Posted on by Dustin Albino

The expected tire wear that was on full display in a wild spring race at Bristol Motor Speedway didn’t occur in practice on Friday. That doesn’t mean tire wear should be forgotten about as lap times still fell off, just not as drastic as in March. Hendrick Motorsports beamed in qualifying, claiming the top three spots overall. Joe Gibbs Racing had a solid day at the office, with three of its four drivers making the final round of qualifying. Spire Motorsports even got a pair of its entries into the top 10.

RELATED: Set your Fantasy Live lineups

Dustin Albino’s race-day lineup:

Starter 1: Kyle Larson

Starter 2: Denny Hamlin

Starter 3: Christopher Bell

Starter 4: Ty Gibbs

Starter 5: Chris Buescher

Garage pick: Chase Elliott

NEXT IN LINE: Alex Bowman, William Byron, Ryan Blaney, Chase Briscoe

RISING: The Round of 16 has gone as planned for Bowman and the No. 48 team. His 79 points scored is tied with Austin Cindric for the most in the round of all playoff drivers. Bowman won’t have traffic out his windshield when he takes the green flag on Saturday, scoring his first pole award since last year’s Daytona 500 (he started first last spring at Richmond by the metric). It’s his first pole award on a non-superspeedway since the penultimate race of the 2016 season, filling in for Dale Earnhardt Jr. The No. 48 Chevrolet cracked the top 10 in practice on single-lap speed but was middle-of-the-road over the long run.

Scoring a monster points day compared to the rest of the playoff field at Watkins Glen, Chase Briscoe experienced a 27-point swing to the elimination line, one of the bigger swings in recent memory. His biggest hurdle in hanging on to one of the final spots, he thought, would be qualifying. The No. 14 team delivered on Friday, as Briscoe will start fifth. We’ve seen this story in past Bristol races (Briscoe has yet to score a top 10 after two top-10 starting spots in four starts), so I’m not moving the No. 14 car into my lineup.

FALLING: With subpar performances to open the Round of 16 at Atlanta and Watkins Glen, Brad Keselowski’s bid for a second Cup championship could come to a screeching halt this weekend. Keselowski, a three-time Bristol winner, lacked speed in qualifying and will take the green flag on Saturday night from 23rd position. It’s not over for Keselowski, though, as his RFK Racing teammate Chris Buescher won the Bristol night race in 2022 after starting 20th – and 500 laps is a long time at the half-mile bullring. However, it might be a stretch to score quality stage points.

After Daniel Suarez reflected on his recent track record at Bristol last weekend, he joked that he wanted a 75-point cushion over the elimination line entering Bristol. Instead, he is 36 points to the good, and while that is comfortable, the No. 99 team might be stressing about its speed – or lack thereof. Suarez was listed as someone to stay away from in Fastlane earlier this week, but it’s even worse than anticipated. Suarez was 35th on 10-lap averages in practice and matched that in qualifying.

FEATURED MATCHUPS: 

Denny Hamlin vs. Kyle Larson: This highly competitive matchup is about as tough to decide now as it was projected earlier this week. Larson appeared to have a tick more speed, leading the way on 25- and 30-lap averages. Hamlin had solid pace, but not as lights out as Larson, who might have the best car in the field entering Saturday evening.

Brad Keselowski vs. Martin Truex Jr.: At some point, Truex’s racing luck has to flip, right? The only problem is, historically, Bristol is among his worst tracks on the schedule. Meanwhile, it was the No. 19 Toyota that was superior to Keselowski in qualifying. Truex did fall off heavier on the long run and, because this is a heads-up matchup, I’ll keep Keselowski. RFK Racing has been stellar at Bristol, so all hope shouldn’t be lost on the No. 6 car this weekend.

Chase Briscoe vs. Ty Gibbs: In one of Briscoe’s most impressive qualifying efforts of the year, this matchup got more challenging to decide. Gibbs nearly wiped out in qualifying and still managed to barely miss the cut and will line up 13th. I’ll stay with the No. 54 car, which has led more than 100 laps in the last two Bristol events.

Chase Elliott vs. Ryan Blaney: On first glance, I almost placed Blaney into the “falling” category. It was a mediocre day for Team Penske, with all three of its entries starting 20th or worse. But the No. 12 car showed great speed during longer runs, leading the way on 10-, 15- and 20-lap averages in practice. But history leans in the favor of Elliott. He was the lowest of the HMS drivers in qualifying, but still had a respectable showing in 10th.

Posted on by Reid Spencer

BRISTOL, Tenn. — Alex Bowman continued his solid effort in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs on Friday, securing the pole position for Saturday’s Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway (7 p.m. ET, USA, NBC Sports App, PRN Radio and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

In the final round of times trials at the 0.533-mile high-banked concrete track, Bowman sped around the “World’s Fastest Half Mile” in 15.142 seconds (126.720 mph) — the fastest lap of the day — to earn his first Busch Light Pole Award of the season by 0.003 seconds over Hendrick Motorsports teammate William Byron (126.695 mph).

