‘Every loss stings’: Another heartbreaker for Keselowski after Atlanta runner-up

Posted on June 29, 2025June 29, 2025 by Cameron Richardson

HAMPTON, Ga. — Sometimes, it’s just not meant to be.

Brad Keselowski’s 2025 season has been summed up in what-could-have-beens so far and it crescendoed Saturday evening at EchoPark Speedway as the No. 6 RFK Racing driver was passed by Chase Elliott on the final lap for the win in a thriller.

Underneath the roar of tens of thousands of fans for the home-state favorite in Elliott, Keselowski could only lament not being the one performing a burnout under the lights as he settled for a runner-up finish.

RELATED: Race results | At-track photos: Atlanta

“He just had the 48 behind him giving him a huge push and nothing I could do to cover that,” Keselowski said of Elliott’s pass entering Turn 1 on the last lap. “When we had our cars linked up at RFK, we could do the same thing and we lost that. Then it was just kind of a two-on-one, and fought as hard as I could.”

From the drop of the green flag, the racing was intense.

Throughout the 40-car field, aggressive moves were being made to move toward the front. The heat from the day made the opening laps treacherous as many drivers reported ill-handling hot rods and the race hit a massive turning point with a Lap 76 melee as 23 cars piled up entering Turn 3, wiping out more than half the field from contention.

Keselowski was among those caught up in the mess, but was fortunate enough to resume and continue dicing it up with a much smaller lead pack.

The 2012 Cup titleholder was among the 13 leaders, pacing the field for 46 circuits and playing a big role in the 46 exchanges for the top spot. No. 6 crew chief Jeremy Bullins made note of how the thinned-out field changed the dynamics of Atlanta versus how it raced in the spring.

“I think a lot of it was a product of having some bigger wrecks and wiping out a lot of good cars, and having less cars at the front — just seemed like the runs were bigger,” Bullins told NASCAR.com. “You didn’t have as many cars packed up, so you’re getting big runs and just guys able to take advantage of them. Once we got split up from our teammates there, just kind of in a bad spot with with no help behind us and two Hendrick cars coming. Just part of it.”

Alejandro Alvarez | NASCAR Digital Media

Not even seven days removed from a potential Pocono victory where Keselowski and the No. 6 team made a pair of pit-road mistakes to fall out of contention, they appeared to hit everything right in the Peach State.

Keselowski held his position up front for the final half of the evening and was the driver to beat when Elliott took the point with under two miles to go.

MORE: See where Keselowski stacks up in points

Instead of becoming the 12th different winner this season, Keselowski remains in an uphill battle for a spot in the playoffs as he remains well outside the bubble. However, there were some bragging rights snagged as the 41-year-old won his In-Season Challenge first-round matchup over Kyle Busch and will go head-to-head with 32-seeded Ty Dillon as Dillon busted the bracket, defeating top-seed Denny Hamlin.

Without the checkered flag though, it’s just another sting out of the hornets’ nest of a campaign for Keselowski this year and it’s on to the Chicago Street Course next Sunday (2 p.m. ET, TNT Sports/truTV, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) with eight races left for the No. 6 team to find their way into the postseason.

Keselowski: “It ain’t over till it’s over … Every loss stings.”

Bullins: “They all sting when you don’t win them, but yeah, when you’re that close, it’s going to sting for a little bit.”

Posted on June 29, 2025June 30, 2025 by Alex Cadavid

With the first of five races down in the inaugural In-Season Challenge, 16 drivers now advance to Round 2 at the Chicago Street Course and continue the head-to-head frenzy for $1 million. Atlanta delivered early upsets and bracket-busting drama, proving no seed is safe. With elimination on the line each week, the pressure only intensifies from here.

