Based on average-finish stats, here’s who’ll take home the title

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If NASCAR wanted an unpredictable Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup when it created the new playoff system, then mission accomplished. In all likelihood there weren’t too many Chase Grids filled out before the opener at Chicagoland Speedway that had the final four of Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, Ryan Newman and Kevin Harvick.

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But now that they’ve made it this far and the excitement is building toward a leader-take-all finale to the 2014 season, it’s time to trot out the numbers and have some fun trying to make sense of all the madness. So using average-finish stats — at Homestead-Miami Speedway, for this season and for the past five races — we’ll arrive at the winner toward the bottom of this story.

The reason we’ve chosen these three stat categories is to get a sampling of what each driver has done in the past and during the present in order to try to accurately predict the future. The thought is you can’t take a step forward without learning from the past.

But like we said, the Chase has been tough to call, and sometimes the numbers don’t account for a driver’s moxie, a crew chief’s key call or mechanical issues that can crop up from time to time. However, we remain fearless with our prediction, so without further ado let the games begin as we wait for the Ford EcoBoost 400 to get underway on Sunday (3 p.m. ET, ESPN).

Average finish for the 2014 season

Rank Driver Avg. Finish Points
1 Joey Logano 11.2 4
2 Ryan Newman 13.0 3
3 Kevin Harvick 13.3 2
4 Denny Hamlin 14.5 1

Inside the Numbers: Logano had an average finish of 11.5 entering the Eliminator Round, but finishes of fifth, 12th and sixth at Martinsville, Texas and Phoenix, respectively, allowed him to improve on what was already a stellar stat. So if you like consistency, then you should be out doing donuts if Joey is on your fantasy team or in your Chase Grid this week. …

Newman has yet to notch a win this season, but he has gotten this far thanks to his impressive average finish. And like Logano he is trending in the right direction and could become the first winless Chase driver to take home a title. Plus, he’s obviously willing to push folks out of the way if needed in order to get that elusive title. …

Harvick has had one of the fastest cars all season and has put to rest any issues with the pit crew. He also is trending in the right direction, which makes sense given you can’t get this far without being hot at the right time. He’s certainly hot coming off that dominating effort in the desert. …

Hamlin has improved in this area, too, from 15.1 before the Eliminator Round to 14.5. He’s had some in-race issues, but has managed to overcome them in time to keep posting solid finishes. Plus, his fifth-place finish at Phoenix was his best one yet in this Chase, so he’s coming in hot as well.

Average finish for the past five races

Rank Driver Avg. Finish Points
1 Joey Logano 7.6 4
2 Ryan Newman 8.2 3
3 Kevin Harvick 9.2 2
4 Denny Hamlin 10.0 1

Inside the Numbers: There was a moment in Sunday’s race at Phoenix where Logano started to lose his patience as he pounded his fist into his steering wheel. But he bounced back for a sixth-place finish and has endured two straight races where his patience has been tested. To go through that and emerge unscathed is a good sign for his championship chances. …

Whether you agree with it or not, Newman’s move on Kyle Larson to push him up and out of the way on the final lap showed grit and determination. That’s the kind of controlled aggression (if there is such a thing) you’d want to see at this point in the Chase. Newman has five top-10 finishes in the Chase, but perhaps more importantly hasn’t finished lower than 18th since Chicagoland. …

Harvick has six top-10s and two wins in the Chase, and if you erase his 33rd-place finish at Martinsville from the equation, his average finish during the Chase is an outstanding 5.8. …

Hamlin also has six top-10s during the Chase with a best finish of fifth last week at Phoenix. He managed to work around a 37th-place finish at Loudon, but other than that his lowest finish during the Chase was 18th at Talladega.

