Posted on by Alex Cadavid

One of this week’s main talking points is who will be anointed Regular Season Champion after a fierce three-way battle. Projections show current points leader Tyler Reddick prevailing in Sunday’s Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway (6 p.m. ET, USA, MRN, SiriusXM, NBC Sports App).

The No. 45 23XI Racing driver has erupted for 11 top fives and 17 top 10s through 25 races. He’s gained 81 points over the last eight races, climbing from 64 points behind in sixth to leading the standings and being separated by 17 markers over Hendrick Motorsports’ Kyle Larson and 18 over Chase Elliott, who are Sunday’s projected second and eighth-place finishers. Reddick has been riding a momentum wave since Charlotte — with only two finishes outside the top 10 since then.

RELATED: Set your Fantasy Live lineup | Weekend schedule

Whoever emerges victorious among the three contenders will likely need to win Sunday’s race to pocket those coveted 15 bonus playoff points. The Southern 500 is notoriously grueling, with an average green flag run of 2 hours and 42 minutes — longest of all tracks in the Next Gen era —  and an average heat temp of 89 degrees Fahrenheit, so such a win would be hard-earned.

However, the opportunity for a 14th winner must not be overlooked after what we’ve seen the past few weeks.

The numbers don’t entirely point to a new winner emerging, though. Only twice since 2014 has a driver raced their way to a post-season bid in the final regular-season race — so it’s still in the cards, just no guarantee. Plus, when you factor in that crown-jewel races have been won by drivers currently top six in points this year, it doesn’t bode well for drivers in must-win positions. Still, crazier things have already happened this season, and throughout history at “The Lady in Black,” we know that it’s anything but predictable.

DRIVERS TO WATCH

CHRIS BUESCHER: Richmond, Michigan and Daytona all came and went and Buescher couldn’t quite rekindle enough magic to find Victory Lane at either of those tracks after sweeping them last year. Still, he wielded top-10 efforts in the last two races while leading some laps last week and we all know how close he was to winning at Darlington this past May.

BUBBA WALLACE: Wallace has elevated his performance over the last few weeks while battling on the bubble. He’s had top-10 speed at Darlington before, and with the chip he’s been racing with on his shoulder, he should be in the mix. The next step is to deliver a walk-off win after earning Saturday’s pole.

MORE: Full starting lineup | Best Darlington photos

KYLE BUSCH: Not only is Rowdy’s season on the line, but his playoff streak is as well. He’s managed to go the last two races unscathed and is inching ever closer to a win. You have to go back to 2008 for Busch’s last Darlington win, but as the saying goes — it’s never over until it’s over.

ERIK JONES: Alright, time to get a little wild. It’s worth pointing out that the iconic Nos. 3, 21, 24 and 43 cars have never won in the same year and Jones is the lone missing number there so far. The 2024 campaign has already been shaping as an all-time season, so maybe there’s room for another first. Darlington is a track where Jones has found fortune in posting two wins and eight top 10s.

MORE: Busch, Jones face final playoff shots: ‘Not going to be easy’

JUSTIN HALEY: If you can impress Michael Jordan with moves on-track, chances are you are doing something right. Numbers may not exactly paint just how well Haley has driven the second half of the season, but it’s clear that with two top 10s in 2024 and leading 21 laps last week, he can find speed in the No. 51 Ford.

MORE: How to get notified for 2025 schedule release 

RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE COOK OUT SOUTHERN 500

Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results. Updated Sept. 1.

