The first time that Joe Gibbs Racing dealt with internal driver strife was also the first season that the organization dealt with having teammates.
This may come as no surprise given that Tony Stewart was the key piece in JGR’s expansion to two cars in the 1999 season.
Hired for the team’s new No. 20 ride, the mercurial superstar nicknamed “Smoke” ignited the tensions at Homestead-Miami Speedway when he bumped teammate Bobby Labonte out of the groove and then scooted away to the third victory of his rookie season.
“That little (expletive) better run off to Ray Evernham before I get my hands on him,” the typically mild-mannered Labonte radioed his No. 18 team after the incident with Stewart, who reportedly was being courted by Evernham for a new Dodge team.
There was no doubt that Joe Gibbs was immediately aware of the suddenly very public rift. The team owner was in the broadcast booth as an NBC announcer and addressed the awkwardness in real time on national TV.
“Both these guys are very, very competitive,” Gibbs said. “We’ve never had a deal at our race team. It’s whoever can win it. That was a very close call there, and I think both these guys are very aggressive and wanting to win it.”
With only a race remaining in the season, the feud burned out quickly. Labonte won the 2000 championship, and Stewart was crowned in 2002 and ’05. The JGR duo got along swimmingly for the better part of seven seasons (as Stewart regularly feuded with other drivers, the media and NASCAR).
More than a quarter-century later, JGR remains a powerhouse in spite of its occasionally unwanted turns as NASCAR’s Team Turmoil.
The latest intrasquad blowup — last Sunday’s skirmish at New Hampshire Motor Speedway between Denny Hamlin and Ty Gibbs — is part and parcel of why Joe Gibbs has won a combined eight championships as an NFL coach and a NASCAR team owner.
As long as they produce results, his drivers and players are allowed the latitude to be themselves, even if that means repercussions from when they invariably step over the line.
In professional sports, it’s known as being a “player’s coach,” and the Washington football rosters that won three Super Bowls for Gibbs are indicative of the laissez-faire approach to team management. It’s highly unlikely that colorful and controversial stars such as Gary Clark, John Riggins and Dexter Manley would have flourished with coaches who were rigid disciplinarians.
There’s a similar through line in JGR’s NASCAR lineups.
For every Labonte, Matt Kenseth and Christopher Bell who have won for JGR with a soft-spoken and steady understatement, the team equally has embraced the combustible personalities who have mixed in some headaches amid their trips to Victory Lane.
After a 10-year tour of duty with at least one annual hullabaloo, Stewart’s last JGR season in 2008 was the team’s first with Kyle Busch — who made just as many headlines during 15 seasons of smashing guitars, flipping off former team members and throwing punches.
Bridging those two eras in his 20th full Cup season at JGR (and signed on for at least two more), Hamlin has grown into relishing his role as the outspoken villain with a podcast that he uses to push people’s buttons.
There are some fresh wrinkles with the latest dust-up at JGR — Hamlin, who is trying to win a championship, spun Ty Gibbs, who is the team owner’s grandson — but the party line remained the same from the “player’s coach” who calls the shots.
Or just “Coach,” as Joe Gibbs is most commonly known.
“Those guys are the ones driving the cars, so those guys will get together on their own and figure it out,” he said after New Hampshire.
If that sounded familiar, it might be because Gibbs said something similar a week earlier when Bell won at Bristol Motor Speedway after recently lambasting his team’s strategy.
“I let them handle it,” Gibbs said. “I really do.”
It’s his tried-and-true mantra — so much that he essentially said the same thing nearly 26 years ago during that Homestead broadcast.
Explaining how he navigated the leadership of diverse personnel through disagreements and tumult, Gibbs said any situation could be handled as long as team members ultimately bought into the concept of sacrifice and teamwork.
“It’s a corny thing that you hear all the time,” he said. “But that really truly is it. It’s the team that’s able to have that type of chemistry. People willing to sacrifice for each other. That’s always been the same in all of pro sports, whether the NFL or auto racing. That’s why I love it.”
