Christopher Bell outlasted some heavy hitters at Circuit of The Americas to earn his second consecutive victory in just the season’s third race.
NASCAR.com’s Pat DeCola ranks the top 20 Cup Series contenders after the EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix at Circuit of The Americas and before Sunday’s Shriners Children’s 500 at Phoenix Raceway (3:30 p.m. ET, FS1, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).
RELATED: 2025 Cup Series schedule | Full Cup Series standings
Analysis: I mean, jeez. There’s no denying Bell was likely destined for greatness this season as he elevated into a more senior role among the JGR driver cohort and had plenty of motivation after how his season ended last year, but this is really something. Two wins in the books already and you get the sense many, many more are coming. As the most recent winner of this race — and laps-led leader in last fall’s championship — three in a row might not just be possible, it may be likely.
Analysis: Gosh, this guy is good, and it very nearly could’ve been him taking his second trip to Victory Lane this past weekend instead of Bell. As it is, Byron still holds the points lead and it’s clear he’s going to be a major player once again this year as his star continues to rise. Phoenix is already an exceptional track for him as well, and the 2023 spring winner has led double-digit laps in four of the past six races there.
Analysis: Reddick got his first taste of the Championship 4 last year … and was the only one of the four not to lead a lap in the championship race, finishing sixth behind eventual champ Joey Logano, his teammate Ryan Blaney and Byron. Needless to say, he’ll be itching to get back out west this weekend and erase the sour taste from his mouth and maybe replace it with some champagne. Arguably the best winless driver of 2025 so far may no longer hold that distinction by Sunday evening, because he may no longer qualify.
Analysis: Don’t sweat Blaney’s P19 at COTA as it came along with a strong 27 points — just nine fewer than his P4 run a week earlier at Atlanta — as No. 12 looks to be formidable this year once again. He might hold the distinction as the best driver at Phoenix to have never won there, averaging a 10.4 finish with 13 top 10s in 18 starts … including a truly ridiculous four runner-ups in the last five races. There has never been a driver more set to break through at a track than Ryan Blaney at Phoenix.
Analysis: It’s a bit shocking to see just the two laps led next to Elliott’s name so far, as The Clash winner has felt much more competitive than that through the first month of on-track activity. With 553 laps led scattered across eight of his 17 Phoenix starts, there’s a strong chance we see No. 9 out front at some point on Sunday. And perhaps in Victory Lane, as well.
Analysis: Not a whole lot a driver can do with just three wheels on the car, even if that driver happens to be Kyle Larson, so we’ll just chalk that one up to bad luck and move on. Phoenix feels like a track he’s close to mastering, and despite just the one win there, No. 5 has led a strong 395 laps for an average finish of 11.0. He’ll be among the favorites entering the weekend and, seeing as he really has to play catchup now with rival Bell winning the past two races, there’s a strong chance he cracks open the win column on Sunday.
Analysis: Logano could’ve had a much better day at COTA before fading late; No. 22 was the Stage 1 runner-up, which helped him salvage a decent afternoon despite finishing 24th. We could start to see him turn on the jets from here, though — the three-time and defending champion obviously knows how to get it done at Phoenix, entering the weekend as the most recent winner with four total victories there. That said, he did crash out of this race last year for his second-worst Phoenix finish across 32 starts.
Analysis: Beyond the eventual P20 finish, Wallace had a pretty strong weekend out in Austin, landing a front-row starting spot alongside his teammate along with a stage win and 30 total points (to match seventh-place finisher Chris Buescher). We keep hearing about a “new” Bubba Wallace this year and so far it’s bearing out. Let’s see if this refreshed No. 23 driver can build off last fall’s seventh-place run at Phoenix — just his third top 10 there in 14 tries.
Analysis: Hamlin’s race got a little derailed at COTA after contact with Austin Dillon, and he could not rally to make it back-to-back top 10s after a strong Atlanta run. While he has just two wins in 29 starts — one of which was a couple of generations of car ago — No. 11 always seems to be a factor at Phoenix and it feels likely we’ll see him at the front of the field at some point, especially where he tends to qualify so well there.
Analysis: It’s early yet, but Bowman’s 13.7 average finish would stand as a career-best and he has already compiled 25% of the laps led that he had for the entire 2024 season in just three races, so you have to like what you’re seeing here so far. The Arizona native gets to test that out at his home track this weekend, however, as No. 48 has just a pair of top 10s in 19 starts there, with one of them coming all the way back in 2016 in fill-in duty for Dale Earnhardt Jr. That said, the other one came in this race in 2023 so it’s not like he can’t make it happen.