Because Bowman and Byron both qualified in Group B, Byron will start third, with fellow Hendrick driver Kyle Larson (fastest from Group A at 126.378 mph) on the front row beside Bowman.

RELATED: Starting lineup | At-track photos

After finishing fifth at Atlanta and 18th at Watkins Glen, Bowman enters the elimination race fourth in the playoff standings, 41 points above the current cut line for the Round of 12. After Saturday’s race, the bottom four of the 16 playoff drivers will be eliminated from title eligibility.

“In qualifying, I had a lot of grip,” said Bowman, who won his first pole at Bristol and the fifth of his career. “I was a little bit too tight. It was one of those situations where you run a lap, and it’s either going to be really good or really slow. When you’re tight, you slow down so you can turn.

“Obviously, after the first round (where he tied Chase Briscoe for the fastest lap), I felt really good about it. Thankful to start up front and qualify well. Obviously, qualifying has been not our strongest suit over the years, so being the cutoff race and everything, starting up front is really important.”

With Chase Elliott claiming the 10th spot on the grid, all four Hendrick drivers advanced to the final round.

Martin Truex Jr., who starts the night race 15th in the standings and 14 points below the cut line, helped his chances with a qualifying effort that earned the fourth starting spot.

Likewise, teammate Denny Hamlin — six points on the wrong side of the bubble — hopes to make good use of his eighth-place qualifying effort. Hamlin has won the last two races at Thunder Valley.

Briscoe will start fifth, one position ahead of points leader Christopher Bell. Non-playoff drivers Carson Hocevar and Corey LaJoie, both of Spire Motorsports, will take the green flag from the seventh and ninth positions, respectively.

Other playoff drivers qualified as follows: Ty Gibbs 13th, Tyler Reddick 15th, Joey Logano (already locked into the Round of 12 with a victory at Atlanta) 20th, defending series champion Ryan Blaney 22nd, Austin Cindric 27th, Harrison Burton 34th and Daniel Suárez 35th.

Burton has the highest mountain to climb. He’s 16th in the Playoff standings, 20 points below the cutoff with elimination looming.

Gibbs fastest in practice

The No. 54 Joe Gibbs Racing driver put down the quickest lap of 124.719 mph during Friday afternoon’s 45-minute practice session. Blaney (124.018 mph), Larson (123.987 mph), Byron (123.987 mph) and Elliott (123.833 mph) put down the five fastest circuits.

MORE: Practice results

Blaney was fastest in 10, 15 and 20 consecutive lap averages, while Larson bested the field in 25 and 30 consecutive lap averages.

Contributing: Staff report

Posted on by Zack Albert

BRISTOL, Tenn. — Spire Motorsports and Rick Ware Racing announced Friday that the two organizations will swap drivers Justin Haley and Corey LaJoie, starting with next weekend’s NASCAR Cup Series race at Kansas Speedway on Sept. 29 (3 p.m. ET, USA, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App).

LaJoie will take over the RWR No. 51 Ford, and Haley will slide into the No. 7 Spire Chevrolet for the final seven races of the season in what team representatives termed “an old-fashioned player trade.” The news was announced Friday at Bristol Motor Speedway in a joint news conference with Rick Ware Racing president Robby Benton, Spire co-owner Jeff Dickerson, and both drivers.

Saturday’s Bass Pro Shops Night Race (7 ET, USA, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App) will be the last event for each driver in their current rides. Dickerson said that Haley will be the No. 7 team’s driver in 2025, pairing with incoming crew chief Rodney Childers; Benton indicated that the Ware group will reassess its plans for next season after the final seven races.

RELATED: Key players in Silly Season | Bristol weekend schedule

Haley joined the Rick Ware-owned team this season after the organization announced signing him to a multiyear deal in July 2023. The 25-year-old driver’s partnership with Spire marks a return to the organization that gave him his Cup Series debut in 2019 when he landed his first premier-series victory in just his third career start at Daytona International Speedway.

Spire has made big moves in the last 12 months, purchasing Kyle Busch Motorsports, signing veteran Michael McDowell for 2025 and bringing in a championship-winning crew chief in Childers next season. Haley said those conversations about a potential shift started in earnest near the two-week midsummer break in the Cup Series schedule.

“Monday’s a new page for me, kind of back to where I started my first Cup Series career races and spent a lot of time there while I was racing Xfinity, doing both,” said Haley, who sits 32nd in the Cup Series points with a pair of top 10s in 2024. “So yeah, when Jeff Dickerson called me with this opportunity, presented it, I knew it was something that gave me a little bit more long-term stability and a good path for the future.”

LaJoie, 32, has been with Spire since the start of the 2021 campaign. He signed a multiyear extension in August 2023 but announced in late July he would not return to the No. 7 Chevy next season. LaJoie called the pending departure “bittersweet,” considering the bonds he’s built during the last three-plus years.

