SONOMA, Calif. — Nine different winners through 15 races so far in the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season appear to be on par with trends from previous seasons.

But this year has thrown quite a curveball as to who those winners are and who is still awaiting their home-run trot to Victory Lane.

Entering Sunday’s event at Sonoma Raceway (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), there are already four new winners in 2024 that didn’t find pay dirt last season, the most shocking of those being Austin Cindric, who capitalized on his teammate Ryan Blaney’s fuel pressure sputtering on the final lap at World Wide Technology Raceway and claimed his second career victory at the Cup level.

Blaney, who now has three consecutive finishes of 20th or worse following last weekend’s misfortunes, has moved on from the heartbreak but is paying attention to his points situation.

RELATED: Cup standings | Sonoma schedule

“Having three pretty rough points finishes in a row from wrecking at Darlington and wrecking at Charlotte, got good stage points last week but finished terrible,” Blaney said. “We should be like plus-100 to the good rather than where we’re at, so I think in our spot, you have to be mindful of it just because you can’t just keep you can’t give up some gobs of points. Some of it you can’t control, but yeah, we’re definitely thinking about that.”

Joey Logano, Blaney’s Team Penske teammate, currently sits on the wrong side of the playoff bubble, ranking 18th and chasing 14 points to Chris Buescher, who provisionally holds the final playoff spot.

A two-time champion at the Cup level, Logano has had seasons where he’s rallied in the latter stages of a season but hasn’t faced a situation like this since missing the playoffs in 2017.

“That’s not gonna be easy, for sure,” Logano said. “We still got some time before that final race, but getting a win would be much easier. But if we can’t do that, we just got to maximize points every weekend, which, last week, was pretty decent for that. So we just got to keep doing that.”

Scoring his first top five since Richmond last weekend at Gateway may just have been what the doctor ordered for the No. 22 stable as Logano won his third Busch Light Pole Award of 2024 Saturday at Sonoma, which should help him continue to maximize points with track position coming at a premium at road courses.

Joey Logano signs the Busch Light Pole Award banner at Sonoma Raceway.
Meg Oliphant | Getty Images

With Cindric’s victory, Logano’s margin of error continues to narrow as the regular-season finale at Darlington Raceway rapidly approaches, but the lead veteran at the Penske organization has no ill feelings, even with his climb back into the top 16 getting more difficult.

“I don’t know if I’d call it bittersweet. I mean, it’s good to see a Penske car up front,” Logano said. “Seeing Blaney up there leading that probably hurt the most of you are him. Then Austin capitalizing, I’m glad one of our cars were able to capitalize on that. Those wins are so important for the whole team. I don’t think I’d be selfish about it and say that it was hurting my chances of getting in. I mean, the bottom line is we need to go out there and do it, too.”

Among a group of winless drivers that includes the likes of Martin Truex Jr., Ross Chastain and Kyle Busch, Chase Briscoe is probably the most overlooked of those that could point their way into the postseason.

As it stands, Briscoe sits just 10 points below Buescher for that final spot but admitted that Cindric’s victory creates an even bigger obstacle for the Stewart-Haas Racing driver to crack the playoff field.

“Last week definitely was a kick in the gut for us,” Briscoe said. “Happy for Austin obviously, being a really good friend of mine. But for us in our situation, it definitely didn’t help, so yeah, we just have to be on it every week. For us to even be in the position that we’re in right now with how bad we’ve truthfully ran the last four, five weeks is encouraging, to be ahead of two Cup champions and be right there in the mix with guys that have been battling for the wins.

“This is really the make-or-break-it point. These next five, six weeks are going to determine kind of where we end up in the playoffs.”

Eleven races left in the regular season still offer plenty of time for new winners in 2024 and that could occur in Sunday’s race with a handful of Cup veterans being better at the discipline than their competitors.

One driver who’s continued to improve on his road-course prowess is Bubba Wallace. Sitting 15th on the playoff grid and 13 points to the good, Sonoma could play a key role in setting the tone for the rest of Wallace’s regular-season run.

But a qualifying run of 18th for the No. 23 Toyota team left the 30-year-old driver drenched in sweat and aggravated with himself knowing that Sunday could set him back in his quest to return to the postseason if he can’t work his way through the field.

