NASCAR betting: Mock props offer peek into remainder of 2021 Cup season

Posted on July 14, 2021July 14, 2021 by Marcus DiNitto

Kurt Busch’s victory at Atlanta Motor Speedway last Sunday marked the first time since the season-opening Daytona 500 that a team outside NASCAR’s “Big 3” took the checkers in a Cup Series race. It broke a streak of 19 races won by a driver from either Hendrick Motorsports, Joe Gibbs Racing or Team Penske.

The win by the driver of the No. 1 Chip Ganassi Racing Chevrolet got us thinking: With 15 races remaining on the 2021 Cup schedule, how many more victories are in store for the non-“Big 3?” And if a sportsbook were to offer such a prop bet, what would the over/under be?

We put that question, plus a few others looking ahead to the rest of the 2021 season, to oddsmaker Ed Salmons and quantitative NASCAR analyst Jim Sannes.

To be clear, these are mock props and not available for wagering at any legal sportsbook that we know of. Nevertheless, they make for fun discussion.

Prop: Over/under number of wins for drivers not from Hendrick, Gibbs or Penske teams in season’s final 15 races

Salmons, who handles NASCAR duties at SuperBook USA in Las Vegas, guesses we’ll see just one more victory from a driver outside the “Big 3” teams. If he were to book it, he’d hang the over/under at either 0.5 wins with heavy vig on the “over,” or 1.5 wins juiced to the “under.”

Sannes, who counts NASCAR among the sports he covers from a betting and DFS perspective at numberFire, would love the plus-money on “over” 1.5, as he projects 2.5 more wins for the non-“Big 3.”

(In fairness, Salmons’ numbers were off the top of his head. We were fortunate to have caught Sannes during the MLB All-Star break, when he had time to run quick simulations. Salmons’ lines are typically not so soft.)

‘The main reason for (projecting 2.5 wins) is there’s Daytona and Talladega left,” Sannes said. “Obviously, (Denny) Hamlin’s a guy you’re going to be turning to for both of those, but you have Ricky Stenhouse (Jr.), you’ve got Aric Almirola, you’ve got some pretty prominent names who have a good shot at winning there. I have the odds of a non-‘Big 3’ team at 33% for both of those races. … Having both Daytona and Talladega remaining on the schedule really does beef that number up.”

Salmons also stressed the randomness of restrictor-plate races is a major influence on how he would price this prop.

Prop: Over/under number of races won by Kyle Larson in the season’s final 15 races

Kyle Larson won three points races in a row earlier this season, has a series-best four victories on the year and is projected to be the points leader heading into the playoffs. But while he remains the favorite to win the Cup championship, his week-to-week dominance has eroded. In fact, he’s the just the fourth betting choice, at 7-1 odds, for Sunday’s race in New Hampshire Motor Speedway.

Salmons ballparked 2.5 more wins for the No. 5 Chevrolet the rest of the way. Sannes’ number is 3.5, although he’d pass on betting Salmons the “over.”

The schedule doesn’t set up well for Larson, according to Sannes. There are only three races remaining on mile-and-a-half tracks, where Larson is strongest, and much of his success with the 750-horsepower package has come on road courses and concrete tracks.

“Michigan, he should be awesome at, and he’s been good at road courses, but the 750 package, outside of Dover and Nashville, hasn’t been that great,” Sannes said. “I view Dover and Nashville separately because they’re concrete, and when I was back testing my model, it did seem like concrete played a role. Larson’s obviously great at Bristol (also concrete) and Dover, but it’s not going to directly translate to me projecting his win odds super high at places like New Hampshire, Richmond or Phoenix, and Martinsville is one of his worst tracks.”

Sannes shook some more salt on his projection of 3.5.

“It’s mostly schedule, but it’s sort of tough to win in the Cup Series, so if you gave me 2.5, I would stay away from it personally,” he said.

RELATED: 2021 Cup Series schedule

Prop: Will Kevin Harvick win a race this season?