“It’s a band of brothers because you are forged just in the trenches of Sunday racing,” said LaJoie, 28th in the Cup Series standings entering Bristol. “Those guys have inspired and provided for me an incredible platform, and I’m excited for some clarity over what my future might look like to finish the rest of the year with Robbie and Rick and the entire group over there. It’s unprecedented. It’s going to be interesting to just change over seats, but at the end of the day, I can’t see what the number on the side of the car is, so I’m going to drive that thing just like I stole it each and every week and try to keep the wheels pointing in same direction and see where it all shakes out from there.”

MORE: Cup Series standings | Cup Series schedule

Benton did not shed greater light on how RWR’s two-car roster might take shape for next season, except to say that both the Nos. 15 and 51 entries will be on the Cup Series grid in 2025. Haley has driven the No. 51 Ford in all 28 races so far, and the No. 15 Mustang has been split among Kaz Grala, Cody Ware and Riley Herbst.

Benton said that the final seven-race stretch will be telling.

“We still think the world of Justin. He’s helped us tremendously this year to build RWR to what it is, and to make it attractive enough for someone like Corey to want to come here and get a shot,” Benton said. “So what we’re trying to do is take advantage of an opportunity that I think helps everyone. For us, it gives us the last part of the season to evaluate how well we work together. I think we would be foolish not to lean into the opportunity to work with somebody like Corey, but we need to make sure that we can do what we need to do together, right? And that’s the unique opportunity we can take in these last seven races.”

Posted on by Zach Sturniolo

BRISTOL, Tenn. — The last time Dale Earnhardt Jr. climbed from his NASCAR Xfinity Series car at Bristol Motor Speedway, flames were nipping at his ankles as a mechanical failure parked him late in the race.

Earnhardt Jr. returns to the 0.533-mile bullring Friday night to drive the No. 88 JR Motorsports Chevrolet in what he said may be his final start in a NASCAR national series race as he has no plans to compete in the Xfinity Series in 2025.

RELATED: Dale Jr. through the years | Xfinity schedule

“Well, I’m not planning on racing next year,” Earnhardt said Friday in the Bristol media center. “I’ll be foolish to say I’m never going to run again because I don’t know well enough to stay away from it, and I’ll probably miss it next year and be absolutely willing to sign up because of anything that might be beneficial to JR Motorsports. I have to remind fans and people that follow us that I run this race and have ran this race over the last several years because of the big benefit that it is to JR Motorsports. It’s a package deal where Hellmann’s and Unilever has put their logos on Justin’s [Allgaier] car and it’s helped fill out that car. And I don’t have a requirement to run next year, so I may just not do it. And I will miss it terribly, regret that I didn’t race and probably in 2026 find me somewhere that I can go compete in the Xfinity Series again. But right now, I don’t have any plans.”

Earnhardt is a two-time series champion with 24 wins, 71 top fives and 95 top 10s through 146 starts and was inducted into the NASCAR Hall of Fame as a member of the Class of 2021. The 49-year-old made two starts in 2023 and has competed in at least one Xfinity race every year since 2001, winning titles in 1998 and 1999 with 13 victories combined across both seasons. He is also a 26-time winner in the NASCAR Cup Series and the sport’s 15-time most popular driver.

Earnhardt’s starts last year were memorable, with one each at Bristol and Homestead-Miami Speedway. The veteran driver especially shined on the Bristol high banks, leading 47 laps and averaging an 8.3 running position — with significant time inside the top five — before a mechanical issue cut his night short. He followed that effort with a fifth-place finish at the 1.5-mile Homestead oval.

Even better news for Dale Jr. fans is that the No. 88 Chevrolet visited Victory Lane just one week ago with Connor Zilisch’s stellar showing in a debut win at Watkins Glen International.

“Had a great car last year. Really, really great car,” Earnhardt said. “And no surprise the 88 has been fast every time they take it to the race track, no matter who’s driving it this year. So I feel pretty good about the car being good again. It’s the same car ran last year. They took it home, tore it apart, put it back together, and nobody’s drove it since then. So hoping it’ll drive as good as it did last year.

“And no pressure in qualifying. Last year we came here, we were one of the eight or so drivers that could miss the race if something were to go wrong in qualifying. So we don’t have to worry about that and can just get in the car and practice and see where we need to be on the race track and try to get through qualifying and be ready for the race.”

His one-off appearances, however, may be ending following Friday’s 300-lap contest, perhaps capping a career that dates back to 1996. He has not appeared to lose a step, nabbing four top-five finishes in his last seven Xfinity starts.

“I’m just going to see how badly I miss it and see,” Earnhardt Jr. said. “I mean I figure I’ve only got a handful of these years left to be relatively somewhat competitive, but I’m gonna be fine.”

Earnhardt has found his way back to the cockpit of a race car more frequently in 2024, however, making multiple starts in the No. 3 Chevrolet for JR Motorsports in Pro Stock Late Model races this year.

“I found what I love, to be honest with you, driving that Late Model stock car,” Earnhardt said. “I mean, the things that I’ll enjoy (Friday) are there as well, and I can go to some grassroots race track and have a good time and enjoy what I love about driving cars just the same. So I’m gonna continue to do that next year as well.”

