Playoff drivers Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski, Martin Truex Jr. and Ryan Blaney all found trouble early Sunday in the Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway.
Busch’s No. 18 Camry was the first with an issue after contacting the outside wall exiting Turn 2 on Lap 22, cutting down the right-front tire of the two-time NASCAR Cup Series champion and sending him off the pace. He had a separate issue later in the race after he got loose with roughly 30 laps to go in Stage 2 in the same part of the track and again slid into the wall. Just a few hundred feet later, Busch ran the high line entering Turn 3 and had another tire give out, sending him back into the SAFER barrier and onto pit road. Busch finished the race in 28th place, six laps down.
Keselowski, the 2012 Cup champion, found himself mired in traffic shortly after the ensuing restart and slid up into the outside wall off Turn 2 directly in front of Truex, who also scrubbed the fence. Keselowski was forced to pit at Lap 38 with a flat right-rear tire as a result of the contact while Truex’s No. 19 car lasted until Lap 53 when his right-rear also went down. Keselowski was caught off the lead lap for much of the rest of the race and came home 17th, one lap down. Truex was able to rebound with a seventh-place finish.
Blaney was the next victim of a flat right-rear tire with nine laps to go in Stage 1, costing him valuable stage points as he was running fourth at the time of his problems. Blaney entered Sunday’s race second in points and 17 points to the good.
The No. 12 team’s day went from bad to worse, though, on a restart at lap 224 that saw Austin Dillon get loose underneath Blaney and contact his left rear. Blaney pounded the outside wall exiting Turn 2 as a result and finished 37th, the only playoff driver to end with a DNF on Sunday.
All four drivers are in the Round of 8 and remain well in playoff contention. Busch leaves Kansas fourth in the standings just one point above the elimination line. Blaney heads to Martinsville one point out of a Championship 4 spot with Truex (-3), Keselowski (-6) and Joey Logano (-26) behind him. Those teams will try to rebound next weekend at Martinsville Speedway in their attempts to advance to the Championship 4 in Phoenix.
Sunday afternoon’s NASCAR Cup Series Hollywood Casino 400 (coverage on NBCSN/NBC Sports App, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) was delayed for 28 minutes by wet weather at Kansas Speedway. Caution came out for weather on Lap 11, and after a brief downpour, cars were brought down pit road and the red flag displayed. Pole sitter Kyle Larson was the leader with 12 of the scheduled 267 laps completed.
The red flag was displayed and then a hold was called for lightning, but drivers were told to stay close to their cars as track-drying efforts got underway. The red flag lasted for 15 minutes, 46 seconds, the sun came out and the lightning hold was lifted. The race resumed at 3:52 p.m. ET.
The race at Kansas marks the middle race of the Round of 8 of the 2021 NASCAR Playoffs. Kyle Larson is the only driver locked into the Championship 4 following his win at Texas and started on pole for today’s 267-lap race. Ryan Blaney, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott, Brad Keselowski, Martin Truex Jr. and Joey Logano are also still in title contention. Busch is the most recent winner at Kansas scoring a victory here in May.
Blaney (+17), Hamlin (+9) and Busch (+8) are holding the three remaining Championship 4 transfer spots with two races left in the Round of 8. Elliott (-8), Keselowski (-15), Truex (-22) and Logano (-43) are below the elimination line. Elliott is the reigning Cup Series champion, and Logano is the defending race winner.
A daunting task lies ahead for Harrison Burton and Noah Gragson following the NASCAR Xfinity Series Round of 8 middle race at Kansas Speedway.
Disaster struck for both drivers with 21 laps remaining in Saturday’s Kansas Lottery 300. Burton’s No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota was launched into the front stretch outside retaining wall after part-time driver Sam Mayer got into the left-rear quarter panel of Burton. In the process, Gragson, a teammate of Mayer, was an innocent bystander when his No. 9 JR Motorsports Chevrolet smashed into Burton’s machine.
The crash took both postseason contenders out of the 200-lap race. Burton finished 34th, while Gragson finished a position behind in 35th.
Burton heads to next Saturday’s Round of 8 finale at Martinsville Speedway eighth in the playoff standings, 51 points below the elimination line — a must-win situation to make his first Championship 4 appearance.
