NASCAR.com’s Pat DeCola ranks the 16 Cup Series drivers in The Chase presented by Mobil 1 after Kyle Larson’s win at Talladega Superspeedway and before Sunday’s race at Martinsville Speedway (2 p.m. ET, NBC, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).
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Analysis: Well, that escalated quickly. One week after seeing his championship lead shrink to five points at Phoenix Raceway, Larson somehow turned Talladega — historically one of his least cooperative tracks — into the afternoon that might just deliver his third Cup title. He finished fourth and second in the stages, led 23 laps and was running first, then 11th, then first again on a final lap that hardly seemed possible even by Talladega standards. The result was his first drafting-track victory in 59 attempts, 71 points and a championship lead that ballooned to 73 with just two races remaining. Oh, and the rest of the contenders essentially had their Sundays ruined in various — and creative — ways. The No. 5 finished ninth at Martinsville this spring and fifth there last fall, and Larson now has a chance to settle the championship before Homestead even arrives. After the Phoenix meltdown, the title race looked wide open. Apparently that lasted about seven days, but will anybody stop him?
Analysis: Imagine climbing two spots in the championship standings and somehow leaving the weekend feeling considerably worse about your title hopes — that’s Hamlin’s Talladega experience in a nutshell. He escaped the Lap 132 wreck with damage, battled his way back into contention and was running second late before ultimately finishing eighth. On most Talladega Sundays, that’s the kind of survival story a championship contender gladly accepts. Unfortunately, Larson won, and Hamlin is now 73 points behind with two races remaining after entering just 31 back. Here’s the particularly interesting part, though: Martinsville is next. If he’s going to make it happen anywhere, it’s here — the Virginia native has six victories there and led a ridiculous 292 of 400 laps this spring before Chase Elliott beat him to the finish. The No. 11 also remains second in season-long speed according to NASCAR Insights, so if anybody is equipped to take a big chunk out of Larson’s lead, it’s Hamlin. He just needs Larson to cooperate for once.
Analysis: Bell could count the number of points he was behind Larson entering Talladega on just one hand. Now it’s 74, and unlike many of the other Chase contenders, Bell’s problems weren’t entirely somebody else’s doing. He was leading when he spun entering pit road under green on Lap 56, hitting the inside wall and damaging the No. 20 badly enough that a cut right-front tire forced another stop just five laps later. The afternoon never recovered, ending 35th, 12 laps down, and squandering a golden opportunity to tighten the championship race. That’s an especially bitter outcome after the speed Bell showed at Charlotte Motor Speedway and Phoenix, where he looked every bit capable of beating the drivers currently ahead of him. Martinsville produced a seventh-place finish in March, another perfectly useful result in a season full of them. Unfortunately, perfectly useful isn’t going to erase 74 points in two races without some considerable help, or even another runner-up, for that matter. The championship is still technically within reach. The margin for error, however, is effectively gone.
Analysis: For a while, it looked like Briscoe might be about to survive Talladega with another genuinely useful Chase afternoon. He started from the pole, scored points in both stages and was running eighth when the Lap 183 accident that sent Joey Logano upside down swallowed the No. 19 along with a sizable portion of the field. Thirty-third was the eventual result, and a championship deficit that had been shrinking rapidly is back up to 79 points. That’s a pretty rude interruption to the hottest stretch of Briscoe’s career, including consecutive victories at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and Charlotte, but the organization behind him remains exceptionally strong. His pit crew still ranks first in the series, and the No. 19 obviously hasn’t forgotten how to run up front. Martinsville wasn’t especially kind in March, when Briscoe finished 14th, but the team has proved it can win. Now it needs Larson to provide an opening.
Analysis: Four consecutive top-five finishes had Blaney looking more and more like the championship contender we kept insisting the No. 12 really was. Then Talladega happened because of course it did. Blaney was running second when contact from Bubba Wallace sent him spinning on Lap 132, triggering a massive multicar crash that ended his afternoon in 38th and effectively torpedoed what had been a remarkable Chase recovery. NASCAR Insights still rates Blaney first in both passing and speed for the season, and Martinsville should be right in his wheelhouse. He led 177 laps and finished second there last fall after winning the previous two fall races, then returned this spring and finished sixth. There’s still the small matter of being 107 points behind Larson with two races left, of course. Blaney’s speed is worthy of a much better championship position. The calendar just might be running out before he gets one.
