The biggest story of the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs so far? It might be the impressive speed of Toyotas at Darlington and Gateway. Not only have a pair of Joe Gibbs Racing Camrys swept the first two races — with wins from Chase Briscoe and Denny Hamlin — but Toyota drivers have also dominated the Racing-Reference pages for both events. Despite making up just five of 16 cars in the playoff field, Toyota owns six of 10 possible top fives and 12 of 20 possible top 10s, including four top fives and eight top 10s from playoff drivers.

Toyota’s five championship-eligible entries (Hamlin, Briscoe, Christopher Bell, Bubba Wallace and Tyler Reddick) collectively have an average finish of 7.9, much better than their playoff counterparts from Ford (19.0) and Chevy (19.5). As part of that, Toyota carries an impressive combined average Adjusted Points+ index of 230 (or 130% better than Cup average) and a Driver Rating of 108.6. Among OEMs with at least five playoff entries in a year since Driver Rating data became available in 2005, both numbers rank within the top four we’ve seen through the first two races of any postseason.

That gives the Toyotas a case for the most dominant start to a postseason since at least 2005 — definitively trailing only Chevrolet in 2009. That year, Hendrick Motorsports drivers Mark Martin and Jimmie Johnson swept the opening pair of races, part of Chevy’s own set of six total top fives and 10 top 10s from playoff drivers at the start of the playoffs — beginning what they would eventually run up to five consecutive Chevy wins to begin the playoffs, with Johnson, Martin and Jeff Gordon finishing 1-2-3 in the final standings in their Impalas for good measure.
(In 2004, the debut season of the Chase For the Cup, no OEM sent more than four entries to what was then a 10-driver field anyway, with Ford and Dodge splitting the first two races, so it’s fair to call Chevy’s 2009 showing the greatest start in playoff history either way.)
How much does a red-hot start by a manufacturer predict the rest of the playoffs, though?
The bad news for Toyota is that it doesn’t tend to carry over too much from here. Again looking at OEMs with at least five playoff entries going back to 2005, we find that their average finish in the first two races of the playoffs explains only 5% of how their playoff drivers finish over the rest of the playoffs. The explanatory power is higher for Adjusted Points+ (21%) and Driver Rating (39%), but the point remains that no matter how off-the-charts a manufacturer’s early results are, it doesn’t guarantee dominance all playoffs long.
The good news, however, is that the Toyota drivers aren’t necessarily building their case off of just the past few races alone. We detailed before the playoffs how Briscoe had sneakily been the best driver in Cup for most of the summer, and Hamlin has shown zero signs of slowing down this year despite being the series’ oldest full-time driver at age 44. Wallace is having what might be the best season of his career, while Bell and Reddick are perennial threats to make the Championship 4. (One of the two has made it that far in each of the past three seasons.)
Because of all this, our Cup Series playoff forecast model — which uses projected Driver Ratings by track type to simulate the playoffs 10,000 times — gives some Toyota driver or another (whether for JGR or 23XI) a 51% chance to win the 2025 Cup Series title, with Hamlin checking in as the current favorite. Despite claiming only 31% of the entries in the playoff field, Toyota drivers are significantly more likely than that to be represented at each phase of the playoffs:

Two races in, things are going just about as well as could be hoped for by a manufacturer who hasn’t won a title in five years (granted, after previously winning two in three seasons from 2017-19 with Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Busch). In the past, Toyota’s arc in many seasons has followed Hamlin’s — always strongly competitive, but never quite good enough to capture a championship. This year is shaping up to be different, though. Whether it means Hamlin finally gets his long-awaited title, or one of their other contenders earns the crown instead, the numbers say a breakthrough may be at hand for Toyota in these playoffs — and these opening statements might end up being a clear signal of what’s still to come.