Average finish for Homestead-Miami Speedway

Rank Driver Avg. Finish Points
1 Kevin Harvick 8.1 4
2 Denny Hamlin 11.2 3
3 Ryan Newman 17.0 2
4 Joey Logano 20.8 1

Inside the Numbers: Harvick has 11 top-10s in his 13 career Cup races at Homestead-Miami, but he has never won a race there. He finished second in 2003 and 2008. …

Hamlin has two wins at Homestead-Miami (2009, 2013), the most among the remaining four contenders. He’s tied with Carl Edwards for second among active drivers; only Tony Stewart and Greg Biffle (with three apiece) have more wins at Homestead. …

Newman has just four top-10s in 12 career races at Homestead. His best finish was third place in 2012. …

As the youngest driver in this group, Logano has the smallest sample size of five races in which he has posted just one top-10. But he won the pole at Homestead in 2012 and is coming off his best finish there, an eighth place in last year’s race.

The final outcome

Rank Driver Points
1 Joey Logano 9
t-2 Ryan Newman 8
t-2 Kevin Harvick 8
4 Denny Hamlin 5

It’s close, but it’s Joey Logano who will come away with his first championship on Sunday, and will do so at just 24 years old. Call it a slice of heaven for the guy they call "Sliced Bread." We can’t wait to find out if the five-time winner in 2014 will be able to come out on top in this unexpected, yet strong championship field.

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Sunoco Rookie of the Year contender: ‘Dirty is a strong word’

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MORE: Larson: I understand Newman’s situation

Kyle Larson said Ryan Newman‘s shove of him in the last turn at Phoenix International Raceway to make the NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship would be "the move of his career" if he wins the title at Homestead-Miami Speedway (Sunday, 3 p.m. ET, ESPN).

A guest on SiriusXM NASCAR Radio Tuesday, Larson was asked whether he considered Newman’s move to be dirty.

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‘"Dirty’ is a strong word," Larson said. "I wouldn’t say it was necessarily clean. It definitely was aggressive. Even Newman said he wasn’t proud of it. …

"Look at the check they raise or the drivers hold up at the end of Homestead and see how much money a championship is worth, and not ever having a championship under his belt, you’re going to be aggressive. Like I said, I wouldn’t say it was 100 percent clean, but I wouldn’t say it was 100 percent dirty."

Larson and Chip Ganassi Racing teammate Jamie McMurray are in the top two positions in the points standings outside the 16 Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup contenders, and they’ve raised their game in the final 10 races of the season for a combined 10 top-10 finishes.

"The racing’s been extremely good all season long," Larson said. "It was great during the regular season and then it seems that as the Chase started, the racing just amped up that little bit."

In his first full season in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series, Larson acknowledged that he didn’t run the full Chase last year, starting four races at the end of last season to prepare for his rookie campaign. But he believes the new format has led to more drama.

"It seems like the intensity level has been raised, and I think the format has a lot to do with that," Larson said. "Usually you just have one cut-off race, and that’s Richmond. And now, you have three or four cut-off races that have a ton of intensity.

"You get those late-race restarts where people can gain a lot of positions and they go for it so I think it’s made the racing really good and it definitely made tempers flare and things like that as we’ve seen throughout the Chase so I think NASCAR’s done a great job with it."

After being run into the wall last week by Newman, Larson says the fast way around at Homestead is the high line, but it’s also very easy to put your car into the fence on your own.

"Homestead’s definitely my favorite track," Larson said. "You run right up by the wall. Inches off the wall is the fastest way around there.

"But it’s also really easy to get into the wall, and it’s a long race. You’ve got to take care of your equipment, try not to make any mistakes."

In the 2013 season finale, Larson led a lap and finished 15th. He’ll go for his first career win and the first Sprint Cup victory by a Drive for Diversity driver. He’ll also attempt to lock down Sunoco Rookie of the Year honors, leading Austin Dillon by 87 points.

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No NASCAR.com expert correctly picked more than one driver in the Championship Round

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Way back in April during the NCAA Men’s Basketball Final Four — which was in Dallas the same weekend NASCAR visited Texas Motor Speedway — our NASCAR.com panel of experts gave their own version of which drivers they envisioned being the last ones standing in the Chase for the Sprint Cup Championship Round finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

With Sunday’s Ford EcoBoost 400 (3 p.m. ET, ESPN) upon us, we decided it was the perfect time to look back at which drivers they picked and why.

As you’ll quickly learn upon reading those entries, the new Chase format, which debuted this year, lent itself to even more unpredictability than first imagined.

