NASCAR heads to the 1.33-mile concrete track, Nashville Superspeedway, for tonight’s Cracker Barrel 400 (7 ET, Prime Video).
Nashville represents the fourth consecutive intermediate-track, points-paying race. Notably, practice times have been extremely useful over the first three races at Texas, Kansas, and Charlotte in predicting race speed.
In particular, my FLAGS metric identified Larson and Chastain as the clear best cars in each of the last two weeks. The week before, it pinned Austin Cindric as fastest in practice, and he won Stage 1 before ultimately running into issues with a poorly timed pit stop just before a caution, then getting caught up in a late wreck.
So it should be no surprise that I’ll be heavily relying on practice FLAGS to find some value for tonight’s NASCAR best bets for Nashville.
DraftKings is hanging a ton of head-to-head bets this week, and that’s the market I’m looking to attack.
I’m showing pretty clear value on four of these matchup bets, so without breaking down each individual matchup, I’ll simply list them with their FLAGS rating and their median finishing position as determined by my model.
1. Tyler Reddick -110 over Christopher Bell
FLAGS: Reddick 89.6% (1st), Bell 74.9% (8th)
Med. Finish: Reddick 6.5, Bell 7.5
2. Cody Ware -110 over J.J. Yeley
FLAGS: Ware 16.4% (36th), Yeley 4.6% (38th)
Med. Finish: Ware 30.5, Yeley 31.5
3. William Byron -115 over Kyle Larson
FLAGS: Byron 85.3% (4th), Larson 57.9% (16th)
Med. Finish: Byron 5.5, Larson 6.5
4. Chase Briscoe -120 over Joey Logano
FLAGS: Briscoe 78.7% (5th), Logano 49.8% (21st)
Med. Finish: Briscoe 11.5, Logano 13.5
Notably, in all four of these matchups, the driver I’m betting on is also starting ahead of their opponent, so we’re firing off with the early advantage on cars that also practiced faster.
I’m also going to have a little fun and parlay these four bets at DraftKings at +1149 odds. It’s quite unlikely to hit, but it’s a fun way to compound these edges.
LEBANON, Tenn. — Don’t ask Chris Buescher about points. The native Texan is solely focused on chasing checkered flags with RFK Racing.
“I adamantly hate points racing so much,” Buescher said on Saturday at Nashville Superspeedway. “If it didn’t happen to roll up on (X) feeds because I’m scrolling, I wouldn’t have a clue. I don’t like that it consumes so much of the conversation. I want to go to the track on a weekly basis and try to figure out how to win that, knowing that everything comes with winning races. It’s a pretty basic concept.”
However, Buescher was pleased to hear on Wednesday that the National Motorsports Appeals Panel amended the L1-level penalty issued to the No. 17 team after the Cup Series race last month at Kansas Speedway. He was in Nashville to promote the race weekend during the hearing.
Regaining 30 of the 60 points, Buescher jumped seven spots in the Regular Season Championship standings, slotting in 16th. Entering Sunday night’s Cracker Barrel 400 at Nashville Superspeedway (7 p.m. ET, Prime Video, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), he’s six points behind RFK teammate Ryan Preece for the provisional bubble spot with half the regular season remaining.
“It put us in a little better spot on that side of things, but ultimately, it doesn’t change our year,” Buescher said of the addition of 30 points. “We have the second half of the regular season to win some races. I believe that ultimately, it’s going to take wins to get you over the playoff bubble.”
Team co-owner Brad Keselowski was pleased with the ruling. But, like Buescher, he believes it’s going to take a checkered flag to punch a ticket to the postseason, thinking that drivers below the elimination line will win their way in.
“It’s a good thing to move [Buescher] up in points,” Keselowski said. “The reality of the series and the way it’s judged with the way the playoff format works, I think our mindset is that we need to win races to be relevant and to guarantee we’re going to the playoffs. It wasn’t a bad thing, but I don’t know that it really changes anything for us.”
What has changed for RFK is the allocation of a few roles and responsibilities within the organization to ensure there is no overlooking of the NASCAR rule book moving forward, Keselowski mentioned in his Saturday press conference. In addition to Buescher’s penalty, Ryan Preece was disqualified from a runner-up finish in April at Talladega Superspeedway for a spoiler modification, setting the No. 60 car back.
“The situations at hand were not what I would call pushing too much, as I would call not having any regard to understanding the rule book and all of its complexities,” Keselowski said. “Ultimately, that burden falls on us, so we’ve had those conversations internally. Everyone knows what is expected of them.”