“I just got hit and got headed toward the fence,” Burton told NBC’s Parker Kligerman after exiting the infield care center. “Such a bummer. We were so fast today. I felt like this was one of our better races. We were really building on it, building on it and just needed a different outcome. But that’s alright. We’ll go to Martinsville and try to kick their tail.”
Prior to the incident with Burton, Gragson had raced back into the top five following a run-in with playoff driver Daniel Hemric after a restart on Lap 97. Gragson got into the back of Hemric’s No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota at the exit of Turn 2, sending Hemric for a spin. As Hemric tried to save his car, he hit the right front of Gragson’s No. 9. Both drivers hit pit road for relatively quick damage repair and stayed on the lead lap.
Although Hemric finished 15th, he still remains seven points above the elimination line in his effort to make his first Championship 4 appearance.
As for Gragson, he’s now 24 points below the elimination and likely in the same boat as Burton if he also wants a title opportunity.
“I thought Harrison was doing a great job and myself. You know, we’re just racing for a championship,” Gragson said. “Harrison didn’t do anything wrong. Just a bummer. Proud of this True Timber 9 Bass Pro Shops team. A lot of fun. Ran out of tires with the contact with (Daniel) Hemric there on the restart. Hung on really well for the tires that we were on.”
Gragson noted he would address the situation with teammate Mayer, but viewed Martinsville with a positive lens.
“We’re really good at Martinsville,” Gragson added. “Finished third there last year, second there earlier in the spring. I’ll get the situation from today handled and we’ll go to battle next week as a team. Just very thankful for the opportunity today to race here at Kansas.”
Ty Gibbs continued his phenomenal NASCAR Xfinity Series rookie season on Saturday with his fourth victory of the year in the Kansas Lottery 300 at Kansas Speedway.
Gibbs passed reigning series champion Austin Cindric on Lap 190 of 200 and beat the driver of the No. 22 Team Penske Ford to the finish line by .759 seconds to earn his ninth top-five finish in his 16th start.
“He got a little bit free and kind of slowed down in (Turns) 3 and 4, and I could get to his left rear and side-draft him and get away from him,” the 19-year-old Gibbs said of the winning pass.
“I got loose a couple of times over there (pointing to Turns 3 and 4), but I was just trying to give it my all, trying to come back with a win. To have four wins this year in the Xfinity Series is just unbelievable.”
Gibbs’ victory as a non-playoff driver means that at least three drivers will advance to the Championship 4 on points after next Saturday’s race at Martinsville Speedway. That’s good news for Cindric and AJ Allmendinger (third Saturday), who have made a habit of swapping the series lead this year.
Cindric and Allmendinger leave Kansas 47 points above the cutoff for the Championship 4, and barring disaster at NASCAR’s shortest track, both will earn spots in the title race Nov. 6 at Phoenix Raceway.
“I feel like I could hold my own with the track position and we did a good job being consistent and not making mistakes today,” said Cindric, who won the second stage and led a race-high 151 laps to 14 for the race winner. “Maybe if I didn’t enter (the corner) as high, I could have maybe air-blocked a little better.
“The cooler it got, the freer I was getting. I thought the tire cycle would help me, but it didn’t help me. I would have loved the win to lock our way in, but it’s better than crashing out at a Kansas Playoff race like I have the last three years. We led a lot of laps but finished second, but it could have been a lot worse.”
Indeed. Cindric could have suffered the fate of Noah Gragson or Harrison Burton who wrecked out of the race on Lap 179 when a misjudged move by Sam Mayer sent Burton’s Toyota spinning into Gragson’s Chevrolet, and both cars clobbered the outside frontstretch wall.
Burton and Gragson finished 34th and 35th respectively, dropping Gragson to sixth in the playoff standings (24 points below the cut line) and leaving Burton eighth (51 points out of fourth and needing a win next Saturday at Martinsville).
“We were fast today,” Burton said. “We felt like this was a race we were finally showing what we were capable of, and it’s been a rough couple of weeks really. I don’t know—it’s just so frustrating.”
