NASCAR Playoffs driver Denny Hamlin will start at the rear of the field after his car failed pre-race inspection before Sunday afternoon’s NASCAR Cup Series Round of 8 elimination race at Martinsville Speedway (2 p.m. ET, NBC/NBC Sports App, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).
The No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota of the five-time Martinsville winner failed pre-race technical inspection twice. Hamlin was set to start third, but will drop to the back of the 38-car field before the Xfinity 500.
“It’s just kind of a roll-your-eyes moment,” Hamlin said. “It’s like … can we just have a nice, smooth day? That’s all I want is just a nice, smooth day. Last year here, we dominated the race and then didn’t tighten all the lug nuts on the left-front, so I just want to be able to control my own destiny. That’s it.”
The JGR driver is currently on the good side of the playoff bubble, up 32 points from the elimination line. The postseason field will be trimmed from eight title-eligible drivers to four after Sunday’s race, and Hamlin is seeking his third consecutive Championship 4 appearance.
Hamlin shared his Halloween costume on social media Saturday, taking a page from Post Malone with a NASCAR -themed get-up. The temporary face tattoos were gone by race-day morning, but he kept a bear tattoo on the top of his left hand.
“Knowing I’ll have to start in the back, the bear stays,” Hamlin joked.
MARTINSVILLE, Va. — Daniel Hemric clinched a shot at the ultimate season-long prize Saturday, landing the final Championship 4 berth in the NASCAR Xfinity Series Playoffs after a hard-fought third-place finish at Martinsville Speedway. Not winning after holding the lead with 10 laps left, though, left quite the short-term sting.
Hemric joined race winner Noah Gragson, defending champ Austin Cindric and regular-season champ AJ Allmendinger in the title-eligible field for next Saturday’s Xfinity Series finale (8:30 p.m. ET, NBCSN/NBC Sports App, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) at Phoenix Raceway. Justin Allgaier, Justin Haley, Brandon Jones and Harrison Burton were eliminated from the postseason picture.
Hemric advanced by just six points, and he has made the Championship 4 in each of his three full-time Xfinity Series season. But Hemric was relegated to his ninth top-three finish without a victory this season, reaching an agonizing 0-for-119 for his career. The big-picture goal provided some solace that could be fully realized next week.
“Nothing matters right now, right? All we’re doing now is putting all our eggs in one basket this week,” Hemric said. “We started the season out with the ultimate goal of trying to run for a championship and we started these playoffs not in the best spot, not the most playoff points. For all we had, winning obviously would be a lot more fun. It don’t matter as long as we have and can conquer the ultimate goal next week.”
Hemric had taken the lead cleanly from Gragson on Lap 232 and built a modest cushion in the Dead On Tools 250 until Haley’s spin on Lap 244 of a scheduled 250 sent the race to overtime. Shortly after the green flag re-emerged, a nudge from Cindric — who had already clinched on points by Stage 2 — got Hemric’s Joe Gibbs Racing No. 18 Toyota out of shape in the first overtime session, clearing the way for Gragson to scoot to a lead he would not surrender.
Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
Any conflict between the two contenders seemed to have smoothed over by the race’s end. Cindric fist-bumped with Hemric post-race in a welcoming gesture before they compete for the title at Phoenix, and Cindric further defended Hemric’s record and credentials when a reporter brought up his winless mark. For No. 18 crew chief Dave Rogers, the reaction was less than cordial.
“I think we had the fastest car here today,” Rogers told NASCAR.com. “Our Toyota Supras are really fast, our guys worked really hard and deserve a win. We controlled the race on a green-white-checkered and got used up. I hope to goodness that Daniel uses up people next week, if that’s what it comes down to. It’s unacceptable. We should’ve won that race. Got moved out of the way.”
Asked if the late-race bump was filed away for the No. 18 team’s memory bank, Rogers said “absolutely. I’m really upset that we didn’t win this race. It’ll take more than a week for me to forget about that. I’m not driving, which is probably a good thing, but it’s frustrating. Guys worked really hard, had a lot of speed there and controlled it. Just another (playoff) contender got in the back of us, and then we got put in a position where we had to points-race for the final green-white-checkered. Unfortunate, but this team has been extremely fast. Really proud of him. Man, I wanted that one bad.”
