Why Kyle Larson will win the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series title

Posted on October 31, 2023October 31, 2023 by Chris Murdock

Editor’s note: This is the first in a series of four stories examining why each Championship 4 driver could win the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Championship.

Tuesday: Kyle Larson
Wednesday: Christopher Bell
Thursday: William Byron
Friday: Ryan Blaney

• • •

Kyle Larson will win the 2023 championship because …

Cooler heads prevail when chasing the NASCAR Cup Series title.

Kyle Larson proved himself as a championship favorite by winning two races in the 2023 playoffs, both opening-round wins (Round of 16 at Darlington Raceway, Round of 8 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway). With his win at Las Vegas, Larson was the first driver to lock himself into the Championship 4, and with that, basically earned a two-week opportunity to focus on the season’s final race at Phoenix Raceway.

Larson intends to replicate his dominant performance at Phoenix earlier this year, where he led for an impressive 201 of 317 laps and finished in fourth place.

“I’ll study that a lot in case I’m in that position again and try to do a better job going forward,” Larson said. “But, yes, Phoenix is a great track for us. Short tracks, in general, have been our strong suit this year. We’d love to go to Phoenix and have a great car again.”

In 2023, the No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports driver has two wins and one runner-up finish in short-track races in the Cup Series. Larson additionally won the All-Star Race in dominant fashion during the series’ historic return to the 0.625-mile track of North Wilkesboro Speedway.

Heading into the season finale, Larson is the only driver out of the Championship 4 to have won the NASCAR Cup Series Championship, coming with his victory to cap the 2021 season in Phoenix. He did so on the strength of his final pit stop in which his team serviced his car and sent him off pit road first — the majority of that team returns intact this weekend.

When it comes to the 2023 Cup Series Championship, Kyle Larson is as laser-focused as they come.

Key stats: 4 wins, 14 top fives, 17 top 10s, avg. finish of 15.0

Championship 4 history: This is Kyle Larson’s second Championship 4 appearance. He has one championship (2021).

Defining 2023 moment: Winning at Las Vegas Motor Speedway to lock into the Championship 4.

Watch out for: Late restarts — Larson was dominant at Phoenix in the spring, but a late restart caught him off guard and relegated him to fourth. With a championship on the line, anything can happen in the closing laps.

Posted on October 30, 2023October 30, 2023 by Staff Report

During the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, fans have the opportunity to compete in The Playoffs Grid™ Challenge presented by Ruoff Mortage on their own or as part of a created league.

Fans can enter by visiting The Playoffs Grid™ Challenge page and select their picks for the Championship 4, which takes place this Sunday at Phoenix Raceway (3 p.m. ET, NBC, Peacock, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App). Register for a free NASCAR.com account before filling out a bracket. From there, choose from a list of playoff-eligible drivers, and you’re on your way to compete for prizes. Picks for this round close at 3:20 p.m. ET on Sunday, so sign up and select who you think will win it all!

RELATED: How the NASCAR Playoffs work

Why do I need an account?

Registering for an account allows you to score points and keep track of your progress throughout the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs. Additionally, a NASCAR.com account allows you to keep track of the latest news, customize updates and learn inside information throughout the playoffs and beyond. If you already have a registered NASCAR.com account, simply logging in with the same credentials will allow you to compete without additional steps or the creation of a new account.

Can I create multiple entries?

All entrants are eligible to create up to three entries per person.

Does The Playoffs Grid™ Challenge work on mobile?

Participants are able to access the challenge and fill out brackets on mobile web and desktop applications.

Can I set up a league?

In addition to joining the overall leaderboard, participants can create their own leagues to compete with friends and others throughout the community. Leagues can be public and available for anyone to join or private and password protected. To join or create a league, follow the instructions on the Leagues tab. There, you can see participants, standings and point totals for each of your league entries. Creating or joining a league does not impact the eligibility to win prizes.

When do I make my picks?

The Playoffs Grid™ Challenge is conducted in a round-by-round format, mirroring the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs elimination rounds. Beginning with the first opportunity to register on Aug. 29, each round has a window for participants to make their picks. When choosing drivers, list them in the correct order you think they will finish in.

Selections for the playoff-opening Round of 16 (drivers you believe will advance to the Round of 12) can be submitted before 6 p.m. ET on Sept. 3. Not long after the elimination at Bristol Motor Speedway, points are awarded and the Round of 12 selections (drivers you believe will advance to the Round of 8) will open until 3:30 p.m. ET on Sept. 24. After the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval, Round of 8 selections (drivers you believe will make it to the Championship 4) will be available until 2:30 p.m. ET on Oct. 15. The Championship 4 and final round opens after the race at Martinsville Speedway (picking the driver you believe will win the title) and must be submitted before 3 p.m. ET on Nov. 5.

What am I picking?	When does it open?	When does it close?
Which drivers from the Round of 16 will advance to the Round of 12?	The Playoffs Grid™ Challenge launches Tuesday, August 29. Participants, start your selections!	Sept. 3 at 6 p.m. ET — before the playoff race at Darlington Raceway
Which drivers from the Round of 12 will advance to the Round of 8?	Within 12 hours of the race at Bristol Motor Speedway on Sept. 16	Sept. 24 at 3:30 p.m. ET — before the playoff race at Texas Motor Speedway
Which drivers from the Round of 8 will advance to the Championship 4?	Within 12 hours of the race at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval on Oct. 8	Oct. 15 at 2:30 p.m. ET — before the playoff race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway
Which driver will win the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Championship?	Within 12 hours of the race at Martinsville Speedway on Oct. 29	Nov. 5 at 2:30 p.m. ET — before the Cup Series Championship race at Phoenix Raceway

Is there a points system?

