10 top 10s from playoff drivers at the start of the playoffs — beginning what they would eventually run up to five consecutive Chevy wins to begin the playoffs, with Johnson, Martin and Jeff Gordon finishing 1-2-3 in the final standings in their Impalas for good measure.

(In 2004, the debut season of the Chase For the Cup, no OEM sent more than four entries to what was then a 10-driver field anyway, with Ford and Dodge splitting the first two races, so it’s fair to call Chevy’s 2009 showing the greatest start in playoff history either way.)

How much does a red-hot start by a manufacturer predict the rest of the playoffs, though?

The bad news for Toyota is that it doesn’t tend to carry over too much from here. Again looking at OEMs with at least five playoff entries going back to 2005, we find that their average finish in the first two races of the playoffs explains only 5% of how their playoff drivers finish over the rest of the playoffs. The explanatory power is higher for Adjusted Points+ (21%) and Driver Rating (39%), but the point remains that no matter how off-the-charts a manufacturer’s early results are, it doesn’t guarantee dominance all playoffs long.

The good news, however, is that the Toyota drivers aren’t necessarily building their case off of just the past few races alone. We detailed before the playoffs how Briscoe had sneakily been the best driver in Cup for most of the summer, and Hamlin has shown zero signs of slowing down this year despite being the series’ oldest full-time driver at age 44. Wallace is having what might be the best season of his career, while Bell and Reddick are perennial threats to make the Championship 4. (One of the two has made it that far in each of the past three seasons.)

Because of all this, our Cup Series playoff forecast model — which uses projected Driver Ratings by track type to simulate the playoffs 10,000 times — gives some Toyota driver or another (whether for JGR or 23XI) a 51% chance to win the 2025 Cup Series title, with Hamlin checking in as the current favorite. Despite claiming only 31% of the entries in the playoff field, Toyota drivers are significantly more likely than that to be represented at each phase of the playoffs:

Chart showing how far Toyota drivers are expected to advance in these playoffs compared to other manufacturers.

Two races in, things are going just about as well as could be hoped for by a manufacturer who hasn’t won a title in five years (granted, after previously winning two in three seasons from 2017-19 with Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Busch). In the past, Toyota’s arc in many seasons has followed Hamlin’s — always strongly competitive, but never quite good enough to capture a championship. This year is shaping up to be different, though. Whether it means Hamlin finally gets his long-awaited title, or one of their other contenders earns the crown instead, the numbers say a breakthrough may be at hand for Toyota in these playoffs — and these opening statements might end up being a clear signal of what’s still to come.

Editor’s note: Projection updated after Friday’s practice and qualifying sessions.

With two races down in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, the sun will set on four title hopefuls this Saturday night at the “Last Great Colosseum” and end their playoff run early (7:30  ET, USA Network, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App).

Racing Insights has a wealth of data to help gauge who might advance in the postseason and who might be eliminated.

RELATED: Bristol weekend schedule | Cup Series Playoffs standings

For starters, it doesn’t take much to understand that the Toyotas of Joe Gibbs Racing have come to play in the first two Round of 16 races. With Chase Briscoe dominating the Southern 500 opener and Denny Hamlin flexing late at Gateway, there’s good reason to think the organization could produce a clean sweep of the first round and lock all three of its drivers into the Round of 12 via a win.

That third driver would be Christopher Bell, who opened the season on a red-hot streak of three consecutive victories after crashing out of the Daytona 500. Bell was hot for a different reason last weekend, admittedly frustrated that the No. 20 team hadn’t been able to replicate the same success Briscoe and Hamlin have been thriving with over the past few months. But can Bell turn that fire around into a statement win at “Thunder Valley?”

Going to Bristol, it’s no secret that Hamlin and Kyle Larson are the favorites, with both drivers combining to win six of the last nine races here. However, while Bell has yet to dominate a race at the Tennessee track to the level of Hamlin or Larson, his career numbers at the “World’s Fastest Half-Mile” point out that he might erupt for a convincing triumph. He’s finished in the top 10 in each of his last five starts and has led a total of 359 laps over that span. Plus, Bell ranks third in speed, long-run speed and passing at Bristol in the Next Gen car, behind Larson and Hamlin in each of those categories, according to NASCAR Insights. Finally, Bell leads all drivers in laps run in the top 10 at Bristol since 2022, proven by the fact he’s scored points every stage here over the last six races.