The points-racing that Rogers mentioned was a sore spot for both driver and crew chief. When the time to choose lanes for the final overtime came, Hemric lined up on the inside of Row 2, behind Gragson on the low lane and with Cindric starting up top on the front row.
The conservative choice, meant to avoid calamity and protect the team’s meager points margin instead of assertively vying for a win, left a sour taste.
“The racer in me did not make the right decision to be a racer,” Hemric said. “First off, you don’t get beat on the first restart. The 22 (Cindric), he can be way more aggressive, shoved me up in the middle and that let the 9 (Gragson) get a run, then the caution comes out. Then I have a choice, right?”
That decision was either to go to the high side and be surrounded by Gragson and his JR Motorsports teammates Allgaier — who wound up being the first driver eliminated, six points back — and Sam Mayer, or to make the safer bet, lining up behind Gragson on the low side to avoid a potential fracas at the front.
“We were all in together and choose the bottom,” Hemric said, “but the racer in me wanted to go to the top and race it out for the win. I knew we had the race car that should be sitting in Victory Lane right now, and it’s situational awareness, trying to minimize damage. You’ve got to hope for the best, plan for the worst and that’s what the last choose was about.”
All four spots in the NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship 4 were up for grabs at the start of Saturday’s Dead on Tools 250 at Martinsville Speedway, but now the season finale at Phoenix Raceway is set.
Take a look at which four Round of 8 drivers earned a title shot in the Nov. 6 championship race (8:30 p.m. ET, NBCSN/NBC Sports App, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), and which four were eliminated.
WINNER
Entering Martinsville 24 points below the cutline, the night turned into a must-win situation for Noah Gragson and the No. 9 team — they got it done. The win is Gragson’s first-ever at “The Paperclip” after finishing third in 2020 and runner-up in this year’s spring race. As the only playoff driver to win in this year’s Round of 8, Gragson enters the Phoenix finale as the top-seeded driver among the four remaining title hopefuls. The win adds the iconic grandfather clock to his 2021 trophy case, featuring hardware from Darlington Raceway and Richmond Raceway collected in September.
Noah Gragson (WIN), Austin Cindric (points), Daniel Hemric (points) and AJ Allmendinger (points). Austin Cindric and AJ Allmendinger locked in via points early in the race after entering with a large cushion, while Daniel Hemric’s valiant third-place finish at Martinsville sealed his championship bid. Cindric is the defending series champion.
WHO’S OUT
Justin Allgaier (-6), Justin Haley (-51), Brandon Jones(-57) and Harrison Burton (-70) are each eliminated from title contention after Martinsville. Allgaier and Haley were both in the Championship 4 last season, finishing second and third in the final season standings. Jones and Burton entered Saturday in must-win situations. Jones finished sixth, Burton placed 20th after some late-race contact and Haley was scored 35 laps down after encountering brake issues early in the race.
MARTINSVILLE, Va. – To get to the Championship 4, you have to drive like a champion.
That’s what Noah Gragson did on Saturday night in the NASCAR Xfinity Series Playoff race Dead On Tools 250 at Martinsville Speedway.
Faced with the necessity of winning the race to keep his NASCAR Xfinity Series title hopes alive, Gragson did just that, pulling off a dramatic pass of Daniel Hemric from the outside lane in the first attempt at overtime and holding off series leader Austin Cindric in the second extra period.
With Cindric’s Ford to his inside, Gragson won a drag race off Turn 4 to the finish line by .064 seconds, the closest Xfinity Series finish ever at Martinsville Speedway.
Gragson, who led a race-high 153 of 257 laps, got the lead after a restart on Lap 201, when he spun then-race-leader Ty Gibbs in a chain-reaction collision in Turn 4. After surrendering the top spot to Hemric on Lap 232, Gragson took advantage of a Lap 243 caution to regain the lead on the first overtime restart.
“This team, this Bass Pro Shops team,” said Gragson, who won for the third time this season and the fifth time in his career. “It’s been a rough, rough season. We had a couple of wins there, at Darlington and Richmond. After that deal last weekend (crashing out in 35th place at Kansas), I was pretty fired up. I told my guys we still have an opportunity. We’re still in it.