MORE: Sonoma Cup lineup

“If you just do your job, you don’t have to worry about anybody else,” Wallace said. “So that’s all we’re focused on. Putting in a lot of effort to get better at road-course racing, and I’m definitely better. But still, I have higher expectations for myself and for our team. That’s where the frustration kicks in.”

Toyota/Save Mart 350

(⏰ Sunday, 3:30 p.m. ET | FOX | PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio)

Weekend schedule | TV schedule | Weather tracker | NASCAR 101

Location: Sonoma, California
Track length: 1.99 miles
Race purse: $8,426,274
Race distance: 110 laps | 218.9 miles
Stages: 25 | 55 | 110

Starting lineup: Joey Logano will lead the field to green flag
Pit stall assignments:
See where drivers will pit
Defending winner:
Martin Truex Jr., June 2023

Key things to watch

Saturday sessions

Joey Logano capitalized on Team Penske’s recent momentum, storming to the Busch Light Pole Award at 97.771 mph, beating 23XI Racing’s Tyler Reddick for the top spot in qualifying by just 0.083 seconds. Logano’s teammate Ryan Blaney will start third ahead of the Hendrick Motorsports trio of Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson and William Byron. Daniel Suárez, the 2022 Sonoma winner, will start seventh, while Alex Bowman, Ross Chastain and Ty Gibbs complete the top 10 on the grid. | Qualifying recap

The Cup Series also had a full 50-minute practice session on Friday afternoon as teams tackled the new pavement. Ryan Blaney was fastest on single-lap speed at 97.866 mph over Ty Gibbs, Supercars points leader Will Brown and Hendrick Motorsports teammates Alex Bowman and Chase Elliott. | Practice recap

Big story line

Will Brown, Cam Waters latest Supercars stars to test talents in NASCAR

Nearly a year removed from New Zealander Shane van Gisbergen’s upset win in his Cup debut on the streets of Chicago, two of his former counterparts from the Australian Repco Supercars Championship series are joining the NASCAR Cup Series fray this weekend at Sonoma.

Will Brown, a native of Toowoomba, Australia, is making his debut in the No. 33 Chevrolet for Richard Childress Racing this weekend, while Mildura native Cam Waters makes his in the No. 60 RFK Racing Ford in a Stage 60 entry.

Brown is the current Supercars points leader Down Under, with Waters fourth in the championship standings. But stateside, the duo are simply rookies looking to see if their skills can transfer to NASCAR’s Next Gen car the way SVG’s did a season ago.

“Watching what SVG did last year, a lot of Aussies have paid a lot of attention to NASCAR now, and I’m pretty excited to come over and have a go,” Brown said Friday at Sonoma. “I was lucky enough to put a deal together with Richard (Childress). We were able to have him out to Australia at the end of last year, and yeah, made that connection. So, for myself, it was cool to put a deal together last minute, and hopefully, we’ll have a good weekend.”

Waters, a two-time Supercars title runner-up and three-time Bathurst 1000 podium finisher, has gotten his feet wet in the stock-car universe already, making two oval starts in the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series this season at Martinsville Speedway and Kansas Speedway. His Cup experience got off to a rocky start in Friday’s 50-minute practice session, however, with a wild spin into the Turn 1 grass, narrowly avoiding the surrounding concrete and tire barriers.

WATCH: Waters spins during Friday practice

Brown, on the other hand, had quite an impressive outing in the No. 33 Chevrolet, posting the third-fastest single lap behind only Ryan Blaney and Ty Gibbs. Before practice, he acknowledged the hours of simulation time he was able to utilize at General Motors’ Charlotte Technical Center to prepare. That effort showed on the speed chart.

Oh, and there’s another secret weapon in his back pocket — err, ear: SVG will be spotting for Brown.

“The simulators worked great for me at the GM Tech Center,” Brown told FOX Sports post-practice. “But the guys back home in Australia race hard, and it’s fairly similar cars, so felt pretty good coming into the weekend. I’ve watched a lot of what SVG’s doing, but I’ve worked with him a lot. So it’s great to have him as a spotter to be working with him, but there’s a long way to go yet. It was a good start. I’ve still got a lot of learning to do in the car and how to race it, but we’ll see where we end up (Sunday).”