Yes. During each round, participants will earn points based on their selections. Participants will receive 10 points for each driver correctly selected to advance to the next round of the playoffs, except for the Championship Round™. For the final round, all coming down to the finale at Phoenix Raceway, the correct driver chosen to win the 2023 Cup Series championship earns participants 40 points.

Five bonus points (per correct pick) are also awarded for arranging playoff drivers in the correct finishing order and one point for finishes one spot before or after. Points carry from round to round, and the eligible participant with the most points at the end of the Championship Round™ will be declared the winner.

Scoring factors in official finishing order after post-race inspection.

What are the prizes I can win for competing?

Cash prizes for The Playoffs Grid™ Challenge are awarded to the top three eligible entrants in the overall standings. One first-place winner will receive $10,000, one second-place winner will receive $5,000 and one third-place winner will receive $2,500. Participants can track their place in the standings with the live leaderboard throughout each round of the playoffs. Accounts listed in the top three positions – or any other position – may not necessarily be the top participants eligible to win prizes.

See the official rules for additional information on eligibility, prizes and tiebreak procedures.

Who are the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs drivers?

William Byron, Martin Truex Jr., Denny Hamlin, Chris Buescher, Kyle Busch, Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, Ross Chastain, Brad Keselowski, Tyler Reddick, Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney, Michael McDowell, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Kevin Harvick, Bubba Wallace

Posted on October 30, 2023October 30, 2023 by Zack Albert

MARTINSVILLE, Va. — Phoenix has its four.

Christopher Bell, Ryan Blaney, William Byron and Kyle Larson — the drivers who will vie for the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series championship in Sunday’s season finale at Phoenix Raceway — make up the youngest title-eligible quartet since the elimination-style playoff format was introduced in 2014. It’s a group of four that includes:

• Two first-time Championship 4 qualifiers (Blaney, Byron)
• One past champion (Larson, 2021)
• Three organizations representing all three manufacturers
• The Cup Series’ three most recent winners (Larson, Bell and Blaney, in order)
• The most recent Phoenix winner (Byron in March)
• An average age of 28 years, 11 months, 25 days, younger than last year’s record group

For that matter, let’s include no clear-cut standout as a favorite to take home the Bill France Cup in Sunday’s championship race (3 p.m. ET, NBC, Peacock, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App), with each driver building a compelling case for the title laurels.

Blaney punctuated the final elimination bracket Sunday with a clinching victory at Martinsville Speedway, finally breaking through to his first title shot in his fifth Round of 8 appearance. His sterling performance continued a recent run of strong results, with two victories among his four top 10s in the last five weeks.

Blaney’s record at the mile-long track at Phoenix is worth examining. The 29-year-old driver has finished among the top five in four consecutive Phoenix races, and he has been runner-up the last two times there. He led roughly a third of last year’s Phoenix finale before Team Penske teammate Joey Logano — who similarly blossomed during last year’s postseason — took command to wear the 2022 crown. Blaney now has the chance to hand team owner Roger Penske back-to-back titles.

“The playoffs for us, for Joey last year and me this year, have been fairly similar,” Blaney said. “Peaking at a really good time — that’s kind of what that group did last year. We’re definitely doing that this year.”

Blaney will be carrying the banner for Ford this weekend, and Bell will have the hopes of Toyota riding on his shoulders. The pressure was off Bell and his No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing group at Martinsville after a decisive victory the previous week at Homestead-Miami Speedway, and he finished a solid seventh to cap a more than respectable Round of 8.

Bell is the lone returning driver from last year’s Championship 4, and his eagerness to head west and better his third-place result in the 2022 standings was measurable.

“We are going to have a rocket ship,” Bell said. “I can’t wait to get out there.”

The last two entrants in the title fray are also teammates, with Larson and Byron placing their two Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolets among the final four. At 31, Larson is the senior-most Championship 4 driver, and Byron ranks as the youngest, just 25.

MORE: Best photos from Martinsville

Both have their own fondness for Phoenix based on recent results. Byron won the most recent race in the Arizona desert, scoring the second of what is now a series-leading six wins this season with the No. 24 team. Larson, however, won the pole and led the most laps in that race (201 of 317) before his No. 5 Chevy slipped to a fourth-place outcome.

Larson’s veteran group has had two weeks to prepare for the finale, based on his clinching win in the Round of 8 opener at Las Vegas. Byron, however, enters the Phoenix final after a mettlesome Martinsville slog that left both his points cushion and physical state exhausted.