“I’m just so thankful. It’s just such an awesome opportunity. My second win here at Martinsville (his first came in the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series). Get to take home another clock…This team is unbelievable. How about these badass fans out here.
“After the contact with the 54 (Gibbs)—I didn’t mean to get into him, I got hit in the back by the 22 (Cindric)—it was just a bad deal.”
Gragson’s victory was bittersweet for JR Motorsports. Though Gragson clinched a spot in next Saturday’s Championship 4 race at Phoenix, his victory simultaneously eliminated teammate Justin Allgaier, ending a string of three straight appearances in the final four.
“We played the safe strategy,” said Allgaier, who finished fifth and would have advanced if Cindric or Hemric had won the race. “We talked about it before the race and thought that was the smart strategy… Hats off to the 9 guys—same shop—so at least we’ve got one car going to the Playoff.”
Hemric came home third to earn the final Championship 4 berth by six points over Allgaier. Regular Season Champion AJ Allmendinger ran seventh, qualified on points and will race against defending series champion Cindric, Gragson and Hemric for the title.
Eliminated from the Playoff along with Allgaier were Brandon Jones (sixth), Harrison Burton (who suffered damage in a wreck with Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Gibbs and finished 20th), and Justin Haley (who fell out of the race with brake problems after completing 222 laps).
Burton’s waterloo came in the same Lap 201 incident when Gragson inadvertently turned Gibbs. With no way to avoid his teammate, Burton ran into Gibbs’s Toyota and severely damaged the nose and front-left quarter panel of his Supra.
“We had a winning car today,” Burton said. “Just so many things have to go right in racing to win that it makes it challenging to do on the drop of a dime. We just had a couple things go wrong. It’s just a bummer deal that we didn’t get to show our speed at the end.
“Wish we could have won this thing. I felt like we were definitely capable of it. Our times were better than the 9 (Gragson) and he won. We just needed to show it.”
The Xfinity Series Championship 4 season finale will take place next Saturday at Phoenix Raceway, 8:30 p.m. ET on NBCSN/NBC Sports App, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio.
Note: Post-race inspection confirmed the No. 9 JR Motorsports Chevrolet of Gragson as the winner. There were no issues or lug-nut issues found in post-race inspection.
MARTINSVILLE, Va. — The Championship 4 is set for the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series, and three-quarters of the title-eligible field came away battle-scarred after a frantic Saturday start at Martinsville Speedway.
Zane Smith emerged victorious after a bare-knuckled overtime finish, with Matt Crafton and John Hunter Nemechek filing into the title race after an eventful afternoon in the United Rentals 200. Ben Rhodes did his best to stay above the conflict, maintaining fender neutrality to make the Championship 4 while many more of his competitors bickered about their lot on pit road afterward.
Those four will run for the Camping World Trucks title next Friday (8 p.m. ET, FS1, MRN, SiriusXM) at Phoenix Raceway in the Lucas Oil 150. Last year’s champ Sheldon Creed, Stewart Friesen, Chandler Smith and Carson Hocevar were eliminated.
Nemechek was among those with the most to argue about afterward. A run-in with non-playoff driver Austin Wayne Self left the Kyle Busch Motorsports driver on the receiving end of a retaliatory bump, and his No. 4 Toyota sustained terminal damage, ending his day 75 laps from the finish.
“He shouldn’t be out here if he’s just going to hook someone in the right rear and turn them in the fence,” Nemechek said after a quick stop at the infield care center. “NASCAR should definitely look at that. It’s playoff contention. You’ve got to have respect and he doesn’t.”
Self offered his own explanation after exiting his No. 22 Chevrolet.
“I have no idea. I was turning in the corner and it’s just Martinsville — main thing, whatever,” Self said. “Everybody’s fighting for the same real estate. I didn’t know who it was when I turned in, so it wasn’t anything against anybody. I guess bad judgment call on my part. At the end of the day, I’m racing for the same thing here at Martinsville. He could’ve been a little more conservative maybe, but I had no idea who it was, so it’s not like I turned left on purpose just to wreck him personally. Could’ve been anybody inside me there.”
Nemechek said he paced for the remainder of the race inside the No. 4 hauler to await his playoff fate. He entered the Round of 8 finale atop the standings with a 36-point cushion. He finished 39th and made the cut by just four points — “a little bit too close for comfort,” Nemechek said.