Kevin Harvick won nine times last season and amassed 21 victories in the three-year span from 2018-20. But he has yet to win in 2021, and per Salmons, the No. 4 Ford is an underdog to win at all this year.

Our oddsmaker estimated the “no” side of the “Will Harvick win a race” prop as a -130 or -140 favorite, meaning the “yes” would pay in the +110 to +120 range.

At that pricing, the “yes” would be of interest to Sannes, who projects a win total of 0.819 for Harvick and odds of him winning at least one race around 57%, which would make the “yes” odds about -132.

“That’s under the assumption that the upward trajectory doesn’t accelerate,” Sannes said. “And I wouldn’t expect it to. Midseason, it’s hard to make a lot of improvements.”

Sunday’s Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 represents one of Harvick’s better chances to get off the schneid, per Sannes.

“They were a lot faster in Nashville than they’ve been all year,” he said, “and that does influence things for me in New Hampshire.”

Salmons opened Harvick at 16-1 odds to win Sunday.

Marcus DiNitto is a writer and editor living in Charlotte, North Carolina. He has been covering sports for nearly two-and-a-half decades and sports betting for more than 10 years. His first NASCAR betting experience was in 1995 at North Wilkesboro Speedway, where he went 0-for-3 on his matchup picks. Read his articles and follow him on Twitter; do not bet his picks.

Posted on July 14, 2021July 14, 2021 by Zack Albert

Hendrick Motorsports announced a one-year contract extension for driver Kyle Larson that will keep him in the team’s No. 5 Chevrolet through 2023.

The deal comes with a nearly full-season primary sponsorship in the NASCAR Cup Series from Hendrick Automotive Group the next two years. That backing includes an agreement for Larson to use HendrickCars.com branding on his helmet, driver’s suit and gloves in his non-NASCAR racing schedule.

Larson, 28, leads the Cup Series with four victories this season, giving him 10 for his career. He sits as the projected No. 1 seed in the 10-race postseason in his first year with Hendrick Motorsports.

“It’s been a big year for Kyle,” team owner Rick Hendrick said in a news release. “His talent inside the race car has been on full display, and he’s doing amazing things through his foundation and with our partners. I’m proud of his hard work and look forward to having him on our team for many years to come.”

All four of Hendrick Motorsports’ drivers — Larson, Alex Bowman, William Byron and Chase Elliott — are signed through at least the 2022 Cup Series season. Bowman reached a contract extension with the organization on June 18, keeping him in the No. 48 Chevrolet through 2023. Elliott, the defending Cup Series champion, was signed four years ago to an extension through 2022, and Byron’s deal was extended through ’22 just three days after he scored his first Cup Series win in the 2020 regular-season finale.

Larson joined Hendrick Motorsports this season after spending the last six-plus seasons with Chip Ganassi Racing. He was suspended by NASCAR and fired by the team in April 2020 after his use of a racial slur during an iRacing broadcast. He was signed by Hendrick last October shortly after his reinstatement, which is contingent on Larson fulfilling continued outreach efforts that promote diversity and inclusion.

HendrickCars.com is set to sponsor Larson’s No. 5 in 35 of the 38 Cup Series races (including non-points events) next season. Valvoline will serve as the primary sponsor for the remaining three Cup events next season. Hendrick Automotive Group cited increases in website traffic — both overall (a 27% rise) and including significant spikes on days when Larson either led the most laps or won.

“Kyle’s performance on the track has delivered a measurable business return for us,” said Darryl Jackson, vice president of financial services for Hendrick Automotive Group. “The company is on pace for a record year in 2021, and we certainly see our motor sports programs contributing to that success. Racing is in our DNA, and tapping into the passionate fanbases of NASCAR, the NHRA and now Kyle’s grassroots program is both very effective and a perfect fit for who we are.”

Larson won six Cup Series races with the Ganassi operation. He is also a 12-time winner in the Xfinity Series and has two victories in the Camping World Truck Series.