FinishCar NumberDriver
145Tyler Reddick
25Kyle Larson
312Ryan Blaney
411Denny Hamlin
524William Byron
66Brad Keselowski
720Christopher Bell
89Chase Elliott
923Bubba Wallace
1017Chris Buescher
1119Martin Truex Jr.
1222Joey Logano
1354Ty Gibbs
141Ross Chastain
154Josh Berry
168Kyle Busch
1748Alex Bowman
1877Carson Hocevar
192Austin Cindric
2010Noah Gragson
2114Chase Briscoe
2234Michael McDowell
2351Justin Haley
2499Daniel Suárez
2538Todd Gilliland
2643Erik Jones
273Austin Dillon
287Corey LaJoie
2941Ryan Preece
3047Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
3121Harrison Burton
3271Zane Smith
3331Daniel Hemric
3442John H. Nemechek
3515Kaz Grala
3616Shane van Gisbergen
3766Timmy Hill
Posted on by Tadd Haislop

OSWEGO, N.Y. — Patrick Emerling’s victory Saturday night in the Toyota Mod Classic 150 at New York’s Oswego Speedway was not as dominant as the win he secured a few weeks ago at Thompson Speedway Motorsports Park.

The rest of the NASCAR Whelen Modified Tour field, though, couldn’t tell much of a difference.

The 31-year-old from nearby Orchard Park, New York took the lead on a power move as the race reached its halfway point, and despite multiple restarts and challenges from eventual runner-up Matt Hirschman, Emerling powered to the checkered flag with a strong No. 1 Modified. He did so after leading every lap of the Aug. 14 running of the Thompson 150.

Unofficially, Emerling’s second consecutive Modified Tour win brings him within 24 points of leader Justin Bonsignore in the championship battle. He’s just 19 points behind second-place Ron Silk, joining both as multi-time race winners on the Modified Tour in 2024.

RELATED: Complete results from Oswego

“The 60 was really fast; he’s super hard to beat here,” Emerling said of Hirschman. “Really solid pit stop, and we did a little dicing on that start there to get us the lead. And then we had the car.

“We’re coming on strong as a team. We’re showing up with incredible race cars week in and week out. We just have to continue doing what we’re doing.”

The aforementioned pit cycle during a caution just before the race’s halfway point shook up the front of the field. To that point, Hirschman, who was fastest in practice and qualified on the pole, had led every lap as the clear driver to beat.

A slower stop, however, pushed Hirschman back to fifth place for the restart. Tim Connolly stayed out to assume the lead, and the presence of the No. 4 Mystic Missile at the front of the field was a major factor in how the proceeding laps developed.

Connolly’s slower car caused a bit of a jam on the restart, and Emerling dove to the inside of Connolly to take the lead before Bonsignore had a chance to do so up top.

From there, Emerling never looked back.

“Unfortunately for us, [Connolly] stayed out on old tires,” Bonsignore said. “Crept into the box and shuffled us out there, and Patrick got the lead. I think if I could have gotten the lead, maybe I would have had the track position to hold them off. Our car was really good the last 25 laps or so.”

Hirschman felt satisfied with his run despite the sting of a runner-up finish. Sometimes, he noted, others are just as quick.

“It was a real good day; the only place we got passed all day was the pits, so we lost a few there,” Hirschman said. “The 1 and us were just so close to identical in lap times. There were times when he was a few hundredths better and he opened a little lead, and there was a time when I was a few hundredths better. Two cars were just that close.

“We had the advantage early being out front. He had the advantage after halfway being out front.”

Silk finished fourth, one spot behind Bonsignore as the two continue a championship battle that now includes Emerling.

Austin Beers rebounded from an early pit stop and worked his way back through the field to finish fifth.

Jacob Lutz, Tommy Catalano, Kyle Bonsignore, Craig Lutz and Tyler Rypkema finished sixth through 10th, respectively.

The NASCAR Whelen Modified Tour drivers and teams get a couple weeks off before they return to action Sept. 14 at New York’s Riverhead Raceway on Long Island. The Eddie Partridge 256 is scheduled to start at 8 p.m. ET. FloRacing will provide live coverage.