“I don’t know internally that we have a favorite between the two of them,” said Jeff Andrews, Hendrick Motorsports president and general manager. “We’ve been working on both of those race cars equally as hard — really, all four of our cars. But we were counting on going to Phoenix with the 24, so that’s been underway here for a couple weeks, working very hard on both of those cars to take the very best we can. The spring results (at Phoenix) are at this point, they kind of are what they are, you know? We ran good here, too, right, and obviously, we were not where we needed to be today. A lot of things have changed, and a lot of people are running better, and we’re going to have to be a whole lot better than we were today to go compete for a championship next weekend. But I believe in Hendrick Motorsports and the heart and fire in all those people. We’re ready to go.”

Posted on October 29, 2023October 29, 2023 by Zack Albert

MARTINSVILLE, Va. — There was no celebration for Denny Hamlin after 500 hard-fought laps Sunday at Martinsville Speedway, and he wore a familiar shell-shocked look as he leaned against his No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota post-race, the same one he sported after last year’s stunning playoff exit.

There was no immediate celebration for William Byron, either, after he forged through the heat of a long green-flag stretch to the end of Sunday’s Xfinity 500. He exited his No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet and dropped to the pit-road pavement for ice-cold water and a soaked towel, exhausted by the conditions and the intensity of his challenging but ultimately fruitful playoff pursuit.

Byron eked his way into the final spot in the Championship 4 field with a 13th-place outcome in Sunday’s elimination race at the 0.526-mile bullring, edging out third-finishing Denny Hamlin for the title opportunity by a scant eight points in the Cup Series Playoffs standings. Ryan Blaney bulled into the other remaining open berth with a sterling drive of his No. 12 Team Penske Ford to set the final-four postseason grid alongside Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell in next Sunday’s season finale at Phoenix Raceway. Hamlin joined JGR teammate Martin Truex Jr., 23XI Racing’s Tyler Reddick and RFK Racing’s Chris Buescher on the sidelines of title eligibility.

RELATED: Race results | Championship 4 field set

Byron eventually composed himself to savor the moment as he caught his breath sitting on the pit wall, receiving words of congratulations from Hendrick Motorsports vice chairman Jeff Gordon and teammate and fellow title contender Larson — both of whom acknowledged the difficulty of Byron’s Sunday drive.

“Really happy for my team. I can’t state that enough,” said Byron, who will have his first shot at competing for the Cup Series crown next weekend. “With like 50, 60 laps to go, man, I just couldn’t … it was so blurry in the car, and I just wanted to pull in, but you’re not going to do that. I was gonna have a failure do something first. Just really proud of the team. I can’t reiterate that enough. They gave me the opportunity, and this is my dream. I mean, I love to race cars. I didn’t grow up doing it, but I love what I do, and they believe in me.”

Byron entered the Round of 8 finale with a 30-point cushion, and he needed nearly every bit of it to advance. The 25-year-old hotshot leads the Cup Series with six wins this year, but the Martinsville weekend presented a struggle, and he set sail from a subpar 16th starting spot. Emblematically, Byron said he had a fitful night of little sleep on race-day eve, and he arrived at the Virginia short track with his stomach in a pit.

Improvements on his starting perch were modest and measured at best, and Byron missed out on adding any stage points to his buffer on the bubble with placements of 24th and 20th at the breaks.

“It was kind of hell in a bottle,” Byron said. “I’ve never been so mad at a race car. I’ve never wanted to get out so much. I’ve never been so frustrated at the car.”

Alejandro Alvarez | NASCAR Studios

While Blaney and Hamlin controlled large portions of the race up front, Byron was managing his own race further back with a margin that stood at just three points as he became more fatigued. No. 24 crew chief Rudy Fugle kept his driver engaged over the team communications, saying, “These are all spots here,” as he methodically added to his total.

“I mean, just total focus on everything he had and every little bit of energy he had,” Fugle said. “You can see it at the end of the race as he got out of the car. He did everything. He willed us to a win today. So, you know, disappointed and kind of embarrassed on how the car was for him today, but the team stuck with it, and we’ve got a shot next week.

“Certainly not the day the team from a performance perspective on track wanted, but championship-caliber teams at this time of year find a way to get done what they need to get done,” Hendrick Motorsports president and general manager Jeff Andrews told NASCAR.com. “I felt like a whole team from top to bottom under Rudy’s leadership, including William, just dug a little bit deeper today and executed. In these situations where points are so close, just no mistakes. When you know you don’t have the performance necessarily to go up there and lead laps and be competitive as you want to be, you just have to figure out a way to execute the rest of your day flawlessly, and they did that.”

There was no catching Blaney for Hamlin, who ended up on the last step of the podium behind a strategy-aided Aric Almirola, who drove home a season-best second a day after announcing he’d leave his Stewart-Haas Racing team at year’s end. Hamlin had led a race-high 156 laps — just 11 more than Blaney — and finished first and second in the stages to offset the 17-point deficit he started with Sunday and his crippling DNF from last weekend at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

MORE: At-track photos: Martinsville

Hamlin had bettered his playoff chances throughout the day but was 4.140 seconds back of Blaney’s winning car at the checkered flag. “Missed it by eight points,” said No. 11 crew chief Chris Gabehart on the radio during the cool-down lap. “Had a good race, just let ourselves down last week, but the effort was there. Yet another year where we should have made it and didn’t.”

“He definitely had the best car. We were next in line,” Hamlin said of Blaney. “And you know, I just wouldn’t do anything different. There’s nothing I could have done, I feel like, through these playoffs to be any different. And then on a day where we had to have a phenomenal day, we did; it just, it wasn’t quite good enough because we were in such a hole last week.”