Earnhardt was 17th on single-lap speeds in Friday’s Xfinity Series practice, but was third-fastest in 20-lap averages of the 16 drivers who made runs of at least 20 consecutive laps.

Posted on by Steve Luvender

NASCAR.com’s 36 for 36 continues at Bristol Motor Speedway.

With 36 races and 36 full-time Charter cars, our players select one car per race, but there’s a simple twist: once they’ve made the pick, they can’t choose that car again for the rest of the 36-race season. Yes, that means every car will be selected exactly once … a survivor pool, by another name.

Follow along weekly as our panel of pickers — Dustin Albino from Jayski, along with Steve Luvender and Cameron Richardson from NASCAR.com — embarks on a season-long journey to think like strategists and prove their picking prowess.

We’ll also feature a fourth “community” 36 for 36 pick each week, as decided by fan vote on the r/NASCAR subreddit. Can the collective vote topple our trio of full-timers?

Current Standings:

  1. Steve Luvender: 711
  2. Dustin Albino: -60
  3. r/NASCAR Community: -67
  4. Cameron Richardson: -114

Race 29 of 36: Bristol

Our pickers had a solid outing last week at Watkins Glen. A 22-point day from Ty Gibbs, picked by points leader Steve Luvender, tightened the race slightly, as second-place Dustin Albino’s selection of Austin Cindric netted 33 points. Cameron Richardson shaved a point off his deficit to the r/NASCAR community in third place; Richardson went with Daniel Suárez (31 points) while the NASCAR subreddit picked Michael McDowell (30 points).

The Bristol Night Race challenges our four pickers next, closing out the Round of 16 in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs. In a race known for tempers, bumpers and helmet tosses, how will they approach this one — with only eight drivers left on the board?

Jayski’s Dustin Albino: No. 54, Ty Gibbs

Dustin’s pick last week: No. 2, Austin Cindric (33 points)

Total season points: 651 (second place)

Dustin: While his NASCAR career is still in its infancy, Ty Gibbs’ best track might be Bristol. Last September, he led 102 laps en route to a fifth-place finish. The No. 54 team backed up that performance in March by sweeping the first two stages and leading a career-high 137 laps. Entering the Round of 16 elimination race on the elimination line, Gibbs needs to be at his best in order to advance. Joe Gibbs Racing has a stellar track record in Thunder Valley with Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch, during his time there, leading the way. Gibbs is due for his first victory — it could come as early as Saturday night.
 

NASCAR.com’s Steve Luvender: No. 24, William Byron

Steve’s pick last week: No. 54, Ty Gibbs (22 points)

Total season points: 711 (first place)

Steve: This one’s a gamble. William Byron has never led a lap at Bristol — the only oval where he’s made multiple starts (10, and 13 if you include dirt races) and never led a lap — but I think it’s a very William Byron thing to identify a weak area and conquer it. Even though Martinsville in April was the site of Byron’s last win, I’m not convinced he’s done making noise this year. I think, despite his underwhelming track record at Bristol, he’s going to close out the Round of 16 with a bang. (As long as that’s not the bang of a fender into the wall.)

NASCAR.com’s Cameron Richardson: No. 42, John Hunter Nemechek

Cameron’s pick last week: No. 99, Daniel Suárez (31 points)

Total season points: 597 (fourth place)

Cameron: Sure, I’m banking on a similar race to the spring at Bristol where Nemechek finished sixth, but the overall numbers for him in all three national series are pretty stellar. He’s completed all but seven laps in 2,700 laps turned combined in his Xfinity and Cup Series starts at the Tennessee short track, with all those finishes coming inside the top 20. While the whole playoff field, minus Joey Logano, needs to tread lightly around the track, Nemechek can come out swinging and go for another top-10 result in his first Bristol Night Race since 2020.
 

r/NASCAR Community: No. 42, John Hunter Nemechek

Total season points: 644 (third place)

The NASCAR subreddit picked John Hunter Nemechek in this week’s community voting thread. Here’s what Redditors had to say: 

u/Extreme-Bite-9123: “We have to use JHN here. He was great in the spring, and we don’t really have anywhere else to use him”

u/michigan_matt: “He finished 6th at Bristol in the spring and was in the top 5 in both stages. His two starts with FRM were top 20s. I think we absolutely have to go with JHN this week.”

u/Dont_hate_the_8: “My gut said Gibbs this week, but stats say JHN. Great run there in the spring.”

u/Sea_Moment_9405: “Nemechek has 3 top 10s this year, and Spring Bristol was one of them. It was his best finish of the year, a 6th place where he scored 13 of his 23 total stage points this season. This is easily his best remaining track so I say we fire him up. There are other options like Ty Gibbs, but I think we could use him at an intermediate or the Roval and still get a good points haul from him.”

Check back next week to see how our pickers fared as the season-long 36 for 36 journey continues.

And, if you’ve got a competitive itch beyond meticulously managing your Fantasy Live lineup each week, feel free to save or print your own 36 for 36 sheet and see if you can beat our pickers and the Reddit community!