That’s also why he’s a Hall of Famer in those two sports.
As a whisperer of pro athletes with a proclivity for causing trouble, “Coach Joe” has no peer.
JR Motorsports teammates Connor Zilisch and Justin Allgaier have clear paths to the Round of 8 in the NASCAR Xfinity Series Playoffs.
For the other 10 drivers in the postseason field, it’s a free-for-all entering Saturday’s Kansas Lottery 300 at Kansas Speedway (4 p.m. ET, The CW, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).
On the strength of his rookie-record nine victories this season, Zilisch can clinch a Round of 8 berth by scoring 27 points on Saturday, no matter who wins the race. Allgaier, the reigning series champion, needs 56 points under the same circumstances to clinch a spot in the next round.
At 35 points above the current elimination line entering the second race in the Round of 12, Haas Factory Team’s Sam Mayer has a workable cushion, but only 16 points separate the next eight drivers in the standings, starting with fourth-place Carson Kvapil.
“This No. 1 team has brought fast cars to the mile-and-a-half tracks this year,” said Kvapil, who is making his Xfinity Series debut at the 1.5-mile speedway. “We just don’t have the finishes to show for it. We took the ‘off’ weekend to recharge, prepare and plan to continue on with our momentum from Bristol to get one step closer to moving on into the Round of 8. We need to stay consistent and will keep chasing that win.”
The race is even tighter on either side of the bubble. Eighth-place Taylor Gray is three points above the current cut line, with Nick Sanchez and Jesse Love both three points below.
Love started seventh and finished ninth at Kansas last season. He also has an ARCA victory from the pole at the track.
“We’re looking forward to Kansas,” said the driver of the No.2 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet. “I feel like it’s a track I’ve had some good success at in the past. I’ve won a race or two there before. It wasn’t great for us last year, but I think we have made some good changes going into this year.
“So, I’m looking forward to it. Hopefully, the track is similar to last year, and we can get up and move up on the top side, we can run the fence. We’re on the outside looking in (for the Round of 8), and I’m not too worried about it, but we still need to have a good run.”
After Toyotas absolutely dominated the first three races of the 2025 Cup Series Playoffs, that narrative was reset somewhat at New Hampshire Motor Speedway last Sunday. Ford drivers Ryan Blaney and Josh Berry finished the race 1-2, and Chevy powered five of the top nine cars in the final running order — limiting Toyota to just one of those slots, with Christopher Bell in sixth place.
That’s why Joey Logano, Kyle Larson, Blaney, Chase Elliott and William Byron — not a Toyota in the bunch — saw the five biggest gains in playoff advancement odds according to our forecast model (which uses projected Driver Ratings to simulate the playoffs 10,000 times). Meanwhile, the list of drivers who lost probability was Toyota-heavy, with the most notable dips belonging to the 23XI rides of Tyler Reddick and Bubba Wallace:
For the non-Toyotas, and especially the Chevrolets, it was a much-needed show of force to restore their status as championship front-runners. And nobody in the Chevy camp may loom larger as a title threat if he gets rolling — especially with Kansas Speedway, a favorite hunting ground of his, coming up next — than Larson.
Larson’s 2025 season has been tough to gauge at times. It started as good or better than any other in recent memory, with the No. 5 car claiming victory in three of the season’s first 12 races — a 25% win rate — with an average finish of 9.8, an Adjusted Points+ index of 240 (i.e., 140% better than Cup average) and an average Driver Rating of 102.6. All four figures were tracking to be Larson’s most dominant showing since winning the sole Cup Series title of his career to date in 2021:
But that period — which officially ended with a 21st-place run in the All-Star Race — gave way to a series of diminished results for Larson, starting with his second straight Double attempt at the Indianapolis 500 and the Coca-Cola 600. After finishing 18th at Indy in 2024 but missing his window to hop in the car at Charlotte before rain shortened the race, this time around Larson crashed out of Indy early (finishing 24th) but started on time in Charlotte — and led 34 laps — before eventually crashing out of the Coke 600 as well, finishing 37th.