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The four drivers remaining — Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin and Ryan Newman — each have a shot to pick up their first title, but every single one of our experts had exactly two former champions on their ballot in a mixture of Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth and Brad Keselowski. Johnson was eliminated after the Contender Round finale at Talladega, while Keselowski and Kenseth were both eliminated this past Sunday at Phoenix. Johnson, the defending champion in search of a record-tying seventh title, was the only driver to appear on every expert’s ballot.

Johnson’s teammate Dale Earnhardt Jr. was also eliminated at Talladega, while Jeff Gordon — considered by many to be the favorite entering the Chase following the regular-season finale at Richmond on Sept. 6 — did not make a single ballot. The four-time champion nearly made it to the Championship Round, finishing second to Harvick at Phoenix on Sunday and one point behind Newman, the last driver in.

Take a look at how our experts picked back in April, with their reasoning at the time, and be sure to see who they view as the favorite heading into Sunday in this week’s NASCAR.com Power Rankings.

Zack Albert

Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Jimmie Johnson
Matt Kenseth
Brad Keselowski

"Jimmie Johnson‘s history of turning up the wick once the Chase begins certainly guarantees him a spot among the title contenders, and the momentum that Hendrick Motorsports teammate Dale Earnhardt Jr. has shown dating back to the end of 2013 will likely push him into the title mix at Homestead. Add in Kenseth’s recent excellence on 1.5-mile tracks and the sheer speed shown by Keselowski and the Team Penske camp at nearly every venue so far, and these four are the likeliest to not only survive, but thrive and advance in the new format on the road to Homestead."

Kenny Bruce

Kyle Busch
Kevin Harvick
Jimmie Johnson
Matt Kenseth

"The majority of the nine tracks leading up to the season-ending championship at Homestead have been kind to these four drivers. Johnson and Kenseth have won on eight of the nine, while Harvick and Busch have earned wins on seven. With winning races guaranteeing advancement into the next round, it’s hard to discount what these drivers and their respective teams have accomplished at these particular facilities in the past."

Holly Cain

Jimmie Johnson
Kyle Busch
Brad Keselowski
Kevin Harvick

"Johnson, Busch and Keselowski seem like gimme picks based on their history, their current performance and their potential down the stretch. The fourth choice was between Jeff Gordon — who is having a better than average year, can never be counted out and I think is racing with a sense of career urgency — and Kenseth, who is fresh off a career year in wins during a new era that rewards that. But in considering the new Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup format, Harvick looks like the best choice, having proven himself in the clutch and boasting an enviable track record at most of the 10 tracks that comprise the Chase."

Alan Cavanna

Jimmie Johnson
Brad Keselowski
Kevin Harvick
Dale Earnhardt Jr.

"A final four without a Joe Gibbs Racing car? I can’t believe it either. But it comes down to scheduling and the three races before Homestead. Jimmie Johnson will win Martinsville, Brad Keselowski will win Texas, and Kevin Harvick will continue his streak at Phoenix. The final spot in the championship race goes to the most consistent driver of the year: Dale Earnhardt Jr."

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Joey Logano evolves into full-package driver on verge of first title; Agree? Disagree? Cast your vote

MORE: Chase hub page | #MyChaseNation

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From his first national series start to becoming the youngest national series champion

Nov. 8: Elliott youngest to win national series title

After three wins and numerous top-five and top-10 finishes in his rookie season, Chase Elliott earned the distinction of being the 2014 NASCAR Nationwide Series champion by clinching the title at Phoenix International Raceway. | Read more

Nov. 1: Championship gets closer to Elliott’s grasp

Just one race before clinching the NASCAR Nationwide Series title at Phoenix, Elliott increased his points lead over Regan Smith to 48. Although it wasn’t a win, it put the opportunity of earning a championship within reach. | Read more

Sept. 27: Elliott keeps cool, overcomes Dover adversity

Despite struggling at Dover after making contact with the wall and running into the back of another driver, Elliott rallied and emerged from the race with an expanded lead in the standings. | Read more