Posted on by Staff Report

Toyota Mod Classic 150

Oswego Speedway

  • Qualifying results
Pos. No. Driver Sponsor Best Time Best Speed
1 60 Matt Hirschmann Elite 17.559 128.139
2 46 Craig Lutz Riverhead Building Supply 17.679 127.27
3 1 Patrick Emerling Fleetworks Inc 17.728 126.918
4 51 Justin Bonsignore Phoenix Communications, Inc. 17.8 126.404
5 22 Kyle Bonsignore Chalew Performance/MTT/Munns Auto 17.807 126.355
6 64 Austin Beers G&G Electrical Supply/Dell Electric/Lumiere Electrical 17.82 126.263
7 3 Bobby Santos, III USNE 17.838 126.135
8 16 Ron Silk Blue Mountain Machine/Future Homes 17.89 125.769
9 56 Trevor Catalano* Catalano Motorsports 17.902 125.684
10 54 Tommy Catalano Catalano Motorsports 17.932 125.474
11 32 Tyler Rypkema Musco Lighting/Northeast Drilling 17.967 125.23
12 82 Woody Pitkat Horton Avenue Materials/Gunsmoke Stables Racing 17.993 125.049
13 84 Tyler Catalano* Catalano Motorsports 18.059 124.592
14 14 Jacob Lutz* Advantage Trucks/Anastasi Trucking/Anastasi Trucking 18.077 124.468
15 0 Andy Jankowiak Spafco Race Chassis/BNP Machine 18.264 123.193
16 4 Tim Connolly Connolly Companies, LLC 18.295 122.984
17 24 Andrew Krause Supreme Manufacturing 18.375 122.449
18 18 Ken Heagy Buoy One Seafood & Restaurant 18.705 120.289
19 10 Bob Reis* IronListing.com/B.R. Machineworks 18.93 118.859
20 1 Melissa Fifield Pine Knoll Auto Sales 20.55 109.489

 

Posted on by Staff Report

DARLINGTON, S.C. — Another NASCAR Xfinity Series race that was seemingly in Sheldon Creed’s grasp wriggled free again Saturday at Darlington Raceway. If there was some odd form of consolation for the 26-year-old driver, he at least didn’t add to his distinctive record of runner-up placements without a win.

“I’m glad I didn’t run second again,” Creed said. “At this point, I’ll run third before I run second.”

Creed led 30 of the 150 laps in Saturday’s Sport Clips Haircuts VFW Help A Hero 200, falling short after a slightly slower stop in the final pit cycle dropped him from the lead to third place in the order. That’s where he finished in the No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota, behind Cup Series regular and race winner Christopher Bell and runner-up Cole Custer, who nearly tangled with Bell in their heated contest for the lead with a lap and a half remaining.

RELATED: Race results | At-track photos: Darlington

Creed’s 93rd career start in the Xfinity Series seemed to be headed for a breakthrough, especially after he methodically chased down Bell’s No. 20 JGR Supra to grab the lead with nine laps left in regulation. A late caution flag, however, tilted the race’s complexion after AJ Allmendinger crunched the outside retaining wall on Lap 143, one lap after contact with Custer.

That yellow flag set up overtime and a last round of pit service. Creed entered pit road with the lead, but left third after a slight lag on the right-rear tire change, landing him on the second row for the last restart.

“I was optimistic at first, right?” said Creed, a two-time Darlington winner in Truck Series competition. “My pit crew had been really good all day, and I just figured we would come in first and leave first, and I needed to at least probably be on the front row for a green-white-checkered like that. … I don’t know. I’m obviously really bummed because today was our day, and I felt like I put in one of my best performances, and yeah, to have a caution like that ruin it, it sucks.”

Bright spots persisted for the No. 18 team, even with the heartache of Saturday’s Darlington finish. Creed added to his series-best mark with his 10th top-five finish of the year, and the No. 18 pit crew had registered two of the three fastest times on pit road before the fateful final stop.