Afterward, Larson said he was finished pursuing the fabled Indy 500/Coke 600 Double. (“Logistically, it’s just really, really tough,” he said.) But his slump in Cup was just getting started.
Ever since his disappointing run at Charlotte, Larson has recorded an uncharacteristic zero wins and only three top fives in 18 starts, with an average finish of just 17.4 (14th among active drivers), an Adjusted Points+ index of 125 (12th) and a Driver Rating of 82.8 (10th). While he’s still flashed some vintage Larson dominance on the odd occasion — he has five races with a rating of 100 or higher over that span, which is more than fellow active playoff drivers Wallace, Logano, Reddick, Austin Cindric and Ross Chastain — he’s also finished 28th or worse six times, with five runs outside the top 31.
How unusual is all of this for him? To find another stretch of 18 consecutive races where Larson only posted three top fives, we’d need to return to July 2019, back when Larson was still driving the No. 42 car for Chip Ganassi Racing (which feels like an eternity ago). For a driver who’s usually easy to pencil in as the title favorite — even if he doesn’t always convert those chances to championships — it was startling to see Larson as merely OK, not elite, for any extended period of time.
That uncharacteristic ennui might be starting to recede, however, in recent weeks. Larson posted a 107.1 Driver Rating at Loudon, his second 100-plus rating in the span of three races. Granted, those were sandwiched around a bad 60.5 at Bristol, but that dud was Larson’s only outing that didn’t grade as a 90 or better in the past five races, the first time that was true since before his rough Double attempt. Along similar lines, his five-race rolling average Driver Rating of 92.7 — while still not as dominant as earlier in the season (when he was averaging marks as high as 115.5 over five races) — is the highest it’s been since early June, when his midseason slump was just a few weeks old.
The odds are good that Larson builds further on that momentum this week at Kansas, too. This is a track where Larson is the defending winner from the spring, and he’s also won two of the past three races held here. In the Next Gen era (since 2022), Larson easily leads all current Cup drivers at Kansas in winning percentage (28.5%), average finish (6.3), Adjusted Points+ index (271) and Driver Rating (111.4):
Unsurprisingly, that record — along with Larson’s historical success at similar tracks like Las Vegas — explains why he rates as a runaway favorite at this Sunday’s Hollywood Casino 400 Presented by ESPN Bet (3 p.m. ET, USA Network, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App) according to my track-similarity-based projection system. If Larson has the performance he’s capable of here, it could reset the playoff conversation in a hurry.
No, Larson likely wouldn’t quite be the title favorite even if he wins Sunday; his odds in the forecast model would rise to 16.0% in that eventuality, but current favorite Ryan Blaney would hold relatively steady at 21.0%. Still, a strong run at Kansas would put the rest of the playoff field on notice. If they’d gotten comfortable with Larson being just another good-not-great driver to tangle with while running in the high teens, those days could well be over soon — and they may have to start bracing for the usual championship-caliber version of Larson all over again.
All the success veteran Mike Looney has enjoyed in Late Model Stock Car competition over the past several years can be traced back to Oct. 16, 2016.
Looney on that day put together what to that point was his best performance in the ValleyStar Credit Union 300 at Martinsville Speedway. He earned the pole, dominated the main event and was tasked with fending off Lee Pulliam during the closing laps. He withstood the valiant charge to take home an illustrious grandfather clock.
Considered a major upset at the time, Looney’s Martinsville win helped bring in additional resources that transformed his program into a perennial contender across the southeast. That efficiency is why Looney believes he can earn a second ValleyStar Credit Union 300 win at the age of 47 this year if everything goes according to plan.