Another case for why C-Bell could be in Victory Lane on Saturday night is that two of his playoff wins have come in elimination races. Granted, he was in a “must-win scenario” for both of those events (Roval and Martinsville in 2022), and he only needs 36 points to advance this weekend. However, the emotion he showed last weekend is a telling sign that the No. 20 driver is hungry to return to Victory Lane.

FANTASY: Set your lineup | Make a 36 for 36 pick

OTHER DRIVERS TO WATCH

KYLE LARSON: Larson has put up generational numbers in the last two races here, leading just over 87% of the last 1,000 laps run at Bristol, which is only comparable to when Bobby Allison led 903 laps over a two-race span in 1972. He’s eyeing to become the first driver to win three straight Bristol races since Kurt Busch in 2004.

JOEY LOGANO: The last time Logano entered the Bristol Night Race as the defending champ, he was eliminated from the playoffs. With no lead-lap finishes in the last five races here, there’s some cause for concern.

ROSS CHASTAIN: With 19 points to the good, Chastain is another driver who will be sweating out the 500-lapper to advance. However, since 2022, he ranks eighth in long-run speed, defense and restarts at Bristol and could easily be in the mix.

AUSTIN DILLON: Now here’s a driver that can make some noise on the bubble, as Dillon finished 10th here in the spring. Through 20 career starts at Bristol, Dillon has only two DNFs, so he could capitalize on chaos if it strikes.

ALEX BOWMAN: Bowman scored the previous two poles at the high-banked short track and was in the top 10 in both speed and long-run speed at Bristol in the Next Gen era, according to NASCAR Insights. He will need to deliver a clutch performance and win, sitting 35 points below the elimination line.

RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR BASS PRO SHOPS NIGHT RACE

Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula incorporates current track, track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to predict a projected winner and provide full race results. Updated on race day with practice and qualifying factored in.

FinishCar No.Driver
111Denny Hamlin
25Kyle Larson
320Christopher Bell
412Ryan Blaney
59Chase Elliott
654Ty Gibbs
724William Byron
819Chase Briscoe
923Bubba Wallace
1017Chris Buescher
1148Alex Bowman
121Ross Chastain
1345Tyler Reddick
146Brad Keselowski
1560Ryan Preece
1677Carson Hocevar
1716AJ Allmendinger
182Austin Cindric
1971Michael McDowell
2022Joey Logano
218Kyle Busch
2221Josh Berry
237Justin Haley
2442John H Nemechek
253Austin Dillon
2643Erik Jones
274Noah Gragson
2847Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
2999Daniel Suárez
3041Cole Custer
3138Zane Smith
3235Riley Herbst
3334Todd Gilliland
3410Ty Dillon
3588Shane van Gisbergen
3667Corey Heim
3751Cody Ware
3833Austin Hill
3966Chad Finchum

Here’s what’s happening in NASCAR with the Enjoy Illinois 300 at World Wide Technology Raceway in the rearview and Saturday’s Bristol Night Race up next (7:30 p.m. ET, USA Network, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App).

HOW TO WATCH: NASCAR on NBC, USA | Driver Cams on HBO Max

1. Here comes Hendrick — Larson to lead charge back against Toyota

The start of the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs has been all Joe Gibbs Racing and 23XI Racing so far, but that may be about to change in this weekend’s Round of 16 cutoff race at Bristol Motor Speedway.

Toyota drivers enter this weekend’s Round of 16 cutoff race as the unquestioned frontrunners of the playoffs thus far, with Joe Gibbs Racing taking the air out of the room as Chase Briscoe and Denny Hamlin suffocated the field in the opening two races, and 23XI’s duo heads into Saturday with plenty of cushion to feel safe.

