Welcome back to Victory Lane, Tyler Reddick. The No. 45 23XI Racing driver captured the desert dub at Phoenix Raceway for his sixth victory of the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season and his first in this season’s Chase presented by Mobil 1.
Reddick’s thrilling triumph wasn’t the only eye-popper of the weekend, though. With Kyle Larson’s 34th-place finish and just three points earned, the defending Cup champion and current Chase leader saw his points cushion shrink by 44, with every other Chaser gaining markers as a result. Larson and the No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports camp now sit only five points clear of Christopher Bell and the No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing team with three races until a champion is crowned.
RELATED: Phoenix results | Cup Series standings
Of course, Bell isn’t the only driver within striking distance of Larson. Drivers second through seventh in the Chase standings are within 56 markers of the No. 5 driver, split among three separate organizations: Joe Gibbs Racing, Team Penske and 23XI Racing. In this week’s “Last Call” question, our panelists discuss which organization could usurp the Larson/Hendrick duo.
Which organization is best positioned to overtake Larson and Hendrick?
Cameron Richardson: Without a much-needed Phoenix win for Ryan Blaney or Joey Logano, the hill is a lot steeper for either Team Penske driver to get to the championship. However, Talladega and Martinsville back-to-back couldn’t line up any better for them with their backs against the wall. If the updated rules package for Sunday’s race plays out similarly to Daytona in the summer, it could see Penske back to its usual dominance on superspeedways. Blaney, Logano and even teammate Austin Cindric are familiar with Victory Lane on NASCAR’s largest oval, and the synergy between the three could be the difference maker versus Joe Gibbs Racing’s Bell, Hamlin and Briscoe, who will want to overtake each other on points all day instead of work together. Martinsville has been a playground for Blaney in the fall with two wins and no finish worse than third over his last four postseason trips, while Logano has finished top 10 in 14 consecutive events at the Virginia short track. Homestead is a bigger question for Penske, but the key factor for the organization right now is to run up front and finish at Talladega. Accomplish that, and the 2026 trophy is well within reach.
Dustin Albino: Given Joe Gibbs Racing has three bullets in the chamber, the powerhouse Toyota team is inching closer to the No. 5 Chevrolet. Sure, Team Penske should be among the pre-race favorites for the next two weekends, but there is very little weakness in JGR’s game across any style of race track. Christopher Bell is the closest he’s been to the championship lead all season, and though he has a single victory in the first 33 races, the No. 20 team has been ultra-consistent with eight runner-up finishes. Chase Briscoe is on a career heater, gaining 99 points on Larson in the last three races alone while posting a 3.5 average finish over his last four starts, his best four-race stretch ever. Meanwhile, Denny Hamlin and the No. 11 team have stumbled out of the gate with plenty of missed opportunities. Given how strong their regular season was, it would seem likely that the Chris Gayle-led team will find their mojo in the next few weeks.
Zack Albert: With three championship contenders lined up 2-3-4 in The Chase standings (Bell, Briscoe and Hamlin, in that order), the most prime of challenging positions belong to Joe Gibbs Racing. Beyond the points proximity, JGR bolsters its case through its yearlong excellence, plus a history of winning at the three tracks that loom on the schedule. With nods to Team Penske’s prowess at Martinsville and Reddick’s statistical knack for Talladega and Homestead, their deficits — 40 points or more — feel like a tall though not impossible hurdle. Though Talladega’s treacherous nature could deal another serious shake-up to the postseason field, JGR’s three-pronged attack is within much closer reach of its first Cup crown since 2019, the last time Homestead-Miami Speedway hosted the season finale. A full-circle moment this year seems nigh.
Pat DeCola: It feels a little ridiculous to call the guy with a series-best six wins this season a dark horse, but here we are. Tyler Reddick sits seventh in The Chase, 56 points behind Larson, yet may have one of the clearest paths to the title with past victories at two of the three tracks remaining — Talladega and Homestead — including that unforgettable last-lap pass in Miami just two years ago. Sunday’s Phoenix win was a pretty emphatic reminder that the 23XI team that won five of the first nine races hasn’t disappeared, either. Martinsville is the obvious question mark, but with victories worth as much as they are in this format, I’m not sure I’d bet against an organization that’s already proven it can win on just about anything, and I wouldn’t rule out a similar run to close the season in the same fashion it opened it.
Zach Sturniolo: No team has a better reputation for coming to life at the end of the season than Team Penske. And with both Ryan Blaney (minus-40) and Joey Logano (minus-44) within striking distance with three strong tracks ahead in their pursuit, this championship might just be Team Penske’s for the taking. Kyle Larson and the No. 5 Hendrick team represent a mountainous obstacle in front of this duo of teammates. But consider Blaney’s track record at each of the three tracks ahead, and that mountain slowly starts looking more like a hill: three wins at Talladega, two at Martinsville and three near-misses at Homestead, where he’s led 47 or more laps in each of his last three starts. Logano, just four points back of Blaney, is also a three-time ‘Dega winner in addition to single wins at Martinsville and Homestead. The task is never easy in the Cup Series, but Team Penske has quite an edge this time of year that should not be ignored.