Buescher and Reddick did not contend for victory Sunday, with Buescher placing eighth and Reddick faltering to 26th with voltage and cooling issues on his No. 45 Toyota to finish two laps down. Truex was a factor early, but his playoff-hindering trouble arrived in Stage 2.

The regular-season champ started from the pole and led the opening 47 laps, but his solid standing among the top three faded with a pit-road speeding penalty on Lap 219, forcing him to restart 27th. He regained five spots by the end of the second stage, but his No. 19 Toyota fell off the jack during his next stop, further stalling his progress.

A 12th-place finish left him 28 points back of the elimination line.

“You can’t speed on pit road, go to the back here and make it up,” said Truex, who won two poles but has placed no better than ninth (Las Vegas) through the nine playoff races so far. “I feel like we did good for where we got to. Our car was really fast, and we always got to the next guy, just could never pass. So, that one’s on me. I didn’t think we were speeding, but obviously we were. First time we ever had that pit stall, and (crew chief James Small) told me four reds (lights on his tachometer), I’d be safe leaving my box, and I went to two, and we’re speeding, so a little confusion there. But just one of those years. It wasn’t our year. We gave it a hell of an effort. The car was really good today. I think we were good enough to run second or third, but I think Blaney was class of the field, so they earned that one.”

Posted on October 29, 2023October 31, 2023 by Alex Cadavid

The 2023 NASCAR Cup Series championship picture came fully into focus Sunday afternoon in the Round of 8 finale at Martinsville Speedway.

RELATED: Race results

The following four drivers will compete for a NASCAR Cup Series championship next Sunday at Phoenix Raceway (3 p.m. ET, MRN, NBC, Peacock, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App):

1. Ryan Blaney, No. 12 Team Penske Ford
2. Christopher Bell, No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota
3. Kyle Larson, No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet
4. William Byron, No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet

Of the four above, only Larson and Bell entered Sunday’s race at the 0.526-mile short track with their spots in the Championship 4 secured. Larson won the Round of 8 opener at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, followed by Bell, who claimed victory at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Blaney managed to snatch a clutch win in Martinsville, while Byron skated through via points.

With the Cup Series title field now set, we have a full picture of who is racing for a championship crown in the season finale. Here are the other two Championship 4 fields.

2023 NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship 4

Race: Saturday, 7 p.m. ET (USA Network, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio)

1. Sam Mayer, No. 1 JR Motorsports Chevrolet
2.Justin Allgaier, No. 7 JR Motorsports Chevrolet
3. John Hunter Nemechek, No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota
4. Cole Custer, No. 00 Stweart-Haas Racing Ford

2023 NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Championship 4

Race: Friday, 10 p.m. ET (FS1, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio)

1. Corey Heim, No. 11 Tricon Garage Toyota
2. Carson Hocevar, No. 42 Niece Motorsports Chevrolet
3. Ben Rhodes, No. 99 ThorSport Racing Ford
4. Grant Enfinger, No. 23 GMS Racing Chevrolet

Posted on October 29, 2023October 29, 2023 by Reid Spencer

MARTINSVILLE, Va. – Ryan Blaney did what Denny Hamlin couldn’t do in Sunday’s Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway.

As a result, Blaney will race for the NASCAR Cup Series championship next Sunday at Phoenix Raceway (3:30 p.m. ET, NBC, MRN, Peacock, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), and Hamlin exits the playoffs after a hard-luck Round of 8.

During a 168-lap green-flag run to the finish, Blaney tracked down Aric Almirola and passed him for the lead on Lap 478 of 500. Twenty-two laps later, Blaney took the checkered flag 0.899 seconds ahead of Almirola to earn advancement to the Championship 4 race.

Blaney joins fellow Round of 8 winners Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell in the race for the title, along with William Byron, who fought an ill-handling car all day but edged Hamlin for the final playoff spot by eight points after finishing 13th.

SHOP: Winner’s gear

Hamlin came home third, 4.149 seconds behind the race winner.

Chris Buescher, Martin Truex Jr. and Tyler Reddick joined Hamlin on the sidelines after finishing eighth, 12th and 26th, respectively.

The victory was Blaney’s third of the season, his first at Martinsville, and the 10th of his career, and it propelled him into the Championship 4 for the first time. Blaney aced the Round of 8 with a sixth-place finish at Las Vegas, a runner-up result at Homestead and a win at Martinsville.

“Well, I mean, felt like we put together really strong playoffs—especially the Round of 8… we had a good run in the whole Round of 8,” Blaney said. “Yeah, just overall really proud of the whole effort. RP (Team Penske owner Roger Penske) couldn’t be here, unfortunately, but I know he’s watching. This is awesome. Can’t wait to get to Phoenix next week.”

In front of a sold-out crowd at the .526-mile short track, Blaney earned the grandfather clock trophy he has long coveted.

“I grew up in High Point, not too far from here,” Blaney said. “Really cool. Wanting to win here for a long time. Been super close for many years. Awesome to close it out.”

Hamlin won the 130-lap first stage, finished second to Blaney in Stage 2 and was in position to advance to the title race until the race turned under caution for Michael McDowell’s spin in Turn 2 on Lap 323. Blaney pitted from the lead, with Hamlin behind.

