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Plenty can happen in five years. In 2011 at Homestead-Miami Speedway, Carl Edwards was involved in one of NASCAR’s most momentous championship races, but did not finish on the side of history he’d hoped for.
But even before his mano-a-mano face-off with Tony Stewart that damp November day, Edwards had made a vow, confiding to his wife, Katherine Downey, “If I can’t win this thing, I am going to be the best loser NASCAR has ever had.” He added, “I am going to try really hard to keep my head up and know we will be just as hard to beat next year and the year after that.”
Best loser. Edwards lived up to that promise and then some. After finishing second, in sight but out of range of Stewart taking the checkered flag, he was among the first to the three-time champ’s window net to offer his congratulations. And though the heartache was evident in his expressions, he managed to hide his grimacing with a brave face for the cameras, thanking his sponsors, team and crew for their efforts.
The man had given all he had that day and it still added up to one position he couldn’t gain on the race track. That spot made the difference; Stewart and Edwards each knotted at 2,403 points, but Stewart’s five victories in a superhuman Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup postseason performance broke that tie.
Edwards’ promise to be just as hard to beat “next year and the year after that” wound up being deferred. His performance dropped to a 15th-place ranking the next season, outside the Chase playoff picture. The years that followed brought him no closer to that breakthrough first championship than his 2011 brush with stock-car royalty.
Best average finish in Chase
| Rank |
Driver |
Year |
Average Finish |
Title? |
| 1. |
Carl Edwards |
2011 |
4.9 |
No |
| 2. |
Jimmie Johnson |
2007 |
5.0 |
Yes |
| t-3. |
Jeff Gordon |
2007 |
5.1 |
No |
| t-3. |
Jimmie Johnson |
2013 |
5.1 |
Yes |
| 5. |
Jimmie Johnson |
2008 |
5.7 |
Yes |
| 6. |
Kevin Harvick |
2010 |
5.8 |
No |
| 7. |
Jimmie Johnson |
2010 |
6.2 |
Yes |
| t-8. |
Tony Stewart |
2011 |
6.3 |
Yes |
| t-8. |
Brad Keselowski |
2012 |
6.3 |
Yes |
| 10. |
Joey Logano |
2014 |
6.4 |
No |
There were, however, the what-ifs. When Edwards reported for duty at preseason testing at Daytona in January 2012, his first time back in the car since his Homestead heartbreak, he didn’t dwell on the negatives or hypotheticals. Still, they were there.
“If we had another caution I feel we would have beaten everyone off pit road and they were dying for a caution,” Edwards said of his pit crew’s near-flawless day. “If the rain would have come. If we would have had four tires, anything. We put ourselves in position to win and Tony and those guys just did a better job, gambled more than we did and won. That is racing.”
It is racing, the fickle sport that one year nearly allowed Edwards beyond the velvet rope that separates champions from race winners, and then unceremoniously gave him the worst season of his career the next. Had things gone the other way, who knows the direction Edwards’ path might have taken.
A lot can happen in five years, a 400-mile winner-take-all race or a 10-race Chase.
The Chase and the race
Before the green flag had ever fallen on the 2011 season finale, Stewart already had won the battle of gamesmanship. He qualified just 15th after posting the 28th-best lap in final practice; by contrast, Edwards won the pole and was atop the leaderboard in the last tune-up before the season-ending race.
But words meant plenty, and Stewart’s confident, cocky manner in the days leading up to the event seemed to translate into on-track swagger as well.
Even then, there were plenty of places where missteps in an eventful day for Stewart & Co. could have altered the course of history:
— The loose part from Kurt Busch‘s broken transmission that lodged itself in the front grille screen of Stewart’s No. 14 Chevrolet, coming perilously close to piercing the radiator. The multiple pit-road visits for repairs cost Stewart plenty of early track position.
— The pit-stop issues and a faulty air wrench that caused Stewart to lose eight positions — twice — over the course of the race.
— The pit-strategy venture by Darian Grubb, Stewart’s crew chief, that was rewarded by a timely rain shower and lengthy caution that allowed his driver to save fuel and gain track position.
— The race’s agonizing third rain delay, which came ever-so-close to washing the remainder of the race away and flagging Edwards as the champion by a mere two points.
For all the misfortune that Stewart endured, he rallied. Remarkably, he made 12 pit stops in a 400-mile race and still won. His five victories in a 10-race Chase remains a series record.
Edwards and his team were unflappable, sticking to their strategy and executing it to near perfection. It still wound up just one position short.
Plenty has happened between that opportunity and this one.
What if …
Edwards’ what-ifs for the 2011 finale lingered longer as some of the sport’s difficult financial realities hit home. In the two days that followed Homestead, Roush Fenway shrank from a four-car operation to three, a move that involved layoffs of nearly 100 employees.