Through the first half of the regular season, Buescher has six top-10 finishes, more than reigning Regular Season Champion Tyler Reddick (four) and defending Cup champion Joey Logano (three). It’s the same amount as two-time 2025 winner Denny Hamlin.
That said, Buescher has a single top-five finish (Phoenix in March) since last visiting Victory Lane in September at Watkins Glen International. The path forward is to perform better.
“What we wanted so badly this year was to improve our first 10 races,” Buescher said. “Proud of the fact that we have been better; there’s no doubt about that in my mind. We’ve been able to measure that in a lot of ways, and it may not show in all of the results, but we’ve been a lot better.
“We haven’t been able to get the win that we hoped for in the first handful like we hoped for. We’ve been in the hunt across all three of our teams. All things considered, it’s been a fairly successful beginning of the season, call it a B-plus, with a lot of room for improvement to get to the point to where we can win every week.”
After Nashville and on the radar are visits to Michigan International Speedway, where Buescher is a recent winner, and Mexico City, where the No. 17 car should be a strong contender.
Exactly halfway through the regular season, only eight drivers have provisionally locked their spot in the NASCAR Playoffs with a win. However, three of the last four drivers who stepped into Victory Lane did so for the first time this season, which signals there’s still runway for a driver’s season to launch.
Looking at Nashville, it will be just the fifth Cup Series race at the 1.33-mile concrete speedway, and a few candidates have a chance this Sunday to change their season’s tune in Music City (7 p.m. ET, Prime Video, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).
Ryan Blaney, pole winner Chase Briscoe and Chase Elliott are drivers from the powerhouse teams that currently remain winless. Yes, they would each be safe on points to make the playoff field if things stay the same by the end of August. But asking for the next 13 weeks to go smoothly is a lot, given that a turbulent shake-up could happen at any moment. It’s always better to be safe than sorry and win to ensure you’re in, rather than leaving it up to chance.
Starting with Elliott, he’s finished every race in the top 20, with seven of those being top 10s. The 2020 Cup Series champ also has two wins on concrete, with one of them at Nashville in 2022. The way Hendrick Motorsports has been humming this season — it currently leads all teams in poles (five), top fives (19), top 10s (31), laps led (1,706) and stage wins (14) — it only seems like a matter of time until Elliott places a winner sticker on the No. 9 Chevrolet.
On to Blaney, who hasn’t won yet, mainly because he has five DNFs, which are tied for the most this season. But he has the speed to win, given NASCAR Insights ranks Blaney first in both long-run speed and passing for the season. At Nashville, Blaney finished sixth there last year after a chaotic run of five overtimes and has a career-best finish of third at the facility in 2022. However, his other two results in Music City hit a different note, with crashes being scored 36th or worse.
Finally, there’s Briscoe, who said last week the No. 19 team is “still learning each other,” but then went out and earned his second pole of 2025 and finished third in one of the toughest races on the schedule. While his driver average of 29.3 at Nashville indicates it’s one of his worst tracks, all four of those starts were with Stewart-Haas Racing. He’s shown plenty of flashes in Joe Gibbs Racing’s equipment, adding a second straight pole on Saturday, with three of his last five finishes being fourth or better, and it could all come together this weekend.
BUBBA WALLACE: All four times Wallace has entered Nashville, he’s earned a top 20; his average finish of 13.5 at the speedway makes it one of his best tracks. Plus, he could use a rebound after three straight finishes of 33rd or worse.
RYAN PREECE: The No. 60 RFK Racing driver has been making 2025 a career year so far, as he currently holds the 16th playoff spot. Preece has two wins at Nashville in the Truck Series and his 17.3 average finish is his best for active non-short tracks.
AJ ALLMENDINGER: Coming off a fourth-place finish in the 600, Allmendinger now has four top 10s this season. He only has three starts at Nashville at the Cup level with a best finish of 10th, but did win an Xfinity race there two years ago. (UPDATE: Allmendinger will be starting from the rear.)
COREY HEIM: It’s a long shot for Heim to win in his second start of 2025, but that’s not why he’s here. At Kansas this year, Heim was the highest-finishing 23XI car in 13th. He recently became the youngest driver to reach 15 truck wins and his career numbers mirror Kyle Busch’s so far. Nashville will be the first oval he’s seeing twice at the Cup level, and a good indication of whether he’s ready to make the full-time jump soon.
RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE CRACKER BARREL 400
Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results. Updated on race day with practice and qualifying factored in.
LEBANON, Tenn. — Sheldon Creed desperately needed a good finish. He had free-fallen in the Xfinity Series regular–season championship battle.