Sept. 4: Breakout was rooted in Richmond

Without NAPA pulling sponsorship from Michael Waltrip Racing in 2013, Elliott might not have raced in 2014. NASCAR.com’s Brad Norman tells the story of how Elliott landed a spot in the No. 9. | Read more

Aug. 18: Ernie Cope to be Elliott’s crew chief in 2015

With Elliott’s current crew chief Greg Ives moving to Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s pit box in 2015, JR Motorsports announced who will take over the championship team. | Read more

July 31: Earnhardt: Hendrick has ‘great plan’ for Elliott

JR Motorsports owner Dale Earnhardt Jr. discussed long-term goals for Chase Elliott and his NASCAR career. | Read more

July 30: Greg Ives named Junior’s 2015 crew chief

Hendrick Motorsports announced that Elliott’s crew chief will take over Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s pit box in 2015 — leaving many to wonder who would fill the shoes of the No. 9 team’s pit boss. | Read more

July 19: Elliott wins at Chicagoland, moves in points lead

Elliott’s third win of 2014 vaulted him from third to the top of the Nationwide Series points standings, holding just a seven-point lead over teammate Regan Smith. | Read more

May 17: Elliott: From graduation to his full-time job

Graduation cap and gown by day, NAPA fire suit by night. Elliott graduated high school and made it to the track just in time for qualifying at Iowa Speedway. | Read more

April 11: Elliott wins Nationwide Series race at Darlington

Elliott spent his prom night just like he always imagined — in Victory Lane at Darlington. Recap the rookie’s memorable second win of 2014. | Read more

April 4: First Nationwide win a coming-of-age moment

With Elliott’s first win of his Nationwide Series career, he claimed the points lead. Read what JR Motorsports owner Dale Earnhardt Jr. said about his rookie’s first victory. | Read more

Jan. 6: Dale Jr. tabs Elliott for No. 9 JRM ride

With just one victory in the Truck Series, Elliott caught the eye of Dale Earnhardt Jr. like he had with Rick Hendrick, and his full-time deal with JR Motorsports and NAPA was announced. | Read more

Sept. 1, 2013: Elliott spins Ty Dillon, gets first Truck win

It wasn’t pretty, but it got the job done. Elliott’s first and only Truck Series victory came at the cost of Ty Dillon‘s run. Recap how the now Nationwide Series champ dared to get to Victory Lane. | Read more

March 11, 2013: Sun rising over bright future

The son of Hall of Famer Bill Elliott was determined to make a name for himself in NASCAR — and he started that journey when he made his first NASCAR Camping World Truck Series start at Martinsville in 2013 | Read more

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Joey Logano, in particular, has feuded with fellow finalists

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With Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano and Ryan Newman all occupying the same small space in the Phoenix International Raceway media center last weekend, the vibe was largely upbeat, and with good reason. All three had joined race winner Kevin Harvick among the final four drivers eligible for their first NASCAR Sprint Cup Series championship.

But as the details came to light about Newman’s forced fender on Kyle Larson to keep his postseason hopes alive in the final lap, it broached the delicate topic of retaliation ahead of the most important race in the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup playoffs.

Newman claimed his memory of Larson’s over-aggressive moves while racing him in the inaugural NASCAR Camping World Truck Series event at Eldora Speedway in 2013 might not have equaled an outright payback, but that it certainly factored into his last-ditch decision to make their battle for position a full-contact contest.

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That’s when the trio broke into an impromptu, cheery rendition of "Who wronged who?" and whether the list of past transgressions would carry over to Sunday’s season-ending Ford EcoBoost 400 (3 p.m. ET, ESPN). That’s when Logano learned that Hamlin thought he still owed him one, and that Newman hadn’t let a run-in with the youngest title contender slip his mind.

Logano quizzically asked Hamlin, "I thought we were even after that?" before smiling and putting his arms on the backs of both would-be rivals flanking him, saying, "my friends," in hopes that the hard feelings from those previous dust-ups had passed. Hamlin, for one, didn’t think the list of demerits would carry over, especially under the spotlight of the championship race.