“You don’t win that race on talent and equipment alone; you got to have some help from above,” Looney said. “So many circumstances have to fall in place to put it all together. Looking back, that was one of the easiest races I’ve ever run. I ain’t saying I didn’t drive my butt off, but it all fell together like it was meant to be.
“Our team Billy Martin Racing wouldn’t have had as much success if we hadn’t pulled that off.”
Mike Looney’s victory in the 2016 ValleyStar Credit Union 300 at Martinsville Speedway was instrumental in transforming his team, Billy Martin Racing, into one of the best Late Model Stock programs in Virginia. (Photo: NASCAR)
In any normal year, Looney would be considered one of the favorites to win the ValleyStar Credit Union 300. But 2025 has been anything but routine for him.
Looney for myriad reason has only competed sporadically in a Late Model Stock this year. The time away from the track has given him an opportunity to step back and analyze an ever-changing industry that now has more committed, full-time operations compared to smaller programs like Martin’s.
Even with the rapid Late Model Stock evolution, Looney has never felt more confident about his ability to win the discipline’s most prestigious event. Keeping himself busy allowed Looney to divert his attention away from constantly being on racing, a much-needed mental reset that has him focused and determined going into Saturday.
“I guess work is trying to kill me now since they got me all the time,” Looney said. “I’ve been working on houses a little bit and working on myself a little bit. I got baptized back in the summertime and been working spiritually on my faith. It’s been a good break, and I feel kind of refreshed. I’m ready to get after it.”
Looney still has the same Late Model Stock from his runner-up finish at Martinsville last year, which has sat idly in the shop since that evening. The only significant change Looney and his team made to the car prior to loading it up for the 2025 ValleyStar Credit Union 300 was installing a new engine.
The reliability of his No. 87 Hopkins Lumber Chevrolet is something Looney will be counting on to maintain the consistent status quo that has followed him at Martinsville recently. Aside from a 36th place finish in 2023, Looney has not finished outside the top five in a ValleyStar Credit Union 300 this decade, with that stretch including two second-place showings.
Given how intense the ValleyStar Credit Union 300 can be from the heats up until the checkered flag, Looney finds himself surprised by how often he has finished inside the top five. So much can go wrong for any competitor at Martinsville without warning, but one quality has served Looney well during his trips there: staying patient throughout the entire weekend.
“I’ve heard them on TV use the word race craft; I don’t know what that means,” Looney said. “Everybody wants to take at Martinsville, and if you want to finish, you’re going to have to give. When that guy gets into you, you can’t get mad; you’ve just got to let it go. You’ve got to survive the first 150 laps. If that means being 20th, you can still win once they get crazy.
“That’s how I approach it. Some years it works, some years it don’t.”
In the past four years, Mike Looney has only finished outside the top five once in the ValleyStar Credit Union 300 at Martinsville Speedway. (Photo: Ted Malinowski/NASCAR)
Looney’s familiarity around Martinsville is another distinction he possesses for the ValleyStar Credit Union 300, as he has completed nearly 2,000 laps in the event. When Looney made his first Martinsville start in 2001, several competitors he will share the track with this weekend were not even born.
Experience is something Looney knows can cut both ways, especially since he has been out of the car for an extended period while the new generation of drivers absorbed copious resources. Despite this, Looney believes his knowledge about navigating Martinsville will materialize once he re-acclimates himself to the car.
“I feel like you could wake me up at daylight, and I could go out there and qualify,” Looney said. “I’ve generally been pretty good about not getting rusty pretty quick, but I am getting older, too. Between getting old and slow, along with getting a little rusty, I’m sure it will take me a lap or two to knock the rust off.”
Even though he is now one of the more senior competitors on the ValleyStar Credit Union 300 entry list, Looney remains at the top of the Martinsville pedestal, ever determined to join a small-but-prestigious list of names by claiming a second victory.