But 10 cars stayed on the track under the yellow, among them Almirola and Chase Elliott, who led 77 consecutive laps before Almirola passed him for the top spot on Lap 412. On newer tires, Blaney was able to work his way through traffic and take the lead, where Hamlin could only advance to third.

Hamlin entered the race 17 points below the cutoff for the final round because of a power steering failure that cost him dearly at Homestead the week before.

“The mechanical failure last week with the power steering, that sealed our fate,” said the driver of the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota, who led a race-high 156 laps to Blaney’s 145. “Really proud of this whole FedEx Toyota team for showing up today when we really needed to, having probably a mid-50-point day. They did great. They did absolutely great.

“The 12 car (Blaney) was the best car today, so congrats to them—all the final four that made it. It’s going to be great. Hate we’re not in it. Definitely, I was happy with the performance we had today. Really all-around.

“Just in the Round of 8, you can’t have one bad week. Unfortunately, mechanical failure takes us from running really well to in the 30s. That’s it.”

Truex, the regular-season champion, led the first 47 laps from the pole, but a pit-road speeding penalty on Lap 219 mired him in traffic, a circumstance he couldn’t overcome.

“I felt like we did really good to get back to where we did,” Truex said. “You just burn the tires off so much worse back there in the hot, dirty track, dirty air. You’re in more rubber. It’s just a dogfight.

“I don’t know. We gave it a hell of an effort. I felt like we had a really strong car. I don’t think we could have beaten the 12 (Blaney). He was really, really strong. We were definitely close.”

When Hamlin or Truex led the race, Byron was out of the Championship 4 as they ran. But the driver of the No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet held onto the final berth with a determined effort over the final green-flag run. Byron was 13th at the finish, the first driver one lap down.

“Obviously we were not very good,” Byron said. “Our worst race of the year. These guys deserve it so much. They work so hard. Honestly, probably with 50 to go I felt really, really bad. I just had to drive the hell out of it. The guys stuck with me, they kept motivating me through little bits and pieces, just kind of keeping my mind straight.”

“I’m just really thankful for them. It was just, yeah, a slugfest. Everyone raced me good there at the end. Congrats to Ryan. I was really happy for him… but, man, we just had to hang on. Just had to dig a little bit deeper.

“I knew when I got out of the car I was just beat. But the result means more than anything. These guys work so hard. We’ve worked so hard all season. I’m just really proud of them.”

Chase Briscoe and Joey Logano finished fourth and fifth. Larson, Bell, Buescher, Austin Cindric and Todd Gilliland completed the top 10.

Note: Post-race inspection in the Cup Series garage concluded without issue, confirming Blaney as the race winner.

Posted on October 29, 2023October 29, 2023 by Staff Report

The last two race winners at Martinsville Speedway are also the first two drivers who made it into this year’s Championship 4. So don’t be surprised if Sunday’s Xfinity 500 in Virginia acts as an appetizer for the Kyle Larson-Christopher Bell main course one week later at Phoenix Raceway.

PLAYOFFS: Playoffs hub page | Fantasy Live

Not only did Larson win the Martinsville race in the spring, but he also was the runner-up to Bell last fall in the classic that saw Ross Chastain ride the wall in desperation to the next round. Of course, for Bell, that fall Martinsville race was his second straight win in an elimination race, following up the one he had at the Charlotte Motor Speedway road course.

It was then that Bell’s reputation for coming through with pressure-packed wins started to build momentum, and it’s something that has carried over to this season and last week at Homestead-Miami Speedway. The No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota driver showed remarkable resiliency, rebounding from 22nd place after Stage 2 to make it to Victory Lane and earning a ticket to Phoenix.

In the Next Gen car, Larson and Bell rank second and third, respectively, in points scored on short tracks, further proof that they could spoil the other playoff contenders’ chances of a Championship 4-clinching win on Sunday. Can anyone stop the dynamic dirt-track duo? Let’s find out by diving into the numbers of some of the other playoff drivers.

PLAYOFF PICTURE

DENNY HAMLIN: Hamlin’s playoff fortunes took a harsh turn last week when his steering went out late in the race, relegating him to a 30th-place finish and a spot 17 points beneath the elimination line. But he’s the only driver who has scored more points than Larson and Bell on short tracks in the Next Gen car era with 167.

RYAN BLANEY: Blaney made an improbable 27-point turnaround in the standings with his second-place run at Homestead. He now sits 10 points above the elimination line and oh-so-close to his first Championship 4 appearance. Also going for him is the fact he has the best average finish at Martinsville among active drivers at 9.5.

MARTIN TRUEX JR.: Minutes after Hamlin’s mishap, Truex Jr.’s engine blew up, and so went his hopes of being in a safe position entering Martinsville. Like Hamlin, the Regular Season Champ is also in a 17-point hole and hoping to recapture past glory at Martinsville, where he’s won three times. MTJ’s weekend got off to a great start with him qualifying on the pole.

TYLER REDDICK: Simply put, he’s going to need to pull an upset to overcome a 10-point hole and a short-track history that includes only one top-10 finish in seven Martinsville starts. It did not help matters that he qualified 19th on Saturday, the worst of all playoff drivers.