“I’m just glad that we advanced,” Nemechek said. “My motto coming into this was ‘survive and advance.’ We didn’t survive, but we advanced, so that’s good.”
Crafton will drive for his fourth series championship at Phoenix, but was in a fighting mood after Martinsville. He faced off with Creed on pit road in an attempt to explain his side of a crash with 16 laps remaining in regulation, a scrap worsened by a bump from Crafton’s fellow ThorSport Racing driver Grant Enfinger, who he berated as “my worthless teammate.”
Despite all the jostling, Crafton finished fifth and advanced by the same four-point margin that sent Nemechek through. In redoubling his focus for the title race, Crafton also suggested that a form of frontier justice may be needed to restore some respect to the series’ spirit of competition.
“Yeah, whip somebody’s ass after they wreck you,” Crafton said. “At the end of the day, don’t just talk about it, do something about it. That’s my motto. These guys work too hard, sponsors pay too much money just to get wrecked and show no class like that. So just bust somebody in the mouth and it’ll fix it, I think.”
Zane Smith forced his own way into the final mix, from a starting spot inside the second row for the overtime restart. He forced the issue with a bold, three-wide move that ultimately paid off, finally avoiding Friesen’s contact with late-race leader Todd Gilliland and ending a daylong contest of tempers and bumpers. “I got flipped off on Lap 2,” he said. “That’s probably a new record for me.”
Rhodes wound up sitting the prettiest of all, logging a relatively uneventful seventh-place result and keeping his No. 99 ThorSport team out of the warring factions on pit road post-race.
“I was putting more energy into avoiding the wrecks than the energy I was putting into chasing the clock,” Rhodes said, referring to the track’s traditional grandfather clock trophy for the race winner. “I knew if I’m chasing the clock, I’m going to be a target. … We did everything right. I just, after I saw what happened to John Hunter, I hated it for him because I saw his season going down the drain for nothing. So I was like, I really don’t want to be that guy. We’re good on points right now. Let’s just chill out. We don’t need to put ourselves in a pissing match with nobody and get wrecked. That was the plan and we followed it and stayed true to it.
“Stayed patient and we let people go when they wanted to beat our bumper off or said they wanted to wreck us, and it paid off. So we’re making it to Phoenix and avoided the carnage.”
MARTINSVILLE, Va. – On a track strewn with spinning trucks and broken hearts, Zane Smith catapulted into the Championship 4 with a thrilling overtime victory in Saturday’s United Rentals 200 at Martinsville Speedway.
In a no-holds-barred race that featured 14 cautions for 89 laps, Smith won under yellow after he, Stewart Friesen and Todd Gilliland raced three-wide — yes, three-wide at Martinsville — off Turn 4 on the first lap of overtime.
Contact from Friesen’s Toyota sent Gilliland’s Ford spinning across the start-finish line to start the final lap. As Friesen moved down the track to contest the lead with Smith, contact between the two trucks spun Friesen’s Silverado into the Turn 1 wall.
With the track blocked by spinning trucks behind Smith, NASCAR called the final caution, and Smith took the checkered flag under yellow.
Smith’s victory — his first at Martinsville, his first of the season and the third of his career — was heartbreak for his GMS Racing teammate, Sheldon Creed, the reigning series champion. Late in the race, Creed slapped the outside wall in an incident involving Matt Crafton and Grant Enfinger, finished ninth and failed to make the Championship 4 by four points.
Smith hasn’t been told whether he’ll return to GMS Racing next year, a point he made when he climbed from his No. 21 Chevrolet.
“I’m looking for a job right now,” Smith said. “I have nothing, so it’s a good day.”
Smith added a promise for next Friday’s championship race at Phoenix.
“I’ll do whatever it takes to win the damn thing,” he said.
Regular-season champion John Hunter Nemechek survived a hard wreck on Lap 130 after Austin Wayne Self hooked him on the backstretch and turned the No. 4 Toyota hard into the outside wall. Nemechek and Crafton made the final four by four points, joining Smith and Ben Rhodes in next Friday’s championship race.
“He shouldn’t be out here if he’s just going to hook someone in the right rear and turn them in the fence,” said Nemechek, who had bumped Self’s Chevrolet in Turn 1 moments before the wreck. “NASCAR should definitely look at that. It’s playoff contention. You’ve got to have respect and he doesn’t. It is what it is. Hopefully we make it to the final four and we definitely will have something for them in Phoenix.”