"Yeah, I think you know who shows you respect through many races," Hamlin said. "A guy cuts you a break here and there, you keep that in your mind, and when he’s behind you knocking on your back bumper, then you can let the person go. It changes. When you have conversations, though, when you have bad blood between people, when you have conversations, you hash it out, things don’t linger on as much.

"Next week, we’re not going to be out there trying to settle scores between the four of us. It’s going to be what can we do to make our car faster than the rest of these three guys, and let’s do it the right way."

In past seasons, Logano has run afoul of each of the three other drivers he’ll be vying against for the title. In June 2010, he made an on-track incident and pit-road confrontation at Pocono with Harvick personal when he said that his wife, DeLana, "wears the fire suit in the family." Two months later, Logano and Newman had a brief war of words and needed to be separated by NASCAR officials after a crash at Michigan. Logano and Hamlin also had issues in spring 2013, colliding in consecutive weeks at Bristol and Fontana, sparking nasty Twitter exchanges and an eventual back injury for Hamlin that forced him to the sidelines for the better part of five races.

With the bygones behind them last weekend, the three remained in good spirits — even as they discussed the unwritten ledger in each driver’s memory bank about how one driver races another.

"There is no statute of limitations on anything. A driver never forgets," Newman said, adding that past offenses can become magnified as the intensity rises in a given race. "Jimmy Spencer coined the phrase, but really, a driver never does forget. I don’t think me doing what I did, whether it was Kyle Larson or (Marcos) Ambrose or (Greg) Biffle or whoever was right there around me, I would have been the same thing. That’s just my rationale to justify it in my head."

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Pit bosses aim to treat Homestead title shot same as any other race

MORE: Breaking down the championship crew chiefs | Learn more about the No. 31 pit crew
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Treat it the same. That was the underlying theme Tuesday from the four crew chiefs whose teams will be competing for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series championship this weekend at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

Each team has specific strengths and weaknesses, everything from been-there-before experience to pure talent, work ethic and raw speed.

To deviate from what has carried drivers Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano and Ryan Newman to the brink of a title would not be wise.

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"You can over‑prepare and take your eye off of actually preparing for the race at hand," Darian Grubb, crew chief for Hamlin and the Joe Gibbs Racing No. 11 Toyota said. "It’s going to change multiple times through the race. … Of course we want to go win and sit on a pole and be the fastest car all weekend because that makes our life easy, but the chances of that happening are pretty slim with the way the competition level has been lately."

Hamlin, a winner at Talladega Superspeedway earlier this year, advanced into the final thanks to three top 10s in the Eliminator Round, including a fifth-place result this past weekend in Phoenix.

Grubb’s been down the road before, winning a championship in 2011 with driver Tony Stewart. The tension may be higher this time around, he said, but that’s no reason to alter what’s worked thus far.

If others "say they’re going to do a lot of things differently, that means they’re not doing their job the other 37 weeks of the season," he said.

"It is pretty much business as usual, and there’s more stress and there’s more involved and more on the line when it comes down to it, but if you don’t have the preparation in place for every week, you’re never going to be competitive."

If past experience has helped Grubb stay the course, fast race cars have helped keep crew chief Rodney Childers level-headed. Kevin Harvick, driver of the Stewart-Haas Racing No. 4 Chevrolet, has led the lion’s share of laps this season, has won four times and is coming off a dominating victory at Phoenix.

"I think the biggest thing for us and this (Chase) format is just to go race and do the things that we’ve been doing all year, and really if you can go do that and do your best job, that’s really all you’ve got to do," Childers said.

"It’s not about anything but treating it just like the first race of the year … the Daytona 500. You’ve got to go put your best foot forward and go do the best job you can."

It is the second Chase appearance for Todd Gordon and Logano, the first with a legitimate shot at the title. A year ago, and under a different format, Logano started the Chase with a horrendous finish and never recovered.

"You have to approach this weekend like we did all of the races here building up to this race and continue to race aggressively," Gordon said. "The way the format is kind of laid out this year, you have to be aggressive to reap the rewards, and I think you’re going to have to be close to being a winner to take home a championship here.