“I think just we are going to hang our hats on how fast we were the whole race, that we got better throughout the day,” No. 18 crew chief Sam McAulay told NASCAR.com. “Stage 3, clearly the best car, and Sheldon did a great job, passed the 20 really well. I mean, I think the pit crew on average for the day is still like probably P1, P2. They’ve been great. That’s just part of it, when you get a late caution like that. But I mean, we just have to keep putting ourselves in the top five. … We keep doing that, keep bringing good cars, I know it’s coming soon, but it definitely stings to have a car pulling away and then finish third, but it’s part of racing.”

The collision between the two front-runners in Bell and Custer was almost the flashpoint that could have opened the door for Creed. Bell said post-race that he thought his car was about to nose into the inside wall after the two came together, but both he and Custer straightened it out to stay 1-2.

“It was just really tight racing,” said Custer, who leaves Darlington second in the series standings — 28 points behind Justin Allgaier, Saturday’s 10th-place finisher. “It is always fun to race with Christopher. We were both just trying to stay in the throttle off of Turn 2. I couldn’t tell if he came down or I came up a little bit. It was a hard decision to make because he was coming down and I didn’t know if I should lift or stay in it and let him wreck himself. I think if I had stayed in it, I would have wrecked myself. It was a great race by everyone on our team. To come from 21st to second is a huge accomplishment. I can’t thank everyone enough, especially the pit crew. The pit crew did a great job.”

Posted on by Staff Report

Toyota Mod Classic 150

Oswego Speedway

  • Practice results
Pos. No. Driver Sponsor Best Time Best Speed In Lap Laps Diff.
1 60 Matt Hirschmann Elite 17.551 128.198 13 16  .
2 1 Patrick Emerling Fleetworks Inc 17.666 127.363 12 12 0.115
3 46 Craig Lutz Riverhead Building Supply 17.701 127.111 15 16 0.15
4 51 Justin Bonsignore Phoenix Communications, Inc. 17.735 126.868 12 24 0.184
5 22 Kyle Bonsignore Chalew Performance/MTT/Munns Auto 17.759 126.696 12 15 0.208
6 64 Austin Beers G&G Electrical Supply/Dell Electric/Lumiere Electrical 17.762 126.675 21 21 0.211
7 16 Ron Silk Blue Mountain Machine/Future Homes 17.821 126.256 17 17 0.27
8 3 Bobby Santos, III USNE 17.833 126.171 16 17 0.282
9 56 Trevor Catalano* Catalano Motorsports 17.907 125.649 11 11 0.356
10 84 Tyler Catalano* Catalano Motorsports 17.934 125.46 18 18 0.383
11 54 Tommy Catalano Catalano Motorsports 17.951 125.341 7 7 0.4
12 32 Tyler Rypkema Musco Lighting/Northeast Drilling 17.984 125.111 19 20 0.433
13 82 Woody Pitkat Horton Avenue Materials/Gunsmoke Stables Racing 17.995 125.035 11 13 0.444
14 24 Andrew Krause Supreme Manufacturing 18.028 124.806 23 24 0.477
15 4 Tim Connolly Connolly Companies, LLC 18.062 124.571 19 20 0.511
16 00 Andy Jankowiak Spafco Race Chassis/BNP Machine 18.17 123.83 15 17 0.619
17 18 Ken Heagy Buoy One Seafood & Restaurant 18.517 121.51 7 7 0.966
18 14 Jacob Lutz* Advantage Trucks/Anastasi Trucking/Anastasi Trucking 18.562 121.215 4 6 1.011
19 10 Bob Reis* IronListing.com/B.R. Machineworks 18.599 120.974 12 13 1.048
20 01 Melissa Fifield Pine Knoll Auto Sales 20.279 110.952 16 18 2.728

 

Posted on by Reid Spencer

DARLINGTON, S.C. — Christopher Bell survived a near-disaster with Cole Custer on the first lap of overtime and held on to win Saturday’s Sport Clips Haircuts VFW Help a Hero 200 over Custer and snakebit Sheldon Creed.

