CONCORD, N.C. – Justin Allgaier’s shrug and smile did a lot of the heavy lifting in telling his feeling after a slugfest of a race with fellow JR Motorsports ace Josh Berry. The two teammates were 1A and 1B for much of Saturday afternoon at Charlotte Motor Speedway, and their intrateam battle turned physical at times in the Alsco Uniforms 300.
Allgaier took the short end of their final-stage clash, getting his No. 7 Chevrolet loose in Turn 1 with 15 laps remaining and allowing Berry’s No. 8 Chevy to scrape by. By that time, the lead pair had a 15-plus second gap on the third-place runner. Berry waltzed to an 18-second margin of victory over runner-up Ty Gibbs. Allgaier stopped for tires after his wall contact but still held for seventh place as the first driver one lap down.
Their battle was validation of the current speed level of JR Motorsports, but also a referendum on the gloves-off nature of racing within the organization and where the line in the sand is marked. With their performance near-equal and optimal, Berry and Allgaier have had a habit of being in close quarters in recent weeks. Saturday was the latest chapter.
“Every week, it just seems like we’re battling amongst ourselves,” Allgaier said from pit road post-race. “It may not even be for the win, but whether it be for fifth or second or 10th — whatever it is — we race each other really hard and we race each other a lot. So it can be difficult at times. I mean, obviously knowing where that line is, it’s always the difficult part, but on the other side of it, I think you race each other aggressively but trying not to wreck each other and battle it out for the win.
“Like I said, the worst thing we could do is come here with four extremely fast Camaros and not one of us win it, right? So we did the best job we could today, and we came up a little bit short but obviously as a company, we still got the victory.”
Allgaier led 63 laps, second only to Berry’s race-high 89. Only three other drivers led laps Saturday, and JRM’s Noah Gragson and Sam Mayer were among them.
Allgaier apologized to his crew with 10 laps remaining after his fate was cast: “That’s a heck of a way to lose one right there, boys. I’m sorry.” But No. 7 crew chief Jason Burdett said there was consolation to be found in how well the team ran.
“As an organization, I don’t know, I mean, we can’t ask for much more out of either of those guys,” Burdett told NASCAR.com. “With 20 to go, we’re 15 seconds ahead of third and they’re both racing as hard as they can go. Now, unfortunately, we got the fence, which ultimately ruined a second-place finish but it’s fun.
“I think they asked me during the race about battling with the 8 and teammates all the time. It makes it harder because you know it goes both ways. You want them to give you a little; they want you to give you a little, because your teammates — this, that, whatever – but at the end of the day, man, all four of us have been really good for the last couple of months, and that’s a lot of fun. And it keeps pushing everybody to be better every week.”
Few have been recently better than JRM, which has won four of the last five Xfinity Series races. Berry (Charlotte, Dover Motor Speedway) has accounted for a pair of those, and Allgaier added a tally to that stretch at Darlington Raceway.
The tour returns next Saturday at the Portland, Oregon, road course, and the odds Berry and Allgaier are racing in close confines are better than average. In any event, Berry said an underlying sense of respect permeated their near-weekly heat-of-the-moment battles.
“I mean, it’s tough, right? Like, the reality of it is, our cars are phenomenal right now,” he said. “And there’s five of us in the top seven, eight, whatever it is. We’re gonna have to race each other and more times than not, Justin and I seem to find each other racing for these wins. It was intense, but I respect Justin. He’s a very underrated race-car driver. He’s very good, and right now, the reality of it is that we’re pushing each other to get better every week. And that was a tough battle for sure. But it came down to it that, who was going to slip and luckily I didn’t.”
CONCORD, N.C. — When Josh Berry crossed the finish line at Charlotte Motor Speedway — giving JR Motorsports its first NASCAR Xfinity Series win at its home track — second-place Ty Gibbs was just reaching the 200-foot-long Speedway TV screen television on the backstretch.
After JRM teammate Justin Allgaier scraped the outside wall for the second time and had to pit during the final 81-lap green-flag run, Berry won Saturday’s Alsco Uniforms 300 by an astonishing 18.039 seconds over Gibbs.