Here’s where we stand after Challenge Round 1 at EchoPark Speedway:

EchoPark race winner: Sound the si-reen! Chase Elliott won at his home track with an epic last-lap pass around Brad Keselowski. Ultimately, the decision to stay out and play defense on Lap 230 was the right gamble. It allowed Elliott to restart second, and from there until the checkered flag, the No. 9 car just had to keep the leaders in sight until he was able to make his maneuver on the inside of Keselowski on the final lap. His top-20 consistency was bound to pay off at some point with a win as he also avoided calamity all night.

Who advances to Round 2:

Advancing with Elliott to the next round are: (3) Chris Buescher, (6) Ty Gibbs, (8) Alex Bowman, (9) Bubba Wallace, (12) John Hunter Nemechek, (14) Zane Smith, (15) Ryan Preece, (17) Brad Keselowski, (20) Erik Jones, (22) AJ Allmendinger, (23) Tyler Reddick, (26) Carson Hocevar, (29) Ricky Stenhouse Jr., (31) Noah Gragson and (32) Ty Dillon.

The most eye-catching driver from this group is Dillon, as the No. 32 seed left Atlanta with a huge upset over top-ranked Denny Hamlin. Dillon was ahead of Hamlin for most of the race after Hamlin got caught in the huge melee to start Stage 2, but also qualified 14th and ran around the top 10 for a majority of the 260-lap event. It’s a long shot for his “Cinderella run” to continue, but he delivered an ultimate stunner in Round 1.

Most interesting matchup in Round 2 of the challenge: No. 8 seed Alex Bowman vs. No. 9 seed Bubba Wallace. These two had a bit of a dust-up at the end of last year’s Chicago Street Race, so how will things fare this time around with a hefty payday on the line? Bowman is the defending winner and enters with a more significant road-course advantage. However, Wallace qualified in the top 15 both years at Chicago and finished 13th last year, which is enough to keep this battle at Grant Park interesting.

Who’s up

Tyler Reddick, No. 45 23XI Racing Toyota. Winning the matchup of the week over Kyle Larson, the No. 23-seeded driver fought an uphill battle with a tight-handling car early in the race. However, being one of four cars not involved in a wreck and winning Stage 2 by an eyelash over Elliott helps turn the tide. His fourth-place finish gives solid momentum into a track where he finished runner-up last year, plus he owns three road-course wins at the Cup level.

Who’s down

Carson Hocevar, No. 77 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet. The young driver keeps his $1 million hopes alive after Ryan Blaney wrecked out in Stage 2, and while a top-10 finish isn’t bad on paper, his matchup against Reddick does not favor him. In seven road-course starts at the Cup level, Hocevar has six finishes of 12th or worse. He had a third-place finish last year at Watkins Glen, but the tight corners in the “Windy City” are a different challenge.

Posted on June 28, 2025June 29, 2025 by Reid Spencer

HAMPTON, Ga. — Timing his pass on the last lap to perfection, Georgia native Chase Elliott charged past Brad Keselowski and held off the driver of the No. 6 Ford to win Saturday night’s Quaker State 400 at Echo Park Speedway.

The popular victory in the first event of the NASCAR Cup Series’ In-Season Challenge broke a 44-race drought for Elliott dating to last year’s win at Texas Motor Speedway. The win was the second at EchoPark for the driver of the No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet and the 20th of his career.

Elliott crossed the finish line 0.168 seconds ahead of Keselowski and 0.170 seconds in front of teammate and third-place finisher Alex Bowman.

RELATED: Race results | At-track photos: Atlanta

The 29-year-old from Dawsonville, Georgia, advances to the second round of the five-race In-Season Challenge, eliminating first-round opponent Austin Dillon, who finished 20th.

In a race that featured 46 lead changes among 13 drivers, Elliott got a welcome push from Bowman on the final two laps, stranding Keselowski with no help for a final charge.

“Unbelievable … unbelievable. How about that? Are you kidding me?” Elliott said with an uncharacteristic display of emotion. “I’ve never in my life. … This is unbelievable. Thank you guys so much.