CHRIS BUESCHER: It’s win-or-go-home for Buescher, who is 43 points below the elimination line after Homestead. The thing is, he could do just that as he’s won two of the last six short-track races. He’ll have to come from the 18th starting position, however, to pull off the desperation win.

Projections as of Sunday, Oct. 29:

RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR THE XFINITY 500

Racing Insights’ advanced statistical formula includes current track, current track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to arrive at a projected winner and full race results.

Finish	Car Number	Driver
1	5	Kyle Larson
2	11	Denny Hamlin
3	20	Christopher Bell
4	24	William Byron
5	12	Ryan Blaney
6	4	Kevin Harvick
7	9	Chase Elliott
8	22	Joey Logano
9	6	Brad Keselowski
10	17	Chris Buescher
11	19	Martin Truex Jr.
12	23	Bubba Wallace
13	1	Ross Chastain
14	54	Ty Gibbs
15	14	Chase Briscoe
16	45	Tyler Reddick
17	10	Aric Almirola
18	48	Alex Bowman
19	41	Ryan Preece
20	8	Kyle Busch
21	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
22	99	Daniel Suárez
23	34	Michael McDowell
24	3	Austin Dillon
25	42	Carson Hocevar
26	43	Erik Jones
27	16	AJ Allmendinger
28	38	Todd Gilliland
29	7	Corey LaJoie
30	2	Austin Cindric
31	31	Justin Haley
32	21	Harrison Burton
33	77	Ty Dillon
34	51	Ryan Newman
35	78	BJ McLeod
36	15	J.J. Yeley

Posted on October 28, 2023October 29, 2023 by Zack Albert

MARTINSVILLE, Va. — Austin Hill’s long walk to the infield care center after a last-lap crash in overtime at Martinsville Speedway included a swipe at a soon-to-be-former teammate. Hill directed mock applause at the pit box for the No. 2 Richard Childress Racing team of lame-duck driver Sheldon Creed. The response from No. 2 crew chief Jeff Stankiewicz was an arms-up shrug, adding “we’re not driving the car, Austin.”

The on-track tension between the friends-turned-rivals rose to a boil in Saturday’s NASCAR Xfinity Series Playoffs race with a slam-bang finish that left fans wondering which RCR driver would make the Championship 4 field. In the end, neither one did. Their repeated fender-bashing erupted into a melee in sight of the checkered flag, allowing JR Motorsports veteran Justin Allgaier to scoot through and edge Creed by a fender in the Dead On Tools 250 for the final title-shot berth.

RELATED: Race results | Weekend schedule

Hill did not make it to the finish after his No. 21 Chevrolet’s radiator busted from contact in the final set of corners. He wound up seven points short of advancing, a deficit that allowed Cole Custer to land the final spot in the title-eligible quartet for the Nov. 4 finale at Phoenix Raceway. Allgaier and Custer will join Sam Mayer and John Hunter Nemechek in the championship fight.

Hill was checked and released from the care center after his long walk, and his thought was good riddance.

“I know Sheldon has to win to get in, but I mean, at least give me a chance,” said Hill, noting Creed’s 65-point gap entering the event. “I didn’t feel like I was given a chance, and then when he got shoved up the race track or whatever happened — I haven’t seen the replay getting into (turn) three — but whenever he went up the race track, he just parked it in the center of the corner and blew the radiator out of it. So I had no power coming off of (turn) four and that’s why I wrecked. I cannot wait for him to get out of RCR. Can’t wait to have Jesse Love as a teammate. Maybe he’ll work better with me.”

Alejandro Alvarez | NASCAR Studios

Creed announced Oct. 11 that he would not return to the No. 2 Chevy after two seasons with the Richard Childress-owned organization. As he leaned against his car post-race, Creed was approached by Andy Petree, RCR’s vice president of competition, who delivered a scathing review of his late-race tactics. That assessment was shared by Childress himself, who told NBC Sports’ Dustin Long, “I’ve had drivers drive for me before but nobody as stupid as Sheldon Creed. You don’t do that as a team player. What else do you want me to tell you?”

Creed’s battered car was just 0.032 seconds shy of a clinching win, which would have been an Xfinity Series first.

“He was just mad at how I raced the 21, but the roles reverse, they don’t say anything,” Creed said of Petree’s tirade. “That’s probably part of the reason I’m leaving. Obviously, they’re going to be mad, but I felt like I got him up off the bottom (lane) and I gave him a chance to finish second or third.”

He added: “I beat him into (turn) one on the restart. He spun the tires and hit the rev limiter. And then he doors me in the middle of (turns) one and two to keep me even with him. I feel like gloves are off after that, right? I’m trying to play nice but yeah, he kind of opened the door for us to get a little rougher.”

MORE: Allgaier opens up on RCR battle | At-track photos

The two had a run-in during the Xfinity regular-season finale at Bristol Motor Speedway, a collision where Hill got the short end. So there’s some history to the feud.