Posted on July 14, 2021July 15, 2021 by Staff Report

See where your favorite driver is pitting for Sunday’s Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway (3 p.m. ET, NBCSN/NBC Sports App, PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

Posted on July 14, 2021July 14, 2021 by Staff Report

Kyle Busch has secured the Busch Pole Award for Sunday’s Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 (3 p.m. ET, NBCSN/NBC Sports App, PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.

Busch will start his No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota from the pole position at the 1.058-mile track. He is a three-time New Hampshire winner in the Cup Series, with his most recent victory there coming in 2017. He’s scheduled to start first for the first time this year in the Cup Series.

Jeb Burton wrapped up the Xfinity Series pole for Saturday’s Ambetter Get Vaccinated 200 (3 p.m. ET, NBCSN/NBC Sports App, PRN, SiriusXM) in the No. 10 Kaulig Racing Chevrolet. He was the runner-up to Busch last weekend at Atlanta Motor Speedway.

The NASCAR Whelen Modified Tour is also in action this weekend at Loudon with Saturday’s Whelen 100 (12:45 p.m. ET, NBC Sports Gold TrackPass).

As NASCAR adapted to COVID-19 protocols last season, practice and qualifying were eliminated at a majority of national-series events to limit at-track time, exposure and to cut race weekend costs. To determine starting lineups, competition officials used grouped draws, added inversions for weekend doubleheaders and eventually adopted a performance-metrics formula. That metrics format remains in place this season, drawing on performance from both individual races and season-long results.

NASCAR’s metrics formula for 2021 weighs:

25 percent: Driver’s finishing position from the previous race
25 percent: Car owner’s finishing position from the previous race
35 percent: Team owner points ranking
15 percent: Fastest lap from the previous race

See the full lineup for Sunday’s Cup Series race below.

Start pos.	Driver	Car #	Team
1	Kyle Busch	18	Joe Gibbs Racing
2	Martin Truex Jr.	19	Joe Gibbs Racing
3	Chase Elliott	9	Hendrick Motorsports
4	Kurt Busch	1	Chip Ganassi Racing
5	Alex Bowman	48	Hendrick Motorsports
6	Denny Hamlin	11	Joe Gibbs Racing
7	Ryan Blaney	12	Team Penske
8	Tyler Reddick	8	Richard Childress Racing
9	Christopher Bell	20	Joe Gibbs Racing
10	Kyle Larson	5	Hendrick Motorsports
11	Brad Keselowski	2	Team Penske
12	Kevin Harvick	4	Stewart-Haas Racing
13	Austin Dillon	3	Richard Childress Racing
14	Matt DiBenedetto	21	Wood Brothers Racing
15	Joey Logano	22	Team Penske
16	William Byron	24	Hendrick Motorsports
17	Chris Buescher	17	Roush Fenway Racing
18	Bubba Wallace	23	23XI Racing
19	Chase Briscoe	14	Stewart-Haas Racing
20	Ross Chastain	42	Chip Ganassi Racing
21	Cole Custer	41	Stewart-Haas Racing
22	Aric Almirola	10	Stewart-Haas Racing
23	Michael McDowell	34	Front Row Motorsports
24	Erik Jones	43	Richard Petty Motorsports
25	Ryan Preece	37	JTG Daugherty Racing
26	Corey LaJoie	7	Spire Motorsports
27	Anthony Alfredo	38	Front Row Motorsports
28	Ryan Newman	6	Roush Fenway Racing
29	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	47	JTG Daugherty Racing
30	Justin Haley	77	Spire Motorsports
31	Daniel Suarez	99	Trackhouse Racing Team
32	BJ McLeod	78	Live Fast Motorsports
33	Garrett Smithley	53	Rick Ware Racing
34	Cody Ware	51	Petty Ware Racing
35	Josh Bilicki	52	Rick Ware Racing
36	Quin Houff	00	StarCom Racing
37	James Davison	15	Rick Ware Racing

Practice and qualifying are tentatively scheduled for eight Cup Series races this year. Two races remain with Busch Pole Qualifying on the schedule — Aug. 15 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway’s road course and the season-ending championship race Nov. 7 at Phoenix Raceway.

