Analysis: Byron hasn’t dropped out of the top two in the Cup Series standings nor the top three in these rankings all season, despite not having won since February — but that’s the power of an average 2025 finish more than a full position better than anybody else in the series, which whittled to 9.2 after Nashville. Byron is on a yearlong heater, and with two runner-ups in the last four Michigan races (including last year), it might be ripe time for win No. 2 of the season.

Analysis: A sure sign of an A-plus driver is that he can drive a completely unspectacular race in which he’s a non-factor in the opening stages and still put himself in position to finish … eighth, which Larson did at Nashville. It’s only a matter of time before the three-time Michigan winner picks up a victory in the Irish Hills while driving for Hendrick; all three past wins came while with now-defunct Chip Ganassi Racing.

Analysis: Hamlin’s rough patch ended in a big way at Nashville, stopping a four-race skid outside the top 10 and looking quite strong while doing it. His five other finishes since Las Vegas Motor Speedway were all top fives (two of which were wins), and it’s clear he’ll be a winning threat most weeks this year, like most years. While his two wins at Michigan each came about a decade-and-a-half ago, he’s remained extremely competitive there. Eventually, one will break his way for a third victory.

Analysis: Couple of blips on the radar for Bell on the season, arguably none of which were his fault, and he’s otherwise been a top-10 driver in every race — often much better. It’s a little concerning he’s led double-digit laps in just two races this year, but Bell has obviously proven he knows how to win. And for his next point of emphasis: proving he knows how to land in the top 10 at Michigan, which he’s never done in six tries.

Analysis: Elliott continues to maintain his rock-solid consistency, delivering finishes that keep him afloat in the standings as he still seeks his first win in quite some time. Michigan has always been his white whale, and if he’s able to win there this weekend to snap the streak — at a track where his first three starts yielded three runner-ups — it would be huge.

Analysis: Well, the least surprising thing finally happened — Ryan Blaney, riding a rocket all year so far, was able to speed into Victory Lane. The only surprising thing was how long it took because this team has looked championship-capable all season. After finding the front of the field in eight of the last 10 Michigan races, you can count on No. 12 to give back-to-back wins a go, too.

Analysis: They don’t hand out trophies for this, but a 37-point P9 at Nashville was exactly what this team needed to stop the bleeding a bit. With a solid run in the books — and a new son at home — look for Reddick to stabilize from here, especially as the defending Michigan winner.

Analysis: It’s wild that Logano has just four top 10s this year in his title defense, is averaging his second-worst finish (16.3) since 2012 and it’s still a better average finish than last year’s championship run (17.1). He’s entered true wily-veteran status, and the three-time Michigan winner could certainly claim a fourth this weekend.

Analysis: Chastain wasn’t able to secure even a top 10 following his electric win at the Coca-Cola 600, but he just missed, landing in 11th. No. 1 has led in three straight Michigan races but overall has a hideous 25.9 average finish there, with just one result better than 24th.

Analysis: Much like his teammate, Nashville was a much-needed shot-in-the-arm for Wallace and the No. 23 group, who had an even worse month of May. Still, with a reasonable but not safe playoff margin, the 2022 Michigan runner-up should have a path to padding that a bit on Sunday.

Analysis: With back-to-back poles in his back pocket, Briscoe clearly has Saturday speed; it’s now just about translating that into results on Sunday. A mediocre 81 laps led on the year in what should be a championship-contending car leaves a lot to be desired, but don’t count on that total going up at Michigan, where the Indiana native has never led a lap or landed a top 10.

Analysis: Only two more were added at Nashville, but Cindric is closing in on his career-high laps led count of 256 set last year, and we’re not even halfway through the season. The upcoming weekend will be a big one for Team Penske, looking to assert its dominance after a statement win with an important track to the organization upcoming, so look for Cindric to bring his A-game despite some poor past Michigan showings.

Analysis: Bowman’s starting to slip here, having now scored 10 or fewer points in three of the past four races after starting off the season looking like a dark horse title contender. While Hendrick cars will likely always have a shot to win at Michigan, it’s probably not the track Bowman wants to see at the moment, having led in just one race there with three top 10s in 15 starts.

Analysis: Though Buescher finished a paltry 14th at Nashville, he had a pretty great week, moving from 23rd to 14th in points since the last edition of these rankings after a penalty amendment. He now gets to keep the good times rolling at a track he’s been one of the best at the past two seasons and once again looks like a strong playoff option.

Analysis: Busch still hasn’t seen a top 10 since Darlington Raceway, but Nashville did mark his best finish since then as he climbs four spots in the standings. As a consistent top-five presence at Michigan in his time at Joe Gibbs Racing and then with last year’s P4 in the No. 8 Richard Childress Racing Chevy, it’s possible this weekend could be the pivot this group needs to kick it into gear for the second half of the season.

Analysis: NASCAR’s newest lightning rod is here, and the fact he’s turning in runner-ups on top of being an aggravator shows he can back up his rabble-rousing, and people are going to have to beat him, straight up. (Though some may choose to just straight beat him up.) Either way, all eyes will be on Hocevar as he enters the playoff conversation and looks for his first Cup Series win this weekend at his home track.

Analysis: Nashville was not quite an exceptional night for Preece, running 299 of 300 laps and walking away with a measly nine points. He’s never led a lap at Michigan, and his only top 10 there was last decade and two teams ago. But it’s possible he breaks into the top 10 this weekend after narrowly missing it last year for a dwindling Stewart-Haas Racing operation.

Analysis: Oh, baby. Stenhouse (as we have learned) is not a driver that is easily trifled with, and Hocevar may have some unpaid debts come due before the season is out. More interesting to me, however: What does getting wrecked at Nashville for his worst finish of the season do to a team that was already scrapping and putting together a nice season? This kind of thing can make or break a team, and with just one top 10 in 20 Michigan starts, it could be a hill to climb this weekend.

Analysis: Allmendinger dipped a bit after an incredible run at Charlotte in the Coca-Cola 600, but he’ll be plenty on the attack in the months ahead as he looks to clinch his first playoff spot since 2014. Don’t expect him to be competitive this weekend, though — he’s been racing in the Cup Series at Michigan for almost two decades and has exactly one lap led and zero top 10s.

Analysis: Berry had what appeared to be a turnaround race at Kansas after six straight non-top-10s to follow up his Las Vegas win, but he’s started trending in the wrong direction again. The Tennessee native led four laps at Michigan last year but has yet to finish better than 22nd there in his three tries.