“What a special car, and just a huge thanks to [sponsor] NAPA Auto Parts and everything they do for me and to benefit Children’s Healthcare of Atlanta. [Cancer patient] Rhealynn Mills designed the fast NAPA Chevrolet tonight, so this was a lot of fun. This right here is something I’ll never forget.”

In the closing laps, Elliott was quick to seize the opportunity that came his way.

“Well, I just think that, honestly, all the cards fell in the right places there those last couple laps,” he acknowledged. “What a crazy race, man. I don’t know if y’all had fun, but it was wild from my seat. I’m so glad we got to run that thing out there to the end.”

Keselowski led 46 laps, including circuits 255-259 of 260, and advanced past 21st-place finisher Kyle Busch in the In-Season Challenge, but he had no defense for Elliott’s final push.

“The 9 [Elliott] just had the 48 [Bowman] behind him giving him a huge push, and there was nothing I could do to cover that,” Keselowski said. “When we had our cars linked up at RFK [Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing], we could do the same thing, but we lost that, and it was just kind of a two-on-one, and I fought as hard as I could.”

Tyler Reddick came home fourth, followed by Erik Jones. Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Zane Smith, Ty Dillon, Chris Buescher and Carson Hocevar to complete the top 10.

SHOP: Winner gear

The 18th event of the Cup Series regular season got off to a slow start that belied the intense action that would come later in the proceedings. A delay for a light rain stopped the race for 14 minutes, 34 seconds after 36 laps, with Joey Logano out front for the entire stint after starting from the pole.

After the resumption of green-flag racing on Lap 49, the first of two major wrecks was just eight circuits away. On Lap 57, Christopher Bell turned sideways near the apex of Turns 3 and 4, igniting a seven-car wreck that sent the cars of Bell and Ryan Blaney to the garage for attempted repairs.

“I saw a couple guys spinning and slowing,” Blaney said. “I got to the apron and there was really nowhere else for me to go but the apron. I tried to get there and get clear of it, but they kind of came down and got me in the right-rear and I ended up in the fence.

“There was no missing that one.”

That was just the appetizer. On the backstretch after a restart on Lap 69, Buescher lifted to avoid running into then-leader Chase Elliott and the field accordioned behind him, sending cars spinning out of control and into each other.

In a wreck that inflicted varying degrees of damage on 22 of the 40 cars, the vehicles of Ross Chastain, William Byron, Daniel Suárez, Denny Hamlin, Chase Briscoe, Austin Cindric, Josh Berry and Corey LaJoie all found their way to the garage — several on wrecker — a result of the multicar pileup.

Byron exited in 36th place.

“There wasn’t really a whole lot I could see,” said the two-time Daytona 500 winner. “I was kind of catching the No. 22 [Logano] with a little bit of a run. All the guys at the front had pitted during the stage break and cycled to the mid-20s.

“We were just running a great race in the top five. They all stacked up and at that point, I went right a little bit; the wreck was already happening, and I just kind of got shoved into it.”

WATCH: Front seat views of the ‘Big One’ in Stage 2

Needless to say, the two major incidents had enormous implications for the In-Season Challenge. Hamlin, the top seed, fell victim to 32nd seed Ty Dillon in the biggest upset of the opening round.

“For all you Denny fans out there, I just beat your favorite driver,” Dillon quipped afterward, borrowing from one of Hamin’s signature phrases.

Second-seeded Briscoe was ousted by close friend Noah Gragson, who survived the major incidents and finished 25th. Byron bowed out to Ryan Preece, who finished 15th.

Joining Elliott, Keselowski, Ty Dillon, Preece and Gragson in advancing to the second round were Bowman, Bubba Wallace, John Hunter Nemechek, Jones, Hocevar, Reddick (eliminating Kyle Larson), AJ Allmendinger, Ty Gibbs and Smith.

The race featured 10 cautions for 68 laps. Logano led twice for a race-high 51 laps before exiting after the Lap 69 crash. Austin Cindric won the first stage. Reddick edged Elliott for the Stage 2 win by 0.001 seconds.