Posted on July 13, 2021July 13, 2021 by Staff Report

NASCAR officials issued penalties to four Cup Series teams and two Xfinity Series teams Tuesday for lug-nut violations in last weekend’s events at Atlanta Motor Speedway.

STANDINGS: Cup Series | Xfinity Series

Each of those teams was found with a single unsecured lug nut in post-race checks at the 1.54-mile Georgia track. Those infractions, detailed in Section 10.9.10.4 of the NASCAR Rule Book, resulted in fines for each of the teams’ respective crew chiefs — $10,000 on the Cup Series side and $5,000 in the Xfinity Series.

Fined after Sunday’s Quaker State 400 for the Cup Series were:

• No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota (crew chief Adam Stevens; driver Christopher Bell)
• No. 21 Wood Brothers Racing Ford (crew chief Jonathan Hassler; driver Matt DiBenedetto)
• No. 23 23XI Racing Toyota (crew chief Mike Wheeler; driver Bubba Wallace)
• No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet (crew chief Greg Ives; driver Alex Bowman)

In the Xfinity Series, penalized teams were:

• No. 22 Team Penske Ford (crew chief Brian Wilson; driver Austin Cindric)
• No. 54 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota (crew chief Chris Gayle; race-winning driver Kyle Busch)

Posted on July 13, 2021July 13, 2021 by Zack Albert

A top NASCAR competition official dismissed rumors Tuesday that preliminary findings showed the Next Gen car had performed poorly in a recent crash test.

In a Tuesday morning appearance on SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NASCAR Senior Vice President of Competition Scott Miller said that officials are awaiting a full report from the June 30 crash test at Talladega Superspeedway.

Miller explained the process that led up to the test and shed light on the next steps in the review process before the car’s debut in the 2022 Cup Series. He also said that nothing “alarming” appeared in an initial look at the crash-test data, which will take time to fully analyze.

“There’s a lot of fiction out there,” Miller said, “and what everyone has to realize is that our normal safety testing procedure at the laboratory, so to speak, the proving grounds where we typically set up our impacts and get the data, that was done differently because of COVID, because of the backlog at that facility, so we went and we did that test at Talladega — at a real race track.

“So what everybody needs to understand is when we were able to do that testing — and any safety testing that we do — there are reams of data that come off of that. And we, as far as the timeframe goes, it always takes a while to piece together the complete report on what we saw in a crash. So it’s not like we could … anybody should have expected that we would go crash that car and like, look at a couple of graphs and say, hey, we’re done analyzing this data. We see absolutely nothing in the data that’s alarming, but we want to have a comprehensive report, and I have no idea how all of the rumors started about that it didn’t go well, because it did go well. So that’s where we are, and hopefully we can get that report out.”

The Next Gen vehicle was driven by a robot and fitted with a crash dummy for last month’s test at the 2.66-mile Alabama track. Miller did not provide a concrete date for the report’s release, but said the length of the timetable should not be mistakenly attributed to concerns with the immediate findings. The data has been presented to an independent panel of experts in the biomechanics and safety field for evaluation.

“I’m not sure, I haven’t talked to John (Probst, NASCAR Senior VP of Racing Innovation) and seeing where they are with that and it being presented to everyone,” Miller said. “It shouldn’t be too much longer, but to expect that was going to happen in a day or two was unrealistic to begin with. And maybe we should have communicated that better up front. It’s not like because it’s taking time, it’s not good. That’s obviously how all the rumors get started. We might’ve, should’ve told everyone up front, don’t expect a comprehensive report because it takes time. So that’s where we are with that.”

Miller provided a point-blank answer when asked if the car’s competition debut at Daytona in 2022 was still on schedule as planned. “Absolutely,” he said.

Posted on July 12, 2021July 13, 2021 by Zach Sturniolo

After a hiatus of nearly one month, the NASCAR Whelen Modified Tour hits its biggest stage of the season on Saturday at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.

The modified tour has raced at the 1.058-mile oval in Loudon, New Hampshire, 72 times since the facility first welcomed it in 1990.