"We’re going to continue to try to do the things that we’ve done, not break the format of how our practice flow has worked, how our week of preparation has worked."

Logano’s five wins with Team Penske are the most among the four drivers eligible for the title. Harvick has four, Hamlin has one while Newman is winless.

The fact that his driver hasn’t been to Victory Lane this year won’t bring big changes in the approach for the No. 31 Richard Childress Racing team, according to crew chief Luke Lambert.

While some may start slow, or face hurdles in the early going, the expectation, he said, is for all four to be running near the front when the race is nearing its end.

"I see these four cars are all going to be on point, and I think it would be very likely to see all four of them in the top five at the closing stages of the race," he said.

"I would be surprised if the champion isn’t the winner of the race."

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In-depth look at men calling the shots for title contenders

RELATED: Crew chiefs aim to keep it the same | Learn more about Newman’s pit crew
MORE: Follow your picks in the Chase Battle Grid Presented by Toyota

Where did these four guys come from? What have they done in the past?

A glance at the crew chiefs who will try to guide their respective teams to their first NASCAR Sprint Cup Series championship Sunday at Homestead-Miami Speedway:

RODNEY CHILDERS

Age: 38 | Hometown: Mooresville, North Carolina
Team: Stewart-Haas Racing No. 4 Chevrolet
Driver: Kevin Harvick
Career crew chief wins: 7
Chase appearances: 1
Championships: 0
First premier series win as crew chief:
2009 Coca-Cola 600, Charlotte Motor Speedway, with driver David Reutimann (Michael Waltrip Racing No. 00 Toyota)

Previous NASCAR racing experience

• 2003: Mechanic, Penske-Jasper Racing No. 77 Dodge in NASCAR Sprint Cup Series with driver Dave Blaney
•
2004: Car chief, Penske-Jasper Racing No. 77 Dodge with driver Brendan Gaughan
•
2005: Replaced Doug Randolph after 14 races as crew chief of the MB2 Motorsports No. 10 Chevrolet with driver Scott Riggs
•
2006: Crew chief for Riggs, MB2 Motorsports; finished 20th in points
•
2007: Crew chief for Riggs, Patrick Carpentier and Elliott Sadler (MB2 Motorsports No. 10 Dodge)
•
2008: Crew chief for Elliott Sadler (35 of 36 races) and Gillett Evernham Motorsports No. 19 Dodge; 24th-place points finish
•
2009: Began three-year tenure as crew chief for driver David Reutimann, Michael Waltrip Racing No. 00 Toyota; 16th-place points finish, which was best of relationship.
•
2012: Crew chief for No. 55 MWR Toyota with drivers Mark Martin, Brian Vickers and Michael Waltrip
•
2013: Crew chief for No. 55 MWR Toyota with drivers Mark Martin, Brian Vickers and Michael Waltrip

TODD GORDON

Age: 45 | Hometown: Camden, New York
Team: Team Penske No. 22 Ford
Driver: Joey Logano
Career crew chief wins: 6
Chase appearances: 2
Championships: 0
First premier series win as crew chief:
2013 Pure Michigan 400, Michigan International Speedway with driver Joey Logano (Team Penske No. 22 Ford)

Previous NASCAR racing experience
•
2000-02: Fabricator, mechanic and race engineer with Joe Gibbs Racing
•
2002: Joined ppc Racing in the NASCAR Nationwide Series
•
2005: Named crew chief of ppc Racing No. 10 Ford with drivers Michel Jourdain and Brent Sherman
•
2006: Crew chief for Jourdain, Todd Kluever, Kenny Wallace at ppc
•
2007: Crew chief and general manager for CJM Racing and No. 10 Chevrolet with driver Jason Keller, Kyle Krisiloff, Marc Mitchell
•
2008: Eleventh in points with Keller through 28 races before departing to join Baker Curb Racing; three races with Scott Lagasse as driver
•
2009: Crew chief for Keller at Baker Curb Racing in No. 27 Ford; eighth-place points finish
•
2010: Race engineer Diamond-Waltrip Racing
•
2011: Scored six wins (five with Brad Keselowski, one with Kurt Busch) as crew chief of Team Penske’s No. 22 NASCAR Nationwide Series Ford
•
2012: Named crew chief of the Team Penske No. 22 Ford with driver AJ Allmendinger (subsequently replaced by Sam Hornish Jr. after 17 races) in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series
•
2013: Guided Joey Logano to one win, eighth-place points finish in Chase for the Sprint Cup

