Christopher Bell completed his three-peat on Sunday in the desert, and his fellow drivers will have difficulty bumping him off the top spot if he and crew chief Adam Stevens maintain this torrid pace.
NASCAR.com’s Pat DeCola ranks the top 20 Cup Series contenders after the Shriners Children’s 500 at Phoenix Raceway and before the Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway (3:30 p.m. ET, FS1, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).
RELATED: 2025 Cup Series schedule | Full Cup Series standings
Analysis: Another race, another stunner by Bell as he leads a race-high 105 laps and overcomes his teammate in fantastic fashion at Phoenix to claim a third straight Cup Series win. There’s no slowing he and crew chief Adam Stevens — arguably the best tandem in the sport — with a slew of strong tracks for the No. 20 driver still on the immediate horizon. Though he’s yet to actually win at Las Vegas, Bell has a pair of runner-up finishes there in the past three races, along with three poles from 2022 on and a race-high 155 laps led last fall. Four in a row is absolutely in play.
Analysis: Byron is having a stellar season so far, but it’s being overshadowed (understandably) by what Bell is doing. Despite Bell’s trio of wins, however, Byron is still the points leader by virtue of an exceptional penchant for stage points, and it’s extremely likely this trend continues, especially at Vegas. The 2023 winner of this race seemingly always has speed out west, leading in four straight races there and 10 of the past 12.
Analysis: Larson was in a great spot to potentially win his first race of 2025 on the final restart at Phoenix had things gone sour between Bell and Denny Hamlin, but the teammates were able to race cleanly enough to both stay in front of No. 5, who brought it home right behind them in third. So, we were quite close to wondering if Larson was going to make it two in a row this weekend because his Vegas history is unreal. He has top fives in nearly half of his 17 starts and has two wins and a runner-up in the last four outings there alone. If Bell will be stopped this weekend, Larson is the most likely to do it. | MORE: Hamlin, Larson just short at Phoenix in chase of Bell
Analysis: Short of wrecking his teammate, there wasn’t a whole lot else Hamlin could have done to keep it in front of Bell on the final lap, so he’ll have to settle for his best finish of the season as Sunday’s runner-up. He’ll now try to build on that to find some much-needed momentum at Vegas, where No. 11 has almost always been well-above average but didn’t break through for his first (and, to date, only) win until 2021. | MORE: Larson’s view of how Hamlin lost race at Phoenix
Analysis: This says more about his strong qualifying efforts than anything, but, perhaps notably, Reddick has finished worse than he started in three of the season’s four races (and four in five, if you count The Clash). That may be worth keeping an eye on as the season continues, but for now, it feels like he actually could trend toward his first career Vegas win potentially this weekend. After starting 18th in this race last year, he maneuvered his way all the way to the front to finish runner-up in every stage.
Analysis: Elliott has just a pair of top 10s this season to go with his … pair of laps led … yet the 2020 Cup Series champion remains fifth in the standings thanks to his strong 31.0 points per race average so far. That could come to a screeching halt at Vegas, however, as No. 9 has a curious-at-best history at the Nevada track. Elliott has several strong runs there and had a five-race stretch of finding the front of the field from 2019-21 but overall has no wins, a 19.6 average finish and has not found the top 10 there since 2022.
Analysis: Blaney has scored fewer and fewer points in each race so far this season … which would be a problem if he didn’t set such a high bar in the Daytona 500 with 51 of them. Thus, the 2023 champ is still fourth in the standings despite dwindling returns, but he surely would’ve had more than 22 at Phoenix had his engine not expired and sent him to a P28 finish. A recovery could be in order this weekend at Vegas, where Blaney has yet to win but has led in eight of the past 11 races.
Analysis: We’ve seen bouts of consistently strong finishes from Bowman before, but this one feels like it could stick as he’s shown speed on a variety of tracks so far en route to what would be a career-best 12.0 average finish and three top 10s in the first four races. While he has just five top 10s in 15 Vegas starts, No. 48 is a recent spring race winner there and actually has four top fives from 2020 onward. He’s a dark-horse candidate to dethrone Mr. Bell.
Analysis: We’re four races into 2025, and Busch has already amassed 30% of the top-10 finishes that he had from last year’s 36-race campaign — certainly what you want to see if you’re a “Rowdy” fan. We’ll see if the Las Vegas native can keep it rolling at his home track, which he hasn’t won at since 2009 (his only victory) but where he did turn in a strong third-place run in his first year with RCR in the fall.