But the race wasn’t that lopsided before Allgaier had to bring his No. 7 Chevrolet to pit road on Lap 185 of 200.
True, Berry and Allgaier were racing in a different zip code from the rest of the field, but their battle was intense until Allgaier nicked the wall on Lap 177 and hit the Turn 2 barrier even harder eight laps later.
With Allgaier out of the picture, Berry enjoyed a pleasure cruise for the remaining 15 laps and finished three-quarters of a mile ahead of Gibbs.
“Man, it’s so amazing,” Berry said. “This car was so good. (Crew chief) Mike (Bumgarner) and this whole group works so hard. We’ve been getting better every week. I think the sky is the limit as we continue to learn about each other and keep getting better.
“That was a battle with Justin. It always is with us. We always seem to run good at the same places and always have to race each other. He slipped up in (Turn) 1 — and I got loose, too, and it all worked out.”
In fact, JR Motorsports, co-owned by NASCAR Hall of Famer Dale Earnhardt Jr., enjoyed another banner day from green flag to checkered flag. Sam Mayer started from the pole position and finished third. Berry won the first stage and Allgaier the second, giving JRM its 10th consecutive stage victory — extending the series record established last week at Kansas Speedway.
Five drivers led laps Saturday — four of them from JRM. Berry led a race-high 89 circuits, followed by 63 for Allgaier, 36 for Noah Gragson and two for Mayer. Gragson dropped off the lead lap with a cylinder down, but with power seemingly restored, he recovered to finish fourth.
Berry won for the second time this season and the fourth time in his career. JRM has won four of the last five Xfinity Series races.
“I think everybody knew that this was going to be a good benchmark for our organization, and I think I speak for everybody in saying that we exceeded expectations,” Berry said.
Ryan Preece came home fifth in the top Ford, with Daniel Hemric, Allgaier, Sheldon Creed, Trevor Bayne and Myatt Snider completing the top 10.
Allgaier had the lead on Lap 163 after a full cycle of green-flag pit stops, and he held it until Berry beat him to the stripe by 0.022 seconds on Lap 176. Allgaier regained the top spot on Lap 177 but scraped the wall for the first time a lap later.
“We tried to put on a show for the fans,” Allgaier said. “I don’t know if you can drive any harder. At one point we were literally barreling off into Turn 1 harder than we did in qualifying.
“I thought we were going to be OK there and battle it out again (after the first contact with the wall), but unfortunately, my right rear started to go flat.”
NOTE: There were no major issues in the NASCAR Xfinity Series garage found during post-race inspection, confirming Berry as the winner. The No. 44 of Ryan Ellis had one lug nut not safe and secure, usually resulting in a fine to the crew chief next week.
CONCORD, N.C. — Carson Hocevar exited his No. 42 Chevrolet in a rush. His next moves were several demonstrative gestures, body language that told his anguish in a series of slumps against his truck’s side, a head-down show of exasperation on the roof, and consolation embraces with his Niece Motorsports crew.
That Friday night scene from Charlotte Motor Speedway was part of the flood of emotion from another flirtation with his first NASCAR Camping World Truck Series victory. Rinse and repeat from Darlington, from Bristol’s dirt – two other recent close brushes for the 19-year-old, who wound up 16th in the North Carolina Education Lottery 200.
“It hurts,” Hocevar said later, after congratulating victorious teammate Ross Chastain. “I mean, the last few times, we haven’t been the best truck. Today it was like unheard of to be that good.”
Just a few pit stalls ahead, the emotional outpouring had a different tone altogether, though just as emphatic. Ryan Preece, the versatile 31-year-old veteran, was livid, directing his angst toward the youngster who had just knocked them both from contention on the next-to-last restart.
Preece stomped off, invoking the name of the Modified Tour legends that he grew up idolizing and later racing against for comparison’s sake.
“He needs to learn how to race,” Preece told MRN Radio. He wound up 11th in a damaged No. 17 Ford. “I mean, there’s one thing, I’ve raced with a lot of great race car drivers, Mike Stefanik, Ted Christopher, Reggie Ruggiero — all these guys — and if you drove like that, they kicked your ass. So it’s … no one’s teaching these kids, but somebody needs to and it’s eventually going to be me.”