At the same time, Kyle Larson enters Bristol Motor Speedway as the undisputed king of the concrete colosseum in the Next Gen era, with numbers that are truly extraordinary. The 2021 champ owns three Bristol wins in his last seven starts, including two in a row with this race last year and again earlier this season. More impressive still, Larson led 873 laps in those two — nearly 90% of all possible laps — a feat that places him among the most dominant short-track performers in NASCAR history.

The 1,762 laps Larson has led at Bristol represent his highest total at any track by a margin of 712, and the 462 laps led in the most recent night race there marked the most ever by a Hendrick Motorsports driver in a single Cup race, cementing his status as the organization’s short-track ace. Though his summer didn’t quite go as planned, if it was all going to turn around for the California native on his quest for title No. 2, this is the spot.

RELATED: Bristol entry list | Full weekend schedule

As dominant as Toyota has looked through two races, it’s hard not to get the sense that No. 5 is about to wash all that away and position himself as the potential title favorite as the Round of 12 takes shape with another strong-arming of the field under the lights.

“Yeah, I mean, it would be great to have a day like the last two times there where we lead a bunch of laps and win the race,” Larson reflected after Gateway. “You can never expect that. Everybody is always getting better. We have to try to go up there and execute like we did … qualify up front. You just hope the race will play out better in our favor. We can just build on it.”

Also worth noting — Larson’s brilliance reflects a broader Hendrick resurgence at Bristol, as other powerhouse organizations like Team Penske have struggled to make it happen there in the past decade. Chase Elliott has registered top-10 finishes in more than half of his Bristol starts (nine of 16) and has led 444 laps of his own. Alex Bowman, desperately in need of the best possible finish he can muster this weekend, earned pole positions for each of the last two Bristol races, while William Byron has yet to lead a lap there but owns four top 10s in the last six.

Apart from any self-induced mishaps, Toyota does remain Hendrick’s biggest hurdle this weekend. The manufacturer has orchestrated a masterclass in postseason racing thus far, winning both races and leading 515 of 607 laps run, securing a landmark 200th victory over the weekend as Hamlin picked up his series-best fifth 2025 win. Briscoe’s display of dominance at Darlington also showcased Toyota’s depth beyond established veterans after Kyle Busch moved on a few years ago and Martin Truex Jr. retired after last year, as he and Bubba Wallace, who has a healthy cushion entering Bristol, look like realistic Championship 4 contenders for the first time in their careers.

Defending champion Joey Logano acknowledged the gap between manufacturers so far candidly after Gateway.

“They’re ridiculously fast. They’ve got a lot of grip, and they’ve got a lot of horsepower. We’ve got a lot of work to do to catch up.”

Bristol’s concrete surface and track treatment, courtesy of NASCAR — not to mention a new right-side tire — provide consistent grip and racing characteristics that reward both raw speed and strategic positioning. This could lead to Toyota further maximizing exactly what Logano mentioned, or it could open the door for Larson and others to catch up and make it look like anybody’s ballgame again.

If Toyota is able to maintain its pace at Bristol, the championship is clearly in its grasp. And tightening.

Denny Hamlin, driver of the #11 Express Oil Change Toyota, Kyle Larson, driver of the #5 HendrickCars.com Chevrolet, Christopher Bell, driver of the #20 DEWALT Toyota, and Ty Gibbs, driver of the #54 SiriusXM Toyota, race during the NASCAR Cup Series Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway on March 17, 2024 in Bristol, Tennessee.
Meg Oliphant | Getty Images

2. Is a major surprise elimination coming at Bristol?

Reigning champion Joey Logano’s title defense has not been a particularly strong one, and No. 22 faces the very realistic threat of elimination Saturday night at Bristol. Will he, or other big players facing the cut, rise to the occasion at “The Last Great Colosseum?”

As laid out above, there’s going to be plenty of warranted focus on Larson and Toyota (and in particular Hamlin) this weekend.

There is, however, one potential majorly dramatic subplot to focus on Saturday night — the defending champion may not make it out of the first round.

Joey Logano’s startling struggles this year are well past the point of “hey, they’ll get it together in time for the playoffs.” Here we are on the verge of the first cutoff race inside the playoffs, and No. 22 has just eight top 10s on the year, hasn’t felt close to winning a race since the spring, and now faces elimination, needing to maintain a scant 21-point cushion to the bubble at a mediocre-at-best track for him.