Posted on by Zach Sturniolo

BRISTOL, Tenn. — Corey Day’s foray into the stock-car world dropped the sprint-car sensation into Thunder Valley on Thursday.

After making his ARCA Menards Series debut on July 27 at Salem Speedway, the 18-year-old stormed into Bristol Motor Speedway for a doubleheader, competing in the ARCA race before making his NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series debut all in one night.

RELATED: Race results | At-track photos

A seventh-place finish in the 205-lap ARCA race and 18th in the truck race may not leap off the page, but completing a combined 405 laps at the 0.533-mile bullring of Bristol ultimately provided Day with a full day of learning.

“I’m satisfied. To finish all 400 laps in a day for I guess my second real pavement race is something to be proud of I think for sure,” Day said after the truck race. “So yeah, just happy to get all 400 and learn a lot. We worked on our truck there throughout the race, got way better as the race went on. And as a driver, that’s all you really ask for.”

With support from Hendrick Motorsports and HendrickCars.com, Day had all the right people around him throughout the in-depth training day. There to greet Day after he climbed from the No. 82 Pinnacle Racing Group Chevrolet were Hendrick Motorsports president and general manager Jeff Andrews and crew chief Greg Ives, who was a critical part of Jimmie Johnson’s reign over the NASCAR Cup Series with the famed No. 48 team before crew chiefing Dale Earnhardt Jr. from 2015-2017 and Alex Bowman from 2018-2022.

Ives, working as Day’s ARCA crew chief Thursday, was happy to see Day simply get on track and be able to learn how to attack inside a stock car around one of the sport’s most thrilling tracks.

“It’s just conditioning,” Ives told NASCAR.com. “It’s reps, it’s restarts. There’s no restarts in the world like these guys do in the ARCA series. That’s where you’re shifting gears. You’re trying to manage the outside, manage the inside, all that stuff. So I feel like he did good job.”

Corey Day drives in NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series qualifying at Bristol.
Brittney Wilbur | NASCAR Digital Media

That experience prepared him for a full night of Truck Series racing. The No. 81 McAnally-Hilgemann Racing Chevrolet never lost a lap in the 200-lap affair and its driver gained confidence throughout the event,

“As the race went on, I got more and more comfortable with my truck and what it was doing center of the corner, entering the corner and exiting the corner,” Day said. “And once you figure that out, you know the comfortable factor is up there. So, yeah, felt good there at the end, and in that run in the middle of the race. Just tough guys even back there in mid-pack.”

The No. 81 truck also came home clean after what typically becomes a full-contact contest around the high banks of Bristol.

“Our nose stayed pretty clean so I got to thank my spotter Tyler (Monn) for that,” Day said. “Just thanks to the whole Bill McAnally Racing team for giving me a truck to come do this. This is a dream come true to be able to come run a truck race at Bristol. You always see these on YouTube or highlights of them because usually the truck race is one of the better races of the week here. So to be able to come do that is a dream come true for sure.”

Day will have three additional starts in with McAnally-Hilgemann Racing to build his stock-car resume, Sept. 27 at Kansas Speedway, Oct. 26 at Homestead-Miami Speedway and Nov. 1 at Martinsville Speedway.

Posted on by Neil Paine

Joe Gibbs Racing driver Denny Hamlin is used to facing twists and turns along what was once a promising championship path.

In 2010, he blew a 33-point lead over four-time defending champ Jimmie Johnson going into the final two races of the season. In 2014, he was passed by Kevin Harvick for the lead with eight laps to go in the first championship race of the elimination era. In 2019, he again led the title race with around 100 laps to go, but roughly 50 laps later his car overheated and he ended up finishing a distant 10th. In both 2020 and 2021, he made the Championship 4, only to be beaten by the faster cars of Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson. And, of course, in 2022 he missed the final four because of Ross Chastain’s “Hail Melon” move.

Now, in 2024, he finds himself yet again on the razor’s edge — this time to even escape the first round of the Cup Series playoffs. According to my forecast model, which simulates the rest of the playoffs 10,000 times, Hamlin has just a 54 percent chance of advancing into the Round of 12 despite probably being a top-five driver in the sport this year. So this could be yet another disappointment for NASCAR’s greatest to never win a title — but there is also hope for Denny yet.

Before we get into that, let’s set the stage with the model’s odds going into the final race of the Round of 16 at Bristol.

After last Sunday’s overtime race at Watkins Glen, eight drivers are in a good spot to advance into the next round, with greater than 97 percent odds: Joey Logano (who won in Atlanta), Christopher Bell, Austin Cindric, Alex Bowman, Daniel Suárez, Chase Elliott, Tyler Reddick and Ryan Blaney. Blaney’s high odds come in spite of a near-immediate wreck to begin the race Sunday. He still has a 29-point cushion in the playoff standings, plus a 60 percent chance of finishing ahead of at least four of the eight drivers below him in the standings at Bristol.

Two more drivers have at least a 92 percent chance to move on — Kyle Larson and William Byron — despite their own troubles early in the playoffs. (Larson finished 37th at Atlanta, while Byron was 34th at The Glen after nearly launching over the fence). Both are at least 25 points on the good side of the cutline right now and should be able to move forward as long as they avoid catastrophic finishes at Bristol.

