The Daytona 500 is rightfully called the Super Bowl of motorsports. It jump-starts each NASCAR Cup Series season with the sport’s biggest spectacle right out of the gate, and its winner claims the coveted Harley J. Earl Trophy — a prize that can define a driver’s legacy if they have one, or leave a glaring hole in an otherwise illustrious career if they don’t.
But it’s also true that Daytona is the ultimate place where anything can — and does — happen.
When I looked into it last summer, I found that Daytona was the track where the pre-race No. 1 rated driver (according to my driver rankings) had the worst average finish of any regular Cup Series destination, as well as the worst pre-race ranking for the eventual winner on average. Basically, chaos reigns on NASCAR’s biggest stage.
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(Incidentally, that’s what made William Byron’s win at Daytona a year ago so special, as he prevailed as arguably the top driver in the sport, a rare combination.)
All of this is why predicting Daytona is a bit of a fool’s errand. Some drivers tend to do meaningfully better than others on restrictor plate tracks, but there’s also a whole lot of good fortune involved in giving yourself a chance to drive for the checkered flag late. That doesn’t mean we can’t at least speculate about who might be the lucky winner, however, especially in a field where 37 entrants are seeking their first career Daytona 500 win.
With that in mind, we thought we would look at first-time winners from recent history (since the late 1980s) and categorize them based on their age, experience and previous performance at the time of victory. We sorted our groups from least to most surprising, then looked for the drivers from 2025 who might fit each historical profile.
Type 1: Rising superstars
Historical examples: Davey Allison (1992), Jeff Gordon (1997), Dale Earnhardt Jr. (2004), Jimmie Johnson (2006), Kevin Harvick (2007), Joey Logano (2015), William Byron (2024)
This group is the cream of the crop — drivers who were right at the beginning of their primes (average age: 28.1 years old) when they won their first Daytona 500s, achieving a potential that had been laid out for them from the time they entered the Cup Series. For this group, winning the Great American Race felt inevitable, and was in most cases the stepping stone to championships and/or Hall of Fame legacies. The only historical drivers in this group who didn’t win at least one Cup championship were Allison — who seemed destined for it before a tragic helicopter crash claimed his life at age 32; Dale Jr. — the most popular (and arguably most iconic) driver of his generation, whose late career was hampered by concussions; and Byron — whose career story hasn’t been written yet. It’s a good bet that he will use his 2024 Daytona victory as a stepping stone to championship success down the road.
Possible 2025 candidates: Christopher Bell, Chase Elliott, Tyler Reddick
Bell just turned 30 in December, while Elliott and Reddick are still 29, so all fit the profile of young guns who are coming off phenomenally successful seasons and looking for their first Daytona 500 wins. Between the three, Elliott is the best on restrictor plate tracks, so he is probably more likely to punch his ticket into this group — but Bell isn’t far behind, and Reddick is coming off of his best plate-track season according to my Adjusted Points+ index metric, with an average performance 26% better than the Cup Series average at drafting tracks. It would not be a surprise if any of this trio were to win this year’s race.
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Type 2: Overdue legends
Historical examples: Darrell Waltrip (1989), Dale Earnhardt Sr. (1998), Kurt Busch (2017)
Members of this group used to be like the guys from Type 1 … except they were never quite able to get their breakthrough win until much later in their careers. Taking the average between Waltrip, Busch and Dale Sr., this type of Daytona winner did it at age 42.3, in race No. 536.3 overall in their careers and after 17.7 tries in the sport’s most famous race. Perhaps the greatest version of this archetype came in the form of Earnhardt, who famously had never won the 500 in his first 19 tries despite being arguably the greatest plate racer on the planet and winning the summer Daytona race multiple times. When he finally won the biggest race of his life in 1998, he received congratulations from every single member of every pit crew as he crept his car toward Victory Lane.
Possible 2025 candidates: Brad Keselowski, Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr.
The presence of these three legends on this list — Keselowski and Busch as full-time drivers still, with Truex running a special attempt in retirement with Tricon Garage — is all the proof needed that Daytona can be a cruel, cruel place. Together, the trio has recorded 27 total top 10s at the track overall in their careers, but none have won the most coveted race in NASCAR. Among the three, Keselowski is coming off the best season, though Busch had better numbers on plate tracks in 2024 and finished the race last year.
Type 3: Experienced contenders
Historical examples: Ernie Irvan (1991), Dale Jarrett (1993), Sterling Marlin (1994), Ward Burton (2002), Ryan Newman (2008), Matt Kenseth (2009), Jamie McMurray (2010), Denny Hamlin (2016)
This group belongs somewhere between the rising superstars and overdue legends, both in terms of experience and talent. On average, these winners were 35.1 years old with 245.5 career races and 8.1 attempts at the Daytona 500 at the time of their first victories. They hadn’t quite banged their head against the wall as much as an Earnhardt, but they had also passed through the young-hotshot phase of their careers to become respected veterans who were still great drivers.