Throughout the 30-year history of the ValleyStar Credit Union 300, five Late Model Stock drivers have won the event more than once: Tony McGuire, Timothy Peters, Philip Morris, Lee Pulliam and Tommy Lemons Jr. Of that group, Morris is the only one to visit Martinsville’s Victory Lane three times.
Becoming a multi-time ValleyStar Credit Union 300 winner is something Looney believes can cement his legacy as one of the greatest Late Model Stock competitors of all time. If Looney accomplishes that goal this weekend, he will consider it an emotional-but-fitting conclusion to his storied career.
“Honestly, I’d probably retire right there on the stage,” Looney said. “One win [at Martinsville] is amazing, but if you look at the guys who were able to do it twice, they are all absolute legends in the sport. If you can do it twice, it rules out any doubt of it being a fluke or a freak deal. Finishing second twice is pretty darn good.
“We’re probably going to be retiring here pretty soon from full-time racing, so [a win] would be real special, for sure.”
The past decade has been rewarding for Looney in many regards. He won a ValleyStar Credit Union 300 and helped build Billy Martin Racing into a top-tier Late Model Stock program in the southeast.
Now refreshed and refocused, Looney is ready to showcase his veteran expertise once again and go into the Martinsville record books as a two-time ValleyStar Credit Union 300 winner.
The NASCAR Cup Series returns to Kansas Speedway, while the Xfinity Series joins for its one and only visit of the year at the 1.5-mile oval. It’s the middle race in the Round of 12 for both the Cup Series and Xfinity Series Playoffs in what will be a pivotal weekend. Bookmark this page and come back often for your race-week essentials — from links to qualifying order, average practice speeds, results and more.
Rodney Childers will join JR Motorsports as crew chief of its No. 1 car for the 2026 NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts Series, currently known as the Xfinity Series, the team announced Wednesday evening.
Driving the No. 1 Chevrolet will be a split of two teammates as current driver Carson Kvapil and Connor Zilisch will share racing responsibilities in what the team deemed a “dual role.” Both are competing in their rookie Xfinity seasons in 2025. Zilisch has earned a series-best nine wins driving the No. 88 Chevrolet and will move full-time to the NASCAR Cup Series in 2026 with Trackhouse Racing. Kvapil currently sits fourth in the Xfinity Playoffs Standings, 16 points above the cutline entering Saturday’s race at Kansas Speedway (4 p.m. ET, The CW, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).
Childers’ move returns him to NASCAR’s national level after parting ways as crew chief of the No. 7 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet in the NASCAR Cup Series in April. Childers won the 2014 Cup Series championship as crew chief for Kevin Harvick and the No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing team, kicking off an 11-season tenure at the now-defunct SHR and propelling Childers to 37 of his 40 career wins at the Cup level. In addition to his time at SHR, where he crew-chiefed for Harvick (2014-2023) and Josh Berry (2024), Childers previously spent time as crew chief at Evernham Motorsports and Michael Waltrip Racing before joining Spire for the 2025 season with Justin Haley.
“I’m so excited to be joining the JRM family,” Childers said in a team release. “To see what (team co-owners) Dale (Earnhardt Jr.), Kelley (Earnhardt Miller) and Mr. H (Rick Hendrick) have built here is quite amazing and their results show for themselves. Dale and Kelley have meant a lot to me for some 30 years and I can’t wait to be part of this group. Plus, I get to be the lucky guy to lead two amazing young men that have a huge amount of talent and a big future in our sport.”
Andrew Overstreet currently heads the No. 1 team with Kvapil, together producing six top fives and 13 top 10s in 27 races. This year marks Overstreet’s first serving as crew chief with one full-time driver after heading the part-time No. 88 Chevrolet in 2024 and has been with the company since 2020. JRM says Overstreet “will remain a key player” within the organization in 2026.
Here’s what’s happening in NASCAR with New Hampshire Motor Speedway in the rearview and Sunday’s Hollywood Casino 400 Presented by ESPN BET at Kansas Speedway up next (3 p.m. ET, USA Network, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App).