The Cup Series returns to action next Sunday for the Grant Park 165 in the “Windy City,” with drivers set to tackle the twists and turns of the Chicago Street Course (2 p.m. ET, TNT Sports/truTV, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

Note: Inspection in the NASCAR Cup Series garage was completed with no issues, confirming Elliott as the winner.

Posted on June 28, 2025June 29, 2025 by Staff Report

The red flag came out on Lap 70 of Saturday night’s NASCAR Cup Series In-Season Challenge opener at EchoPark Speedway (formerly known as Atlanta Motor Speedway) after a huge multicar wreck involved nearly half of the 40-car field.

The wreck ignited when Denny Hamlin got spun in the middle of the pack on the backstretch early in Stage 2 as chaos ensued. Multiple drivers were involved, including Stage 1 winner Austin Cindric, causing another huge shake-up of In-Season Challenge brackets.

“I had a small chance to get through a gap there, but obviously it didn’t work out,” Cindric said. “It’s a shame. Obviously, we had a super fast Quaker State/Menards Ford Mustang. We wanted to keep the thing out front.

“I was looking forward to it because we got back in traffic with staying out to win the stage, but I was looking forward to see what our car was gonna do in dirty air and see what final adjustments we needed to make and have that opportunity to learn there. It’s just a shame and a shame for everybody at Team Penske bringing such fast cars and all of them wreck out.”

RELATED: Race results | At-track photos: Atlanta

Polesitter Joey Logano was also among those taken out of the race in this wreck. Before getting caught up in the melee, the driver of the No. 22 Ford led 51 laps in the Peach State.

“Just the wrong place at the wrong time,” Logano said. “It’s a real bummer. The Autotrader Mustang wasn’t too bad. It had speed. We were gonna have to work on handling, no doubt, but it hurts to see so many of our cars – all four of our cars that were lights out – none of them are even running anymore.”

Other drivers involved included: William Byron, Chase Briscoe, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Preece and Daniel Suárez.

Before this wreck occurred, Christopher Bell and Ryan Blaney were taken out of contention late in Stage 1 when Bell was spun after contact with Kyle Larson, as Ryan Blaney got clipped in the right rear and was sent hard into the outside wall in Turn 4 after getting clipped by the spinning Austin Dillon.

Posted on June 28, 2025June 29, 2025 by Staff Report

Coming to three laps to go in Stage 1 of the NASCAR Cup Series In-Season Challenger opener at EchoPark Speedway in Atlanta, a multicar wreck turned many brackets upside down as favorites Christopher Bell and Ryan Blaney were taken out of contention in Saturday night’s 400-miler.

In Turn 4, Bell’s No. 20 Toyota got sideways after contact with Kyle Larson. Then, Bubba Wallace crashed into the spinning Bell.

Blaney got turned hard into the outside wall when Austin Dillon spun and clipped the No. 12 Ford driver’s right rear.

“As usual for this year, got caught up in someone else’s mess,” Blaney said after being clear from the infield care center. “I got to the apron and there was really nowhere else for me to go but the apron. I tried to get there and get clear of it, but they kind of came down and got me in the right-rear and I ended up in the fence. There was no missing that one.”

RELATED: Race results | At-track photos: Atlanta

The multicar wreck caused a shake-up in the In-Season Challenge, with No. 29 seed Ricky Stenhouse Jr. advancing to Round 2 over Bell and No. 26 seed Carson Hocevar ahead of Blaney in their head-to-head matchup.

Chase Elliott went on to win the Cup Series race at EchoPark Speedway.

Posted on June 28, 2025 by Staff Report

Can’t wait any longer to go Inside the Race following each NASCAR Cup Series event?

Visit our NASCAR YouTube page Sunday, June 29, at 10 a.m. ET to get a live breakdown and analysis from veteran crew chief and broadcaster Steve Letarte, alongside additional co-hosts and reporters from the track.