Ninth-place finisher Justin Allgaier is nine points above the cutoff for the Championship 4, two points ahead of Saturday’s polesitter, Daniel Hemric, who recovered from a spin with Gragson on Lap 97 to finish 15th.
Gibbs came back through the field to win despite a pit road speeding penalty under caution on Lap 93 after the completion of the second stage.
Justin Haley improved his chances of qualifying for the championship race with a fourth-place result, leaving him fifth in the standings and seven points behind Hemric. Non-Playoff drivers Ryan Sieg, Brett Moffitt, Michael Annett and Sam Mayer finished fifth through eighth, respectively.
Inspection note: The race-winning No. 54 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota of Ty Gibbs passed post-race technical inspection, making him the official race winner. The Nos. 16 and 19 each had one lug nut not safe and secure. The No. 23 Chevrolet of Patrick Emerling lost a ballast, which will result in a four-race suspension for crew chief Kenneth Roettger, crew member Robert Anderson and car chief Drew Beason. There were no other issues.
Two drivers that have driven the No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet shared their mutual admiration for each other on Twitter this week.
Freshly locked into the Championship 4 following his win at Texas, Kyle Larson answered a fan question on Twitter asking about which retired driver he’d like to race against today. You can see his answer below and watch it as well.
His answer: “There’s a handful of guys I’ve gotten to race with that are now retired that I wish I could have raced with in their prime. Tony Stewart. Jeff Gordon. I got to be in the same race with Mark Martin maybe once or twice. My first Cup race I know I did. Mark Martin would be another one. I’ve heard a lot of people say he’s the most talented race car driver they’ve gotten to work with. Mark would be on that list as well.”
That led to NASCAR Hall of Fame Class of 2017 member Mark Martin responding on Twitter with his own praise of the driver that spoke of him.
Both drivers scored wins for Hendrick. Five of Martin’s 40 Cup wins came driving for the organization, while eight of Larson’s 14 Cup wins to date have come this season at Hendrick.
Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway
(⏰ 3 p.m. ET | 📺 NBCSN, TSN | 📻 MRN, SiriusXM)
Everything you need to know for Saturday’s Round of 8 middle race and 34th points-paying NASCAR Cup Series event of the 2021 season.
Where: Kansas Speedway, located in Kansas City, Kansas Green flag: 3:18 p.m. ET Grand Marshal: Eric Stonestreet, Emmy Award-winning actor Flyover: B-2 Bomber from Whiteman Airforce Base TV/Radio: NBCSN/NBC Sports App, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio Forecast: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 76 degrees and the chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible, according to NOAA.gov Race Distance: 267 laps, 400.5 miles Stages: 80 | 160 | 267 Pit-road speed: 45 mph Caution car speed: 55 mph Race purse: $7,972,577 Kansas 101: Get the fulllowdown
Starting lineup: See the full lineup Pit-stall assignments: See who is pitting where |Expert breaks down pit selections
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Five to watch
Here are five big story lines we’ll be following at Kansas Speedway.
1. Who’s next to lock in? Kyle Larsonpunched his ticket to the Championship 4 finale at Phoenix Raceway with a dominant win at Texas Motor Speedway. That leaves three spots remaining for the seven other championship hopefuls to wrestle over. Joey Logano and Martin Truex Jr. find themselves in the most precarious points situations after unfortunate incidents in the Lone Star State. But as we know, winning in this format can cure everything. Of the seven still fighting for a title berth, Ryan Blaney is the only one without a win at Kansas. Denny Hamlin and Logano each have three. Truex, Brad Keselowski and Kyle Busch have two apiece. And reigning Cup champion Chase Elliott has one. A win by a driver below the elimination line could very well create mayhem at Martinsville Speedway. See where everyone stands.
2. Another mile-and-a-half and another week as the favorite to win for Kyle Larson. Larson is having a historic season overall, but specifically at the 1.5-milers. He’s led the most laps in a single season at this track type in Cup Series history. And with more than 2,000 laps led this season, he’s landed among the all-time great single seasons. You race every week to win, obviously. But you’re a playoff driver in good points standing, at some point you may be thinking of an alternate strategy. If Larson wins again, that is one less guaranteed position taken off the table for the final race before Phoenix. Larson might once again steal the show, but it may be very beneficial for others — especially those in solid points standing — seeking a coveted birth in the finale.