“He just drives over his head. He always has,” Hill said. “Back in the truck days he did. We became buddies last year and we became buddies this year and all, and it’s just uncalled for. I know he’s trying to win the race, obviously, and the problem is, I kind of felt like I was in a position where I needed to win the race because if he won, I thought that it might possibly knock me out. Because I didn’t know where Custer was; I just knew that I had to be like five spots in front of Custer. So yeah, it’s just frustrating. I mean, nothing I can really say. Everyone on this 21 team needs to hold their head up, though, going to Phoenix. We fought really hard this year. Should be in the final four just as much as the final four that’s in it.”

Rough play between teammates was the theme of the Round of 8 finale at Martinsville for the second consecutive season, on the heels of Ty Gibbs shoving aside the departing Brandon Jones in an in-house clash under the Joe Gibbs Racing banner. In that case, the younger Gibbs went on to claim the title at Phoenix. Neither Childress driver will get the opportunity this year.

Nemechek clinched after Stage 2, building on his solid points buffer to secure his spot. A victory the previous weekend at Homestead-Miami Speedway propelled Mayer into Phoenix with a shot at the title. Besides Hill and Creed on the elimination block were Sammy Smith and Chandler Smith, no relation, both of whom entered Martinsville in must-win scenarios.

Chandler Smith’s next-to-last drive with Kaulig Racing ended early as his crunched and overheating No. 16 Chevrolet gave out after 187 of the 256 laps. “Just Martinsville stuff,” he said of the full-contact racing, a Saturday afternoon statement that held true for many.

Posted on October 28, 2023October 28, 2023 by Reid Spencer

MARTINSVILLE, Va. – At the end of Saturday’s chaotic Dead on Tools 250, Justin Allgaier rescued his season with an improbable victory that earned the driver of the No. 7 JR Motorsports Chevrolet a berth in the Nov. 4 NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship 4 event at Phoenix Raceway.

Allgaier’s Camaro crossed the finish line glued to the side of Sheldon Creed’s No. 2 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet, scoring his first win at Martinsville, his fourth of the season and the 23rd of his career by 0.032 seconds over Creed, who needed a victory to advance to the title race.

RELATED: Race results | At-track photos

Allgaier joins Sam Mayer, John Hunter Nemechek and Cole Custer in the battle for the Xfinity Series crown at Phoenix Raceway next Saturday (7 p.m. ET, USA, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App).

Repeated contact between Creed’s car and the Chevrolet of teammate Austin Hill during two overtime laps eventually victimized Hill, the regular-season champion, in a chain-reaction wreck in the final corner and deprived Hill of a chance to race for the championship next weekend.

Before the final restart, Allgaier’s chances of qualifying for the title race had dimmed, as both Hill, the race leader at the time, and Cole Custer (seventh for the restart) had control of the final two Championship 4 spots.

Though Custer was collected in the last-lap wreck, which produced the 16th caution of the race, he was credited with a 19th-place finish to Hill’s 21st and bumped the RCR driver out of the Playoffs by seven points.

But no one benefited from the closing mayhem more than Allgaier, who got repeated encouragement from spotter Eddie D’Hondt and crew chief Jim Pohlman during the late stages of the race.

“Both of those guys kept telling me, ‘It’s not over,’” Allgaier said. “Coming to the start/finish line, I don’t think I saw a single person sitting down. I was just hanging on… This car has been lights-out fast all year.

“We’ve got a shot at going for a championship at Phoenix. This is an emotional one. I’ve wanted to win at Martinsville for a long time, and I’ve been on the other end of that (pointing at the crashed cars on the frontstretch) too many times.”

The overtime restart was a recipe for disaster. Hill had lane choice and picked the bottom, with Creed lined up to his outside. Hill initially cleared Creed’s Chevrolet, but the driver of the No. 2 Chevy used his bumper to force Hill up the track and draw alongside.

As the cars ran through Turns 3 and 4 for the final time, John Hunter Nemechek turned Hill’s Camaro and ignited the last-lap wreck that ultimately settled the field for the Championship 4.

Creed, who is leaving RCR at the end of the season, was subdued but unapologetic.

“I’m not proud of racing like that, but I didn’t blast him,” Creed said. “He was still with me (on the final lap)… I feel like I raced pretty fair for the situation, and he’s going to be mad, but it’s for a Championship 4 spot, and I’m going to fight for my guys all the way to the end.”

As might be expected, Hill had a different view of the final two laps.

“Man, it’s uncalled for for that to happen, and then for neither of the RCR guys to make it to the final four,” Hill said. “It’s frustrating. I’m pretty excited for him to go to his next adventure over at Gibbs, and I don’t have to put up with him anymore.”

(Hill may have anticipated Creed’s next move, which is yet to be announced.)

Pole winner Sammy Smith, another driver in a must-win situation to continue in the Playoffs, led 147 of the 256 laps and finished third. But Smith also left Martinsville with a grudge against a teammate—John Hunter Nemechek, who had clinched a Championship 4 berth on points by the end of the second stage.

In Smith’s view, Nemechek made it impossible for him to fight for the win in overtime.

“They were telling me that he wasn’t going to make any enemies,” Smith said. “I asked him if he was going to choose the top, and he said he wasn’t going to do that. I had a good run on him, and he went to block me down to the bottom.

“He didn’t want to make any enemies, but I’m really frustrated right now. He definitely made one. I’m not going to let that one go, and we will see how things go.”