Sunday’s show will analyze Saturday night’s race at EchoPark Speedway (formerly known as Atlanta Motor Speedway). Analyst and championship-winning crew chief Todd Gordon will join Letarte to dissect the winning and losing moves, plus other top story lines. Kyle Petty and Cup Series driver Todd Gilliland will join as well.

Bookmark the stream below or just come back to this page to watch live on Sunday at 10 a.m. ET.

Posted on June 28, 2025June 28, 2025 by Zack Albert

LAKEVILLE, Conn. — The NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series’ first visit to historic Lime Rock Park ended with more drama than the stat sheet might show. Corey Heim led 99 of the 100 laps to win with dominating flair for the fifth time this year, but a final restart upended the outcome for several other podium contenders.

The last green flag of Saturday’s LiUNA! 150 touched off first-turn bedlam at the 1.487-mile road course, with the narrow, right-hand sweeper running out of room in a hurry at the end of the long Sam Posey Straight. The intensity opened doors for Ty Majeski and Gio Ruggiero behind Heim, while a handful of other competitors found dust clouds and hard feelings.

RELATED: Race results | Heim rolls at Lime Rock

Few took it as hard as Layne Riggs, who pressed hard alongside Heim’s No. 11 Toyota in a last-ditch effort to take command, but wound up washing wide through the corner with tires smoking on his No. 34 Front Row Motorsports Ford.

“I just kind of overcooked the corner,” said Riggs, who ran second for most of the day but dipped to 13th in the final rundown. “I had my braking point for restarts, and I just didn’t really take into factor that we had used tires on as much as I needed to and just overcooked it. So I’m just really disappointed right now. I’m beating myself up and just feel like we deserved at least a second-place finish. The 11 was kind of toying with us all day. They were really, really good, so congrats to them. They deserve that win. But I’m just mad that I wasn’t able to finish second like we deserved to.”

Behind Riggs’ slide-out into the trackside grass was further chaos, set up after Matt Mills’ off-course excursion that brought out the final yellow flag with 11 laps left. IMSA talent Jordan Taylor, making his first NASCAR venture in nearly two years with Spire Motorsports, bulled into Turn 1 with his No. 7 Chevrolet sliding out of control, collecting others as he pinballed in. The miscue cost him a likely top-five result and dropped him to 20th in the 34-truck field.

Heim wasn’t the only one to scoot free. Defending series champ Majeski landed his best finish of the season in second place, and crew chief Joe Shear Jr. shared a laugh with officials post-race at his No. 98 ThorSport Racing team’s good fortune to miss the melee.

“We were probably gonna finish third or fourth if that last caution didn’t come out, and (Riggs) overshot Turn 1 a little bit,” Majeski said. “And yeah, we ended up getting a couple spots out of that last caution, so yeah, they parted, but we had a good run. So, proud of the effort for our 98 Soda Sense Ford F-150 and needed some momentum like this headed into these last few races before the playoffs.”

When Majeski emerged from his truck on pit road post-race, Ruggiero was there to greet him with a fist bump after coming home third in his No. 17 Tricon Garage Toyota. Ruggiero said his choice of the inside lane for the restart ended up being the right call. “Just had to stay out of the mess,” the 20-year-old rookie said, noting how Heim — his Tricon teammate — seemed uncatchable.

“I knew it was going to be bad going into (turn) one, so I just tried to stay out of it,” Ruggiero said. “Came out in third out of (turn) two, and just had a decent truck today. Just didn’t have a lot of track position. It was super hard to pass the whole race, but there at the end, I definitely had enough speed to hang with the 98 (Majeski) and the 11 (Heim), but I don’t think anybody had anything for that 11 all day.”