During a green-flag run that started on lap 97 of 150, Creed caught and passed Bell for the lead on Lap 139 and was poised to claim his first NASCAR Xfinity Series victory after a record 11 runner-up finishes in the series.

But Kaulig Racing’s AJ Allmendinger slapped the outside wall on Lap 143, causing the sixth caution of the afternoon, and Creed lost the top spot with a slow 15-second stop on pit road, thanks to issues with the right-rear tire.

RELATED: Race results | At-track photos: Darlington

Creed restarted third behind Bell in the outside lane. Contact between the cars of Bell and Stewart-Haas Racing’s Custer on the backstretch got both cars out of shape below the normal racing line, but the drivers recovered and held their positions.

“That was wild, for sure,” said Bell, who started from the pole and led 108 laps. “I thought I was headed nose-first into the inside wall… It’s a tough race track, and off of (Turn) 2, whether you’re on the bottom of the top, it flushes you to the wall, and then you kind of get a little bit of a wiggle coming down.

“Once again, I feel terrible for Sheldon, to essentially win the race on the long run there and then lose it on pit road. It’s a big bummer … It seemed like our car was really good on the short runs. Obviously, the 18, Sheldon, was really good on the long runs.

“Unfortunately for him, the race played out differently, and fortunately for us, we got another shot at it.”

The victory was Bell’s second of the season in as many starts, with the first victory having come at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in June. But Bell’s triumph came at the expense of his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate.

As expected, Creed was disconsolate as he reflected on the race that got away.

“I lost one the same way a few years ago here,” lamented Creed, who led 30 laps and was pulling away from Bell before the final caution. “This has been a really good place for me. I’ve always loved racing here. Man, I don’t know if we could be any better than that.

“I felt like I put in one of my best performances today … Man, it’s a bummer. I’m so proud of everyone at Joe Gibbs Racing on this 18 team. I took a chance on myself and brought all the money we could. I’m literally not even making a dollar this year.”

Creed will leave Joe Gibbs Racing to drive a Ford for the Haas Factory Team next year.

NASCAR Cup Series driver Chase Elliott finished fourth, followed by Sammy Smith, who leap-frogged Ryan Sieg into the final playoff-eligible position on points. Smith leads Sieg by 10 points with three races left in the Xfinity regular season.

Jesse Love, Shane van Gisbergen, Chandler Smith, Austin Hill and Justin Allgaier completed the top 10.

Creed did pick up his first stage win of the season, beating Bell to the finish line in Stage 2. Bell won the opening 45-lap stage over Hill.

MORE: Xfinity Series standings | Xfinity Series schedule

The Xfinity Series returns to action Saturday at Atlanta Motor Speedway for the Focused Health 250 at 3 p.m. ET (USA Network, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App).

NOTE: Post-race inspection in the Xfinity Series garage at Darlington concluded without issue, confirming Bell as the race winner.

Contributing: Staff report

Posted on by Reid Spencer

There’s light at the end of the tunnel for impending free agent Harrison Burton, after last Saturday’s dramatic victory at Daytona International Speedway launched him into the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs.

Burton won’t return to the No. 21 Wood Brothers Racing Ford in 2025, but delivering the 100th win for the venerable racing team has stimulated interest in the 23-year-old driver from other quarters.

RELATED: Milestone win for Burton, Wood Brothers | At-track photos: Darlington

Though Burton can’t be specific at this point, he is optimistic about his future.

“I think I’ll be a race car driver next year, so that’s great,” Burton said Wednesday during a celebration of the victory at the Wood Brothers shop in Mooresville, North Carolina. “I don’t know where exactly, or what series — I don’t know. I think it’s all fluid.

“I feel like (I’m getting) close to where I feel good about a couple things. I feel like I’m in a place now where the places I’m going to go in the future want me and genuinely want me as a race car driver to go and help them try to win races.”

Burton passed Kyle Busch for the lead on the final lap at Daytona and won the Coke Zero Sugar 400 by 0.047 seconds. He has mixed feelings about watching the video of the final two overtime laps.