Analysis: Look, we’re just along for the ride here and have no idea if 2025 is going to really be “Rowdy” rounding back into form or if this hot start of his is just an oasis, but just enjoy it while it’s here. Busch has been dominant and then some for nearly his entire career, so it’s just felt … off? … seeing him go winless the past 60 races. It sure seemed like he was headed for Victory Lane this past Sunday, though, and it’s encouraging to see that kind of speed as he now heads to one of his best tracks. Surely, it’ll all be on display and he’ll be strong again at Phoenix, right?
Analysis: The first two races of the year Cindric looked like a force of nature, even if Atlanta wound up not quite going his way at the end and it resulted in a P28 after 47 laps led. You’d think, in Austin of all places, this would continue at COTA, but alas … not quite. His 2025 prowess will receive another solid test this weekend, however, with Phoenix so far shutting him out from the top 10 in six tries for an overall average finish of 24.0.
Analysis: Chastain isn’t lighting the world on fire by any means (though Elliott Nation might be another story) but we’d probably be looking at his season a little differently so far if he hadn’t wrecked out of the Daytona 500 and finished 40th; he’s been pretty good otherwise. He could start to enter the conversation a little more this weekend at Phoenix, where he won the 2023 finale and had a pair of top threes in 2022.
Analysis: The top 10 at COTA was littered with the typical assortment of names we’ve grown accustomed to on road courses, Buescher right up there among them in seventh, for his second top 10 of the year. Phoenix historically hasn’t been a great track for him, but he’s really turned it around there in recent years. All four of his top 10s have come from 2022-on and he enters this weekend as the defending runner-up. Could happen.
Analysis: The road courses will likely continue to be McDowell’s bread-and-butter and his best chances to win his way into the playoffs (along with superspeedways, of course) and he had a great day at COTA (34 points, three laps led) but ultimately fell short of his prize, landing 11th. The Arizona native certainly would’ve loved to return home already holding a playoff spot, because he has just a pair of top 10s at Phoenix in 28 starts there. That said, both of those came in the last three races there, and he should have a solid weekend ahead with former Phoenix master Rodney Childers now in-house and at his disposal.
Analysis: Things could certainly be going a little bit better for Briscoe in his maiden season with Joe Gibbs Racing, but it’s extremely early and more than likely you’re still looking at a playoff driver here. In fact, there’s a significant chance he and the No. 19 team turn things around in a big way this weekend, as Briscoe enters with Phoenix being one of his best tracks (one win and four top 10s in eight starts) and a place that JGR, in particular, excels at. Not impossible we see a literal-bottom-of-the-standings-to-third-driver-locked-into-playoffs glow up come Sunday.
Analysis: Coming into a road-course race with that much heat is a recipe for disaster for any driver hoping to actually finish said road-course race, but Hocevar managed to get out of COTA without ruffling too many feathers en route to a solid P13. It’ll be tight quarters once again this weekend at the 1-mile Phoenix, where No. 77 actually has a trio of Cup Series starts dating back to 2023, with no finishes worse than 19th. Sounds like he’ll be in the mix once again on Sunday.
Analysis: Van Gisbergen was exceptional, as expected, at COTA, turning in 23 laps led en route to a 45-point day, just one shy of Busch’s race-high 46. This catapulted him an eye-popping 16 spots up the standings and there’s actually a solid chance he could continue to climb. SVG obviously gets most of his attention on the road courses, but he fared reasonably well at Phoenix — a difficult track in both complexity and ability to pass — in the Xfinity Series last year in his first crack at it. No. 88 nearly turned in a top five in his first run and averaged a 9.0 finish for the year there.
Analysis: Stenhouse will have to wait for that elusive second career road-course top 10 to come in perhaps his next try — which will be his 42nd start on one — but he’s probably not too upset about a 19-point day to remain in the top 10 in points, all told. Unfortunately, his solid start is at risk of running afoul at Phoenix, where No. 47 has just straight up not been good over a solid decade-plus of racing there in the Cup Series. Stenhouse has just two top 10s in 24 starts — both of which came in 2017 — and has led just a pair of laps out front across the 7,424 circuits he’s run there.
Analysis: Gilliland proved that his recent improvements on road courses weren’t solely because he had a ringer constantly in his ear as a teammate, with McDowell now racing for Spire Motorsports and the new No. 34 driver — Gilliland — earning his first top 10 since Indianapolis last year this past weekend at COTA. His run here in Power Rankings could be short-lived, with so much talent in the field this year, but with a pair of top 20s at Phoenix last year — including leading 14 laps in this particular race — expect him to hang around for at least another week.