TICKETS: Don’t miss the July 7 Chicago Street Race

History tells us…

Martin Truex Jr. will be the driver to beat Sunday. Truex has won three of the last five races at Sonoma and had a fourth back in 2013 when he was racing with Michael Waltrip Racing.

The New Jersey native has made himself at home in wine country and enters as the defending winner of the Toyota/Save Mart 350. The pavement may be new, but the layout is still the same. And no one has managed it better lately than the 2017 NASCAR Cup Series champion.

He may not be the betting favorite to win, but watch out for…

Kyle Busch. It’s now been over a year since Busch’s last trip to Victory Lane, but don’t rule out the No. 8 Chevrolet this weekend. Entering at 28-1 odds on Draft Kings, Busch has finished seventh or better in seven of the last eight races at Sonoma with six straight top 10s in that span. And oh, by the way, the two-time Napa Valley winner was a runner-up in this event one year ago. | Sonoma odds

Speed reads

Our biggest pieces of the week — get covered for race day from all angles. 

• Kyle Larson granted waiver to compete in playoffs: 2021 Cup champion eligible despite missing Charlotte | Read article
• Behind the waiver decision:
NASCAR official explains why waiver was granted | Read article
• Turn 11 has new look this weekend:
Inside barrier creates ‘pretty significant shift to the race track’ | Read article
• Turning Point:
Hill to climb for winless Cup drivers on playoff bubble | Read article
• Cindric reflects after Gateway win: Third-year Team Penske driver: “It’s a pretty big moment for us” | Read article
• Todd Gilliland signs multiyear deal with FRM: Front Row makes first signing of its 2025 lineup | Read article
• Racing Insights: Elliott projected to reclaim road-course crown at Sonoma; see full field projections | Read article
• NASCAR Classics: Vintage Sonoma races to relive before Sunday’s edition | Read article
• Field of 16:
How the projected playoff picture was shaken before Sonoma | Read article
• 36 for 36: Check this week’s survivor pool picks | Read article
• Fantasy Fastlane:
Why the road-course ringers should be in your race day lineup | Photo gallery
• Fantasy Update:
Blistering speeds lead to lineup overhaul at Sonoma | Read article
• Paint Scheme Preview: Colors set to dazzle in Napa Valley | Pick your favorite

Fast facts

Race-relevant statistics, brought to you by the experts at Racing Insights.

• The last five Sonoma winners started inside the top eight.
• The final lead change came with 14 or more laps to go in the last seven Sonoma races.
• The Sonoma race has only gone into overtime once in the last 10 years. There have been four overtime finishes in track history.

SONOMA, Calif. — Team Penske’s Joey Logano claimed his third pole position of the 2024 season Saturday afternoon at Sonoma Raceway — turning a fast lap of 97.771 mph in the No. 22 Ford, bettering the previous record by more than a second on the newly paved 1.99-mile road course in Northern California.

The two-time NASCAR Cup Series champion will start Sunday’s Toyota/Save Mart 350 (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) alongside 23XI Racing’s Tyler Reddick, who was a slight 0.083 seconds behind Logano.

“I got a little loose up in Turn 2 and probably left a little bit out there, but it’s hard to hit a perfect lap every corner,” said Logano, a 31-time pole winner, who also won pole position at Sonoma in 2011.

“If you can average it all out to be pretty good, it works out. It was great to see the Autotrader Mustang having some speed here in Sonoma. It didn’t seem too bad in race trim either, so hopefully, we turn this into a victory tomorrow.”

MORE: Sunday’s starting lineup | At-track photos: Sonoma

Logano’s only career road-course win came in 2015 at Watkins Glen International. His best finish at Sonoma is third, something he has done twice, including last year.

Logano’s teammate Ryan Blaney, the reigning series champion, will roll off third — both drivers looking for their first trophy of the season. Hendrick Motorsports teammates Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson round out the top five.

All four Hendrick cars advanced to the final round of qualifying, including three-race winner William Byron in sixth and Alex Bowman in eighth. Trackhouse Racing teammates Daniel Suárez and Ross Chastain will start seventh and ninth, with Joe Gibbs Racing’s Ty Gibbs rounding out the top 10.