3. Can Brad Keselowski continue his charge up the standings? Keselowski entered the Round of 8 squarely at the bottom of the standings with a lot of work to do. And then came Texas. The No. 2 team flashed incredible speed, running in the top five most of the day and vaulting themselves to sixth place in the standings. It wasn’t a win, but it was a very promising start heading to another 1.5-mile track. He’s finished outside the top six just once at Kansas in the last six races here, including a fourth-place finish in this race last season and a top-three result in the spring. Could the driver of the No. 2 Team Penske Ford Mustang prove to be the biggest Championship 4 dark horse?
4. If there is any current non-playoff driver to watch, there is a strong case it should be Tyler Reddick. He’s on pace to double his top 10s from a season ago and, if you discount the uncontrollable accident at Talladega Superspeedway, he has a 5.7 average finish over a span of Las Vegas Motor Speedway, the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval and Texas. Still in search of his first Cup Series victory, he’s certainly shown no signs of backing down — even after his Round of 16 exit. He sits right at 10th in average finishes at 1.5-mile tracks this season and another strong showing at Kansas could have him land just inside. Reddick has had a mix of top 10s and sub-par finishes in four career starts in Kansas City. Based on more recent results, expect him to be competitive throughout the afternoon.
5. There hasn’t been a repeat Cup Series champion since Jimmie Johnson’s run of five straight from 2006-10. Chase Elliott is trying to change that. Elliott has a pair of wins this season, but none at 1.5-mile tracks. He enters Sunday’s race eight points below the elimination line and the first out of the Championship 4. With Hendrick Motorsports’ speed at intermediates (and nearly everywhere else) this season, eight points should be easy ground to make up. That is if the No. 9 team can avoid pre-race mistakes. Having to start at the rear may have cost him valuable stage points, though he rallied back to gain three in Stage 1 at Texas. With time winding down and just two races remaining before the finale, look for Elliott and company to clean up the technical errors. He finished fifth at Kansas in the spring and sixth in this race last season.
Race-day staples
Our biggest pieces of the week — get covered for race day from all angles.
• Power Rankings: Elliott’s title defense about to go full throttle? | Latest rankings
• Paint Scheme Preview: Kansas City colors | See them all • Playoff Pulse: Analyzing the field after Texas | Full breakdown
• Debate: Should Truex Jr. and Logano hit the panic button? | Watch the debate
• Bubble Watch: Will Keselowski be the next driver to join Larson in the Championship 4? | See the bubble breakdown
• Fantasy Fastlane: Make Larson’s final use count at Kansas | Top plays, sleepers
Get in on the action
Think you know NASCAR? Put your mettle to the test with gaming, fantasy.
• What are the odds?: Betting odds for Kansas | See them here
• Featured matchup: Breaking down betting Kyle Busch vs. Chase Elliott | The Action Network’s pick |See the analysis
• Roll with Reddick: RCR driver has been surging on 1.5-mile tracks of late | Read more
• Bullish on Byron: Should the Hendrick be the pick in Group 2 of Jackpot Races? | Watch for more
• Wait on Larson? Timing not right for Cup championship futures bet | Read more • Talking playoffs: How Fantasy Live game works for the postseason | Read more
• On the grid: How the Cup Series Playoffs Grid Challenge works | Read more • No risk, big reward: Take a shot at winning cash prizes with the free-to-play Jackpot Races app | Hit the jackpot
• Play it LIVE: Full guide to 2021 NASCAR Fantasy Live game | Get the FAQ
Memories from Kansas
NASCAR heads to the final 1.5-mile oval for the 2021 season and second race at Kansas, so let’s take a look back at some track history.
Hard-hitting, race-relevant statistics, brought to you by the experts at Racing Insights.
• Sunday marks the 32nd Cup Series race at Kansas and the latest a race has ever been held in a season.
• The last five races at Kansas have been won by either Joe Gibbs Racing or Team Penske. • Five of the last six Kansas winners have led 57 laps or fewer. • Denny Hamlin is the only driver to win at Kansas after leading the most laps and he has done it twice. • Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, Kevin Harvick and Chase Elliott have run the most laps in the top five in the playoffs.