Edwards soldiered through a rare winless season in 2012. Osborne, whom Edwards said was so distraught at losing the previous year’s title that he skipped the Champion’s Week banquet in Las Vegas, was replaced atop his team’s pit box after 19 races. Edwards hasn’t had much continuity since: Dave Rogers, his current crew chief, is his fifth in the last five years.
After the 2014 season, a driver known for his backflip celebrations made one of the biggest leaps of his career, leaving the Roush Fenway and Ford camp and following the path that teammate Matt Kenseth took two years earlier to Joe Gibbs Racing and Toyota. The move has re-established Edwards among the sport’s championship contenders, but would the course of stock-car racing history be any different had Edwards converted on his last title shot?
• For one, Stewart would have been retiring from Sprint Cup competition this year as a two-time champ. As it stands, he’ll go down as the driver who bookended Johnson’s record run of five consecutive crowns with a pair of titles of his own, ending his Hall of Fame career as the only driver to win championships under the Winston Cup, Nextel Cup and Sprint Cup names.
• Edwards’ credentials for his own inclusion in the NASCAR Hall of Fame — regardless of this Sunday’s outcome — would have also received an undisputed boost. Only four drivers (former or current) without a championship are ahead of him on the series’ all-time win list. Three of them — Junior Johnson, Mark Martin and Fireball Roberts — have been chosen for enshrinement, with Denny Hamlin (29 career wins to Edwards’ 28) still competing and building his own Hall of Fame resume. Fred Lorenzen, behind Edwards with 26 career wins and no titles, was inducted in the NASCAR Hall’s Class of 2015. Championship or not, Edwards remains worthy of nomination and induction with room for his career accomplishments to grow — but the story would have been altered with a 2011 title.
• Had Roush Fenway added a championship banner to its race shop, would the team’s fortunes be different? UPS had already made the decision to withdraw its sponsorship at year’s end, so an Edwards title would not have saved its fourth team. Had Edwards stayed with the team after winning a theoretical 2011 title, his star power as an expert pitchman might have helped other sponsors stay in the fold as well, or served to recruit teammates. Edwards scored the organization’s most recent win in the summer of 2014. Nearly two and a half years later, the team is still rebuilding.
• And what of Joe Gibbs Racing, which grew from a three-team operation to the sport’s mandated four-team maximum with Edwards’ arrival? The Gibbs operation was already a NASCAR powerhouse before Edwards signed on, but the expansion added depth to match the performance. That aspect has paid off — Edwards and Busch are the only teammates to qualify for the Championship 4 in the same year since the current postseason format was introduced in 2014.
Regardless of the what-ifs or whether Edwards or Stewart had won back then, the 2011 finale almost certainly shaped the mold for how current-day championships are decided. The winner-take-all format for Homestead owes its roots to the compelling Edwards-Stewart battle, with the provisional title changing hands multiple times that day with each shift in track position.
Homestead reunion
Edwards returned to Homestead-Miami Speedway last month, participating for JGR in the last organizational test of the season. At that point, the driver was still alive in the Chase but hadn’t yet punched his ticket to NASCAR’s final four.
When he met with the media during a break in testing, he shared the table on stage with the Sprint Cup trophy, which was presumably making its own test run for this weekend.
“Yeah, I don’t know if this is nice of you to put this trophy up here,” said Edwards, clearly impressed. “I don’t know what you’re trying to do, but it’s working. I’ve got my emotions all wound up.”
He won’t lack for motivation in Sunday’s season-ender. After clinching his berth in the final with a victory two weeks ago at Texas Motor Speedway, Edwards is relishing his second chance at a spot on the championship stage.
But Edwards’ opportunity to rewrite history will coincide with a memorable farewell to Stewart, whose career will be forever linked with his through their 2011 title clash. Five years removed from the drama and distress, Edwards can look back on that day with a new, much fonder perspective.
“That was the most fun championship battle I’ve been in,” Edwards said last month at the South Florida track. “Those last few weeks, people around me said, ‘Man, that’s the happiest I’ve ever seen you.’ It was so neat to be racing that hard for a championship with a guy like Tony Stewart, a guy who’s one of the best drivers on earth. That race, that whole weekend was really fun — all that pressure, and it seemed like everything we did mattered. Everything was important, every lap.”
An early exit for Stewart in the Chase’s opening round will prevent the two from reprising their spirited campaign from five years ago. It didn’t stop Edwards from thinking, “What if?”
“I was really hoping Tony would be in the Chase and we’d get to battle it out again. That would be really cool,” Edwards said. “But looking back on it, that’s the kind of thing I’d like to be a part of again.
“I’d like to have a battle like that here in a few weeks. That’s as good as it gets.”