DARIAN GRUBB

Age: 39 | Hometown: Floyd, Virginia
Team: Joe Gibbs Racing No. 11 Toyota
Driver: Denny Hamlin
Career crew chief wins: 21
Chase appearances: 5
Championships: 1
First premier series win as crew chief:
2006 Daytona 500, Daytona International Speedway with driver Jimmie Johnson (Hendrick Motorsports No. 48 Chevrolet)

Previous NASCAR racing experience
•
2006: Won twice in interim crew chief role for Hendrick Motorsports with driver Jimmie Johnson, including Daytona 500
•
2007: Won Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway with Hendrick Motorsports and driver Casey Mears; 15th-place points finish
•
2009: Moved to Stewart-Haas Racing to become crew chief for Tony Stewart and No. 14 SHR team. Won four points races, as well as Sprint-All Star race; sixth-place points finish
•
2010: Two wins with Stewart at SHR; seventh-place points finish
•
2011: Won five times, all in the Chase, with Stewart at SHR en route to series title after learning he would not be retained for 2012
•
2011: Named crew chief for Joe Gibbs Racing No. 11 team and driver Denny Hamlin on Dec. 9
•
2012: Guided Hamlin to five wins and sixth-place points finish
•
2013: One win with Hamlin, who missed four races due to injury; 23rd-place points finish

Note: Grubb was fined $125,000, suspended by NASCAR for six races and placed on six months probation earlier this season for a rules violation at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.

LUKE LAMBERT

Age: 32 | Hometown: Mount Airy, North Carolina
Team: Richard Childress Racing No. 31 Chevrolet
Driver: Ryan Newman
Career crew chief wins: 0
Chase appearances: 1
Championships: 0
First premier series win as crew chief:
None

Previous NASCAR racing experience
•
2005-08: Junior engineer at Richard Childress Racing
•
2008-11: Lead engineer, Richard Childress Racing No. 31 Chevrolet
•
2011: Replaced Todd Berrier as crew chief of Richard Childress Racing No. 31 Chevrolet with driver Jeff Burton for final 17 races of season; 20th-place points finish
•
2012: Crew chief of Richard Childress Racing No. 2 Chevrolet in NASCAR Nationwide Series and driver Elliott Sadler; led Sadler to four wins and second-place points finish.
•
2013: Returned to Sprint Cup Series as crew chief of Richard Childress Racing No. 31 Chevrolet with driver Jeff Burton; 20th-place points finish

Note: Lambert and Newman are one of two first-year driver/crew chief pairings contending for the championship, along with Childers/Harvick.

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No. 88 crew chief looks back before his final race on the pit box

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Steve Letarte will call one more race as a crew chief on Sunday at Homestead-Miami Speedway (3 p.m. ET, ESPN), and he says he plans to enjoy every minute as he attempts to get a 16th career win.

"We’re going to enjoy every lap, every practice session," Letarte said Tuesday on the Dirty Mo Radio podcast. "Wherever we finish, we finish. And that’s fun to say, but I’m telling you, it would make for a whole lot better story and a whole lot bigger celebration in Victory Lane."

He’s earned the right to have a fun weekend after turning around the career of NASCAR’s 11-time NMPA Most Popular Driver, but he says the credit should go to Dale Earnhardt Jr.

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In four years (2007-2010) before joining forces with Letarte — one at Dale Earnhardt Inc. and his first three with Hendrick Motorsports — Earnhardt had one win, 22 top-five finishes, 41 top 10 finishes and averaged an 18.5-place finish in the standings. In his last four seasons, he’s earned five victories, 36 top fives, 74 top 10s and an 8.5 average finish in the points standings.

"I’ve said this before and no one believes me, but the truth be known, I really don’t think I’ve done much in the last four years," Letarte said. "I think Dale has done it all, and I just get a lot of the credit.