Knocked out of the playoffs with Creed were Stewart Friesen, who finished 17th, and Sunoco rookies Chandler Smith and Carson Hocevar.
“On one of the last restarts, he just drove into the 98 (Enfinger), his own teammate, and I ended up getting swept into the fence because of it,” Creed said. “Went back to 23rd and drove back up and finished ninth, I guess. It’s just frustrating.”
In an earlier incident on Lap 185, Enfinger had turned Crafton in Turn 4, but Crafton escaped damage with a deft move after a 360-degree spin and salvaged a fifth-place finish.
Gilliland led a race-high 133 of 204 laps but couldn’t survive the final restart when Smith used his bumper to get beneath Gilliland’s Ford in the first corner.
In the wild finish, Austin Hill was credited with second, followed by Tanner Gray, Chandler Smith and Crafton.
NOTE: Zane Smith’s No. 21 GMS Racing Chevrolet passed NASCAR’s post-race inspection, confirming his victory. The No. 19 McAnally Hilgemann Racing Toyota of Derek Kraus and the No. 49 CMI Motorsports Ford of Roger Reuse were found with one lug nut not safe and secure. There were no other issues.
The Championship 4 field is set for the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series after Saturday’s United Rentals 200 at Martinsville Speedway.
Here’s a look at everything you need to know heading into the title fight at Phoenix Raceway:
WINNER
Zane Smith. Smith locked his spot into the Championship 4 with a victory at Martinsville Speedway Saturday afternoon after Todd Gilliland and Stewart Friesen crashed across the start/finish line while taking the white flag.
Smith snuck through and advances to the Championship 4 for the second year in a row.
WHO’S IN
Zane Smith (WIN), Ben Rhodes (+27), Matt Crafton (+4) and John Hunter Nemechek (+4). Zane Smith was the runner-up at Phoenix Raceway in 2020 behind GMS Racing teammate Sheldon Creed. He’s got an opportunity to earn one spot better next weekend but will have to beat Rhodes, Crafton and Nemechek to win the title.
WHO’S OUT
Sheldon Creed (-4), Stewart Friesen (-29), Chandler Smith (-50) and Carson Hocevar (-57). For the seventh season in a row, the Truck Series will not have a back-to-back champion as Sheldon Creed was eliminated from the Championship 4. Friesen was in position to advance with a victory coming to the white flag but turned Gilliland across the line before spinning himself in Turn 1. Smith and Hocevar both spent time toward the front of the field, but neither will race for a championship at Phoenix.
Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway
(⏰ 2 p.m. ET | 📺 NBC, TSN5 | 📻 MRN, SiriusXM)
Everything you need to know for Sunday’s Round of 8 elimination race and 35th points-paying NASCAR Cup Series event of the 2021 season.
Where: Martinsville Speedway, located in Ridgeway, Virginia Green flag: 2:12 p.m. ET Grand Marshal: TBD Flyover: The Bandit Flight Team TV/Radio: NBC/NBC Sports App/Peacock, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio Forecast: Mostly sunny, with a high near 64 degrees. Northwest wind 5-11 mph, according to NOAA.gov Race Distance: 500 laps, 263 miles Stages: 130 | 260 | 500 Pit-road speed: 30 mph Caution car speed: 35 mph Race purse:$7,778,099 Martinsville 101: Get the fulllowdown
Starting lineup: See the full lineup Pit-stall assignments: See who is pitting where |Expert breaks down pit selections
James Gilbert | Getty Images
Five to watch
Here are five big storylines we’ll be following at Martinsville Speedway.
1. Four drivers are within six points of the NASCAR Playoffs elimination line entering the Round of 8 finale. At least two drivers will make the Championship 4 on points since Kyle Larson is the only one who has won in this three-race portion, meaning he’s the only one locked into the title battle. At risk of elimination: Ryan Blaney (fifth, -1), Martin Truex Jr. (sixth,-3), Brad Keselowski (seventh, -6) and Joey Logano (eighth, -26). Currently safe: Larson (qualified, two wins), Chase Elliott (second, +34), Denny Hamlin (third, +32) and Kyle Busch (fourth, +1).