1. Toyota gives an inch at Loudon; is Hendrick going to take a mile?
Joe Gibbs Racing and 23XI Racing failed to capitalize on a maximal opportunity at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, allowing Team Penske to win and Hendrick Motorsports to get back in the fight. Will their edge be further whittled down this weekend at Kansas Speedway?
A decade-plus in, there’s enough evidence to say somewhat definitively: The NASCAR Playoffs are all about momentum. Gaining it, holding it or losing it can be the crux of the most dramatic of playoff letdowns, while also being the vehicle that drives some of the most historic title runs we’ve seen yet.
So it was puzzling to see the equity Joe Gibbs Racing and 23XI Racing built to open the playoffs through one of the most dominant postseason rounds we’ve ever seen all but evaporate into thin air Sunday at Loudon, an almost-impressive disappearing act fit for the “Magic Mile.”
Toyota entered New Hampshire with a remarkable edge, having swept the first three races of the playoffs convincingly, with arguably the manufacturer’s best track ahead in the Round of 12 opener at Loudon — a track that title heavyweight Christopher Bell tested at mere weeks earlier. The race told a different story, however, and even though Bell was Toyota’s top finisher in sixth … he was their top finisher. In sixth.
This came packaged with watching Team Penske eviscerate the field for its first win of the playoffs and Hendrick Motorsports’ trio excel at a track at which they’d been somewhat written off coming in, with no wins at New Hampshire since 2012. And on top of that, 23XI’s Tyler Reddick and Bubba Wallace entered looking like surefire Round of 8 contenders before each landed outside the top 20. They now jointly occupy the bottom of the standings.
The opportunity was there to mash the gas on the momentum they built up and suffocate the playoff field with it; Toyota instead left the door wide open for their fellow contenders to barrel through.
Still, Bell left New England plus-29 to the cut and should be a near-lock to advance, but can he be happy after the “Magic Mile” misfire?
“That’s a loaded question,” the No. 20 driver said on pit road after Sunday’s 301-lapper. “I think from a points standpoint, we did well. I know a lot of people are going to look at me and say how can I be frustrated at Gateway and not today. Well, this weekend really was a whole different story. We just didn’t have the pace. We didn’t have the pace to run with the top competitors. We walked out of here with a lot of points, so I think it was a successful day.”
Successful on paper, sure, but questions remain.
Reddick and Wallace, in particular, have found Kansas Speedway, site of this coming Sunday’s romp, a tougher venue lately than expected with recent finishes well off their earlier success at the track. Their falloff at Kansas, combined with New Hampshire’s snafu, has put them under pressure, especially with the Round of 12 rapidly approaching its critical tipping point.
“Yeah, there’s just a lot of question marks honestly. Places we have had speed at, we don’t bring speed. That’s been one of them for us,” said Reddick, 23 points below the bubble. “Yeah, we need something special to happen. I’m hoping we find the answer.”
Wallace, 27 points down and staring up at 11 drivers, did not walk out of Loudon any more upbeat.
“Just a miss all around really. We couldn’t really seem to get things going,” said the No. 23 driver. “Our best run lasted for five laps, the caution came out and then it was just right back to no good. I hate it. I felt really optimistic and marched forward at the start and it just never really went anywhere. We kind of plateaued Lap 5 and that was it. I hate that. It’s just a head scratcher. I told our team we’re way better than that. We know it. As much of a gut punch as this one is, we’ll move on. This is what we’ve got to do.”
Meanwhile, Hendrick Motorsports has made Kansas its home, home on the range, with Kyle Larson alone winning three times there since 2021 including a dominant 221-lap stomping in May’s race. The Chevy powerhouse’s ability to consistently place cars in the top two in six of the last eight Kansas races signals not just talent but deep organizational mastery over this intermediate 1.5-mile oval and its at-times chaotic style of racing in the Next Gen era.