By then, Hocevar had already shouldered the blame for washing up into Preece’s truck twice – once at the exit of Turn 2 and again through Turns 3 and 4 to push the race into double overtime on Lap 135. Little consolation for Preece, who is running a national-series tripleheader this weekend.
“He makes a lot of mistakes. I watch it week in and week out,” Preece said. “It’s a mistake when you learn the first time. It’s not a mistake when you continually do it over and over again. It’s called a bad habit.”
Chastain, for his part, said that Hocevar deserved to win. The teenager led a race-best 57 laps. His misfortune cleared the way for Chastain, who led just four, and left a lingering bad taste. Even then, Hocevar stood at the back of his Niece Motorsports hauler and took pictures with his phone to better remember the moment, even as he defended himself from Preece’s criticisms.
“I mean, I crashed him,” Hocevar said. “I mean, if he wants to high praise of young drivers with no respect, I mean, I just spanked his ass. I waxed him. He was the next best, but I put it to him. I mean, I messed up. I made a mistake. I obviously wasn’t gonna try and crash myself and obviously crash him. I just tried to use them up a little bit but not even like to door him because you crash when you door each other. …
“I somewhat heard what he was saying on MRN, and he has every right to be mad and say what he wants, but I don’t agree with it. I think it’s just hard racing on old tires, and I made a mistake and it cost both of us. It’s just is what it is. I’m not gonna go talk.”
Preece had no plans for that, either. “(Expletive) no,” he said in a final blister on the Motor Racing Network’s air.
CONCORD, N.C. – When fate dealt Carson Hocevar another heartache Friday night at Charlotte Motor Speedway, Niece Motorsports teammate Ross Chastain took full advantage — with a serendipitous push from Grant Enfinger.
On the final lap of the second overtime in the North Carolina Education Lottery 200 NASCAR Camping World Truck Series contest, Chastain raced side-by-side on the backstretch with John Hunter Nemechek, before the timely push from Enfinger propelled him forward and enabled him to clear Nemechek’s No. 4 Toyota.
Chastain crossed the finish line 0.102 seconds ahead of Enfinger, with Nemechek running third, 0.413 seconds behind the race winner.
When he climbed out of his No. 41 Chevrolet on the frontstretch, however, Chastain could talk only of Hocevar, who dominated the event, only to see it slip away after a devastating late caution.
“I hate it so much for Carson,” said Chastain, who won for the first time this season, the first time at Charlotte and the fourth time in his career. “I didn’t give him the push he needed to win (on the first attempt at overtime)… Man, I’m so proud of Carson Hocevar.
“I’ll say that over and over. That guy’s a future star. He’s such a goofy kid, but I love him. He learns so quick.”
Hocevar, who lost the lead four laps short of the scheduled finish and ran second at Bristol Motor Speedway’s dirt track in April, learned a painful lesson Friday after leading a race-high 57 laps.
He held an advantage that had stabilized at slightly more than six seconds when Jesse Little’s Chevrolet broke loose over the bumps in Turn 3 and carried Tyler Ankrum’s Toyota into the outside wall.
The 19-year-old Hocevar chose the inside lane for the late restart, and Ryan Preece, in the outside lane, nosed ahead past the start-finish line when Chastain spun his tires and failed to provide Hocevar with a push.
Running beside Preece on Lap 136 in the first attempt at overtime, Hocevar lost control and slid up the track into Preece’s No. 17 Ford, damaging both vehicles.
“A dumbass move by myself,” said Hocevar, who climbed from his No. 42 Chevrolet after the race and sat on the pavement, his head between his hands. “It sucks. I mean I tried really hard — I tried too hard.
“I didn’t get a good restart. I tried too hard, tried to wash (Preece) up and just crashed myself. I feel like just crying.”
Preece finished 11th after pitting with a flat tire — thanks to the wreck. He didn’t mince words on pit lane.
“Don’t wreck the guy on the outside of you trying to win your first race,” Preece said. “Don’t do it.”
After finishing second, Enfinger believes he has an IOU from Chastain.