“Not a ton, honestly, mostly ‘cause I hate the way my voice sounds on my radio when I scream,” Burton said when asked how many times he had watched the replay. “I don’t know why — it just bothers me …

“(Broadcaster) Leigh Diffey had a pretty awesome call of it. He’s like setting up the Kyle Busch story, ‘He hasn’t won since 2008,’ and then it’s like, ‘Here comes Harrison Burton out of nowhere.’ That was cool.”

MORE: Cup Series standings | Key players in Silly Season 2024-25

In the booth with Diffey was Burton’s father, serving as a race analyst for NBC Sports.

“I did like to listen a few times to see what my dad said, and he was pretty quiet up there, which is typical of my dad in the booth whenever I’m racing,” Harrison Burton said. “He tries very hard to be unbiased.

“Then I see the video of him muting his mic and almost punching Leigh Diffey, fist-pumping.”

Posted on by Holly Cain

Legacy Motor Club driver Erik Jones comes to Darlington ranked 26th in the championship standings, yet he is as optimistic about this weekend as he could possibly be to pull off a walk-off home run of sorts and win to earn his championship chance. Two of his three career NASCAR Cup Series victories have come in the Southern 500.

A victory Sunday night would be Jones’ first top five of the season in the No. 43 Toyota. His best showing is eighth place in the season-opening Daytona 500 — his only top 10 of 2024. He was fastest in Group A practice Saturday but will start the race 28th after dipping in qualifying.

PROJECTIONS: Full race results | 2024 playoff field

“It’s just been a long year for a lot of different reasons,” Jones said. “But I think if you told me I had to pick one track other than a superspeedway, I’d probably pick Darlington to go win.

“Definitely some confidence in that. I think any time you come to a place you’ve had success a few times with different groups, you have the notes to dive into and the confidence you know how to get around the place and do what you need to do.

“It’s not going to be easy by any stretch, but I feel like we have a good plan.”

erik jones looks on at darlington
Meg Oliphant | Getty Images

Kyle Busch is another former Darlington winner capable of pulling off a victory that would propel him into the playoffs. The driver of the No. 8 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet has scored top-five finishes in the last two races — including a season-best runner-up showing at Daytona last week — but he still sits in 19th place, 106 points below the current playoff elimination line.

A three-race winner last year with RCR, Busch’s team has struggled in 2024 with only four top-five runs. But Darlington has traditionally been a solid venue for him. He won here in 2008 and has a pair of runner-up finishes (2017, 2020). He’s scored top-10 finishes in more than half his starts (14 times in 25 races) and had a run of 11 top-10 runs in 14 races between 2010-21.

He will start 17th Sunday.

MORE: Wallace snags crucial Busch Light Pole at Darlington

“This race in the spring, we did not run well, but we don’t come in this weekend holding our heads low and thinking that we’re going to not run well again,” said Busch, who finished 27th in April. “We put our heads to paper and try to figure out why and said we’re going to go there with the best piece we can and try to kick their butt and get a win.”

Posted on by Zach Sturniolo

Cook Out Southern 500

(⏰ Sunday, 6 p.m. ET | USA Network | NBC Sports App | MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio)

Weekend schedule | TV schedule | Weather tracker | NASCAR 101

Location: Darlington, South Carolina
Track length: 1.366 miles
Race purse: $8,644,143
Race distance: 367 laps | 501.32 miles
Stages: 115 | 230 | 367
—
Starting lineup: Bubba Wallace rockets to pole
Pit stall assignments: See where drivers will pit
Defending winner: Kyle Larson, September 2023

Key things to watch

Saturday sessions

Bubba Wallace sped to the Busch Light Pole Award, with a speed of 167.146 mph, securing his 23XI Racing Toyota a pivotal top starting position in Sunday’s Cook Out Southern 500 as he seeks a spot in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs. Carson Hocevar earned a career-best second-place starting spot in the No. 77 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet.