Add to that the steady performances of William Byron and even ousted playoff driver Alex Bowman at the track, it points to this potentially being the team’s first place to strike in the playoffs. That’s perhaps especially notable considering the fall Kansas winner has gone on to win the championship four times.
This Round of 12 weekend has the feel of a defining moment ahead. Penske suddenly looks headed toward one of its drivers holding a giant trophy after Phoenix for the fourth straight season. Hendrick has forcefully seized the inch given to them at Loudon, and it now appears they could stretch that into a full mile (and a half?) at Kansas. JGR and 23XI just had a wicked bad time in New Hampsha.
That’s where things stand, with Sunday looking like it could be all Hendrick.
But that’s also what it looked like last week for JGR and Toyota on the stats sheet — and that’s why we race ‘em in real life.
Jamie Squire | Getty Images
2. Did Kansas Speedway just become a must-win race?
… for 11 drivers, at least. Loudon winner Ryan Blaney can sleep easily this week, but the rest of the 2025 Cup Series Playoffs field has no idea what to expect this weekend at Kansas — except that all will do anything possible to dodge Roval drama the week after.
Ryan Blaney collected the surf Sunday at New Hampshire Motor Speedway before the rest of the playoff contenders tussle for turf this weekend at Kansas Speedway. The Loudon win and the (freaking) lobster that went with it put him firmly and comfortably in the Round of 8, locking in his place and giving him a breather for now. But for everyone else in the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, Kansas represents less of a slow-burning, barbecue kind of weekend and something more along the lines of a pressure-cooker.
After the unexpected way Loudon played out — Blaney picked a great time for his first NHMS win, in the track’s first playoff race since 2017 — and with the unknowns ahead at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval, Kansas feels like a must-finish-near-the-front kind of race for the 11 drivers remaining, and certainly a must-win for some.
William Byron leads the un-locked-in contingent with a hefty, 47-point advantage above ninth place, followed closely by Hendrick counterpart Kyle Larson (plus-41) and Joe Gibbs Racing’s Christopher Bell (plus-29). JGR’s Denny Hamlin, Penske’s Joey Logano, Hendrick’s Chase Elliott and Chase Briscoe, in his first playoff run with JGR, all currently hold spots above the cutline, but the margin is anything but safe, ranging from 27 points to just 12. Then comes a cohort living dangerously below the cutoff line, and quite possibly looking at a Kansas win as their only realistic path to advance from here: Trackhouse Racing’s Ross Chastain (minus-12) and Austin Cindric in the No. 2 Penske Ford (minus-19).
23XI Racing’s Tyler Reddick (minus-23) and Bubba Wallace (minus-27) bring up the rear, and history isn’t on their side. Since the current elimination format’s inception, the largest comeback to advance from this round is 22 points.
With the chaotic Charlotte Roval around the corner, drivers and teams alike know at the very least there’s no room for error here this weekend. The Roval’s volatility is well documented: tight, technical and treacherous … and that was before SVG was a full-time Cup driver. Shane van Gisbergen, ousted from the Round of 16 but increasingly lethal on road courses, is widely expected to be in the mix for the win there, further reducing the odds for bubble drivers to secure their futures through luck or chaos alone. Kansas represents the last best chance to lock in a safer passage to the next round without leaving it to a dice roll at Charlotte.
Obviously, those under the heaviest microscope are the 23XI duo of Reddick and Wallace. After strong moments earlier in the season (and even in the playoffs), both have stumbled recently but also at Kansas lately, with puzzling finishes the past few times out compared to the past few (winning) trips before that.
With Ryan Blaney safe and sound at the top, the rest face a daunting weekend. The margins are razor-thin, the history demanding and the consequences nothing less than playoff-defining.
Steve Letarte, Adam Alexander and Alex Weaver dive into Chase Elliott’s qualifying woes and what could possibly help the No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet.