One of the hardest hit by Taylor’s skid into Turn 1 was Connor Mosack, who lined up third for the final restart and ran most of the day in the top five. A season-best finish seemed likely, right on the heels of a respectable sixth the previous weekend at Pocono, but his No. 81 McAnally Hilgemann Racing Chevy ended with a mangled front end and a 16th-place result.

“It started with the 7 (Taylor) running us over into (turn) one and running us off the track — along with like five other trucks — and that kind of got us back in the pack,” said Mosack, in his first full season of Truck Series competition. “The 1 (Brent Crews) and I had a little bit of contact on one of the early restarts, and I understand him being upset about that, but he just went way overboard with it, ran me off the track in three, came back on and hooked me in four, and then tried to drive me into the tire barriers on exit and I missed it by literally an inch from just going head-on in the wall. So definitely going to remember that one next time we’re racing together.”

While Majeski and Ruggiero were close to each other in Saturday’s results, the two left Lime Rock still on opposite ends of the playoff bubble. Majeski clings to the final spot in the provisional 10-driver postseason field, 38 points above the elimination line with three regular-season races remaining — Lucas Oil Indianapolis Raceway Park (July 25), Watkins Glen (Aug. 8) and Richmond (Aug. 15).

MORE: At-track photos: Lime Rock, Atlanta

Majeski is still seeking a playoff-clinching first win of the season, but Heim adding to his victory total actually helped him, preventing another new winner from locking into the grid.

“At this point, if somebody’s gonna win, we want it to be him,” Majeski said. “We don’t want somebody else to win and jump us in the playoffs. So overall, a solid day for us and glad we were able to get a good finish and good points day.”

Ruggiero is 12th on the playoff leaderboard, 65 points behind the elimination line and just behind ThorSport’s Jake Garcia (minus-38). Like Majeski, he’s still aiming for a playoff-sealing win, but left Lime Rock with his best finish since a runner-up effort in the Daytona season opener.

“I don’t know. I mean, just got to keep fighting for these top fives and top threes, and a win will come,” Ruggiero said. “We’ve got IRP and another road course and another short track left for us to get into the playoffs. So just got to pull off a win somehow.”

Posted on June 28, 2025June 28, 2025 by Reid Spencer

Corey Heim’s victory in the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series’ debut at Lime Rock Park wasn’t just a case of domination. It was an eyelash away from perfection.

Heim led 99 of 100 laps at the 1.478-mile road course in bucolic Lakeville, Connecticut, to win the LiUNA! 150 — his fifth victory of the season and the 16th of his career.

The only lap Heim failed to lead came on a restart with five laps left after Matt Mills ran off course and stalled near Turn 1 on Lap 90. Layne Riggs beat Heim to the start/finish line on Lap 96 but drove hard into the first corner and stacked up the field behind him, scrambling positions two through five.

Aside from the one lap he didn’t lead, Heim’s performance was the model of consistent excellence. The driver of the No. 11 Tricon Garage Toyota posted the fastest lap of the race on his second circuit (54.941 seconds), swept both stages, and posted dramatic margins over his closest pursuers in each of the first two segments.

Heim is the first driver in Truck Series history to win three straight road-course races, having triumphed at Mid-Ohio in 2023 and Circuit of The Americas last year.

“Yeah, that was nothing short of incredible,” Heim acknowledged. “These road courses — I really look forward to them, pre-event and whatnot, and I really prepare for them, so to see all that pay off with (sponsor) Safelite, Tricon, Toyota, it’s super special.

“Obviously, the truck was so good today. I can’t complain one bit about that. A flawless day and we will take that and move forward and try and collect some wins that we should have had this year.”

MORE: Hear from Heim in Victory Lane

Reigning series champion Ty Majeski was the beneficiary of Riggs’ aggressive charge into Turn 1 on the final restart. Majeski inherited the runner-up position and crossed the finish line 1.381 seconds behind Heim.

“Honestly, we struggled with the truck a little bit to fire off,” Majeski said. “We kept getting it better progressively each and every run. So, got it close at the end, had a shot at Corey and probably got a little over-zealous in Turn 4, hit the curb and kind of ruined my shot to make him a least a little nervous and try to force him into a mistake.