Sure, he’s a two-time Bristol winner, but both of those came a decade ago or more, and Logano arrives averaging a 27th-place finish in five Next Gen races, placing 22nd or worse each time. That skid contrasts sharply with his history of clutch performances and underscores Team Penske’s challenges adapting to Bristol with this car. Short of everything going perfectly, Logano faces the real threat of elimination. One ill-timed pit miscue or mechanical fault could end his championship bid, transforming what should have been another strong run (albeit in an odd year) into one of this season’s biggest upsets.

By contrast, Christopher Bell, also far off his early-season pace to the point the mild-mannered Oklahoman is calling out his team after seventh-place finishes, epitomizes reliability at Bristol and should be a lock to advance and continue his trek toward title No. 1. He has never finished outside the top 10 at this track in the Next Gen and ranks third among active drivers in laps led at the half-mile oval. Bell’s consistent stage results, with a top 10 in every stage over the last six races, reflect the precision that Bristol demands and few can master.

Below the cutline, however, desperation intensifies.

Alex Bowman, who has as many Bristol finishes over the past eight races inside the top 10 as finishes outside the top 30, sits 35 points short after pit-road penalties and mechanical failures have hampered his campaign. He needs to have the race of his life, as only a victory or a flawless points day will salvage his season.

Shane van Gisbergen, 15 points shy, confronts his first genuine short-track challenge; his road-course prowess offers little guidance on Bristol’s high banks, and his lone start here ended in a 38th-place DNF. Add the pressure of playoff elimination and we’ll get to really test SVG’s mettle this weekend.

Josh Berry, 45 points adrift, represents the ultimate underdog of the race, a long shot among long shots. Accidents in both playoff races have painted him into a corner, yet Wood Brothers Racing’s history of strong short-track showings provides a sliver of hope if he can avoid early wrecks.

Should Logano stumble, any one of these bubble drivers could vault into the Round of 12 without taking the checkered flag. Don’t be quick to rule out a pop-off win from Ross Chastain or Austin Dillon — the most recent short-track winner — if the in-race points situation gets jumbled and some of the sport’s most aggressive drivers need to muscle up at the end.

Bristol is an equalizer to a degree, and this playoff field for the Round of 12 is anything but solidified. Chris Buescher’s 2022 breakthrough to end a 223-race winless streak, for example, illustrates how precise timing and opportunism can sometimes override raw speed at one of the sport’s most unique venues.

The only question is who wants it the most?

BRISTOL, TENNESSEE - SEPTEMBER 20: Joey Logano, driver of the #22 Shell Pennzoil Ford, enters his car during qualifying for the NASCAR Cup Series Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway on September 20, 2024 in Bristol, Tennessee.
Jonathan Bachman | Getty Images

3. Kyle Petty: Is Ryan Blaney too nice to drive a race car?

Kyle Petty breaks down whether Ryan Blaney is ‘too nice’ after his recent run-in with Kyle Larson at World Wide Technology Raceway.

4. Will a first-time short-track winner advance at Bristol?

Five of the six lowest-ranked drivers remaining in the playoffs have never won at a short track before, and none of them have won at Bristol, in particular. Will one of them change that on Saturday night? (Credit: Racing Insights)

DriverWinsLast
Kyle Busch16Bristol 4/19
Denny Hamlin15Martinsville 3/25
Brad Keselowski7Richmond 9/20
Kyle Larson6Bristol 4/25
Joey Logano5Martinsville 10/18
Ryan Blaney3Martinsville 11/24
William Byron3Iowa 8/25
Alex Bowman2Martinsville 10/21
Chris Buescher2Richmond 7/23
Austin Dillon2Richmond 9/25
Chase Elliott1Martinsville 11/20
Christopher Bell1Martinsville 10/22