Two-time Southern 500 winner Erik Jones posted the fastest lap in Saturday’s practice session at 166.461 mph in the No. 43 Legacy Motor Club Toyota. Hendrick Motorsports’ Alex Bowman and Front Row Motorsports’ Todd Gilliland were quickest in 10-lap averages. | Full Saturday recap

Big story line

The swings that make a season

Twenty-five races have led us to the regular-season finale, a 500-mile showdown at one of NASCAR’s fiercest tracks with just three spots left to claim in the Cup Series Playoffs grid.

At least two spots will be claimed based on points, positioning Martin Truex Jr. (58 points above the elimination line) and Ty Gibbs (plus-39) in the most comfortable positions heading into the Southern 500. That puts Chris Buescher — 21 markers above the line — in the provisional final spot in the 16-driver bracket, with Bubba Wallace (minus-21), Ross Chastain (minus-27) and Kyle Busch (minus-106) eager to cut in line.

Before Sunday’s ultimate battle, a look at the swings that have Buescher, Wallace, Chastain and Busch on the brink of either playoff glory or regular-season heartbreak:

Chris Buescher: Kansas, Darlington spring
Details: If Chris Buescher misses the postseason one year after a three-win campaign in 2023, a simple two-week stretch in May will serve as the stinging what-if. Buescher was 0.001 seconds away from a playoff-clinching victory on May 5 at Kansas Speedway, falling short to Kyle Larson in the closest finish in NASCAR Cup Series history. In other words, no one ever came closer to winning a Cup race without claiming the checkered flag than Buescher.

One week later, Buescher was back in the hunt for another victory and leading with 10 laps to go over Tyler Reddick and Brad Keselowski — all until Reddick’s dive-bomb move into Turn 3 walled Buescher. The damaged plummeted Buescher from a minimum third-place finish down to 30th in the final rundown, a difference of 27 points that could become pivotal in determining Sunday night’s playoff outcome.

Bubba Wallace: Richmond spring, Michigan
Details: While Bubba Wallace hasn’t been as close to victory as Buescher this year, these races jump out as collective missed opportunities for the No. 23 team. A late-race battle for fourth with Kyle Larson at Richmond Raceway resulted in Larson spinning across Wallace’s nose after the No. 5 Chevrolet slid loose and slowed ever so slightly. The resulting caution cued pit stops, with Wallace falling from the top five with two laps left in regulation to a 13th-place finish in overtime, costing him at least eight points.

At Michigan, Wallace’s 23XI Racing machine was blazing fast, leaving Denny Hamlin and Larson in the dust while charging to the lead early. But a Stage 2 crash at Lap 116 upended his day, triggered when Larson spun on corner exit with Wallace and the field behind with nowhere to go. Wallace nursed his battered car home in 26th, one lap down. The total point loss for Wallace is tougher to quantify since over 40% of the race remained at the time of his crash. But given his early speed, 14 fastest laps per loop data and early running position, a 10th-place run is reasonable to estimate — meaning his 26th-place finish cost him at least 16 points. Coupled with the points lost from Richmond, those 24 points could be the difference from a postseason berth.

Ross Chastain: Texas, Nashville, Michigan
Details: Though Ross Chastain’s laps led are down significantly in 2024 — 175 compared to 640 led in 2023 and 692 in ’22 — Texas and Nashville leap out as exceptions this year. The No. 1 Trackhouse Racing driver led 33 laps at Texas and was second in overtime on the white-flag lap. But a slip high in Turn 2 led William Byron to his rear bumper, turning Chastain on the backstretch, resulting in a 32nd-place finish — a 30-point swing in one corner.

Nashville echoed the same pain. Chastain was passed for the lead late by Hamlin and was cruising to a runner-up day before a late Austin Cindric spin sent the event to overtime. Lined up second on the restart, Chastain was crashed after contact from Larson and finished 33rd — this time, a 31-point swing.