Some are admittedly borderline fits for the group: Hamlin was on another level of performance from the rest, but at age 35, he was a bit long in the tooth for the rising star label. Of course, he added two more wins at the 500 after grabbing this one. Irvan had only run 89 career races by 1991, though he was coming off a great season in 1990. And while Marlin was something of a journeyman, on his third team in three years in 1994, he had been an undeniably elite driver from 1988-92. Overall, this group consists of experienced drivers with strong credentials who finally got the crowning win of a career while still near their peak.
Possible 2025 candidates: Ryan Blaney, Kyle Larson, Alex Bowman, Bubba Wallace, Daniel Suárez, Chris Buescher, Ross Chastain
Because this is a bit of an in-between, catch-all type of category, it features a large group of contenders from this year’s field. Some, like Blaney and Larson in particular, could also be considered for the up-and-coming star group, but both are north of 30 years old and have more than 340 races (and a decade of Daytona 500 experience) under their belts, nearly double the averages for the Rising Superstars. But make no mistake — both are elite, even if they are coming off less dominant seasons on plate tracks than usual. It might be surprising to learn that Larson is a substantially below-average plate racer in his career. The rest all fit the mold of the respected veteran who is still a threat, with some degree of history of success on plate tracks.
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Type 4: Unproven stunners
Historical examples: Derrike Cope (1990), Trevor Bayne (2011), Austin Dillon (2018), Austin Cindric (2022)
This is the first of two classifications belonging to your classic out-of-nowhere Daytona winners. Type 4 leans more in the direction of inexperience as its defining attribute — among the quartet above, only Cope was over the age of 28 at the time of his shocking win, and only Dillon had run more than 73 career Cup Series races. Bayne and Cindric stand out as particular avatars for this type of winner: Cindric won the 2022 Daytona 500 at age 23 in just his eighth career start (and second at Daytona), while Bayne’s victory in 2011 happened at age 20 in his second career start and first ever race at the Daytona 500. For his part, Cope won in only his third try at the 500. Sadly, this group hasn’t tended to do much after their life-altering achievement, winning a grand total of only five additional races after taking the checkered at Daytona. However, both Dillon and Cindric scored wins during the 2024 Cup Series season.
Possible 2025 candidates: Ty Gibbs, Carson Hocevar, Chase Briscoe, Noah Gragson, Cody Ware, Shane van Gisbergen, Justin Haley, Zane Smith
Ironically, a Gibbs win at Daytona in a few years might qualify him as a rising superstar if he strings together some playoff campaigns and wins races elsewhere (we’re still waiting for his first career victory). But if he does it on Sunday in just his third try at the 500, the 22-year-old Gibbs would have more in common with the other names on our historical list. He is, however, in some decent company among the 2025 candidates listed above, as each has some kind of calling card to claim — from elite new equipment (Briscoe) to a nice record at plate tracks (Ware, Haley) or just rapid improvement overall (van Gisbergen, whose age is out of place here but definitely fits the theme of inexperience).
Type 5: Out-of-nowhere veterans
Historical examples: Michael Waltrip (2001), Michael McDowell (2021), Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (2023)
The other side of our Cinderella coin involves drivers with plenty of experience, but also guys who gave little indication that they were going to ever join the prestigious club of Daytona 500 winners. Any salute to this archetype has to dive into the story of Waltrip, who was given a career life raft by Dale Earnhardt, Inc. before the 2001 season and immediately ended a 462-race winless streak to start his career with a win at Daytona — but lost his best friend in the process.
McDowell was also a career journeyman with zero wins in 357 starts before victory at Daytona in 2021, and while Stenhouse had won before the 2023 Daytona 500, he had long since shed his potential as a rising star and was riding a 199-race drought of his own before becoming one of the most unheralded winners in Daytona history. What’s impressive about this trio is the fact that each used Daytona as a springboard for a career renaissance: Waltrip was a consistent contender each of the next few years at DEI, McDowell had a strong 2022 season and won again in 2023 and Stenhouse also returned to the winner’s circle in 2024.
Possible 2025 candidates: AJ Allmendinger, Ryan Preece, JJ Yeley, BJ McLeod
By definition, this is probably the toughest category to forecast because it involves journeyman veterans with limited records of success achieving an incredible late-career breakthrough. But there are a few names who stand out in the 2025 field. Allmendinger is the most likely pick. The 43-year-old is back in a regular Cup ride after being part-time in 2024, and he has a strong record on plate tracks with 11 previous Daytona 500s under his belt. Preece would be a feel-good story after surviving a scary series of flips at the 2023 Daytona summer race. Yeley is making his seventh Daytona 500 start and isn’t a bad plate racer either. McLeod has experience, too. Should he qualify, this will be career race No. 145 for the veteran, including six Daytona 500s — and he’s done better at plate tracks than other track types.