This means we have at least a pretty decent idea about who 10 of the 12 advancing drivers will be after the transfer race Saturday night. We also have a decent sense that Harrison Burton probably won’t advance — the model gives him less than a 5 percent chance, as he needs just his second podium finish of the season to even have a 50-50 shot at advancement.

That leaves five drivers between 25 and 54 percent odds to advance, fighting over what is likely just two open spots.

Among those, the best odds belong to Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Hamlin and Ty Gibbs at 54 percent apiece, followed by Chase Briscoe (52 percent after potentially saving his season with a sixth-place finish Sunday), Brad Keselowski (32 percent) and another JGR driver, Martin Truex Jr. (25 percent in his swan song as a Cup Series regular).

Needless to say, the fight between that quintet under the lights at Bristol is going to be compelling (teammates or not). But what makes Hamlin the most intriguing driver in that crucible is not just his status as NASCAR’s forever-bridesmaid. It’s that his odds of winning the championship, conditional on advancing, remain as strong as just about anyone’s.

It’s just that whole advancing part that still weighs heavily on his overall chances. But the good news for Hamlin is that Bristol is just about the best place for him to stage his last stand.

He has four wins at the track in his career, including each of the past two races held there, and he has the third-best average finish at Bristol of any active driver with at least two career races there. Furthermore, Denny has been the best short-track driver in the Cup Series overall this season, with an Adjusted Points+ Index of 252 — i.e., 152 percent better than average — beating out Elliott (223), Larson (207) and Byron (202) by a wide margin.

This is why Hamlin shows up as by far the best projected driver at Bristol in my track-scouting ratings ahead of Saturday night’s race. He is set up as well as he possibly could be to deliver a strong performance. And he will need to do just that.

Here’s a breakdown of Hamlin’s odds to advance, conditional on different types of finishes at Bristol:

It’s not exactly a “must-win” for Hamlin (though a win would obviously clinch his spot in the next round). But it is something of a must-top-10. In simulations where Hamlin finishes that high, he makes the second round 93.7 percent of the time. In all other simulations, he advances just 16.2 percent of the time.

In other words, all of the potential of this season — all of the expectations that this would finally be The Year for Hamlin to shed his “Best To Never Win A Championship” label — come down to needing a high finish in a single race at the Last Great Colosseum. If he does that, he’s back among the favorites; if not, it’s another case of wait ’til next year.

Neil Paine is a freelance writer whose work also appears at ESPN.com, The Philadelphia Inquirer, Sherwood News and Substack. He is the former Sports Editor at FiveThirtyEight, and was also a consultant for the NBA’s Atlanta Hawks.

Posted on by Zack Albert

BRISTOL, Tenn. — AM Racing announced Friday that Harrison Burton will join the organization next season, driving its flagship Ford in the NASCAR Xfinity Series.

Burton will return to the Xfinity circuit after three seasons in the NASCAR Cup Series with Wood Brothers Racing. That stint yielded his first premier series victory last month at Daytona International Speedway and the 23-year-old driver’s first playoff berth.

Burton said AM Racing contacted him shortly after he landed on the free-agent market this summer.

RELATED: Key players in Silly Season | Bristol weekend schedule

“As soon as really my announcement came out that I wouldn’t return to the Wood Brothers, they expressed interest, and then have kind of shown me the will and want to improve and get better and do things the right way,” Burton said Friday afternoon at Bristol Motor Speedway. “And as time went along, I felt like that was the best opportunity for me to help them build their program, and in doing that, help rebuild myself and my confidence and try and win races in the Xfinity Series.”

AM Racing entered its second season of Xfinity Series competition with Hailie Deegan behind the wheel of the No. 15 entry on a multiyear deal, but the driver and team parted ways in early July. Since then, the organization has rotated a host of fill-in drivers through the seat – including Cup Series regulars Joey Logano and Josh Berry.

The team indicated that it has renewed two partnerships for 2025 — its technical alliance with the rebranded Haas Factory Team and its engine supplier agreement with Roush Yates Engines.

Burton accumulated four wins during his previous Xfinity Series tenure (2019-2021), reaching the postseason in both of his full-time seasons with Joe Gibbs Racing. His arrival with the famed Wood Brothers No. 21 team brought him to the Cup Series in 2022, shifting his manufacturer alliances from Toyota to Ford.

Burton finished 27th and 31st in the standings in his first two Cup Series seasons, and the Wood Brothers announced in July that Berry would replace him in 2025. Burton gave the organization a proper send-off at Daytona with its 100th premier-series victory, clinching his first appearance in the Cup Series Playoffs.

After his breakthrough win, Burton described his status for next season as “fluid,” not knowing which series he might call home in 2025. He said he aspires to return to the Cup Series but demurred at the notion that the move back to the Xfinity circuit was a demotion.

