We’ve been writing all season about the Cup Series’ Big Three – Hendrick Motorsports, Joe Gibbs Racing and Team Penske. But a perusal of oddsboards for the Verizon 200 at the Brickyard suggests one of these three teams may not belong in that grouping.
Joey Logano, at 30/1 odds at SuperBook USA in Las Vegas, opened with the shortest price of the four Penske drivers. Eight drivers were priced with better chances to win Sunday’s road course race.
For one respected bettor, though, the long odds for Austin Cindric – who is making just his seventh Cup start of the season for Penske – were enticing. The sharp played Cindric to win at the SuperBook’s opening number of 40/1, prompting an immediate move to 25/1, oddsmaker Ed Salmons told NASCAR.com.
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That sharp play notwithstanding, the betting market doesn’t have much faith in Team Penske at Indy. But are the long odds for this weekend’s race a function of Penske’s road course struggles, or are they indicative of broader problems?
The answer depends on who you ask.
Salmons sees issues for Penske beyond Sunday.
“The Penske cars look like they’re just incapable of even competing at this point,” he said. “They’re just so far off.”
Salmons, though, did stress the team’s solid performances with the 750-horsepower package on short tracks, a notion with which Jim Sannes, a NASCAR betting and DFS analyst with numberFire, agrees.
Sannes believes Penske will be a factor on the ovals remaining on the 2021 Cup schedule with the 750-package – Darlington, Richmond, Bristol, Martinsville, and Phoenix.
“For me, it’s not really a bigger issue for them,” Sannes said of the Penske drivers’ road course woes. “The reason I think that goes back to New Hampshire, because we heard Brad Keselowski talk about how they viewed New Hampshire as being kind of measuring stick for how they’ll do on the tracks that matter.”
Keselowski, Logano and Ryan Blaney finished third, fourth and fifth at Loudon, respectively, results Sannes says “undersell how good their cars were there.”
“…. So I think that for this week, it’s specific to road courses,” Sannes said of the Penske pessimism ahead of Sunday, “and it’s not something that worries me a lot for the playoffs.”
Playoff outlook
While the 10-race NASCAR Playoffs features five short-track, 750-horsepower races for Team Penske to strut its stuff, the garage’s three playoff-bound drivers are long shots to win the title. At BetMGM, Logano and Keselowski share 14/1 futures odds, with Blaney at 20/1.
Sannes doesn’t see much value in any of the Penske drivers in the championship market, and their lag in playoff points is a key reason why. It will be difficult to overcome the deficit to be among the final four contenders at the Cup Series Championship in Phoenix.
“The biggest issue for them is the lack of playoff points, because they’ve got just three total wins,” he said. “If you’re trying to make your way to Phoenix, you’re going to need a bigger cushion that. It’s not a concern in terms of performance, but it is a concern in terms of will they have enough playoff points to actually work their way to Phoenix.”
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Back to Cindric
Cindric, the defending Xfinity champ and the current points leader in that series, hasn’t been particularly impressive when he’s stepped up in class this season. He’s finished outside the top 20 in five of his six Cup starts (including 25th on the Circuit Of The Americas and 38th at Road America), and his best result is 15th at the Daytona 500.
Yet the part-time Cup racer now has shorter odds than any of his full-time teammates. At Barstool Sportsbook, Cindric is 20/1, followed by Logano (25/1), Blaney (35/1) and Keselowski (50/1).
Cindric has a 3% chance to win the Verizon 200, according to Sannes’ simulations, which suggests his odds should be around 33/1.
Cindric’s speed at Road America “was awesome before he had a mechanical issue,” Sannes said. “…. He has a bit of an experience edge over this field at this track (with a 2020 Xfinity race under his belt), and he’ll get more experience this weekend (at Saturday’s Xfinity race). I’m okay being high on him. I think that 27/1 (at FanDuel) is short enough where I’m not going to bet him, but I fully understand it.”
Salmons doesn’t seem too nervous about his shop’s liability on the No. 33 Ford.
“Can he run in the top five? Probably, if everything goes right,” the oddsmaker said. “He’s struggled as far as finishes in these races at the Cup level on road courses, but he’s obviously an elite road course driver. It’s just hard to think that right now he can compete with the Hendrick guys just because they’ve been so dominant. I mean, the Gibbs guys can’t compete with the Hendrick guys.”
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