2. Martin Truex Jr. puts the “Martin” in Martinsville as of late. The driver of the No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota has won three of the last four races at the Virginia short track, including the one previously held this season in April. He was passed for the win in the other. Truex sits two spots and three points below the elimination line, in danger of not making the Championship 4. He could very well point his way in, but a win would guarantee him a spot with no stress. Martinsville’s place on the schedule just might be perfect for Truex.
3. A playoff driver below the elimination line has won the Round of 8 elimination race to advance in the Championship 4 three times. Kevin Harvick, who is no longer title eligible this season, did so in 2014; he was -6 at Phoenix Raceway. Denny Hamlin did from -20 at Phoenix in 2019. And then Chase Elliott did it last year at Martinsville when -25.
4. Kyle Larson has won the last three races in a row — starting at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval, then Texas Motor Speedway and continuing the trend at Kansas Speedway. The last driver to win four consecutive races was Jimmie Johnson in 2007, and he won his second of seven championships that year. Larson has never won at Martinsville in 13 starts and averages a 21.1 finish. He placed fifth there earlier this season.
5. Hendrick Motorsports’ 25 wins at Martinsville marks the most wins by a team at a track. The next-best tally is 21 by Junior Johnson and Associates at Bristol Motor Speedway but also Hendrick Motorsports at Dover International Speedway and Charlotte Motor Speedway. Hendrick Motorsports has two drivers still active in the NASCAR Playoffs: Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott. Only Elliott from the Hendrick Motorsports garage, which also includes Alex Bowman and William Byron, has won at Martinsville before.
Race-day staples
Our biggest pieces of the week — get covered for race day from all angles.
• Power Rankings: Martin Truex Jr.’s time is ticking | Latest rankings
• Paint Scheme Preview: Spooky Halloween weekend looks | See them all • Playoff Pulse: Analyzing the field after Kansas | Full breakdown
• Playoff Show: Does Team Penske have what it takes? | Watch the show
• Debate: Will Kyle Larson end up as NASCAR great? | Watch the debate
• Bubble Watch: Lurking Joey Logano should worry drivers | See bubble breakdown
• Fantasy Fastlane: Heavy on playoff performers | Top plays, sleepers
Get in on the action
Think you know NASCAR? Put your mettle to the test with gaming, fantasy.
• What are the odds?: Betting odds for Martinsville | See them here
• Featured matchup: Breaking down betting Ryan Blaney vs. Martin Truex Jr. | The Action Network’s pick | See the analysis
• Betting pick: The 17-1 prop bet to make | Read more
• Jackpot Races: Team Penske trouble at Martinsville? | Watch for more
• Fantasy advice: Martin Truex Jr. motivated for Martinsville | Watch for more • Talking playoffs: How Fantasy Live game works for the postseason | Read more
• On the grid: How the Cup Series Playoffs Grid Challenge works | Read more • No risk, big reward: Take a shot at winning cash prizes with the free-to-play Jackpot Races app | Hit the jackpot
• Play it LIVE: Full guide to 2021 NASCAR Fantasy Live game | Get the FAQ
Memories from Martinsville
NASCAR heads to the final race in the Round of 8 and second race at Martinsville Speedway, so let’s take a look back at some track history.
• All-time fall wins: Martinsville Speedway | See the list
• 14 times: Martinsville fall winners who won title | See the champs
• Memory lane: Most memorable moments at Martinsville | Relive the moments
• Martinsville mayhem: Years of crumpled cars |Relive the carnage
• A race to remember: Ricky Rudd, Jeff Gordon battle | Watch 1998 NAPA Autocare 500
• One year ago: Chase Elliott cashes in on must-win to make Championship 4 | Full race recap
Fast facts
Hard-hitting, race-relevant statistics, brought to you by the experts at Racing Insights.
• Ford is winless in the last four Martinsville races after winning the three prior races. • Joe Gibbs Racing drivers were passed for the win in the last two Martinsville races.
• The Stage 2 winner won four of the last six Martinsville races.
• Denny Hamlin won five of eight stages on short tracks this season but has not won a race.
• Four playoff drivers are within six points of the elimination line.