5. Catch the pack — news and notes from around the garage

Paint Scheme Preview: 2025 Bristol Motor Speedway playoff weekend

Power Rankings: Bubba Wallace enters Championship 4 conversation after hot start

Gateway victory primes Hamlin for personal milestone of 60th Cup win

Kyle Petty: Denny Hamlin ‘may be the last driver that hits 60’ wins

Some smooth, others bumpy: Gateway nets mixed results for Hendrick Motorsports

Radioactive: Hear what Blaney said after getting spun out

‘Their heart goes to a different place’: Who’s rising in the playoffs

Playoff Pulse: Title contenders rise, fall through Gateway melee

Goodyear to debut new, softer right-side tires for Bristol Night Race

NASCAR official on Trackhouse post-race actions: ‘We’ll make it pretty clear to them moving forward’

Christopher Bell unsatisfied with Gateway top 10: ‘We are underperforming’

Larson tangles with Blaney at Gateway: ‘He should be upset’

Denny Hamlin’s late surge sews up fifth win of season, Round of 12 playoff spot

BRISTOL, TENNESSEE - SEPTEMBER 21: A general view of the grid prior to the NASCAR Cup Series Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway on September 21, 2024 in Bristol, Tennessee.
Jonathan Bachman | Getty Images

For a driver who finished 30th in the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series playoff opener at Darlington Raceway and currently occupies next-to-last place in the standings, Chandler Smith has a surprisingly sanguine outlook entering Thursday night’s UNOH 250 Presented by Ohio Logistics at Bristol Motor Speedway (8 p.m. ET, FS1, NASCAR Radio Network, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

“Honestly, I’m not too worried about it,” said Smith, who crashed out of the Darlington race after 14 laps and is two points below the current elimination line for the Round of 8. “ … Going back to Bristol, we were really strong there earlier this year,” said Smith. “Then New Hampshire as well, so I’m not really worried about the point situation.”

In fact, Smith won the spring race at “Thunder Valley” from the third starting position. Both he and Front Row Motorsports teammate Layne Riggs have had consistently fast Fords of late.

RELATED: Bristol schedule | Truck Series playoff standings

“We’ve still got two races left going back to Bristol, where we won earlier this year and then New Hampshire for the last race of this round, where I’ve been really strong in the past as well,” Smith said.

“I’m not really discouraged or anything about that. I think our trucks here recently have been really good. Everybody at Front Row Motorsports has been giving me a truck capable of going out there and winning.”

The Sept. 20 EJP 175 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway (Noon ET, FS1, NASCAR Radio Network, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) will trim the playoff field from 10 drivers to eight. Smith trails eighth-place Jake Garcia by two points and seventh-place Rajah Caruth by four. Kaden Honeycutt is 10th in the standings, seven points below the elimination line.

Already guaranteed a spot in the Round of 8, eight-race winner Corey Heim goes for his fourth straight Truck Series victory on Friday. Heim has taken the checkered flag in four of the last five races, three times from the pole position.

 As Justin Allgaier begins the defense of the long-awaited NASCAR Xfinity Series title he won last year at Phoenix Raceway, the focus, appropriately enough, is on his rookie JR Motorsports teammate, Connor Zilisch.

The 19-year-old driver of the No. 88 Chevrolet has won seven of the last eight races, including the last four straight, tying Sam Ard (1983) and Noah Gragson (2022) for the Xfinity Series record for consecutive victories.

Zilisch, the Regular Season Champion, is 59 points above the current elimination line for the playoffs’ Round of 8 entering Friday night’s Food City 300 at Bristol Motor Speedway (7:30 ET on The CW, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

MORE: Bristol entry list | Full weekend schedule

He plans to keep his remarkable streak going as the postseason begins.

“This No. 88 team has been on a run this year, and four wins in a row is a rare feat, but we aren’t going to take any of that for granted going into the playoffs,” Zilisch said. “(Crew chief) Mardy (Lindley), my whole team and my pit crew continue to execute every week, and we don’t plan on turning down the intensity anytime soon.

“It has been awesome to have the success we have had this season, and we plan to unload another fast WeatherTech Chevrolet this Friday.”

At 30 points above the current cutline, Allgaier is the only playoff driver besides Zilisch with any degree of comfort entering the playoffs.