Creed began his tenure with Haas Factory Team ranking third in the points standings through the opening three events. The No. 00 team had its first setback of 2025 at Phoenix Raceway, getting involved in a wreck triggered by Austin Hill. He followed that up with four straight top-10 finishes through Darlington Raceway.
Since then, though, it’s been an abysmal five-race stretch for Creed. The No. 00 Ford had consecutive DNFs due to wrecks at Bristol Motor Speedway and Rockingham Speedway. He managed a best finish during that span of ninth at Talladega Superspeedway before wrecking out just past the halfway point at Texas Motor Speedway the following week. He dropped to 12th on the playoff grid, only 11 markers above the elimination line. With a different strategy compared to most of the field, he rebounded to 10th at Charlotte Motor Speedway.
After posting the fifth-best time in qualifying on Saturday at Nashville Superspeedway, Creed had a good start for the Tennessee Lottery 250. He finished sixth in the opening stage and improved to second by the conclusion of Stage 2. The No. 00 pit crew thrived at the stage break, getting Creed the lead off pit road.
“They were on it tonight and got us the lead,” Creed said of his No. 00 bunch. “Just got us track position all night. Could have made a few different decisions on restarts to try to get the lead back like [Justin Allgaier] did. I don’t know if I was going to hold him off, I was getting too tight every run.”
Allgaier was in a class of his own on Saturday, leading a race-high 101 laps and having a maximum 61-point day. Creed dropped to fourth in the closing laps, with his Haas teammate Sam Mayer getting by to be the best finishing Ford driver. Rookie Connor Zilisch finished runner-up.
Still, a fourth-place finish is Creed’s first top five since the end of March at Martinsville Speedway, extending his record-breaking runner-up streak to 14 occasions before winning a race.
Creed stated: “We’ve been wrecked when we’ve struggled, and we’ve been wrecked running good. You try to keep doing your job, showing up and working hard. We knew we were capable of running like we did tonight.
“Still a little bit of work for us both to do to run mainly with the 7, he’s consistently fast every week. Need to keep working on it.”
Creed leaped four spots in the standings to sixth, now 38 points above the bubble with 12 races remaining in the regular season.
The 47 points earned at Nashville were the most Creed tallied in a race since the season opener at Daytona International Speedway (51). Of his ranking, he put it simply, “Love it. Need to keep trying to stack them and move up the ladder.”
The No. 16 Kaulig Racing Chevrolet team was penalized Saturday at Nashville Superspeedway after an unapproved adjustment was found on the splitter after the team had already passed pre-qualifying inspection.
Before driver AJ Allmendinger could participate in Cup Series practice at the 1.33-mile oval, competition officials directed the No. 16 to return to the Cup garage and re-run through the Underbody Scanning Station. The team made the necessary adjustments and Allmendinger’s car passed inspection again, but was held for 10 minutes during practice as a penalty.
After posting the 17th-fastest lap in qualifying, Allmendinger will now start at the rear of the field due to the unapproved adjustment and will serve a stop-and-go penalty on pit road after taking the green flag. The No. 16 team also lost pit-stall selection.
Additionally, car chief Jaron Antley has been ejected for the remainder of the weekend.
The only other issue in pre-race inspection was the No. 66 Ford of Chad Finchum failing inspection twice. Team engineer Austin Webb was ejected and the team lost its pit selection.
Justin Allgaier joked before the start of Saturday’s Tennessee Lottery 250 that he needed to win his second NASCAR Xfinity Series race at Nashville Superspeedway so he could earn another guitar trophy and have one for each of his two young daughters.
Hours later, his dominant work in the race was indeed sweet music for his title hopes. For the second time in his career, the veteran Allgaier swept both stages and went on to claim victory at the 1.33-mile concrete oval — his third win of the 2025 season.
The reigning series champion had to hold off 18-year-old rookie and JR Motorsports teammate, Connor Zilisch, in the closing laps, however, before ultimately driving his No. 7 Chevrolet to the win by a slight 1.289 seconds.
The two had been separated by less than half a second for much of the closing 20 laps before lapped traffic helped the Allgaier pull away in the longest green flag run — 48 laps. In all, he led a race-high 101 of the race’s 188 laps.
“These guys right here, they deserve this one more than anything,’’ Allgaier, who turns 39 next week, said, shaking hands with his JR Motorsports crew as members came up to congratulate him. “I screwed them over last week [at Charlotte] by making a [wrong] pit call with an equally as good car. But this time it was Chevrolet, which was absolutely unreal. [His wife] Ashley and the kids are here and it’s so cool to get a win here at Nashville. The fans here are incredible. This place is special to me.