Catch the pack
Allison Farrand | ARCA Racing
Read up on all the headlines from the week leading up to Sunday’s race.
• Transformation: Corey LaJoie channels ‘Stroker Ace’ at Kansas | Watch the video
• Rare air: Kyle Larson joins historic list of drivers with eight wins in a season | Check out the list • Penalty report: Five teams docked for lug-nut violations at Texas Motor Speedway | More details • War of words: Chase Briscoe, Denny Hamlin exchange words on Instagram | Take a look • Sorry, not sorry? Daniel Suarez conflicted after run-in with Martin Truex Jr. at Texas | Full story • Indefinite suspension: Part-time Xfinity driver Carson Ware suspended by NASCAR | Read more
• Next Gen discussion: Bob Pockrass joins Backseat Drivers to share his take | See what he said
• Where are they now? Catching up with Brian Scott | Read more • Fitting debut: BJ McLeod Motorsports taps Nick Sanchez for part-time Xfinity duty in 2022 | Read more
Say what?
Notable quotes from the stars of the sport heading into Sunday’s race.
• “It’s obviously not the position you want to be in, but we’re not out of it. We have two shots to win at tracks we’ve had success in the past. There’s an outside chance of making it on points, but you can’t count on that with how strong the teams we are racing are. At the end of the day, I’m not going to give up and our team isn’t going to give up, so we’re going to do all that we can these next two weeks and see what happens.” — Martin Truex Jr., driver of the No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
• “We found a set-up that really works well there for me. I’m not really sure what has clicked, but the last four races have been really good for us. I really like that race track. It’s smooth, it’s wide, you can really work the lanes when you need to. It’s a fun race track and one that we’ve got circled that we could possibly win and punch our ticket.” — Denny Hamlin, driver of the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota
• “My last Cup race was Texas 2019 with Marty and we’ve always been friendly and kept in touch. I’ve obviously been racing in the Truck Series the last two years, but when this opportunity came about with Fast, it made total sense to come back together and go racing. Marty and I always talked about doing more racing together – when we got done in 2019, he told me, ‘This isn’t goodbye, it’s ‘I’ll see you later.’ Looking forward to it. We’ve always had a lot of fun racing together. I’ve always enjoyed everybody at Gaunt Brothers Racing, I’m still friends with everyone there, I keep in touch all the time. Although it’s been since 2019, it doesn’t feel that way at all. It kind of feels like we’re picking up right where we left off.” — Parker Kligerman, driver of the No. 96 Gaunt Brothers Racing Toyota
Last season brought Chase Elliott his first NASCAR Cup Series championship, a crowning achievement in his racing career. But the 2020 campaign also offered a learning experience, providing some playoff seasoning that endures as a current-day benefit.
Pressed into a corner last year, Elliott and the No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports team belted out two clutch victories to close the season — one in the Round of 8 finale at Martinsville Speedway and the final one in the Phoenix Raceway title clincher. He’s not quite in the desperation of do-or-die mode yet this season, sitting eight points back of the Cup Series’ provisional elimination line heading into the Round of 8’s middle race at Kansas Speedway. Should such a scenario arise, Elliott’s at least been there before.
“I mean, I think the biggest thing with that is it just really taught us a good lesson, right?” Elliott said. “… Obviously we’d love to get through this weekend, go ahead and get a win, but just taking that lesson and knowing, ‘hey, look it’s not over till it’s over and anything can happen.’ I don’t think there’s ever really a safe place with points unless you have a win, so I mean to me that’s the most, that’s the safest thing you can do is go compete for wins and I feel like we’re very capable of that — this year, just like we were last year. And I don’t see any reason why we can’t go and then have a shot to win each of these next two weeks.”
The quest for a repeat Cup Series title, which would mark the first in the eight years of the elimination-style playoff format, continues with Sunday’s Hollywood Casino 400 (3 p.m. ET, NBCSN/NBC Sports App, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) at the 1.5-mile Kansas City track. Just one other race is on the schedule — Oct. 31 at Martinsville — before the Championship 4 field is locked in for the Nov. 7 finale at Phoenix.