The remaining 10 playoff drivers, from Sam Mayer in third to Austin Hill in 12th, are covered by a spread of 16 points. Mayer is 11 points to the good while Hill, who lost his regular-season playoff points under penalty for wrecking Aric Almirola at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, is five points below the elimination line.

The extraordinary closeness of the playoff field all but guarantees an intense scramble for position in Friday night’s playoff opener at Thunder Valley.

Already clinched

The following two drivers have clinched a spot in the 12-driver field of the next round: Denny Hamlin, Chase Briscoe.

Can clinch via points

If there’s a repeat winner or a win by a driver who cannot advance to the next round, the following drivers could clinch by being ahead of the 11th winless driver in the standings.

The same point requirements listed below would hold true if a new win comes from among Kyle Larson, Bubba Wallace, Ryan Blaney, William Byron, Tyler Reddick, Christopher Bell, Chase Elliott, Joey Logano, Ross Chastain or Austin Cindric.

— Kyle Larson: Would clinch regardless of finish.

— Bubba Wallace: Would clinch with 7 points.

— Ryan Blaney: Would clinch with 15 points.

— William Byron: Would clinch with 18 points.

— Tyler Reddick: Would clinch with 19 points.

— Christopher Bell: Would clinch with 25 points.

— Chase Elliott: Would clinch with 29 points.

— Joey Logano: Would clinch with 36 points.

— Ross Chastain: Would clinch with 38 points.

— Austin Cindric: Would clinch with 46 points.

— Austin Dillon, Shane van Gisbergen, Alex Bowman and Josh Berry: All could only clinch with help.

RELATED: Cup Series standings 

If there is a new winner from Austin Dillon or another winless driver lower in the standings but still eligible to advance to the next round, the following drivers could clinch by being ahead of the 10th winless driver in the standings.

— Kyle Larson: Would clinch with 8 points.

— Bubba Wallace: Would clinch with 18 points.

— Ryan Blaney: Would clinch with 26 points.

— William Byron: Would clinch with 29 points.

— Tyler Reddick: Would clinch with 31 points.

— Christopher Bell: Would clinch with 36 points.

— Chase Elliott: Would clinch with 40 points.

— Joey Logano: Would clinch with 47 points.

— Ross Chastain: Would clinch with 49 points.

— Austin Cindric, Austin Dillon, Shane van Gisbergen, Alex Bowman and Josh Berry: All could only clinch with help.

Before heading to Bristol Motor Speedway for Saturday’s Round of 16 elimination race in the Cup Series Playoffs (7:30 p.m. ET, USA Network, HBO Max, NBC Sports App, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), Kyle Larson watched his 7-year-old daughter Audrey grab her first career victory on Tuesday at Millbridge Speedway.

The dirt track in Salisbury, North Carolina, plays host to the beginnings of many racing careers and has been the go-to venue for the children of retired and active NASCAR drivers.

RELATED: Bristol schedule | Cup playoff standings

“It was really cool,” Larson said Wednesday during a Zoom teleconference. “Obviously, you don’t ever forget a first win. I remember being at Millbridge for (son) Owen’s first win, and then lucky enough to be able to be there for Audrey’s first-ever win as well last night. It was really neat. She’s been doing a really good job. She’s only been racing for about a year and she’s really competitive, and she’s driven and works at it. It was a cool moment for sure. You could see she was happy and she was getting choked up a little bit in her interviews, so it was cool.”

While Larson said he didn’t get emotional immediately after Audrey’s win, he said he had a moment with her that almost got the waterworks going.

“I had moments, and then when she told me that she was getting ready to cry afterwards in the trailer, that’s probably when I mostly got choked up,” Larson said. “I was the video-taping dad on my phone. So maybe if I’d had my phone down and I really was absorbing the moment, I probably would have cried. It was awesome. She’s my only daughter, so she’s got a soft spot in my heart.”

Larson said both Audrey and Owen race at a consistent level, but isn’t committed for now to putting in the time that fellow racing dads Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick are currently investing into their own children, but did note that Audrey has the more competitive edge compared to her older brother.