Cup Series championship leader, JGR’s Denny Hamlin, will roll off 25th, and his teammate, four-time and defending Sonoma race winner Martin Truex Jr., will begin 21st on the starting grid.

Two Australian Supercars drivers are making their debut this weekend. Will Brown, who was third-fastest in practice, will roll off 24th in the No. 33 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet. Cam Waters will start 31st in the No. 60 RFK Racing Ford.

“This race is gonna be a lot different than what it was in the past here,” Logano said. “You think about what it used to be here with a lot of tire wear. Now, the tires seem to last fairly long, so that can adjust the strategy quite a bit from what it used to be here. There are a lot of different options for the crew chiefs to try to make up their mind on how to play out the race, and time will tell.”

SONOMA, Calif. — A noticeable change will be on display at Sonoma Raceway this weekend as the Turn 11 barrier will be the white walls that surround the home stretch of the 1.99-mile road course instead of the tire barrier that previously stood in its place.

With fresh asphalt on the track surface and a new visual in the final corner, Sonoma should offer a different challenge this year than prior years.

Veteran Brad Keselowski, who’s competing in his 14th Sonoma Cup race, said the new barrier is “definitely not what we expected.”

RELATED: Sonoma schedule | Cup standings

“It’s a pretty significant shift to the race track,” Keselowski said. “We’ll see how it races.”

According to a Sonoma Raceway track representative, the change in Turn 11 was made to “protect the integrity of the racing line.”

“We kind of looked back through the past few years, and a lot of the cars were, almost every lap, they’re touching those tire barricades. It was moving by up to 20 feet during the course of a race,” they said. “So went to NASCAR, their competition folks and then we also met with the drivers competition committee both during the Coke 600 weekend, and they were good with it.”

Turn 11 is the narrowest and slowest on the course. As cars come barreling downhill through the esses on the backstretch, they enter a short straightaway just past Turn 10 that forces heavy braking into the corner.

In prior years, pushing the wall back opened up an even lower lane, and drivers found areas of extra grip in the painted section.

With the retaining wall now installed around the turn, drivers said it will be slightly trickier with fewer visuals.

“It’s a little bit blind, but you’re kind of getting used to it and understanding the radius of how far I got to turn the wheel to make the corner without hitting it,” Joe Gibbs Racing driver Denny Hamlin said. “So I think there will definitely be a few that cut it too tight and risk knocking a toe link out, but hopefully it’s not us.”

Hamlin’s JGR teammate Christopher Bell was an outlier in the Turn 11 discourse, explaining that his racing line won’t bring about much change for his approach in the corner.

“I didn’t really notice much difference,” Bell said. ” I guess it’s probably going to make it a little bit more congested. If there’s a crash, you’re not going to have anywhere to go. But other than that, normal racing conditions, I didn’t notice a difference.

“It definitely makes it harder to see, but running in your normal line, I mean, you’re just trying to keep it tucked tight there.”

The prior tire barriers allowed drivers to avoid cars gone astray in the narrow corner, but with the new wall wrapping the whole corner, the margin for error decreases even further for the technical turn.

“A lot different hitting the wall versus hitting a tire, you can imagine,” Keselowski said. “The risk versus reward proposition changes, and that changes the way you race.”

NASCAR.com’s 36 for 36 continues at Sonoma Raceway.

With 36 races and 36 full-time Charter cars, our players select one car per race, but there’s a simple twist: Once they’ve made the pick, they can’t choose that car again for the rest of the 36-race season. Yes, that means every car will be selected exactly once … a survivor pool, by another name.

Follow along weekly as our panel of pickers — Dustin Albino from Jayski, along with Steve Luvender and Cameron Richardson from NASCAR.com — embarks on a season-long journey to think like strategists and prove their picking prowess.

We’ll also feature a fourth “community” 36 for 36 pick each week, as decided by fan vote on the r/NASCAR subreddit. Can the collective vote topple our trio of full-timers?