“I’m glad to push my buddy, Ross, to a win,” Enfinger said. “In my book, he owes me one.”
Christian Eckes ran fourth, followed by Zane Smith, who led 52 laps and won the first stage. Tanner Gray, Kyle Busch, Chandler Smith, Stewart Friesen and Ben Rhodes completed the top 10.
Rhodes won Stage 2 by staying out on old tires and catching an opportune caution when Matt Mills crashed with Jack Wood in Turn 4 three laps short of the send of the 30-lap stage.
Ultimately, Hocevar came home 16th, the last driver on the lead lap. Mexican driver Max Gutierrez finished 26th in his NASCAR Camping World Truck Series debut.
The Truck Series returns to Worldwide Technology Raceway at Gateway next Saturday at 1:30 p.m. on FS1.
NOTE: There were no issues found in NASCAR’s post-race inspection, confirming Chastain as the Camping World Truck Series winner.
SPEEDWAY, Ind. — From a series of satellite television interviews and small-town Indiana radio reports to a press conference that seemed to magnetically draw the entire room of reporters to him, Jimmie Johnson made the media rounds at Indianapolis Motor Speedway on Thursday with that same smile and easy air about him that characterized his storied NASCAR career.
All that remains is Saturday’s traditional public driver meeting and “500 Parade” through downtown Indianapolis before Johnson straps into his No. 48 Chip Ganassi Racing Honda to make his Indianapolis 500 debut — the seven-time NASCAR Cup Series champion now an Indy 500 rookie.
He is that rare rookie, however, that by so many accounts is a legitimate Indy 500 race favorite — a designation he’s proudly embraced and also made good on countless times in his legendary NASCAR career from 2002-2019.
James Black | Penske Entertainment
“I do really believe he’s got a genuine shot at winning because he’s got so much experience on ovals and in long races,” said two-time Indianapolis 500 champion Juan Pablo Montoya, who raced against Johnson in the NASCAR Cup Series, too.
“He knows how to go through the good and the bad in a long race, and other people just don’t. And he’s got a good car. Right now, you have to say the good cars, based on speed, are the Ganassi cars and he’s one of them.”
“I know Jimmie and I’m pretty sure he’s going to be there [at the end].”
For NASCAR fans — from those who celebrated his 83 wins to those who complained he won too much — the 46-year-old Johnson’s presence and the high expectations he’s earned this month have made his high-profile Indy attempt a significant historical time in the sport.
Many of his former NASCAR teammates and competitors say they will be watching the Indy 500 a little more intently, even as they prepare to top off the Memorial Day race weekend with NASCAR’s famed Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway (6 p.m. ET, FOX, PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).
“On top of being extraordinarily talented, Jimmie is highly adaptable,” Johnson’s NASCAR team owner Rick Hendrick said. “I’ve always said that he’s like having a computer behind the wheel. He analyzes everything. It’s a constant process of learning and adjusting until all of a sudden it clicks, and you can’t beat him.
“We’ve seen Jimmie do it time and again, and I think the approach combined with the mentality of a champion is why he’ll be successful at whatever he sets his mind to.
“The transition [from NASCAR to IndyCar] … has proven to be a monumental challenge for the best drivers in the world, but Jimmie is wired differently than most. He certainly doesn’t have anything to prove, but I believe he’ll open a lot of eyes. And I can’t wait to watch him do it.”
Joe Skibinski | Penske Entertainment
A SPECIAL GUEST APPEARANCE
The man who led Johnson’s seven title runs as a crew chief at Hendrick Motorsports, Chad Knaus, will be trackside for his very first Indy 500 this weekend; a special guest of Johnson and his wife Chandra. And not surprisingly, he agrees with Hendrick’s high expectations.
“I’m proud to have the opportunity to be there and really proud and excited to see him compete,” said Knaus, now Hendrick’s vice president of competition.
“In my opinion, he showed his value on ovals at Texas — and that was his first oval race — and I think he has a legitimate opportunity [to win at Indianapolis],” Knaus said of Johnson’s sixth-place IndyCar Series oval debut at Texas Motor Speedway earlier this month. It was his first top 10 since transitioning to IndyCar competition in 2021.