“We don’t take it quite yet as serious as Kyle or Kevin do,” Larson said. “I would say Owen’s pretty laid back with it, and I think racing is just kind of fun for him and a way to hang with his friends, and get a little competitive. Audrey, I would say, (has) more got the competitive mindset. (She) wants to watch video, run on the simulator, go to the go-kart track and practice, go testing at Millbridge, race as much as she can. I have fun with that because she’s more similar to me in that aspect. But I also want to just keep it fun for them, not burn them out at a young age, which is, I think, easy to do.

“I think Audrey is going to run like 30 races this year, and Owen’s like in the mid-50s. It sounds like a lot, but it’s not that crazy when you factor in Brexton’s probably running 400 races this year. But it’s fun and I just enjoy seeing them have a good time and building memories.”

NASCAR will warn Cup Series teams of significant penalties — possibly up to a disqualification — awaiting cars that take off-road excursions after the checkered flag in the future.

During the latest episode of the “Hauler Talk” podcast, managing director of communications Mike Forde said NASCAR’s weekly competition update would address the Trackhouse Racing Chevrolets of Ross Chastain and Shane van Gisbergen running through the infield grass during the cooldown lap of Sunday’s race at World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway.

RELATED: Weekend schedule | Cup standings

“We did not care for it, not one bit,” Forde said. “We’re going to just remind teams this is something where we actually have a rule. I think we’re going to give (Trackhouse) a little bit of a warning. But there is a rule that says what they did — you could argue — broke a rule, and there could have been repercussions for it. But I think we’re going to allow the teams sort of a gimme here and say moving forward be aware that we are going to be looking at this.”

Per Rule 6421.b, cars are considered to be under impound conditions immediately after the checkered flag and must not be altered or adjusted in any manner during the cooldown lap or on pit road prior to reporting to the inspection areas.

“That is something that we’ll frown upon in a significant way,” Forde said. “Whether that is going to be an in-race penalty or a DQ, that is going to be determined after the event. It depends on how blatant the violation was. I don’t think we’re going to outline exactly what the repercussions would be because we’re going to take it on a case-by-case basis.”

With Chastain and van Gisbergen both in the playoffs and facing post-race inspection at Gateway, Forde said the Trackhouse drivers likely were trying to ensure their cars made minimum weight, adding NASCAR has noticed cars trying to run over debris after the race. Last year, Alex Bowman was disqualified and subsequently eliminated from the playoffs for failing to make minimum weight after the second-round cutoff race at the Charlotte Roval.

“These teams are pushing it so close to the line on weight,” Forde said. “They know exactly how to math it out where we give them a 17-pound tolerance after the race. In Darlington, we measured every single playoff car, and there were a couple of cars that were within a pound of almost failing and being DQ’d.”

Other topics covered by Forde and NASCAR senior director of racing communications Amanda Ellis during the 32nd episode of “Hauler Talk,” which explores competition issues:

— The backstory of how a brake marker sign fell on the track during the race at World Wide Technology Raceway.

— The continuing trend of drivers getting service from another team’s pit crew.

— How NASCAR decides on stage lengths.

The new right-side tire for the Cup race at Bristol Motor Speedway.

— Round 2 clinch scenarios for the Cup Series playoffs.

— The impact of Austin Hill’s loss of Xfinity Series playoff points.

— What’s ahead for the Cup Series Playoff Committee.

Click on the embed above to listen or search for “Hauler Talk” wherever you download podcasts to hear it on your phone, tablet or mobile device.

Nate Ryan has written about NASCAR since 1996 while working at the San Bernardino Sun, Richmond Times-Dispatch, USA TODAY and for the past 10 years at NBC Sports Digital. He is a contributor to the “Hauler Talk” show on the NASCAR Podcast Network. He also has covered various other motorsports, including the IndyCar and IMSA series.

The NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series heads to Bristol Motor Speedway for Thursday’s UNOH 250 presented by Ohio Logistics (8 p.m. ET, FS1, NASCAR Racing Network Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). It marks the second event in the seven-race tilt for the championship. Truck Series qualifying will begin at 4:10 p.m. ET on Thursday after practice, which starts at 3:05 p.m. ET. Practice and qualifying will both air on FS2.