Analysis: There aren’t many ways to make a championship afternoon go more dramatically sideways — literally — than Logano managed at Talladega. He won Stage 2, spent much of the closing stretch looking capable of stealing another victory and was running fourth when contact from Carson Hocevar triggered the massive Lap 183 wreck that sent the No. 22 upside down. Thirty-fourth was the eventual result, and Logano now sits 100 points behind Larson with just Martinsville and Homestead-Miami Speedway remaining. That’s a particularly brutal turn after his stage sweep at Phoenix suggested the three-time champion was finding his usual late-season form. The encouraging part? Logano finished third at Martinsville this spring and eighth there last fall, but if there’s another Logano postseason plot twist coming, it needs to be a big one.
Analysis: Well, the comeback was fun while it lasted. Reddick had finally begun looking like the five-time winner from the first half of 2026 again, finishing third at Vegas, eighth at Charlotte and then winning at Phoenix to rekindle a championship push that seemed all but finished. He even climbed from 33rd to 10th at Talladega before getting swept into the Lap 132 crash, eventually limping home 37th and surrendering most of the ground he had worked so hard to regain. That’s a pretty crushing way to follow your sixth victory of the season, especially with Larson simultaneously extending his championship lead to 73 points. Reddick remains eligible for the title at 126 back, but the hill is awfully steep and likely insurmountable now. The resurgence was real. Whether there’s enough time for it to mean anything more is a different conversation.
Analysis: There’s some particularly cruel timing here. He was running eighth when the Lap 132 Talladega crash ended his afternoon, dropping him to 36th and formally eliminating him from championship contention. Now the series heads to Martinsville, where Elliott delivered one of his two victories this season after outmaneuvering Hamlin’s dominant No. 11 with a crucial pit strategy call in March. He led 84 laps that afternoon and beat Hamlin, who led 292, to the checkered flag. Elliott also finished third at Martinsville last fall, so he’s hardly arriving without legitimate expectations of another strong run. He could sweep “The Paperclip” this weekend. Unfortunately, the championship conversation now belongs almost entirely to his teammate Larson, while Elliott finds himself 218 points back and watching the title fight from the outside, so Martinsville can’t be his signature, “Chase in The Chase” moment. It can at least give the No. 9 something considerably better to carry into the offseason, however. There’s plenty of value to that.
Analysis: The last few weeks have been a pretty strange way for Cindric’s Chase to unravel. Kansas Speedway and Las Vegas suggested Team Penske had finally found something on intermediate tracks, and even Talladega offered encouragement with a fourth-place finish in Stage 2 before the No. 2 got collected in the late multicar crash while running 11th. Twenty-seventh was the final result, and Cindric is now eliminated from the championship, 183 points behind Larson. That’s obviously not how this stretch was supposed to go after the career-best momentum he had built earlier in the postseason, but a strong indication he’ll be a player again in 2027. Martinsville was a P8 in March, another respectable showing, and the No. 2 has produced enough legitimate speed lately that the progress shouldn’t be dismissed entirely. The title opportunity is gone, but at least the broader gains Penske has made offer something useful to take forward.
Analysis: Even on an afternoon where NASCAR Insights rated him second in passing, Gibbs lost far more ground than he gained. He was running seventh when a stalled engine leaving pit road cost him his drafting partners and eventually a lap. Then came the Lap 132 wreck, followed by another penalty for too many crew members over the wall. Somehow, 17th almost qualifies as a decent recovery, but it officially ended his title hopes at 183 points behind Larson, continuing a Chase that has looked considerably less impressive lately than the two-win regular season that preceded it. Martinsville might offer something of a reset; Gibbs finished fourth there in March, his strongest result in a stretch where the No. 54 was running exceptionally well, and short tracks have been his strong suit. The clean afternoons have become a lot harder to find, but it feels like he could have one more in store on Sunday. 