Analysis: Logano looked great for much of the weekend at Phoenix, nearly snagging the pole and still leading 83 laps out in the desert … but the reigning champ walked out of Arizona still without a single top 10 this season as frustration begins to mount with the No. 22 team. Nothing that a good ol’ trip to Vegas can’t fix for Logano and Co., though, as the three-time title winner has won four races there from 2019 on and is the most recent victor, having won there in the fall to vault him into the Championship 4.
Analysis: Buescher said in his press conference on Saturday that he used to “hate” coming to Phoenix, but after his fourth straight top 10 and third top five in that span, No. 17 probably won’t mind coming back here in the fall, especially if he’s still in title contention. His championship mettle will get a true test this weekend at Vegas, where, yes, he did finish in the top 10 last fall, but it was just his second such finish in 16 starts there, with the other coming all the way back in 2020. | MORE: Three Up, Three Down: Phoenix
Analysis: Wallace clearly has speed this year, yet thanks to unlucky circumstances, is on pace for his worst average finish (21.8) since he collected a single top 10 in his 2019 sophomore campaign for Richard Petty Motorsports (23.9). Though he did scrape together a P4 in this race in 2023, Wallace could continue to slip at Vegas, where No. 23 has a rough 22.2 average finish and just a pair of top 10s across his 14 starts, with laps led in just one of them. | MORE: Wallace mashes outside wall hard after flat right-front tire
Analysis: There’s still a good deal of hope Chastain will be competing for wins in a big way this year, but with just one top 10 and his worst average finish since his Chip Ganassi Racing days so far, he’s got a ways to go before that feels like it could actually happen. That could change this weekend, however, as Chastain has been quite good at Vegas under the Trackhouse Racing banner, with five top-seven finishes in the last six races there.
Analysis: Gilliland finished 27th in the flukiest race of the year so far (Daytona) but otherwise has been a top-15 presence since, nearly turning in his third such finish in as many weeks but falling just shy at Phoenix (17th). And now, for the gut check — Gilliland has yet to finish better than 23rd at Las Vegas in six tries, and that result came in his first start there in 2022, averaging a finish of 27.6 since. If he’s able to turn in his best career showing there this weekend, there could be something here.
Analysis: Briscoe had an amazing week until he didn’t, with his team winning its appeal from a Daytona penalty (and subsequent reinstatement of his points) before getting caught up in the Stage 2 fracas at Phoenix and only adding another two tallies onto his total. It’s still a far departure from where he was a week ago at the bottom of the standings, and he’ll gladly take the incremental forward momentum heading into a track where he has just one top 10 in eight attempts for a 22.8 average finish. | MORE: Briscoe, Haley, Keselowski involved in Phoenix melee during Stage 2
Analysis: It’s been a somewhat frustrating start for McDowell, who clearly seems to have cars capable of competing each week but thus far has yet to land a top 10 despite what was shaping up to be a super positive weekend in Phoenix. Even still, No. 71 is on pace for his best career average finish — an average finish that very likely is going to take a hit this weekend at Vegas, where McDowell has never finished in the top 10 in 22 starts.
Analysis: Everything has to be taken with a grain of salt right now until we get a little further into the schedule, but credit where it’s due — JHN has put together a strong season so far, on pace to better his best career average finish (22.4) by nearly 10 positions (12.8) through four races. It’s easy to think that could come to an abrupt end at Vegas, but I’m here to tell you that it very possibly will not, as Nemechek turned in a ninth-place run there just last fall.
Analysis: Obviously, this is the case for several drivers so far, and it won’t wind up being the case for many of them, but Stenhouse is among those on pace for a career-best average finish (15.5). Why it’s particularly notable for him, though, is that he’s also on pace for a career-worst average start (27.3), so he’s finding ways to move through the field successfully, which could be a sign of things to come for the veteran. Both of his Las Vegas top 10s (one of which was a top five) came in the spring race there, but they stand as the lonely pair among 19 total starts.
Analysis: Hocevar was not spared from Spire Motorsports’ nightmare afternoon at Phoenix, which started dream-like when the cars lined up and all three drivers started in the top eight. He hasn’t quite shown what he’s capable of at Vegas yet — though he was 15th in this race last year — but it’s a fast track, and he’s a fast driver. Only a matter of time before it clicks.
Analysis: Josh Berry … Cup Series factor? It’s starting to look that way, and if the No. 21 car truly is an extension of Team Penske as a pseudo fourth car, there’s an excellent chance the 34-year-old sophomore will be adept enough to adapt to his new digs right away and potentially compete for a playoff spot. With Las Vegas — a strong Penske track — being the venue for two of his five career Xfinity Series wins, there’s an outside chance he picks up his provisional playoff spot this weekend before his satellite teammates, including the reigning champion. | MORE: Berry capitalizes on Team Penske’s strengths at Phoenix