QUALIFYING ORDER: Cup Series | Xfinity Series | Truck Series

The qualifying order is determined via a metric that combines the previous race finish by owner (70%) and current owner points position (30%).

Thursday’s qualifying session will be one round and two laps.

MORE: Bristol schedule | How to watch the Truck Series on FS1, FS2

# denotes series rookie
(i) denotes ineligible for driver points
(P) denotes playoff driver

POS.CAR NO.DRIVERMETRIC SCOREPRACTICE GROUP
195Clay Greenfield43.41
235Greg Van Alst42.81
341Connor Jones42.21
462Cole Butcher40.41
56Norm Benning39.21
675Parker Kligerman38.61
774Caleb Costner31.61
822Josh Reaume31.41
92Clayton Green31.01
1002Treyton Lapcevich (i)27.61
1142Matt Mills27.21
1233Mason Maggio (i)26.61
135Toni Breidinger #24.91
1476Spencer Boyd23.91
1526Dawson Sutton #20.81
1645Bayley Currey20.81
1720Stefan Parsons20.71
1888Matt Crafton20.71
1917Giovanni Ruggiero #19.91
2077Corey LaJoie17.92
2191Jack Wood17.02
2244Andres Perez de Lara #16.32
2381Connor Mosack #14.82
2499Ben Rhodes11.92
2515Tanner Gray9.02
261Brent Crews8.92
2738Chandler Smith (P)23.72
2852Kaden Honeycutt (P)15.62
2934Layne Riggs (P)12.52
3071Rajah Caruth (P)10.82
3113Jake Garcia (P)10.62
327Corey Day (i) (P)8.42
3318Tyler Ankrum (P)6.42
3498Ty Majeski (P)4.62
359Grant Enfinger (P)3.32
3619Daniel Hemric (P)2.32
3711Corey Heim (P)1.02

The NASCAR Cup Series completes the Round of 16 in the 2025 playoffs with the Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway. Qualifying at the 0.533-miler begins at 5:40 p.m. ET on Friday (truTV, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). A 60-minute practice split into two 25-minute groups with a 10-minute break in between is at 4:30 p.m. ET on Friday, also on truTV.

QUALIFYING ORDER: Cup Series | Xfinity Series | Truck Series

The qualifying order below is determined via metric that combines the previous race finish by owner (70%) and current owner points position (30%).

Friday’s qualifying session will be one round and two laps.

The race itself will be on Saturday (7:30 p.m. ET, USA Network, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App).

MORE: How to watch NASCAR on NBC, USA | Driver Cams on HBO Max | Weekend schedule

# denotes series rookie
(i) denotes ineligible for driver points
(P) denotes playoff driver

Pos.Car No.DriversMetric ScoreGroup
167* Corey Heim (i)41.61
266* Chad Finchum40.41
333* Austin Hill (i)40.11
410Ty Dillon33.41
599Daniel Suárez32.61
635* Riley Herbst #32.21
734* Todd Gilliland31.71
838* Zane Smith31.51
94* Noah Gragson31.21
1051Cody Ware31.11
1141Cole Custer28.81
127Justin Haley28.61
1347Ricky Stenhouse Jr.22.71
1416AJ Allmendinger22.41
1543Erik Jones21.61
168Kyle Busch21.41
176Brad Keselowski18.51
1877Carson Hocevar18.01
1971Michael McDowell17.61
2060Ryan Preece14.51
2154Ty Gibbs12.72
2242John Hunter Nemechek11.42
2317Chris Buescher11.42
2421Josh Berry (P)30.02
2548Alex Bowman (P)22.72
2688Shane van Gisbergen # (P)21.72
271Ross Chastain (P)20.12
282Austin Cindric (P)16.92
293Austin Dillon (P)16.52
3045* Tyler Reddick (P)13.32
3124William Byron (P)9.52
325Kyle Larson (P)9.32
3320Christopher Bell (P)7.32
3423* Bubba Wallace (P)6.82
3522Joey Logano (P)6.52
369Chase Elliott (P)4.82
3712Ryan Blaney (P)4.32
3819Chase Briscoe (P)2.02
3911Denny Hamlin (P)1.02