“From there, he just got too much breathing room and was kind of able to do his thing. Overall, really good day. This is the point when I want to turn our season around — going to IRP (Lucas Oil Indianapolis Raceway Park), Watkins Glen and Richmond next. Three really good tracks for us, so I’m excited for this playoff stretch.”

Rookie Giovanni Ruggiero ran third, followed by Ben Rhodes and Australian Cam Waters as ThorSport Racing put three drivers in the top five (Majeski, Rhodes and Waters).

Riggs fell to 12th during the Turn 1 melee and finished 13th. Road-course ace Jordan Taylor, who finished third in the first two stages, dropped to 20th at the finish.

Heim started from the pole and led all 35 laps in Stage 1, building an advantage of 7.065 seconds over second-place Riggs at the first green/checkered flag. Third-place Taylor, a star in the sportscar ranks, was 14.051 seconds in arrears at the first stage break.

After Lap 37, the race trucks came to pit road for a controlled stop under red-flag conditions. The restart on Lap 40 brought no changes at the front of the field. Heim cleared Riggs through the first two corners and quickly expanded his advantage over the second-place truck.

The second stage mirrored the first. Heim beat Riggs to the finish line by 7.281 seconds, with Taylor in third trailing by 14.286 seconds. The two stage wins were the 13th and 14th for Heim this season.

Note: Inspection in the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series garage was clear, confirming Heim as the winner. No trucks were headed back to the NASCAR R&D Center in Concord, North Carolina, for further inspection.

Posted on June 28, 2025 by Nick Giffen

NASCAR returns to Atlanta for the Quaker State 400 (7 p.m. ET, TNT Sports, truTV, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), racing at the newly renamed EchoPark Speedway for the second time in 2025.

EchoPark is a 1.5-mile drafting track, and at drafting tracks, unpredictability is the name of the game. There have been seven races at EchoPark under its current configuration, and by using pre-race data available to us, even the best statistical models have only been able to squeeze out, on average, around 13% of the variance in finishing position, leaving a full 87% unexplained from data like track history, drafting track history and current performance overall.

When that’s the case, it’s best to size down and sprinkle a few long shots and hope they hit.

That’s exactly what I’m doing today. I’ll throw a few bucks on some long shot manufacturer bets, and hope one hits.

I’ll be fully relying on my model to show us where certain drivers have a better chance of finishing higher in the order than their betting odds imply, thanks to the random nature of these races.

EchoPark Speedway: Quaker State 400 Best Bets

By manufacturer, here are the odds I have for each driver finishing as the tops in their camp, compared to their betting odds.

Chevrolet

I’m fine betting both of the drivers I list below and agree with my model.

Alex Bowman

My odds: 10% (+900 fair value)
DraftKings: +1500

Austin Dillon

My odds: 4.7% (+2020 fair value)
DraftKings: +3000

Ford

I’m fine betting on both of the blue ovals my model finds as value, and definitely agree with it.

Just be aware that it’s going to be awfully hard to beat the Team Penske trio of Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano and Austin Cindric.

That said, three of seven Atlanta races had finishing results resembling pure chaos, three had about 25% predictability, and one was in between.

For one of these to hit, you’re hoping for a bit more chaos, but they can still hit even with a bit more of an orderly finish.

Ryan Preece

My odds: 10.0% (+900 fair value)
DraftKings: +1400

Noah Gragson

My odds: 6.5% (+1440 fair value)
DraftKings: +2200

Toyota

There are only nine Toyotas in the field, and my model doesn’t value Denny Hamlin much here, and on drafting tracks in general, where he’s struggled to replicate his form from previous generations of cars. Hamlin has no finish better than fourth, just two top fives, and five top 10 in 21 drafting track starts.

That opens up value on four drivers by my model.