Current Standings:

  1.  Steve Luvender: 378
  2. Dustin Albino: -43
  3. r/NASCAR Community: -59
  4. Cameron Richardson: -93

Race 16 of 36: Sonoma

Three of our four pickers selected defending race winner Kyle Busch last week at Gateway … and shared in his disappointment after a last-lap crash in Stage 2 ended the No. 8’s day early with just two points to show for it. The only non-Busch pick was Steve Luvender, who selected Justin Haley. The No. 51 picked up a ninth-place finish and 28 points.

The second road course of the season will challenge our pickers next. Sonoma Raceway will introduce new unknowns after an offseason repave and expected faster lap times. Will our picking panel ride with familiar left-and-right-turn aces, or try something a little different?

Jayski’s Dustin Albino: No. 34, Michael McDowell

 

Dustin’s pick last week: No. 8, Kyle Busch (2 points)
Total season points: 335 (second place)

Dustin: Years ago, McDowell became increasingly excited when the Next Gen car was announced for the Cup Series. In a way, it has galvanized his career. He has become a top-tier threat on road courses, specifically at Sonoma. In the two races in wine country in the Next Gen car, he has an average finish of fifth and has scored the fourth-most amount of points in each Sonoma race. If he backs those two performances up, it will trend my picks in the right direction. It’s been a brutal two weeks for yours truly.

NASCAR.com’s Steve Luvender: No. 22, Joey Logano


Steve’s pick last week: No. 51, Justin Haley (28 points)
Total season points: 378 (first place)

Steve: First, shoutout to Justin Haley and the No. 51 team for earning me 28 points after a top-10 run at Gateway while my competitors had a rough week. The points leader thanks you. As for Sonoma, it’s tempting to pick a road-course specialist, considering only five road courses appear on the schedule, and we’ve got 36 cars to use. However, this is a game of points, and no driver has earned more points at Sonoma over the last three years than Joey Logano. It’s obvious the No. 22 bunch knows how, in particular, to play the stage-point game, racking up 37 of them here since 2021 and scoring no fewer than 39 total points in a single race during that time. Of course, there’s no sure thing in NASCAR, but even if Logano doesn’t pick up his second-career road-course win, I’m confident he’ll grab some points this weekend.

NASCAR.com’s Cameron Richardson: No. 34, Michael McDowell

 

Cameron’s pick last week: No. 8, Kyle Busch (2 points)
Total season points: 285 (fourth place)

Cameron: It’s been trying times over the last three weeks, but I’m confident (I think?) that McDowell will turn this lull around in the Bay Area, With third and seventh-place finishes at the road course, the No. 34 driver is sure to be in the mix to be the 10th different winner of 2024. McDowell also scored three top 10s on road courses last season, highlighted by his dominant victory around the Brickyard. Win or not, a big points day should be on the cards for the Arizona native.

r/NASCAR Community: No. 99, Daniel Suárez

r/NASCAR’s pick last week: No. 8, Kyle Busch (2 points)

Total season points: 319 (third place)

Redditors have spoken: it’s Daniel Suárez this week. The 2022 Sonoma winner was voted the top pick by the r/NASCAR community. 

What the community said about the No. 99 in this week’s voting thread

u/Dont_hate_the_8: “Remember guys, this isn’t about picking the best driver at each track. Its about picking each driver at their best track.

I think this is it for Suarez. He got a win here in 2022, Trackhouse has been solid overall on RCs with Next gen, and I can’t think of any other track that Suarez is consistently good at. Let’s use him here.”

u/Extreme-Bite-9123: “This is Suarez’s best track, we gotta use him here. He’s only win other than Atlanta came here, and this is the best time to use him. We can save truex for anywhere, he works anywhere, and unless a gateway happens he can frontrun anywhere” 

Check back next week to see how our pickers fared as the season-long 36 for 36 journey continues.

And, if you’ve got a competitive itch beyond meticulously managing your Fantasy Live lineup each week, feel free to save or print your own 36 for 36 sheet and see if you can beat our pickers and the Reddit community!

Team Penske’s Ryan Blaney topped the leaderboard in Friday’s 50-minute practice session at Sonoma Raceway with a speed of 97.866 mph.