MORE: Cup Series standings | Cup Series schedule

“I mean, it’s a privilege to drive a race car in NASCAR, in any of the top three series,” Burton said. “So obviously, it’s not what I wanted to happen. I didn’t want to lose my job, right? But what I did do is learned a lot from this experience. I feel like I’m a better race car driver than when I was in Xfinity. and AM Racing has confidence in me that I can help them turn their program around and get it where it needs to be as well. They have shared and have shown the want to do that, the want to get better, and are willing to put the work in to do that, and I think with both of us with that same mindset, I don’t see why there’s any reason we can’t.”

Burton is currently 16th in the Cup Series Playoffs standings, 20 points below the provisional elimination line. He’ll aim to keep his postseason eligibility intact in Saturday’s Bass Pro Shops Night Race (7 ET, USA, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App), the Round of 16 finale at Bristol Motor Speedway.

Posted on by Seth Sharp

Throughout the 2024 NASCAR season, Ken Martin, director of historical content for the sanctioning body, will offer his suggestions on which historical races fans should watch from the NASCAR Classics library in preparation for each upcoming race weekend.

Martin has worked exclusively for NASCAR since 2008 but has been involved with the sport since 1982, overseeing various projects. He has worked in the broadcast booth for hundreds of races, assisting the broadcast team with different tasks. This includes calculating the “points as they run” for the historic 1992 finale, the Hooters 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway.

The following suggestions are Ken’s picks to watch before this Saturday’s Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway (7 p.m. ET, USA, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App).

A general view of racing at Bristol.
NASCAR Research & Archives Center | Getty Images

1985 Busch 500:

The 1985 night race at Bristol was the first time that ESPN presented the race live. The track featured temporary lighting to help illuminate the track and give drivers the best vision possible.

Bill Elliott had taken the Cup Series by storm, winning the Daytona 500 and nine of the first 18 races on the schedule. The race at Bristol was the final contest before Elliott had an opportunity to win a $1,000,000 bonus from the RJ Reynolds company if he could win at Darlington in the Southern 500.

Despite the hype surrounding Elliott (who had won the previous race at Michigan International Speedway), all eyes were on Richard Petty.

Petty, who left his family-owned team for the 1984 and 1985 seasons, announced he would return for the 1986 season. His final season with his team in 1983 saw Petty finish fourth in points.

In his first season driving for Mike Curb, Petty finished 10th in points, and he arrived at Bristol a disappointing 19th.

The race turned out to be another typical Bristol affair as the caution flag waved 14 times for 87 total laps. This followed a delay for rain before the event, which led to the race starting under yellow flag conditions to help assist in drying the track.

Dale Earnhardt dominated the race, leading 343 of the race’s 500 total laps. Tim Richmond and Darrell Waltrip also had strong cars, but Waltrip’s hopes at another Bristol victory were dashed when he was sent to the rear of the field for pitting too early.

Waltrip won at the track nine times, including seven in a row between 1981 and 1984.

Earnhardt took the lead from Richmond with just under 20 laps remaining and held off a handful of battles from Richmond to take the checkered flag. Richmond finished second, followed by Neil Bonnett, Waltrip and Elliott.

Petty came home with an eighth-place finish, which jump-started a strong finish to the season for the driver. He eventually finished the season 14th in points.

A general view of racing at Bristol.
NASCAR Research & Archives Center | Getty Images

1995 Goody’s 500:

The anticipation for the start of the annual night race at Bristol Motor Speedway had to be put on hold for just under two hours as rain kept the covers over the NASCAR Cup Series cars past the scheduled start time.

The crowd was amped up as track dryers worked to get the surface ready for racing as they could be seen doing the wave with team members waiting on the pit wall.

When the green flag did finally drop, it didn’t take long for the excitement to start. Contact between Dale Earnhardt and Rusty Wallace sent Wallace around and into the wall right under the start/finish line. Earnhardt was black-flagged by NASCAR and sent to the end of the longest line for his contact with Wallace.

The move didn’t immediately take Wallace out of contention, but he was later caught up in another incident involving Bill Elliott and Jeff Burton. Wallace had five victories at the track (including being the defending winner of the night race) but ended up with a 21st-place finish, 46 laps behind the race winner.

Earnhardt was on a mission to make his way back up through the field, and nothing stopped him from doing whatever it took to have the checkered flag in his sights. He took advantage of a handful of lapped cars to gain on Terry Labonte, the race leader, on the final lap before catching him as the duo neared the line. Earnhardt made contact with Labonte, sending Labonte around and into the wall while taking the checkered flag as the winner.

Labonte’s car limped into Victory Lane while smoke spewed from his No. 5 Chevrolet.

Earnhardt didn’t face much backlash from Labonte but did from Wallace, who interrupted one of Earnhardt’s post-race interviews by tossing a water bottle in Earnhardt’s direction before the two drivers had to be separated.

Wallace vowed revenge in the next race while saying he wouldn’t forget this move. He also mentioned how he wouldn’t forget how the two drivers made contact at Talladega Superspeedway in 1993.

The first seven finishers of the event were all named as one of NASCAR’s 75 Greatest Drivers in 2023: Labonte, Earnhardt, Dale Jarrett, Darrell Waltrip, Mark Martin, Jeff Gordon and Sterling Marlin.