Tyler Reddick

My odds: 17.6%% (+470 fair value)
DraftKings: +600

Chase Briscoe

My odds: 11.5% (+775 fair value)
DraftKings: +850

Erik Jones

My odds: 9.4% (+960 fair value)
DraftKings: +1600

Riley Herbst

My odds: 5.4% (+1765 fair value)
DraftKings: +2000

Summary

Be sure to size your bet right so if one of the drivers in each camp hits, you’ll profit. This is most important with the Toyota camp, where the model is on four drivers.

If you are a $10 per unit bettor, you could divide your $10 unit as $4 on Reddick, $3 on Briscoe, $1.65 on Jones, and $1.35 on Herbst to get a profit between $18 to $18.5 dollars no matter which of these four is the top Toyota driver.

And if you shop around, you may be able to find even better prices.

Posted on June 28, 2025June 28, 2025 by Cameron Richardson

HAMPTON, Ga. — There’s nothing like underdogs during a tournament. Whether it’s March Madness or the Stanley Cup Playoffs, a knockout-style format always offers fans some sleepers to support, and the debut of NASCAR’s In-Season Challenge this weekend at EchoPark Speedway is no different.

Two such underdogs entering the 32-driver tournament are Spire Motorsports’ Michael McDowell and Kaulig Racing’s AJ Allmendinger.

The pair of drivers will face off in the first round in Atlanta Saturday night (7 ET, TNT Sports/truTV, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) as the 11th and 22nd seeds, respectively. While both have shown their strengths on drafting-style tracks, the next two weekends will be their bread and butter with the Chicago Street Course and Sonoma Raceway on the horizon.

Only one of them will remain in the In-Season Challenge after Atlanta, and whoever is the winner will have a golden chance for a “Cinderella” run in the tournament.

“Honestly, I wish I wasn’t matched up against him here because this is a good track for him,” McDowell said. “Obviously, it’s a good track for us too, but I think that his strengths and his tracks line up on my strengths and my tracks too so either way, one of us will make a lot of noise.”

McDowell, a two-time Cup winner with both coming at a superspeedway (Daytona, 2021) and a road course (Indianapolis, 2023), earned the higher seed after a top-five run in Mexico City. The 40-year-old mainstay scored a pair of top fives last year at Sonoma and Chicago, which will make him a serious threat to advance all the way to the semifinals that will take place at Dover Motor Speedway next month.

On the other end, Allmendinger doesn’t love his Chicago numbers — finishes of 17th and 38th in his two starts on the street course through Grant Park — but his three Cup wins have all come on road courses (Watkins Glen, Indianapolis, Charlotte Roval) and the No. 16 Chevrolet is always in the mix when the circuit shifts to left and right-turn venues.

Allmendinger says he won’t be thinking about McDowell until the checkered flag, with the style of racing Atlanta offers, as they’ll see each other plenty during the 400-miler.

“I think people are probably begging that I beat McDowell in it right now,” Allmendinger jokingly said about his Chicago stats. “It’s fun. It’s gonna be interesting. This race is unique, right? Because you can’t look at that during the race, because we’re gonna pass each other 100 times during the race if nothing happens. So it’s not like you kind of base it off of like, ‘oh, he’s struggling’ or I’m struggling on speed. But, yeah, I think if you ask us both and we’re standing next to each other, we know that whoever takes the other person out of the first round, it helps themselves a lot for the next couple.”

Allmendinger also noted that there’s a lot of great road-course drivers in the Cup Series so there’s no guarantee either he or McDowell will make a deep run, but Allmendinger is enjoying the talk and all the buildup for the In-Season Challenge while also focusing on the task at hand at winning his way into the Cup Playoffs Saturday evening.

“It’s a fun little tournament that NASCAR’s put on and I think the drivers are gonna enjoy,” Allmendinger said. “It’s just this race, you can’t think about it because it’s a superspeedway race, so you’re gonna have a lot that happens throughout this race.”