The two remaining races in the Round of 8 rank as friendly territory for Elliott, who finished seventh in the round opener at Texas Motor Speedway despite a recurring and confounding vibration in his No. 9 Chevy. He prevailed at Kansas in 2018, and his recent finishes there have since been dotted with top-five results. Elliott’s most recent Martinsville efforts have equaled finishes of fifth, first and second since the start of 2020.
Elliott starts fifth Sunday at Kansas, a track that’s presented him with mixed fortunes — especially early in his career. With playoff implications looming over the 400-miler, Elliott hopes the setup is more hit than miss.
“I think really all you can do is just kind of look back at prior races for us and kind of understand where to try to draw some conclusions as to what has potentially made a difference in us having a good day versus a bad day,” Elliott says. “A lot of times there’s trends that show up, a path we might go down or something you’re chasing setup-related that sends you down a bad road so just trying to connect the dots and put the pieces of the puzzle together that correlate with good days there and try to put ourselves in the best position we can we go and have a good day.”
Having a good enough day to seal an automatic Championship 4 berth would require Elliott to snap a mild winless skid on oval tracks. Both of Elliott’s victories this year — Circuit of the Americas and Road America — have come on road courses.
It’s not for a lack of close brushes with Victory Lane; Elliott has finished second or third five times on ovals this year, but has yet to scratch the win column on that track type.
“Obviously, the results are what they are,” Elliott said. “So whatever the reason may be, it really doesn’t matter. You either do or you don’t, and we haven’t checked that box yet this year, but I don’t feel like it’s been a lack of performance, and on certain ovals, I feel like we’ve been really solid, so I feel like we’re just as capable right now as we were a year ago or a year before that.”
When the NASCAR Cup Series circuit visits 1.5-mile tracks, Tyler Reddick is a factor. Reddick has steered the No. 8 Chevrolet to five-straight top-10 finishes on these ovals.
That run began in May at Kansas Speedway, site of Sunday’s Hollywood Casino 400 (3 p.m. ET on NBCSN/NBC Sports App, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), the last race employing the 550-horsepower, high-downforce package on the 2021 NASCAR schedule. In other words, this is Reddick’s last best opportunity to break through to Victory Lane for the first time in his Cup career. He’s priced at 25-1 odds or better around the betting market to do that.
Over those five races, Reddick’s 7.4 average finish ranks fourth in the series, and the 200 points he has collected are fifth best. He’s running up there with the big boys at these tracks, making his long odds look awfully enticing.
Here are odds to win this weekend at Kansas from NASCAR’s three official betting partners – Barstool Sportsbook, BetMGM, and WynnBET. As of Friday morning, Barstool has the nicest price on Reddick:
Driver
Barstool
BetMGM
WynnBET
Kyle Larson
+225
+225
+250
Denny Hamlin
+650
+600
+650
Kyle Busch
+800
+700
+750
Chase Elliott
+800
+750
+700
Martin Truex Jr
+850
+900
+900
William Byron
+1000
+1000
+1100
Ryan Blaney
+1100
+900
+900
Brad Keselowski
+1400
+1200
+1400
Kevin Harvick
+1600
+1400
+1600
Joey Logano
+1800
+1600
+1400
Tyler Reddick
+2800
+2500
+2500
Alex Bowman
+3000
+2500
+2800
Christopher Bell
+3300
+3300
+3300
Kurt Busch
+4000
+3300
+4000
OK, we know by this point in the season it’s rare for anyone not from the Hendrick, Gibbs or Penske teams to win a Cup race. It has happened only five times in the 33 races so far – two of those outliers have occurred on restrictor-plate tracks and one emerged from the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course.
Still, at 25-1 odds or better, a gambler can’t be blamed for taking a shot on Reddick.
There are, of course, more realistic ways to invest in the No. 8. Here’s a handful to consider from around the betting marketplace.
Top-three finish, +750 (Barstool)
Top-five finish, +325 (WynnBET)
Top-10 finish, -122 (Barstool)
Reddick -121 over Christopher Bell (Barstool)
Reddick -120 over Alex Bowman (WynnBET)
Reddick +110 over Kevin Harvick (SuperBook)
Reddick -110 over Joey Logano (SuperBook)
TIGHTENING LARSON
We wrote in this space last week that oddsmakers were tempting bettors by offering Kyle Larson at better than 3-1 odds at Texas Motor Speedway. Larson delivered for chalk players with his eighth win of the season.