“He’s actually got more drafting experience than anyone else in that series [IndyCar], if you think about it. Of course, there’s going to be somewhat different characteristics, different car, and whatnot, but he’s going to understand that, I believe, better than any of those other guys. And I think it puts him in a unique situation where he could easily out-perform a lot of folks there.”
23XI Racing driver Kurt Busch has a unique firsthand perspective on Johnson’s quest. The 2004 NASCAR Cup Series champion made his only IndyCar start in the 2014 Indianapolis 500 — the last NASCAR driver to complete “The Double” — competing in both the Indy 500 and then the Coca-Cola 600 on the same day. Busch won Indy’s coveted Rookie of the Race award with a sixth-place finish but was sidelined with an engine failure later that day at Charlotte.
He sees no reason to expect anything less than success for Johnson, who turned in top-five practice laps in most sessions and easily advanced into the final qualifying session. A slight miscue on his pole position attempt, however, means Johnson will start 12th in the traditional 33-car field. All four of his Ganassi teammates also advanced to final qualifying with Scott Dixon earning pole position.
“My enthusiasm is way up this year because Jimmie’s running and just to support him as a fellow NASCAR guy,” Busch said. “I remember the support everyone in this NASCAR community gave to me in 2014.
“It’s been fun just texting back and forth with him. What am I going to coach him about? But at the same time, I feel like I can throw in little things as a friend and someone who experienced it. He has so much IndyCar experience now and so much experience at that oval. That’s what I told him, ‘Go use all your NASCAR experience at that oval, blend it with the IndyCar experience you have now, and the sky’s the limit.’
“That’s where he can use his years of experience,” Busch continued. “He’s a seven-time champion in NASCAR. He’s got a ton of IndyCar starts now. He should be a legitimate threat and people should look at him that way.”
Certainly Johnson’s stock-car record at Indy indicates as much. He has as many Indianapolis Motor Speedway trophies as anyone in Sunday’s Indy 500 field, winning four times in NASCAR’s Brickyard 400. In 18 starts on the Indy oval, Johnson has earned six top-five finishes and led more than 300 laps.
Chris Owens | Penske Entertainment
Montoya (two) and defending Indianapolis 500 winner Helio Castroneves (four) are the only multi-time winners in the field this week. And as with Montoya, Castroneves said he fully expects Johnson to be a factor.
TONIGHT SHOW ENCORE?
For his part, Johnson acknowledges both the high hopes and a busy schedule. He appeared on The Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon this week and joined fellow drivers as part of a national Indianapolis 500 promotional tour — all before his many press opportunities at The Speedway.
From the time he announced he would compete in the Indy 500, he said, he has received constant support and encouragement from the NASCAR world. He’s aware of the SiriusXM NASCAR Radio listeners who call in and say they are more curious about Indy this year because of Johnson. And he’s flattered that in many ways his two racing worlds have merged in such a positive manner.
Even his father Gary, a constant presence at Johnson’s NASCAR races, will be spotting from Turn 3.
“I’ve had a ton of support, a bunch of text messages from my friends in the NASCAR world,” Johnson with a smile. “And honestly a lot of fans, at the track here over the last week or so have said, ‘We’re NASCAR fans, we’re just here to check out the track and your IndyCar experience,’ so that’s been really neat to see.”
His team owner Ganassi is a bit restrained in declaring his team the absolute favorite. But the four-time Indianapolis 500-winning owner sure likes his chances this week.
“I think in terms of a confidence level, we’re as confident as any other team right now and I think we should be more confident because our cars seem to be good,” said Ganassi, adding “we couldn’t be happier with the job he’s doing.”
“I don’t look at it as him being a celebrity, but I look at him as being a good guy that’s a good teammate that can win the race.”
That’s the prevailing feeling in Indianapolis. And if support and fans were enough to secure the victory, Johnson will be wearing the traditional winner’s wreath and gulping the victory milk this Sunday afternoon.
“He’s living a life a lot of race car drivers have always wanted to live and not many get the opportunity,” Knaus said. “So I’m extremely proud of him.”