"I think Dale and I both at the end of 2010 were at a point in our career that we had to look in the mirror and decide how much effort we were willing to put in to turn it around for both of us. Luckily for me, his answer to that question was whatever it took, and my (answer) was whatever it took. And we surrounded ourselves with a bunch of guys that had the same answer and that’s what we’ve done."

Both Letarte and Mike Davis, director of communications for JR Motorsports, remembered the turning point that led to the No. 88’s successful run. The secret was a renewed focus on racing.

"This started with a meeting with Mike, and he looked at me like I was crazy when I said, ‘Alright, Mike. Here’s the deal. I need Dale at the truck at this time. We’re going to do this, we’re going to do no media here, no appearances here and block out his time,’" Letarte recalled of his 2010 meeting with Davis.

"And I could see the look on Mike’s face like, ‘Oh yeah, this is really going to fly right here. This is going to be big.’ And really it was great, and guys like Mike helped me and support those plans and we went back to racing. We made racing the priority and that, I think, has been the No. 1 breakthrough in the last four years."

Davis shared his side of the conversation and the exchange he had with Earnhardt that led to Junior’s return to the driver that won 17 races with a 9.6 average points finish in his first seven years in the sport from 2000-2006.

"Me and you probably talked for about an hour, but what you probably don’t know and nobody knows except Dale is that I emailed him probably minutes after you and I got done meeting," Davis said. "And I told Dale, I said, ‘This is what Steve expects, and my advice here is if you do this, this is going to be your best shot at winning the championship.’"

"I felt that that absolutely was what he needed and what he wanted. He wanted that authority to keep him accountable, and you brought that. And I think absolutely that has a lot to do with his change on the personal level as well, but it started in that garage."

Letarte, who was 16 when he started at Hendrick Motorsports, said he understood the importance of accountability from his earliest days with the company, and he applied it to his teams when he became a crew chief for Jeff Gordon in 2005.

"What we learned at the 48/88, back when it was the 24 and the 48 and back when it was only the 24 run by Ray Evernham is our motto is simple: Everyone’s accountable," Letarte said. "It doesn’t guarantee any sort of success. This sport is too tough. But if no one is accountable, that guarantees pretty close to failure because there’s no way you’re going to be able to beat teams that show up prepared, show up ready to race."

After 10 years and 330 races, Letarte plans to follow the same plan for success when he heads to the NBC Sports booth in 2015.

"I think we’re going to be really serious about it," Letarte said. "Myself and Jeff Burton and Rick Allen are going to watch some races together just to see if we all watch a race the same way, we all see the same race, we all see the same exciting event.

"And then as we get closer, I think we’re really going to practice. I think we’re going to set up a booth and go in there and pretend we’re on the air."

Since announcing that he would join the NBC booth last January during preseason testing at Daytona, Letarte said his future employer has been "very respectful" of his time during his final season as a crew chief. His wife has worked with the broadcaster to set a schedule for the race analyst to follow during the first half of next season before NBC’s first race in July at Daytona.

"NBC doesn’t do anything, I’ve learned, halfway," Letarte said. "They’re committed to the sport for at least 10 years, and they’re committed to this broadcast team and we want to make sure that we give the same commitment back so we’re going to practice and do everything we can," Letarte said.

"Because my goal is the 16-year-old kid with his dad and then his grandmother sitting in the living room, I can talk to all of them. And if I can excite all three of them about NASCAR as excited as I am about NASCAR, then it’ll be job well done."

Although it will be his first full-time experience in television, Letarte’s track record at Hendrick Motorsports, the only place he’s ever worked, suggests it will be a job well done. And the man who started his career sweeping floors at the age of 16 might inspire another 16-year-old to grow up and complete a season sweep of Pocono.

"Without a doubt, I could sweep a mean floor back at 16," Letarte said. "It propelled me to some great opportunities, and I’m sure I’m going to take a minute at the top of the pit box (at Homestead-Miami) and remember it because I don’t know if I’ll ever get back on top of a pit box and call a race."

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