4. Will a non-playoff driver steal the show at Kansas?
Drivers out of contention for the Cup Series Championship (**) have won an astounding five of the last 13 Round of 12 races, with Kyle Larson the only repeat Round of 12 winner in the last four seasons. With some hungry non-playoff heavyweights looking to finish strong, will one snatch away a chance at a guaranteed Round of 8 bid? (Credit: Racing Insights)
Date
Track
Winner
9/26/2021
Las Vegas
Denny Hamlin
10/4/2021
Talladega
**Bubba Wallace
10/10/2021
Charlotte Roval
Kyle Larson
9/25/2022
Texas
**Tyler Reddick – eliminated in Round of 16
10/2/2022
Talladega
Chase Elliott
10/9/2022
Charlotte Roval
Christopher Bell
9/24/2023
Texas
William Byron
10/1/2023
Talladega
Ryan Blaney
10/8/2023
Charlotte Roval
**AJ Allmendinger
9/29/2024
Kansas
**Ross Chastain
10/6/2024
Talladega
**Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
10/13/2024
Charlotte Roval
Kyle Larson
9/21/2025
New Hampshire
Ryan Blaney
5. Catch the pack — news and notes from around the garage
Now that the NASCAR Cup Series Playoff Committee has met for the last time, the final decision on a new championship format will head to the executive level.
“The next step is NASCAR is going to get its leadership in position and really have a discussion and lock ourselves in a room and figure it out from there,” NASCAR managing director of communications Mike Forde said on the latest episode of the “Hauler Talk” podcast. “Take all the feedback from the committee and come up with the best decision for the entire sport and our fans moving forward.”
Forde said there will be no further news on the future of the playoffs until after the 2025 champion is crowned in the Nov. 2 season finale at Phoenix Raceway.
“We don’t want to announce a format prior to Phoenix and then have everyone either devalue this year’s championship or sort of make another set of points of who would be the champion if a new format was in place,” Forde said. “So I think that would be after this year.”
Forde said NASCAR’s board of directors, which consists of Jim France, Lesa France Kennedy, Gary Crotty, Steve Phelps and Mike Helton, likely would have the final approval of a change to the playoffs.
During the Sept. 17 meeting of the Playoff Committee, Forde said there was support from several members for reverting to a full-season champion (which was how NASCAR determined the title until 2004), but others lobbied for keeping some form of the playoffs. Forde noted a track president said fan interest spiked in playoff races, making it easier to sell tickets.
There also was debate about the clarity of playoff points and possibly replacing them with more points for a win.
Forde said a four-race championship round also was considered.
“I would be very surprised if the one-race championship is still around,” Forde said. “That was a big talking point of we need a bigger sample size if we’re going to keep the playoffs, and the championship needs to be more than one race.”
During the podcast, Forde and NASCAR senior director of racing communications Amanda Ellis also were joined by NASCAR managing director of aerodynamics Chris Popiela, who discussed the approval process for Ram’s entry into the Craftsman Truck Series for the 2026 season.
Other topics covered by Forde and Ellis during the 34th episode of “Hauler Talk,” which explores competition issues in NASCAR:
— The performance of a new tire at New Hampshire Motor Speedway that also will be used in the season’s final two races at Martinsville Speedway and Phoenix Raceway.
— A tire test being scheduled for Bristol Motor Speedway in mid-November.
— A new right-side tire that will be used at Kansas Speedway and Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
Click on the embed above to listen or search for “Hauler Talk” wherever you download podcasts to hear it on your phone, tablet or mobile device.
Nate Ryan has written about NASCAR since 1996 while working at the San Bernardino Sun, Richmond Times-Dispatch, USA TODAY and for the past 10 years at NBC Sports Digital. He is a contributor to the “Hauler Talk” show on the NASCAR Podcast Network. He also has covered various other motorsports, including the IndyCar and IMSA series.