In a race that started in daylight and ended under a full moon after a 28-minute stoppage to clear the track after a 12-car wreck on Lap 244, Riley Herbst ran fourth, followed by Josh Berry and Daniel Hemric.

Parker Retzlaff, Anthony Alfredo, Jeb Burton and Parker Kligerman completed the top 10.

Sam Mayer, already part of the Championship 4 by virtue of last week’s victory at Homestead, was knocked out of the race in the Lap 244 wreck and finished 25th. Playoff driver Chandler Smith completed 187 laps before being sidelined by an accident and eliminated from the postseason.

Note: Post-race inspection in the Xfinity Series garage concluded with no issues, confirming Allgaier as the race winner.

Contributing: Staff reports

Posted on October 28, 2023October 29, 2023 by Zack Albert

MARTINSVILLE, Va. – Twenty seconds and change. Every qualifier for Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series race at tricky Martinsville Speedway posted a lap in that amount of time.

The difference in small shreds of seconds during Saturday’s qualifying session meant a precious plenty for the remaining Cup Series Playoffs hopefuls still hoping to clinch a spot in next week’s championship round. Some left smiling, others left frustrated, and most were sweating it – either based on the unseasonably warm temperatures or the mounting pressure.

Sunday’s Xfinity 500 (2 p.m. ET, NBC, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App) will determine the two remaining spots in the Championship 4 field for next weekend’s season finale at Phoenix Raceway. Only Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell — established winners in this Round of 8 — have sealed their berths in the final four, leaving only room for a pair of drivers to advance either by points or by a win in Sunday’s 500-lapper. Four will be eliminated.

The dominant topics on the eve of the race were qualifying and how it can affect strategy; the unusually searing weather and how it might alter track conditions and grip; and just how far drivers might go to deliver a Championship 4 slot, knowing that the desperation “Hail Melon” move that Ross Chastain invented in this race last year — since outlawed – isn’t an option.

Time trials, however, left the remaining six drivers in the postseason hunt with a mixed lot. Martin Truex Jr. and the No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing team — who have struggled to get much to go their way during the playoffs after claiming the Regular Season Championship — put their mark on the day by scoring the Busch Light Pole for the second consecutive week.

Truex will start from the No. 1 spot on the grid, putting him in prime position to control the early going and potentially gather stage points that might help him erase his 17-point deficit relative to the provisional elimination line. A victory would make the math a moot point and would provide a needed boost after he eked his way through the postseason’s earlier rounds.

“We’ve been living on the edge, that’s for sure,” Truex said. “We barely made it through the first two rounds, so that’s been tough for sure — but tomorrow is a new day and a new opportunity. We are in a position where I think we can go and win the race, and we will see what happens. I try not to overthink it – just go out and race, and that is my plan for tomorrow.”

Three JGR drivers were among the top four qualifiers, and Denny Hamlin — also 17 points back of the elimination line — sealed the fourth spot on the grid despite a small dose of left-front tire lockup during his run. Larson (starting fifth) and Bell (seventh) were the only other playoff drivers among the top 10.

Jonathan Bachman | Getty Images

The rest of the Phoenix hopefuls were in the next 10 after missing the final round of qualifying: Ryan Blaney 11th, William Byron 16th, Chris Buescher 18th and Tyler Reddick rounding the group out in 19th. Byron, a former Martinsville winner, was flustered in the moments just after his qualifying effort but acknowledged that the mood could change for Sunday.

“I think eventually you’ve got to get over qualifying,” said Byron, who sits plus-30 on the playoff bubble. “I just came off the track, so it … eventually, you have to think about the task tomorrow and what the race is going to be like, and we’re gonna have some work to do.”

Asked if stage points were an achievable goal from the 16th starting spot, Byron was direct: “They’ll have to be, yeah.”

MORE: Playoff standings | At-track photos: Martinsville

Reddick’s fall to a midpack start was more dramatic. The 27-year-old driver overheated his Turn 1 entry on his second timed lap and looped the No. 45 23XI Racing Toyota through Turn 2. He enters Sunday’s race minus-10 to the cut, and he’ll fire off from Row 10.

“Certainly, gonna change the strategy. We’re going to need to get some track position back the first chance we get,” No. 45 crew chief Billy Scott told NASCAR.com. “The spin, in particular, was just him trying to get something different out of it because Lap 1 didn’t work, and he knew what he had there for balance and what the approach was. You’re just trying to get more out of it, so that’s just a one-off deal.”

A near carbon-copy of Saturday’s weather is expected for Sunday’s main event, with temperatures creeping into the low 80s. Martinsville’s annual autumn date traditionally comes with the backdrop of changing leaves and a frost-on-the-pumpkin chill. The fall foliage is indeed near its peak on the southern Virginia hillsides this weekend, but the balmy conditions have thrown the field a curve.

“It’s crazy that we’re almost in November, and it’s still this hot. I think a couple of years ago it was snowing this weekend,” Larson said. “So yeah, it’s crazy. It feels like the middle of summer — maybe locals might argue that – but yeah, it’s hot out there, and I think it will hopefully make for a little bit better race tomorrow. Maybe you’ll see a little bit more tire fall-off and rubber laid down on the track. Us drivers, I think, always like the hotter temps, even though we may suffer a little bit more in the car. I think for the racing, it’s usually better.”