The sportsbooks aren’t being as generous this week, tightening Larson to the +225 to +250 range.
While Larson has won on all kinds of layouts this year, his dominance has been more pronounced on 1.5s. In the eight races on these tracks this season, he has three wins and five top fives, and he has led an astounding 1,187 laps; Denny Hamlin’s 225 laps led are a distant second.
Larson’s price is pretty skinny this week, though, and with his spot in the Championship 4 secured, it’s fair to wonder how the Hendrick garage and No. 5 team will approach Sunday’s race – do they go all out for a Larson win, or do they put their resources behind Chase Elliott and save Larson’s best stuff for Phoenix Raceway?
AROUND THE GARAGE
Kyle Busch. At 8-1 odds, Kyle Busch deserves a look. He won the spring race at Kansas, and he has been stellar on 550-horsepower tracks, never finishing outside the top 10 in 11 starts (including the two races at Pocono Raceway and one at Michigan International Speedway). In addition to the Kansas win, Busch has a victory at Pocono, two second-place finishes and three thirds. In the eight races on 1.5-mile tracks, his 4.4 average finish leads the series (Larson is second at 7.0).
William Byron. After finishing second and leading 55 laps at Texas, Byron has gained respect with the betting market. Priced in the +1600 to +1900 range last week, the No. 24 Chevy is a consensus +1000 at Kansas. Byron won at Homestead-Miami Speedway and has six top-10s, including three in the top five, on 1.5s this season.
Kevin Harvick. Harvick is searching his first win of 2021, but priced around 15-1, the No. 4 still commands a measure of respect among oddsmakers and bettors. He does have an excellent history at Kansas; his 9.1 average career finish tops in the field. His 9.0 average finish at 1.5s this season keeps him in the mix, but ninth is a long way from first and cashing tickets at those long odds.
Marcus DiNitto is a writer and editor living in Charlotte, North Carolina. He has been covering sports for nearly two-and-a-half decades and sports betting for more than 10 years. His first NASCAR betting experience was in 1995 at North Wilkesboro Speedway, where he went 0-for-3 on his matchup picks. Read his articles and follow him on Twitter; do not bet his picks.
Following a win last weekend at Texas, Kyle Larson locked in his spot for the championship race at Phoenix, leaving three openings remaining for the NASCAR Cup Series’ title event.
Those spots are still very much up for grabs among the seven remaining eligible drivers, including Chase Elliott and Kyle Busch.
Busch currently ranks fourth in the playoff standings with an eight-point advantage over the elimination line. Elliott is right behind Busch, sitting eight points below the elimination line.
Because both are vying for the final playoff position heading into Sunday’s Hollywood Casino 400 (3 p.m. ET, NBCSN/NBC Sports App, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), the Elliott vs. Busch head-to-head driver matchup at Barstool Sportsbook is also a very interesting one for bettors.
Let’s take a deeper look at Elliott vs. Busch, including which side is the smartest way to bet this NASCAR driver matchup.
At Kansas earlier this year, Busch won the race and tied with Kyle Larson for the top driver rating, while Elliott ranked sixth in that metric.
If we expand this out further to garner a larger sample size and look at the five races using this right-side tire (Kansas, Michigan, Texas and two races at Las Vegas), we still see Busch with an advantage, albeit a small one — over Elliott.
Over that span of five races, Busch has the top average finish in the NASCAR Cup Series with the fourth-best driver rating. Elliott, on the other hand, ranks fifth and seventh, respectively.
Again, this matchup is very tight, but based on the data above you can make a strong case that the odds are flipped and Busch should be the short favorite over Elliott.
In fact, Kyle is actually a -118 favorite over Chase (-110) at Barstool Sportsbook, once again reinforcing the importance of shopping for the best odds before making any bet.
With this in mind, I’m taking Busch (-105) to finish ahead of Elliott, who is currently -115 in this matchup.