The No. 12 Ford was ahead of Joe Gibbs Racing’s Ty Gibbs (97.829 mph) and Australian Supercars star Will Brown (97.617 mph), who’s making his NASCAR Cup Series debut with Richard Childress Racing.

Alex Bowman (97.576 mph) and Chase Elliott (97.477 mph) rounded out the top five.

RELATED: Practice results | Weekend schedule

Michael McDowell (97.354 mph), Noah Gragson (97.333 mph), Zane Smith (97.307 mph), Ross Chastain (97.297 mph) and Martin Truex Jr. (97.217 mph) completed the top 10.

All 38 drivers logged laps around the 1.99-mile California road course for the first time since the track was repaved over the offseason. The speeds were noticeably higher as each driver started building a notebook ahead of Sunday’s 110-lap road race.

Comparing last year’s top practice speed on the old pavement to Blaney’s 97.866 mph run on the new surface, Kyle Larson was the quickest a year ago at 91.730 mph.

Despite a caution-free practice, drivers Josh Berry and Daniel Hemric spun out. Both were able to continue after the quick spins.

RFK Racing’s Cam Waters, however, went for the wildest ride of the session. The second Australian Supercars regular debuting in the Cup Series spun in Turn 1, barely missing the outside wall and tire barriers after looping it through the grass.

Waters was 35th fastest at 95.738 mph.

WATCH: Contrasting lap times at Sonoma | Cam Waters goes for wild spin

The Cup Series will get back on track Saturday for qualifying (6 p.m. ET, FS2, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

During NASCAR Salutes Together with Coca-Cola, the NASCAR industry comes together to honor our heroes and celebrate patriotism by showing appreciation for active and retired service members.

To show our appreciation, active service members and veterans can take advantage of discounts and offers from NASCAR tracks and their partners.

Advanced Auto Parts

10% off regularly priced items for in-store purchases to customers who serve or have served our country’s Armed Services. Qualifying customers may be required to show proof of military status for in-store purchases. All active-duty, reserve, and retired status members of our Armed Services (US Army, US Navy, US Air Force, US Marine Corps, US Coast Guard, US National Guard).

Note: ONLY retired veterans with 20 years or more of service are eligible. All veterans receive VA benefits. Immediate family members of the above-mentioned service members (i.e. spouses and dependent children up to 18 years of age). For more information, view here.

Chevrolet

Chevrolet Military Offer. Discounts for military For more information, view here. 

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Hiring Our Heroes Program. GM is a leading corporate partner of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s Hiring Our Heroes Program, which has helped find jobs for more than 500,000 veterans since its inception in 2012. | View here

Comcast Xfinity

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Dansons Pit Boss

Pit Boss Heroes Program. 25% Discount on all Pit Boss equipment and accessories to military and first respondersFor more information, view here.

Ford

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GEICO

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Mechanix Wear

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Ruoff Mortgage

VA Loan Options. Education and ability to process VA Loans. For more information, view here.

SeatGeek

Discount Code for Military. 5% off, up to $20. For more information, view here.

United Rentals 

Turns for Troops Program. Teamed up with RCR, SHR, others in support of military veterans and their families. Through this program, United Rentals will donate $50 for each lap that their sponsored drivers complete for specific races throughout the season. Funds from the program go to Soldier Strong or Operation Homefront. You can also donate directly to those groups from the Turns for Troops website. For more information, view here.

Hiring Our Nation’s Heroes-Military Hiring Program. Specific hiring program geared directly towards the military community and veterans. This includes development programs, a military skills translator tool, veterans resources, and more. For more information, view here.

Universal Technical Institute

Various Programs for Veterans or Military. VA Funding Program, Financial Aid & Military Scholarships. For more information, view here.

Worldwide Express

Vet Fran. 50% off Unishippers franchise fee. For more information, view here.

Throughout the 2024 NASCAR season, Ken Martin, director of historical content for the sanctioning body, will offer his suggestions on which historical races fans should watch from the NASCAR Classics library in preparation for each upcoming race weekend.

Martin has worked exclusively for NASCAR since 2008 but has been involved with the sport since 1982, overseeing various projects. He has worked in the broadcast booth for hundreds of races, assisting the broadcast team with different tasks. This includes calculating the “points as they run” for the historic 1992 finale, the Hooters 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway.