“I said before the race, I really wanted to get a second guitar so both kids would have a guitar. So they can fight over them. I’m really proud of JR Motorsports.”
You’d be hard-pressed to tell it was Zilisch’s first-ever race at the concrete Nashville oval. He earned points in both stages, had good pit stops and moved up through the field and into the top five by Lap 70. He led 18 laps, but his run out front was interrupted by a caution with 53 laps remaining. Allgaier took the lead in a three-wide battle up front on the ensuing restart with 48 to go and never looked back.
“I thought I might be able to get back by him, but clean air is everything and the first 20 laps of a run if you had clean air you’d prevail on a long run, just keeping your stuff cooler and not having to run as hard,’’ Zilisch said. “Congrats to Justin. He did a really good job executing on that restart. It’s the second week in a row I’ve finished second because of a restart. It’s frustrating.
“I’m really happy with the progress we’re making and being frustrated with second [place] is a good thing,’’ he added with a smile.
Haas Factory Team’s Sam Mayer’s No. 41 Ford finished third, just in front of his teammate Sheldon Creed in the No. 00 Ford and a third JR Motorsports Chevy, driven by last week’s Cup Series race winner, Ross Chastain.
Aric Almirola, Austin Hill, Jesse Love, rookie Carson Kvapil and Sammy Smith rounded out the top 10.
It marks the first win for a full-time Xfinity Series driver in the last three races and extends Allgaier’s points lead over Richard Childress Racing’s Hill to 92 points.
The Xfinity Series has an off-week coming up before returning to competition Saturday, June 14 (4:30 p.m. ET, The CW, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) in The Chilango 150 at Mexico City’s famed Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez.
NOTE: Post-race inspection is complete in the Xfinity Series garage. Justin Allgaier’s win was confirmed. The No. 10 has been disqualified for failing rear heights. The No. 88 had two lug nuts not safe and secure.
Track: Nashville Superspeedway Location: Lebanon, Tennessee Track length: 1.33 miles When: Sunday, 7 p.m. ET Where to tune in: Prime Video, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio Race purse: $11,055,250 Race distance: 300 laps | 399 miles Stages: 90 | 185 | 300 Defending winner:Joey Logano, June 2024 Starting lineup:Chase Briscoe on pole
Nashville sets stage for regular-season run to postseason
Just like that, half of the regular season is over. It’s June, and Nashville Superspeedway is ready to propel the NASCAR Cup Series into the second half of the run to the playoffs.
Ross Chastain assured his spot in the 2025 postseason with a win at the Coca-Cola 600 one week ago, and there’s a strong chance he backs that up Sunday at Nashville, where he wheeled the No. 1 to Victory Lane in 2023 and was in contention late in 2024. But there are other big names with big teams and big dreams eager to win and secure that playoff position as Race No. 14 of 26 inches toward the green flag.
Team Penske’s Ryan Blaney ranks sixth in laps led (200), seventh in points (363) and eighth in average running position (14.43). Yet his 17.8 average finish is tied with two others for 14th-best, sunken by a series-high five DNFs through 13 races. Nashville has proven to be hit or miss for Blaney: In four starts, the No. 12 Ford has finished inside the top 10 twice (third, 2022; sixth, 2024) and crashed out twice (2021, 2023). And with 13 races separating us from the postseason, Blaney provisionally sits 11th in the projected 16-driver playoff field, 89 points above the elimination line — safe, but not secure.
Chase Briscoe, on the other hand, was all miss and no hits in his four trips with Stewart-Haas Racing. That can all be erased in his first trip to the concrete oval with Joe Gibbs Racing and its No. 19 team. Crew chief James Small and now-retired driver Martin Truex Jr. scored a runner-up finish at Nashville in 2023 behind Chastain, but the No. 19 Toyota has also finished outside the top 20 three times in for Nashville appearances. In fact, according to Racing Insights, JGR only has two top fives at Nashville in the four races and failed to have a car finish inside the top 10 in 2024 despite leading 203 of the 331 laps. Still, Briscoe stands 13th in the provisional postseason standings, 40 points to the good coming off a Charlotte top five.
Despite its spot smack-dab in the middle of the regular season, Nashville can play a pivotal role in the championship outcome. Last season, Joey Logano took advantage of incredible fuel saving to win after five periods of NASCAR Overtime, locking his spot in the playoffs and ultimately propelling the No. 22 Team Penske group toward its third championship season.