“He’s got an opportunity. He’s got good equipment. There’s a lot of energy around it. And we know how talented he is. Is he capable of winning? 100 percent.”
It’s more than just another weekend. It always has been.
Sunday’s Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway is another unique opportunity for Kurt Busch and NASCAR to honor fallen members of the U.S. military and their families. Whether at the track or outside of it, Busch has continued to make it his dedicated mission.
Each year, the NASCAR Salutes Together with Coca-Cola initiative shows support and appreciation during Military Appreciation Month for all those who have served. The culmination of the month-long initiative is the race on Memorial Day weekend.
“This weekend is a crown-jewel event,” Busch told NASCAR.com. “With it being Memorial Day (weekend), it’s motorsports’ weekend to shine around the world, with F1 (Formula One), Indy (IndyCar), us and with the way we finish it off strong with the 600. All of the pre-race and the pageantry and the respect that we’re showing as a very patriotic group, it hits you. You feel it. And it leads into honoring our service member.”
That service member is Senior Chief Petty Officer Shannon Kent of the U.S. Navy.
“She paid the ultimate sacrifice,” Busch said. “Learning more about the families, learning what they’ve had to go through and inviting them to the race is how I have tried to get more integrated, show respect and learn about all of the different people involved.”
Each year before Charlotte’s spring race, if able, Busch invites the family of the fallen service member to the track and spends time getting to know those who join. It’s not just a decal on the car. It’s personal.
But for Busch, the mission doesn’t stop after the checkered flag waves in the Coca-Cola 600. In fact, it’s not even where it starts. Busch is actively involved with Vet Tix, an organization that provides sporting-event tickets to military veterans and their families. He sees the chance to be an ambassador for different organizations as more hands working together for the same goal.
“There’s NASCAR’s help and our stuff we are doing with 23XI (Racing), but Vet Tix takes it and makes it simple,” Busch said. “Sometimes Toyota jumps in to help, or the race track themselves will help. And so we’ve had as high as 800 tickets given away for one of the races in Phoenix.”
Through the various programs and initiatives, Busch has donated at least 100 tickets for every Cup Series race this season and plans to continue giving back. As a 22-year Cup Series veteran, he also understands the importance of setting an example for others in the garage. Especially for younger drivers and team members who may be taking in all of the emotions for the first time.
“It’s about teaching them through actions,” Busch said. “The compartmentalization of yeah, there’s race-track stuff and race-team stuff, but there is also the duty and the respect that you have to give back and work with charities and help put extra smiles on people’s faces.”
When the green flag drops on Sunday (6 p.m. ET, FOX, PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), there’s no doubt Busch will be racing for more than just himself and 23XI Racing.
The parity NASCAR is achieving with the advent of the Next Gen car is reflected in the betting market, as bettors are seeing more evenly dispersed pricing on the oddsboards. Sunday’s Coca-Cola 600 exemplifies this trend.
Kyle Larson resides at his familiar spot atop the betting board, priced at a consensus +550 odds to take the checkers at Charlotte Motor Speedway. Kyle Busch (+700) and Chase Elliott (+750) follow, and then there’s a cluster of drivers offered in +1000 to +2000 range.
“Especially with this race, the (sports)books still aren’t eager to take a strong position,” Blake Phillips, a sharp NASCAR bettor, told NASCAR.com. “You’ve got Larson, Kyle Bush and Chase Elliott as strong favorites out front, but then everyone else in that top-10, -15 segment, they’re all rated fairly similarly.”
Only two drivers with odds of +1000 or greater have won races this year, including the Clash at the Coliseum and last week’s All-Star Race, Phillips points out.
Jim Sannes, a quantitative betting and fantasy analyst at numberFire, runs simulations before every Cup race to determine each driver’s win probability. His model supports the notion of parity.
“The Next Gen car has definitely made things more level this year,” Sannes said in a direct message. “Entering last year’s 600, I had Kyle Larson at 17.5% to win. This year, he’s at 12.5%, the only driver I have with double-digit win (chances).”
That 12.5% translates to odds of +700, meaning the +550 does not represent value, per Sannes’ sims.