Dale Earnhardt sits in his car.
Craig Jones | Allsport

1999 Goody’s Headache Powder 500:

Sometimes, things just make sense, and the annual Bristol Night Race being named the Goody’s Headache Powder 500 turned out to be one of them, especially for Terry Labonte.

Rookie driver Tony Stewart put his Joe Gibbs Racing Pontiac on the pole for the race and looked to be the most dominant car of the day, leading 225 consecutive laps early on, through the race’s halfway point.

Dale Earnhardt and Labonte then emerged as the front-runners as the two drivers with a history at the track traded the lead back and forth for the final 249 laps of the day. No other driver paced the front of the field besides the two after taking the lead from Stewart.

It looked like it would come down to another classic battle for the win at the track between the two, but Darrell Waltrip turned Labonte with 10 laps remaining. This brought out the caution and allowed Labonte to pit for fresh tires.

The incident set up the restart on Lap 496, with Earnhardt leading Stewart, Jeff Gordon and Mark Martin. Labonte sat fifth right behind Martin, but the question of the moment was if he had enough time to catch Earnhardt with the fresh tires.

It took one lap for Labonte to pass Martin and take third over Gordon on the same lap. Labonte then took second from Stewart before setting his sights on Earnhardt.

The two drivers made contact for the lead as the white flag waved. Labonte sailed into the first turn as the leader before Earnhardt used his bumper to move Labonte and send him around.

His spinning car collected Stewart and Ricky Rudd, while Earnhardt held off a hard-charging Jimmy Spencer to grab the victory.

Earnhardt said in his post-race interview that he didn’t want to turn him around but meant to rattle his cage.

Labonte was upset with Earnhardt, denying that Earnhardt didn’t do it on purpose, saying that nothing he ever does is ever on purpose.

The last-lap crash shook up the finishing order. Spencer came home second, while Rudd recovered from his damage to take third. Gordon was fourth, and Stewart, who was also involved in the incident, was fifth.

Labonte had to settle for an eighth-place finish.

Posted on by Zach Sturniolo

BRISTOL, Tenn. — Rajah Caruth arguably ran his best race of the season since winning in March. Yet the Spire Motorsports driver could only focus on how close he was to victory Thursday night at Bristol Motor Speedway.

Caruth finished third at the 0.533-mile short track in the second race of the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Playoffs, 1.118 seconds shy of Layne Riggs for the win and a mere 0.022 seconds behind Corey Heim at the checkered flag for the runner-up spot.

RELATED: Race results | At-track photos

The much-needed effort marked his first top-five finish since Nashville Superspeedway in June, his first career stage victory, and his first laps led (nine) since North Wilkesboro Speedway in May. Most importantly, he and the No. 71 Spire team leave Bristol 35 points above the elimination line in the Round of 10, entering the Sept. 27 elimination race at Kansas Speedway (8:30 p.m. ET, FS1, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) in excellent position to advance as one of eight Round of 8 drivers.

None of that was much solace to the 22-year-old driver, who simply wished to run the final laps all over again. With two restarts in the final 30 laps, Caruth opted to run the bottom line more often than the top in both runs where others made speed.

“I had a chance to win, and I just — I don’t feel like I executed that well,” Caruth said. “I should have just ran the top like I know I should. I’m just — oh, there’s the end there.”

He paused to rewatch the final set of corners, diving from top to bottom behind Heim to get to Heim’s left-side door in a drag race to the stripe. While Riggs won, Heim was second, Caruth third and Christian Eckes fourth.

“I wasn’t gonna fence him (Heim), but we were close,” Caruth continued. “But yeah, just fun racing with Corey and Christian. They’re the perennial contenders, so to be in the mix of those guys all night was really good. Just replaying what I could have done different those last two or three restarts.”

Once the sting of Thursday’s loss fades, perhaps Caruth will be able to reflect upon his performance more fondly. In the four races between his Nashville and Bristol top fives, the No. 71 Chevrolet finished 10th (Pocono), eighth (Indianapolis Raceway Park), 17th (Richmond) and 18th (Milwaukee). To peak again in the playoffs shows Caruth and Co. might be on the upswing at the right time heading to Kansas.

Asked when that sting might dissipate, Caruth was frank as he watched Riggs celebrate in Victory Lane: “I don’t know.”

“Just wanted to win. I mean, that’s it,” he said. “I don’t know how else to really describe it. Just wish that was us. But really happy for Layne. You know, he deserves it. He puts in the work and happy to see him succeed.”

Officially clinching their spots in the Round of 8 Thursday night were Eckes, Heim and Nick Sanchez, who finished fifth at Bristol. Caruth heads to Kansas fifth in the standings, 23 points behind Ty Majeski and ahead of Tyler Ankrum (plus-25), Taylor Gray (plus-23) and Grant Enfinger (plus-seven). Daniel Dye (minus-seven) and defending champion Ben Rhodes (minus-12) head to the Midwest beneath the elimination line.