Next Gen update
Alejandro Alvarez | NASCAR Digital Media
• Next steps: Why Next Gen was at Bowman Gray | Read more
• See the scenes: Photos from Next Gen’s time at Bowman Gray | Scroll the gallery
• One for the history books: Column on Next Gen at Bowman Gray | Read more
• Clash preview: Less than 100 days until NASCAR’s in LA | Watch the video
• Stadium tracks: History of racing around football fields | Watch the video
• Hear that?: Next Gen’s sound will be ‘amazing’ in LA | Watch the video
• Clint Bowyer’s perspective: Seat time critical before Clash | Watch the video
• ‘Does everything better:’ Dale Jr. evaluates Next Gen car | Watch the video
Catch the pack
Read up on all the headlines from the week leading up to Sunday’s race.
• Two more races: Other national series set Championship 4 fields | Xfinity preview | Truck preview
• Halloween heroics: Races ran on the spooky holiday | See the five winners
• Big shots: Modern-era drivers to win 10 races in a season | See the stars
• One point away: Ryan Blaney aiming to hit next career milestone | Read more
• Moving up: Austin Hill to run Xfinity season for RCR | Read more
• Sponsor makes moves: GearWrench to back Kevin Harvick in 2022 | Read more
• Big picture: What Bubba Wallace’s win at Talladega Superspeedway means | Read more
• He’s back: Dale Earnhardt Jr. sets lone 2022 Xfinity Series start | Find out where
• Philanthropic efforts: 2021 Comcast Community Champion of the Year finalist revealed | See the three
• Man in charge: Joe Fowler named Michigan International Speedway’s new track president | Read more
• Stacking Pennies: Corey LaJoie’s latest and greatest thoughts | Listen to podcast
• Mark your calendars: ARCA Menards Series releases 2022 schedule | See the slate
Say what?
Notable quotes from the stars of the sport heading into Sunday’s race.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
• “Martinsville, I made my first-ever NASCAR start there in the Truck Series. It didn’t go very well and I learned so much from it and it’s been a great track for me ever since then. I’ve had some tough breaks. One year we blew a tire and this past year we lost power-steering and had a mechanical failure and then got caught up in a wreck because I didn’t have any steering, so that was not a good run, but outside of that, I feel like we’ve ran 15 maybe 20 races there that have gone really, really well. It’s been a great track for us.” — Brad Keselowski, driver of the No. 2 Team Penske Ford.
• “Martinsville has been a really tough track for me in the past. Earlier this year, we were really good there in Hendrick (Motorsports) equipment and I was able to run top five. That run helped my confidence a lot. I think if we can go there and have another good run and, heck, if we can get a win there, yes – I’ll be feeling great going to Phoenix (Raceway).” — Kyle Larson, driver of the No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet.
• “I expect it to be pretty similar (to the April race). We’ll just wait and see how it plays out. Martinsville is funny because it can change 10 or 15 degrees, or the start time of the race can be a little different and you can find yourself being a little off. It’s a funny, quirky little place, but we have a lot of confidence and it’s been good to us over the past few seasons. Hopefully, we can go there and get the job done.” — Martin Truex Jr., driver of the No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota.
The oddsboard for Sunday’s Xfinity 500 (2 p.m. ET on NBC/NBC Sports App/Peacock, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) falls off a cliff, from the drivers in title contention to the also-rans. All eight drivers whose playoff hopes remain alive are priced with single-digit odds; William Byron, who has already been eliminated, is the first non-playoff driver listed, ninth on the betting board at 14-to-1 odds, despite back-to-back stand-out performances.
This weekend’s NASCAR Cup Series event at Martinsville Speedway is the penultimate race of the 2021 season, narrowing the field from eight to the Championship 4 ahead of Phoenix.
Here are odds to win Sunday’s race from four sportsbooks around the betting market (as of Friday morning):
Driver
Barstool
BetMGM
WynnBET
SuperBook
Martin Truex Jr.