“There are 10 drivers in my model with at least 5% win odds versus eight last year, as well,” he said. “The biggest thing, for me, is that (the parity dynamic) has increased the pool of drivers who can realistically win without chaos, which I’d assume was a big part of the goal with the car.”
How the distance impacts handicapping
Sunday’s 600-miler, of course, is the longest race on the Cup circuit. To Phillips, distance is a key factor in handicapping the event, and it may help bettors separate drivers in this new era of parity.
“Big time,” Phillps said, “this is an endurance race, so I think the stuff you’re gonna look at here is who’s got long-run speed and also who has the ability to run a long race without making mistakes.
“So the concept of parity might not always work the way people might expect. In a race like the Coke 600, I expect to see more of the established teams and the experienced drivers running up front, because it’s one thing to be really fast and show up at various races throughout the season, and it’s another thing to be able to finish 600 miles running up front with no mistakes.”
The distance’s impact, though, can cut both ways, Sannes notes.
“It could decrease variance because it gives strong cars more time to recover from issues. Conversely, a longer race gives more time for equipment or tire issues,” he said. “So I handicap it pretty much straight-up under the assumption those two effects largely cancel each other out.”
OK, so where’s the value?
Sannes’ model implies a slight overvaluation of the favorite Larson. Phillips – while he doesn’t anticipate having a position on the No. 5 in the outright market and approaches most races wanting to find value beyond the Hendrick Motorsports driver – said, “it’s always tough to say that Larson is overvalued.”
The drivers in the Coca-Cola 600 field are mostly fairly priced, Phillips believes, making value difficult to find. He points to Joey Logano (available for +2000) and Christopher Bell (+2500) as potential value plays.
Sannes’ model also shows value on Logano, even at a shorter +1800, but he’s “hesitant to bet on a Ford (despite Ryan Blaney’s win last week) until I see some giddy-up in practice.”
Despite the trend toward parity, Hendrick Motorsports remains the class of the Cup Series, winning five of the 13 points races and occupying four of the top nine spots in the standing. There has been some movement on the No. 24 car in early Coke 600 betting action, as William Byron’s odds have been adjusted from +1200 to +1000 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
“I’m still showing a bit of value at that number because my model has him at 9.7% versus 9.1% implied (by 10-to-1 odds).” Sannes said. “But with the value decreasing, the guy I feel best about relative to his odds is Ross Chastain. I have him at 8.4% versus 7.1% implied at +1300.”
Marcus DiNitto is Senior News Editor at Gaming Today. He has been covering sports business for 24 years and sports betting for 11. NASCAR is among the many sports Marcus enjoys betting but often loses on. Follow him on Twitter; do not bet his picks.
Add team owner and two-time NASCAR Cup Series champion Kyle Busch to any NASCAR Camping World Truck Series field, and you have an instant prohibitive favorite.
In 163 starts in the series, Busch has recorded 61 victories — a remarkable winning percentage of 37.4. So, it’s only natural Busch will be the driver to beat in Friday night’s North Carolina Education Lottery 200 (8:30 p.m. ET on FS1, MRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).
Not that Busch is the only double-duty competitor in the field. Ross Chastain, a three-time career winner in the Truck Series, is making his fourth start of the season in the No. 41 Niece Motorsports Chevrolet.
Chastain is enjoying a breakout season in the Cup Series, having posted two victories and seven top-five results in 13 races.
“The intermediate package we have at Niece Motorsports has shown a lot of speed, and it’s only a matter of improving the end result,” Chastain said. “I know the hard-working people at Niece Motorsports will have a fast Chevrolet Silverado prepared for us.”
Mexico’s Max Gutierrez will attempt to make his series debut in the No. 37 AM Racing Chevrolet. If he’s successful, Gutierrez will become the 66th driver from a country outside the United States to compete in the series.
He would also be the ninth different driver from Mexico to race a NASCAR truck, joining Daniel Suárez (Monterrey), Carlos Contreras (Mexico City), Germán Quiroga (Mexico City), Michel Jourdain (Mexico City), Enrique Contreras III (Mexico City), José Luis Ramirez (Mexico City), Rubén Pardo (Mexico City) and Juan Manuel González (Mexico City).
