The odds for the 2022 Daytona 500 are typically balanced, and not much is expected to change as Speedweeks progresses in Florida.
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Denny Hamlin, the race favorite, is priced between +800 and +1000 around the betting market. In fact, one bettor likes Hamlin so much that they placed a $10,000 bet on him at +800 at BetMGM to win the 2022 Daytona 500 — meaning the bettor would win $80,000 if the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing driver scores his fourth Daytona 500 victory. At multiple sportsbooks, 19 other drivers are listed at 30-to-1 odds or shorter.
For non-superspeedway races, which are far more predictable than those run at Daytona or Talladega, the favorite’s odds don’t come close to double digits. But the tight pack of pricing for the Daytona 500 mirrors what we’re likely to see on the track this Sunday.
| Driver |
SuperBook |
Barstool |
BetMGM |
| Denny Hamlin |
+1000 |
+850 |
+800 |
| Ryan Blaney |
+1200 |
+1200 |
+1200 |
| Chase Elliott |
+1200 |
+1100 |
+1000 |
| Joey Logano |
+1200 |
+1300 |
+900 |
| Kyle Larson |
+1400 |
+1100 |
+1000 |
| William Byron |
+1400 |
+1400 |
+1400 |
| Kurt Busch |
+1600 |
+1800 |
+1800 |
| Bubba Wallace |
+1600 |
+1600 |
+1800 |
| Brad Keselowski |
+1800 |
+2000 |
+1600 |
| Alex Bowman |
+2000 |
+2000 |
+1800 |
| Kevin Harvick |
+2000 |
+2000 |
+1600 |
| Kyle Busch |
+2000 |
+1600 |
+1600 |
| Aric Almirola |
+2000 |
+2500 |
+2500 |
| Austin Dillon |
+2500 |
+2200 |
+2500 |
| Austin Cindric |
+3000 |
+3000 |
+2500 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
+3000 |
+2800 |
+2500 |
| Christopher Bell |
+3000 |
+3000 |
+2500 |
| Chris Buescher |
+3000 |
+3500 |
+3300 |
| Tyler Reddick |
+3000 |
+3000 |
+2500 |
| Martin Truex Jr |
+3000 |
+2200 |
+2000 |
While the race itself is preceded by a week’s worth of competitive events, it’s unlikely bettors will see significant odds movement by the time the green flag drops on The Great American Race.
Two practice sessions Tuesday are followed by qualifying Wednesday, and then the Bluegreen Vacation Duels on Thursday. But Ed Salmons, vice president of risk management at SuperBook USA, doubts anything will transpire that will prompt major adjustments to his numbers. Salmons expects Hendrick Motorsports to be typically dominant in Daytona 500 qualifying — they’ve won six of the last seven poles for The Great American Race. And thanks to the nature of superspeedway racing, we’re not bound to learn much from the Duel races, either.
“It’s restrictor plates. It’s not like one of the guys or one of the teams is just going to drive away from the field,” Salmons said. “I just don’t see a lot that’s going to change things, but who knows, the Fords could look just dominant, and then yeah, they would all get lowered based on that.”
Sharp Bettors’ Approach To Daytona
Because of the randomness that comes with plate racing, it’s difficult even for sharp bettors to find an edge. Many sharps stay away from the outright market (betting on a driver to win the race) for Daytona and Talladega.
“I don’t bet outrights on Daytona or Talladega,” bettor Blake Phillips said. “They’re challenging. Every once in a while, I might place a small bet, have a little bit of fun with it, but I don’t really have much of an expectation of having any sort of a plus-EV (positive expected value) portfolio on that.”
Phillips will take a similar approach to Daytona he took for the Busch Light Clash at the Coliseum, or any race for which past stats are of little handicapping value. (The Bristol Dirt Race is another example.)
His approach: Try to spot betting market overreactions in the matchups (betting one driver to finish ahead of another).
“I’m not betting outrights on (Daytona) because I’m not handicapping it really. I’m playing a very exploitative strategy at these type tracks and races,” Phillips said. “ … For Daytona, it’s just like, who can I get odds on that’s going to keep it clean long enough.”
Treading Lightly Early In The Season
As NASCAR rolls out the Next Gen car, bettors are taking a largely watch-and-learn approach this season, particularly when it comes to futures wagering (betting a driver to win the Cup championship).
“It’s pretty quiet in that market,” Salmons said. ‘The best way I could sum it up is I think the public needs to see some of the new cars and the new teams first before they’re willing to bet it.
“I’m sure once we get going, and let’s just say if all of a sudden the Penske cars are the best cars — it looked like they had a really good test in Phoenix — so if they come out and have a good showing, their odds will get lowered and people will probably bet them because it’s what they’re seeing. But I think there’s a lot of people just waiting and seeing what’s going to happen.”
As he’s wont to do, pro bettor Zack White has made a few early long shot futures plays — Chase Briscoe at 750-to-1 odds and Alex Bowman at 30- and 25-to-1 (yes, again) — but he’ll watch how Next Gen racing unfolds and be ready to fire again.
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“Ignoring Daytona for the most part. Will re-assess championship odds after we see some data from Fontana,” White said in a text message.
“I don’t think we can draw any major conclusions about where the teams are with the new car based on anything we saw at The Clash or anything that we will see at Daytona,” he added. “But who knows, maybe there will be strong market reactions that create opportunity. I’m keeping an eye on it.”
For Phillips, who doesn’t get too involved in futures, the wait-and-see mentality applies to wagering on races, too, especially this season.
“The beginning of the season is always kind of weird because with all the changes that happen from season to season, it’s always good to kind of start out light at the beginning,” Phillips said. “I weigh recency a lot heavier than previous results. And now that we’re switching over the Next Gen, we’ve got new team alliances, stuff like that, I’m going to be very, very conservative for the next month or two before I really get comfortable digging in as usual.”
Marcus DiNitto is Senior News Editor at Gaming Today. He’s been covering sports business for 24 years and sports betting for 11. NASCAR is among the many sports Marcus enjoys betting but often loses on. Follow him on Twitter; do not bet his picks.