HOMESTEAD, Fla. — One is said to exude quiet confidence. The other’s a leader from the cockpit. Another’s laser-focused while the fourth is charging.
That’s how officials from their respective automakers described this year’s four championship contenders Saturday here at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
The four are all that remain of the original 16 in this year’s Chase for the Sprint Cup field, advancing through three rounds to reach one final stop.
The highest-finishing driver leaves with the title, meaning a win isn’t necessary. But none of the four wants to go out with anything less than a checkered flag. And the championship trophy.
Hamlin’s been here before, under somewhat different circumstances. In 2010, he led Jimmie Johnson by 15 points heading into Homestead but by most accounts let the pressure of the title get in his way. Johnson won handily, and Hamlin hasn’t forgotten.
Dave Wilson, president and GM for Toyota Racing Development USA, said that experience should prove valuable to the 34-year-old Hamlin, as well as other recent near misses for the Toyota camp.
"Denny thinks a lot, and he’s been here before, and I think that really helps him," Wilson said. "We’ve, as a manufacturer, been the bridesmaid three out of the past four years; Denny has had a second‑place finish, Clint Bowyer has had a second‑place finish, then of course last year Matt Kenseth. But Denny is comfortable. He’s confident, quietly confident I would say."
Wilson also noted that Hamlin has enjoyed success on the 1.5-mile track, winning twice in the past five years, including last season.
"I think it gives him just what he needs to do the job Sunday," he said.
Hamlin (Joe Gibbs Racing) won once this year, at Talladega Superspeedway in April. His best Chase finish came last week at Phoenix where he was fifth. He has led multiple laps in five of the nine Chase races.
Chevrolet, with Harvick and Newman, is the only manufacturer with multiple representatives going for the title. To some, they represent the most likely and the least likely to emerge with the championship.
Harvick (Stewart-Haas Racing) has four wins this season while Newman (Richard Childress Racing) is winless. Raw speed has been the calling card for Harvick’s No. 4 team while Newman has relied on consistency and an ability to avoid the disastrous finish.
"Ryan just keeps coming; he keeps getting stronger race after race, and that team has just gotten in a great rhythm … every single race," said Chevrolet’s Jim Campbell, U.S. vice president, performance vehicles and motorsports.
"Now, they haven’t won a race yet, but they are charging."
Harvick, he said, is more representative of his boss, fellow driver and three-time Sprint Cup champion, Tony Stewart.
"He’s focused, he’s mentally tough and he’s a leader from the cockpit of the car," Campbell said. "When I think about the last time Stewart-Haas won the championship … in ’11, Tony had a lot of those same attributes.
"And so we’ll see where these two guys net out. The competition is tough. Anything can happen, and we expect there’s going to be some curveballs and surprises in how the teams react. Same focus, calm, and the guys leading from the cockpit with the team is going to have the best chance to win."
Logano is in his second season with Team Penske after a four full seasons at Joe Gibbs Racing that produced just two wins and no Chase appearances. He’s yet to not make the Chase since joining the Penske organization.
Two of his five wins this year have come in Chase races.
"Joey Logano, when he came into the sport was billed as a phenom, and indeed he is a phenom," Jamie Allison, director of Ford Racing, said. "He’s got the talent, and with the team around him, I think he’s very poised to succeed. He is driven and the goal is in sight, and we expect him to succeed.
"This is a sport of teams. You’ve got to put that in context. It’s Joey, it’s Todd (Gordon, crew chief), it’s Penske, it’s Ford. When you put that ensemble together, this season has been an absolute standout season."
While there is much on the line, none of the three automakers has ramped up its assistance to the individual teams. Instead, most have continued to provide the technical and engineering support that’s been the framework of the relationship from the beginning.
"There are tendencies in the sport during the race that can be gleaned from mining data that could give a crew chief an opportunity to make a decision based on data rather than just simply on gut feel," said Allison. "The field of analytics is wide open. So really when you’re coming down to the final race from a hardware (standpoint), it’s largely in the hands of the teams. But in terms of enabling decision making on in‑race situation, that’s one scenario."
With 19 wins among all Chevrolet teams, and a 38th manufacturer’s title in the wings, Campbell said he saw no reason to increase input.
"Stick to the fundamentals in terms of providing the right parts, the right engineering people and the right engineering tools and then follow through," he said.
Wilson agreed. And while Hamlin likely learned a lesson from his 2010 shortcoming, so too did the manufacturer.
"I think we collectively overthought the gravity of it and played from a defensive position," Wilson said.
"I think what everyone has seen this year is a different feel. Denny is loose. It’s business as usual. The performance that we’ve collectively brought to the table is what has gotten Denny to this position, and we’re just going to execute as a team and see what that brings tomorrow afternoon."
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