The following suggestions are Ken’s picks to watch before this weekend’s Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway.

1991 Banquet Frozen Foods 300:

Ricky Rudd arrived at Sonoma for the 1991 edition of the race as quite possibly the driver to watch.

Rudd won the inaugural race at the track in 1989 in dominating fashion, leading 61 of the race’s 74 laps. His victory was backed up in 1990 with another strong showing, as he led 13 laps and finished third. He also sat second in the points standings in 1991, less than 100 points behind Dale Earnhardt.

It was no surprise that Rudd went out in qualifying and put his bright orange No. 5 Chevrolet for Hendrick Motorsports on the pole for the race.

Rusty Wallace, who seemingly had just as much success at Sonoma as Rudd, took the lead on the 12th lap of the race. Wallace finished second to Rudd in the inaugural race at the track and followed it up with a victory in 1990.

Wallace looked to be in control of the race as the laps passed by, leading throughout most of the afternoon before his car lost a cylinder with less than 10 laps remaining.

Tommy Kendall, who was subbing in the No. 42 car for an injured Kyle Petty, was leading the race with four laps remaining when his chance at the victory disappeared as well.

The No. 42 car made contact with Mark Martin, sending Martin around and into the tire barriers. This allowed Davey Allison and Rudd to power past the ailing car of Kendall and inherit the lead.

This set up a dramatic and controversial finish between the two drivers.

Rudd quickly extinguished the gap between him and the rear of Allison’s No. 28 car, as the two came to take the white flag.

He proceeded to make contact with Allison’s bumper, sending the No. 28 car spinning, as Rudd looked poised for a trip to Victory Lane.

Instead of being shown the checkered flag, Rudd was shown the black flag for his on-track actions. His Hendrick Motorsports crew was visibly in disagreement with the call in the pits.

Allison, who quickly recovered from his spin, was in second place at the time but took the checkered flag and the victory. Rudd was credited with a second-place finish.

Davey Allison looks on.
NASCAR Research & Archives Center | Getty Images

1995 Save Mart Supermarkets 300:

It was well known that Dale Earnhardt had accomplished just about everything in his career, especially after capturing his seventh NASCAR Cup Series championship in 1994.

Two things eluded him in his career, his well-documented heartbreaks in taking the checkered flag in the Daytona 500 and a win on a road course.

The Kannapolis, North Carolina driver wasn’t known for his road-course prowess, but he was statistically always a threat to win.

He had the best average finish on road courses in the Cup Series from 1979 to 1990, out of all 46 drivers who made eight-plus starts over that span. His 10.2 average finish over that span was better than Mark Martin’s 11.2, Ricky Rudd’s 11.5, Tim Richmond’s 11.6 and Bobby Allison’s 11.7.

Earnhardt could always be found near the front of the field at Sonoma. He finished fourth in the inaugural race at the track in 1989. From 1991 to 1994, he racked up finishes of seventh, sixth, sixth and third.

He would fittingly be the first to mention that the only lap that pays money is the last one, so it was fitting that his first road-course triumph came in the final moments.

Earnhardt passed Martin with two laps remaining and held on for the checkered flag.

Martin, another road course ace, led 66 of the race’s 74 laps and came home second.

Dale Earnhardt drives at Sonoma.
Getty Images

2010 Toyota/Save Mart 350:

Marcos Ambrose had already established himself as a threat every time he battled the twists and turns of any road course on the schedule but had yet to conquer the entire Cup Series field. He did have two Xfinity Series victories to his name, with both coming at Watkins Glen in 2008 and 2009.

Ambrose found himself battling four-time defending Cup Series champion Jimmie Johnson for the victory at Sonoma in 2010.

The two drivers combined to lead 90 of the 110 laps, as Ambrose was in control of the field as the caution flag came out with seven laps remaining for an incident involving the No. 12 car of Brad Keselowski.

Ambrose was attempting to save fuel under caution and cut his engine off under caution. His car did not immediately turn back on and he lost the lead, as his car did not meet minimum speed under yellow.

Johnson held off Robby Gordon and Kevin Harvick to capture the checkered flag. Ambrose finished a disappointing sixth.