With only two more races remaining to set the NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship 4 Round field, Saturday’s Kansas Lottery 300 (3 p.m. ET on NBC/NBC Sports App, MRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) at Kansas Speedway will play a huge role in determining who advances. And it has been an unpredictable and tough place on the Playoff drivers.
From 2016-2020 at least five of the eight Playoff drivers had some sort of big trouble in a Kansas race. Last year, Austin Cindric and Noah Gragson collided on an early-race restart and the championship-favorites finished 28th and 36th, respectively.
Three of the previous four Playoff races this year have been won by non-Playoff drivers – including John Hunter Nemechek last week at Texas Motor Speedway. The result has been tight and unpredictable Playoff standings – still led by Regular Season Champion AJ Allmendinger; but by a mere four-points over reigning series champion Austin Cindric.
The third and fourth positions in the standings are also tightly contested. Third place Justin Allgaier holds only a two-point advantage on fourth place, his JR Motorsports teammate Gragson.
Fifth place Daniel Hemric is only two-points behind Gragson. Justin Haley is six points behind Gragson and Harrison Burton is 21 points back of Gragson. Brandon Jones is 32 points out of the fourth-place transfer position, but arrives at the Kansas 1.5-miler as the only full-time NASCAR Xfinity Series driver with a previous victory at the track – winning back-to-back races in 2019 and 2020.
Interestingly, the four drivers currently below the elimination line bring solid credentials to Kansas. Three of the four even boast single-digit average finishes through the four Playoff races.
Hemric, driver of the No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota, has the best average Playoff finish (3.5) of ALL the Playoff drivers – the only driver with all top-five finishes in the previous four races. He was runner-up to Nemechek last week at Texas. And Kansas has been a resume highlight. He has three top-10 finishes in four starts there and that includes two runner-up finishes (2018 and 2020).
Jones, driver of the No. 19 JGR Toyota, has an average finish of 5.75 in Playoff races this season, with a runner-up showing at Talladega. He has four top-10 finishes in six Kansas starts – including those pair of trophies. And Jones is surely extra-motivated having just re-signed with Gibbs this week to drive another Xfinity Series season for the team in 2022.
Haley, who drives the No. 11 Kaulig Racing Chevrolet, also has a perfect four top-10 finishes in four Playoff races this year for a 6.5 average finish. He also has never finished outside the top-10 at Kansas in three starts. His best work is fourth in last year’s Playoff stretch.
Allgaier (4.5) and Cindric (4.75) are the only other drivers with Playoff averages below 10. Allgaier – a two-race winner this season – has eight top-10 finishes in 11 Kansas starts. His best work is fifth place – three different times. He has three top-five finishes in the four Playoff races, including a runner-up showing at Las Vegas, but he hasn’t led a lap in the last two races.
Cindric, who joins Allmendinger with a series-best five race win total, has struggled at Kansas. The driver of the No. 22 Team Penske Ford, has only one finish better than 25th in four Kansas starts. On the upside, he was runner-up in the 2020 spring race, leading 131 of the 175 laps. He has three top-five finishes in the 2021 Playoffs, including a runner-up at the Charlotte Roval. However his last win was Aug. 14 on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course.
This will be the first Xfinity Series start for Allmendinger at Kansas since a one-off entry back in 2007 (he finished 25th). He had four top-10 finishes in 18 NASCAR Cup Series races there as well. Although a DNF at Talladega lowered his average finish in this year’s Xfinity Series Playoffs to 13.25, he has three top-10 finishes, including a victory at the Charlotte Roval.
Gragson, another two-race winner in 2021, has three top-10 finishes in four Xfinity Playoff races including a best of third place at Las Vegas and last week at Texas. That’s indicative of his season at 1.5-mile tracks, where he has six top-10 finishes in eight previous races at the 1.5-milers. He is still looking for his first top-10, however, at Kansas where his best previous showing is 13th in 2019; his first Xfinity Series race at Kansas. He won there in the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series in 2018.
The No. 54 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota, which has 10 victories with four different drivers (including Nemechek last week at Texas), will be back in the lineup with Ty Gibbs at Kansas. Interestingly, the 19-year old Gibbs, a three-race winner in 2021 is the highest ranked non-Playoff driver despite having only 16 starts in the 30-races to date.