So who’s next? And who knows? Perhaps everything we thought we knew about this regular season could change Sunday night.
What do crew chiefs have in focus to win Sunday’s race?
Sure, Nashville’s party central — Broadway — is a half hour northwest of the facility, but two drinking phrases for Sunday evening will be track position and fuel mileage.
Should a caution fall on the brink of the fuel window – which varies by manufacturer, with some saying 76 laps and others saying closer to 80 – expect teams to pit, hoping to get a few caution laps to bank enough fuel and stretch their tanks. Stephen Doran, crew chief for Zane Smith in last year’s five-overtime extravaganza, called the No. 71 Chevrolet to pit road with roughly 75 laps remaining in regulation. The race went 31 laps past its scheduled distance and Smith leaped more than 20 positions in the running order.
“We had just had a caution with like 75 to go so everyone could make it, so we knew most would stay out and didn’t have much to lose,” Doran, now crew chief for Shane van Gisbergen, told NASCAR.com on Saturday at Nashville. “We weren’t really thinking of fuel at the time; we were thinking of a tire advantage. As it turned out, it was a huge advantage on fuel to be able to jump everyone else that was pitting in overtime because they were out of fuel.”
Three-time Cup champion Joey Logano ultimately stretched his tank the furthest last summer, earning his first of two fuel-mileage victories in 2024 (Las Vegas, October). The No. 22 Ford pushed the limit, going 110 laps on a tank of gas with the aid of six caution flags.
“With the way the tire holds on to speed, it opens up the opportunity,” Paul Wolfe, crew chief of the No. 22 car, said. “As we go into any weekend, it’s understanding the tire and the trends of falloff and those types of things. This weekend, a new left-side tire, a little softer, is what we’re being told. There are opportunities to stay out with a lot of laps, and there’s the chance for two tires, which we did as well during that race. It’s one of those races where if you don’t have track position, there’s definitely opportunities to try to make some.”
It might be an outcry for another Nashville race to go five overtimes. But teams know that the race can be won or lost on restarts.
“I’d say you’re not going to see that again, but it is a track where the restarts are wild,” Doran stated. “It’s hard to pass here, it’s hard to complete a pass, so people are super aggressive on restarts to try and get track position. I think that’s why you saw the craziness at the end of the race last year.”
Watch out for the current concrete kings. According to Racing Insights, three drivers have combined to win the last six races on concrete: Hamlin, Logano and Larson. Hamlin himself owns three of those wins, including two in 2024. Larson has won each of the last two, both of which came at Bristol Motor Speedway. But will the trend continue at a different Tennessee track?
He may not be the favorite to win, but watch out for …
AJ ALLMENDINGER. The No. 16 Kaulig Racing Chevrolet has impressed much of this season, even if last week’s top five at Charlotte broke a streak of two DNFs and three finishes outside the top 20. In three Nashville Cup starts, Allmendinger has never finished outside the top 20 — 19th, 10th and 11th. With Kaulig’s improved speed, perhaps Allmendinger will find himself in the mix once again.
Fantasy update
NASCAR Fantasy Live expert Dustin Albino provides insight for your Sunday lineup.
Toyota dominated Saturday at Nashville, with Tyler Reddick leading the way in most practice metrics and Chase Briscoe winning consecutive pole awards for the first time in his career. The biggest move this weekend is jumping Briscoe into my starting lineup after listing the No. 19 car as one to stay away from earlier this week. Briscoe had steady short- and long-run speed in practice. I also bumped Bubba Wallace as my garage pick, thinking it would be a smart idea to have Toyota as the focal point of your lineup on Sunday. The bonehead move of the year could be not having Kyle Larson available, but the No. 5 car looked average in practice and qualified a season-low 28th. I also flopped RFK drivers in 36 for 36, with Brad Keselowski being my new pick.
Our biggest pieces of the week — get covered for race day from all angles. • NASCAR at Nashville: Key information, links, results through the weekend | Read more
• In-Season Challenge: How it works after 32-driver field is set after Nashville | Read more • ‘Be a sponge’: How common thread, common goals propelled Trackhouse to Coca-Cola 600 win | Read more
• Racing Insights: Full finishing order projections for Sunday’s Cracker Barrel 400 | Read more
• Turning Point to Nashville: Larson’s ‘Double’ fallout, most successful drivers under the lights | Read more
• At-track photos: Best shots and scenes from Music City | View gallery
• NASCAR Classics: All the thrills and intense moments from Nashville | Watch races
• Paint Scheme Preview: Schemes set to shine under the Nashville lights | View gallery