Analysis: Four consecutive top-six finishes at Talladega, including a victory in April. That’s a pretty ridiculous stretch for Hocevar, and somehow Sunday’s sixth-place finish still managed to come with enough drama for several races. He served a pit-road speeding penalty early, fought his way back into contention and ran fifth when contact with Logano triggered the multicar crash that flipped the No. 22. Hocevar was involved in the wreck himself, yet survived to finish near the front, another reminder that there’s simply no such thing as a conventional Carson Hocevar afternoon. The No. 77 has demonstrated genuine winning ability this season, but Talladega also reinforced the other side of that equation: Mistakes and contact continue to complicate the results. He leaves ‘Dega eliminated from the championship, 198 points behind Larson, and all eyes will be on him in 2027.
Analysis: A Hendrick Motorsports 1-2 at Talladega certainly wasn’t the outcome most people expected, but Byron finally got one of the better results he’s been chasing for much of the season. He finished fifth in both stages, avoided the accidents that collected virtually every other Chase driver and was just 0.041 seconds behind Larson at the stripe for his best finish of 2026. That’s the good news. The bad news is that Byron’s championship hopes are officially over anyway, with the No. 24 now 214 points behind the very teammate he nearly beat. Here’s where things get interesting, though: Byron won at Martinsville last fall after leading 304 of 500 laps, then finished fifth there this spring. His title pursuit might be finished, but he’s returning to one of the few places where he could realistically steal some of the spotlight from Larson … and may still find a path to not finishing 2026 winless. There are worse ways to close an otherwise frustrating Chase.
Analysis: Much like his season at large, Wallace’s last three races have become a collection of increasingly frustrating what-ifs. He was running fifth at Charlotte when he got collected in another driver’s accident, led 52 laps at Phoenix before a pit-road speeding penalty ruined his opportunity, then was running sixth at Talladega when contact involving Blaney triggered the massive Lap 132 wreck. That one left the No. 23 damaged, eventually finishing 22nd, four laps down, and officially out of the championship picture. Not every bit of the misfortune has been beyond Wallace’s control, but the car has certainly looked capable of considerably better than the results suggest. Martinsville wasn’t exactly a friendly stop in March, either, when Wallace finished 36th. There have been enough encouraging runs lately to believe the No. 23 is improving. The payoff, though, may have to wait until next year.
Analysis: There’s more to Preece’s Talladega afternoon than 13th place, which is probably a good description of much of his 2026 at this point. He finished second in Stage 1 after helping RFK Racing execute an unusual early breakaway, then was running seventh when the Lap 132 wreck collected him. Preece still recovered to 13th, a respectable enough result considering the damage and an improvement on where things had been trending during The Chase. His championship hopes are officially finished, but Martinsville might offer another opportunity to produce something worthwhile: Preece finished sixth there last fall and 12th this spring. He’s already authored one major surprise this season with his Daytona victory, and the stakes are different now, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t something left to prove.
Analysis: For a while, Talladega looked like an RFK Racing private test session. Buescher, Preece and Brad Keselowski broke away from the pack in a three-car draft during Stage 1, eventually building an advantage of more than 40 seconds as the rest of the field conserved fuel. Buescher led a race-high 53 laps, won the opening stage and looked like he might finally have an afternoon worthy of the speed the No. 17 has shown at various points this season. Then came the Lap 183 wreck, collecting Buescher while running 22nd and leaving him 32nd at the finish. So much for that. It was one of the most interesting performances of his Chase, yet it ultimately left Buescher last in the championship standings, 255 points behind Larson, and eliminated with two races remaining. The talent and equipment have been capable of more than 15th in these rankings for much of the season. The results, unfortunately, keep declining to cooperate.
Analysis: Suárez somehow survived two major Talladega wrecks and still wound up with an afternoon that did almost nothing to change his Chase trajectory. An early pit-road speeding penalty knocked him backward, then he was involved in both the Lap 132 and Lap 183 multicar incidents before eventually finishing 18th. No stage points, no real momentum and another week in which the No. 7 spent most of the afternoon outside the part of the field that mattered. It’s a frustrating continuation of a postseason that’s offered only occasional flashes of the driver who won the Coca-Cola 600 in May; even the encouraging seventh-place result at Phoenix now feels somewhat isolated. With his championship hopes officially over and two races remaining, Suárez could certainly use one more significant afternoon before the year ends. The magic that produced one of the season’s strangest victories has spent most of The Chase in hiding. The clock’s about run out, and 2027 is calling.