Marcos Ambrose and Jimmie Johnson race at Sonoma.
Jonathan Ferrey | Getty Images

You can watch these three races and hundreds more by visiting NASCAR Classics.

Editor’s Note: Racing Insights’ playoff projections use a combination of current standings and historical performance at upcoming tracks to determine the probability of each driver winning or making the playoffs on points.

With the Cup Series Playoffs on the mind throughout the season, what if there was a way to project how the 16-driver field could look before each race weekend?

It now exists via Racing Insights. From now until the start of the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, “The Field of 16” will give fans a weekly look at where their favorite drivers could potentially land in the postseason field — and the likelihood of having a shot at the Bill France Cup.

Here’s this week’s update on the projections heading into Sonoma Raceway.

NOTABLE PROBABILITY SHIFTS POST-GATEWAY

DriverBefore LoudonEntering NashvilleDifference
Chris Buescher67.32%85.72%+18.40
Ty Gibbs85.47%90.08%+4.61
Bubba Wallace29.21%22.11%-7.10
Alex Bowman86.37%70.11%-16.26
Sonoma playoff predictor
PROBABILITY CALCULATED BY RACING INSIGHTS AHEAD OF TOYOTA / SAVE MART 350, JUNE 9, 2024

DRIVERS SOLIDLY IN PLAYOFF PICTURE

Nine drivers are provisionally locked into the 2024 Cup Series Playoffs, with four of those guaranteed as Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, William Byron and Christopher Bell have all won multiple times this season.

Gateway saw a surprise as Austin Cindric pulled off the upset as his Team Penske counterpart Ryan Blaney ran out of fuel on the final lap. Now, there are more questions than answers as to who will snag the remaining seven spots up for grabs.

Tyler Reddick, Chase Elliott, Brad Keselowski and Daniel Suárez have also collected a single victory so far in 2024 but Suárez has seen a slight dip in his probability as he sits 19th in points amid a pretty lackluster season outside of his Atlanta win and would be the odd man out in the case a 17th winner emerges.

Martin Truex Jr. and Ty Gibbs remain with the highest probabilities of winless drivers so far as the Joe Gibbs Racing teammates currently sit more than 100 points above the elimination line.

LAST 4 IN

If there wasn’t some tension for these drivers before, there sure is now. As some of the sport’s biggest names sit closest to the bubble. Blaney was four corners away from locking a playoff berth until fuel pressure was nullified from the No. 12 Ford. As it stands, the defending Cup champ is nowhere near safe as three consecutive finishes outside the top 20 have put the team behind.

Same goes for Blaney’s teammate and two-time series champion Joey Logano, who finished fifth at Gateway but is amid a dismal season with an average finish just shy of 17th. The Penske stable is known for turning it on in the latter stages of the season but both teams have a hill to climb amid a group of drivers all capable of winning at any track.

Alex Bowman and Bubba Wallace did not have the speed last weekend, and each saw their probabilities drop significantly. The late spring, early summer slate also doesn’t favor either competitor.

FIRST 4 OUT

It’s no secret that Chris Buescher and Kyle Busch need to win soon. Buescher has been much closer to finding that win (0.001 seconds, to be specific) than the 2015 and 2019 series titleholders. Busch has been fast on intermediate tracks this season and a top 10 at COTA earlier this year could bode well for the No. 8 team this weekend at Sonoma.

Michael McDowell and Chase Briscoe remain in the picture as Briscoe is just 10 points below Buescher at the cutline entering Sonoma while McDowell has a plethora of road courses and another superspeedway event before the 16-driver field locks in.

WHO CAN SHAKE UP PLAYOFF PICTURE AT SONOMA?

McDowell and Buescher are the ones to watch here, but the repave could change that this weekend at the road course. Buescher is the only driver to have top fives in both Next Gen races at Sonoma while McDowell has finished third and seventh. The No. 34 team won at a road course last year to make the playoffs so it should come as no surprise if they do it again on Sunday.

MORE: Racing Insights predicts Sonoma | 2024 Cup Series schedule

Before each race weekend, check back into The Field of 16 to see the latest projections of the 2024 Cup Series playoff field.