Michigan netted a 13-point loss in overtime for Chastain. Restarting 12th, Chastain charged up the outside down the backstretch but became collateral damage when Alex Bowman hit the wall, creating a stack-up that sent Chastain spinning into the grass, where he got stuck and lost a lap, finishing 25th instead. In all, three overtime periods may have cost Chastain 74 points and may ultimately restrict him from the playoffs.

Kyle Busch: Atlanta, Daytona
Details: In a season full of tough moments for Kyle Busch, no what-if stands out more than Race No. 2 of 2024 at Atlanta Motor Speedway, where the No. 8 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet finished third by 0.007 seconds in a three-wide finish behind race winner Daniel Suárez and Ryan Blaney. Busch has totaled 25 more points than Suárez this season, but Suárez’s victory seals him a spot in the postseason, while Busch enters a must-win situation at Darlington to advance.

Busch was painfully close to finishing the job last week at Daytona, but an improbable run by Harrison Burton and Parker Retzlaff propelled Burton to the win instead — by just 0.047 seconds over Busch. So while Buescher, Wallace and Chastain all left points on the table, a total of 0.054 seconds may separate Busch from another playoff run.

Daniel Suárez crosses the finish line just before Kyle Busch and Ryan Blaney in the spring of 2024 at Atlanta Motor Speedway.
Alex Slitz | Getty Images

History tells us…

The postseason grid may not change Sunday night. According to Racing Insights, only twice in the elimination-style playoffs has a driver raced his way into the playoffs in the final race of the regular season. Ryan Newman did so in 2019 on points, and Austin Dillon won at Daytona in the 2022 finale.

He may not be the betting favorite to win, but watch out for…

ERIK JONES. It shouldn’t be very surprising to see Jones’ name pop up here. Although Jones and the No. 43 Legacy Motor Club team have struggled to just one top 10 all season, Darlington is a track at which Jones has always excelled, scoring two Southern 500 triumphs, five top fives and eight top 10s in 13 starts. | Darlington odds

Speed reads

Our biggest pieces of the week — get covered for race day from all angles.

• Mark your calendars: 2025 schedules unveiled for Cup, Xfinity and Craftsman Truck series | Read article
• International territory: Cup ventures to Mexico City in ’25 in milestone event | Read article
• Reddick rising: On chasing Regular Season Championship with Jordan, Woods and Gretzky on hood | Read article
• Wallace on stakes at Darlington: ‘I need to portray the best race that I’ve ever had in my career’ | Read article
• Past Darlington winners talk position: Kyle Busch, Erik Jones angle for playoff bids | Read article
• Burton on racing future: ‘I think I’ll be a race car driver next year’ | Read article
• Three Xfinity teams penalized: Nos. 27, 28, 45 teams levied L1-level penalties after Daytona | Read article
• Power Rankings: Will Elliott, Larson topple Reddick for Regular Season Championship? | Photo gallery
• Turning Point: What’s next for Burton, and what a regular-season finale at Darlington highlights | Read article
• Racing Insights: Full finishing order projections for Sunday’s crown jewel | Read article
• Field of 16: How the playoff picture shakes out with one race left to decide grid | Read article
• 36 for 36: Check out this week’s survivor pool picks | Read article
• Fantasy Fastlane: Points battles aplenty as regular season wraps | Photo gallery
• Fantasy Update: Bubba Wallace rising to the pressure at Darlington | Read article
• NASCAR Classics: Head into the video vault with vintage Darlington replays | Read article
• Paint Scheme Preview: Fresh designs to don at Darlington | Pick your favorite

Fast facts ⏩

Race-relevant statistics, brought to you by the experts at Racing Insights.

• The last eight races at Darlington were each won by a different driver. The Darlington record for most consecutive different winners is 11.
• The eventual race winner has never finished worse than 10th in a stage in the 13 races at Darlington with stages.
• The top three in the regular-season standings are separated by 18 points, the closest ever at this point in a season.