+400
+400
+375
+350
Denny Hamlin
+600
+600
+600
+600
Kyle Larson
+600
+650
+800
+800
Chase Elliott
+650
+650
+650
+700
Ryan Blaney
+700
+700
+700
+700
Kyle Busch
+900
+900
+800
+800
Brad Keselowski
+900
+800
+800
+800
Joey Logano
+900
+800
+800
+800
William Byron
+1400
+1400
+1400
+1400
Kevin Harvick
+2500
+2500
+2800
+3000
Christopher Bell
+2800
+2500
+2500
+2500
Alex Bowman
+4000
+3300
+3300
+5000
Kurt Busch
+4000
+4000
+4000
+5000
Tyler Reddick
+5000
+6600
+6000
+10000
Sure, the eight still in the playoffs are generally the better drivers – that’s why they’re still in the hunt – but there’s another factor at play in the odds pricing: the notion that eliminated drivers will stay out of contenders’ way.
“In the Cup Series, you just don’t have non-playoff guys win,” Ed Salmons, who handles NASCAR oddsmaking duties at the influential SuperBook USA in Las Vegas, said in a text message to NASCAR.com.
Last week at Kansas Speedway, Byron finished second in Stage 1, won Stage 2, and led 57 laps along the way, but ultimately finished sixth; his title-contending Hendrick Motorsports teammates Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott were first and second, respectively. Two weeks ago in Texas Motor Speedway, the No. 24 came in second, again behind Larson.
“Byron has had the best car the last 2 weeks and hasn’t won,” Salmons added. “(Kevin) Harvick, who’s running much better, has finished top 5.”
There are, of course, exceptions to the rule: Kyle Busch won in the Round of 8 at Texas last year after having already been eliminated.
Austin Dillon got into Ryan Blaney late in last weekend’s Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas, hurting the No. 12’s chances of advancing to the Championship 4.
“After what Dillon did to Blaney, it’s tough for the non-playoff guys because they don’t want to be that guy,” said Salmons.
Value on the longshots?
The bookmaker’s reasoning, though, begs the question: Do the longer-than-usual odds on out-of-contention drivers present betting value on guys like Byron, Harvick and even Christopher Bell?
Well, yes, but even for quantitative handicappers, there is a smell test to pass.
“My model does not adjust for whether or not a driver is in the playoffs,” Jim Sannes, a NASCAR betting and fantasy analyst at numberFire, said in a direct message. “…. As a result, my numbers do show some outright value on Kevin Harvick and Christopher Bell this week. However, I’m not, personally, betting those outrights. …. There is some value on the non-playoff drivers, but it’s not enough for me to bet them rather than sticking with the narratives and taking an undervalued playoff driver.”
The undervaluing of non-playoff guys, though, necessarily means at least some contenders are overvalued by the bookmakers.
“If (a bookmaker) prices non-playoff guys at longer odds, he’s certainly making up for it by shortening the playoff contenders’ odds,” texted professional bettor Zack White.
There may be some value to be found, however, among the playoff field – the No. 22 at 10-to-1 odds at FanDuel, for example.
“(I’m) opting to ride with Joey Logano, who shows value (11.0% in my simulations versus 9.1% implied) even after the playoff bump,” Sannes said.
Marcus DiNitto is Senior News Editor at Gaming Today and has been covering sports business for more than 20 years and sports betting for about 10. NASCAR is among the many sports he bets – and typically loses – on. Follow him on Twitter; do not bet his picks.
Sunday’s Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway (2 p.m. ET on NBC/NBC Sports App/Peacock, MRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) is the final race of the NASCAR Cup Series’ Round of 8, giving drivers one last opportunity to lock themselves into the championship finale at Phoenix next week.
Kyle Larson, by way of wins at Texas Motor Speedway and Kansas Speedway, has already punched his ticket to the Championship 4, meaning that three positions are still very much up for grabs Sunday at Martinsville.
While anything can happen at the track known as “The Paperclip,” Chase Elliott and Denny Hamlin currently sit 34 and 32 points, respectively, above the playoff cutline, so each driver can take a conservative approach on Sunday to advance.
On the other hand, Ryan Blaney sits just one point behind the final playoff position, while Martin Truex Jr. trails by three points heading into Sunday’s race.
The performances of Truex and Blaney will be huge storylines throughout Sunday’s Xfinity 500, and oddsmakers are taking full advantage.
WynnBET‘s NASCAR Matchup of the Week has Truex priced at -130 vs. Blaney at +110.
Both drivers have been phenomenal at Martinsville over the last three races, with Truex scoring two wins and the second-best driver rating while Blaney has posted the fourth-best rating.