As of late, though, the man to beat at the premier stop on the circuit has been Bobby Santos III. Santos has won five of the last seven contests at New Hampshire, including each of the last two, and will make his season debut in the No. 44 car this weekend to defend his winning streak.

RACE INFO: Race Center

Meanwhile, as the circuit holds its seventh race of the 14-race schedule, the fight for the championship points lead remains scorching hot. Patrick Emerling holds the top spot in the standings by a slim three-point margin over defending champion Justin Bonsignore while Tommy Catalano sits third 36 points back. Six-time titlist Doug Coby, the series’ lone multi-time winner in 2021, is tied for fourth with Woody Pitkat at 41 points back despite missing the action on June 12 at Oswego Speedway.

Fans can still purchase Saturday tickets at NHMS.com or watch the action live at 12:45 p.m. ET via TrackPass on NBC Sports Gold.

Whelen 100

WHAT TO WATCH FOR:

While Santos, the 2010 series champion, carries his wicked streak into Saturday, he won’t be the only part-time addition making a splash in Saturday’s party.

NASCAR Cup Series regulars Ryan Newman and Ryan Preece will join the fun Saturday, highlighting yet another stout entry list for the Whelen 100.

Newman is a two-time winner at the “Magic Mile,” winning both modified events there in 2010, and will drive the No. 53 car for owner Mike Curb. The 2002 NASCAR Cup Series Rookie of the Year and 2014 series runner-up has a strong track record in New Hampshire with two wins, nine top fives and 11 top 10s in 20 starts. Newman already has one modified start under his belt this year in the season opener at Martinsville Speedway, though that was ended prematurely due to an engine failure.

Preece, meanwhile, will jump into the No. 6 car in hopes for his first triumph at New Hampshire.

In 24 starts there, Preece has racked up seven top fives and 12 top 10s, coming closest to claiming his first N.H. victory in 2017. That day, he led 54 laps, but Santos got the best of him late and led the final two laps en route to the win. Preece has started four of the six races on the tour this season and finished second in his last outing at Oswego Speedway.

Back in the world of modified regulars, Coby enters on the heels of a June 20 victory at Riverhead Raceway ahead of the series’ hiatus. Coby is a four-time winner at the “Magic Mile” and has accrued 13 top fives and 20 top 10s to go along with that four-pack of victories.

Points-leader Emerling claimed his first win of the season on April 30 at Stafford Motor Speedway but is still looking for his first New Hampshire win in his 21st start, despite racking up six top fives and nine top 10s. Emerling will also pull double duty on Saturday as he hops behind the wheel of the No. 23 Chevrolet for Our Motorsports in the NASCAR Xfinity Series race later Saturday afternoon.

Bonsignore, meanwhile, is a 2016 winner at New Hampshire and claimed the May 29 win at Jennerstown Speedway earlier this season. Second in points, Bonsignore carries that past win, eight top fives and 12 top 10s into this weekend’s contest.

Don’t rule out Pitkat, either. In 27 starts, Pitkat has one win (2014), two top fives and 13 top 10s at New Hampshire. However, Pitkat has struggled to relocate his magic there lately, finishing inside the top 10 just once in the past eight Loudon races.

Entering third in points, Catalano, 23, has made just five New Hampshire starts and has yet to find steady success, earning just one top-10 finish so far with a ninth-place effort in the first of two New Hampshire races in 2019. His last two starts have included a driveshaft failure in 2019 and a crash DNF one year ago.

RACING REFERENCE:

RACE FACTS

Race	Whelen 100
Date	Saturday, July 17, 2021
Track	New Hampshire Motor Speedway
Layout	1.058-mile oval
Location	Loudon, New Hampshire
Start time	12:45 p.m. ET
Laps	100
Miles	105.8
Tickets	NHMS.com
TV channel	NBCSN (Delayed: Wednesday, Aug. 11, 1 p.m. ET)
Live stream	TrackPass on NBC Sports Gold

RACEDAY SCHEDULE: Saturday, June 19 — Garage opens: 6:30 a.m.; Practice: 9:45-10:45 a.m.; Qualifying: 11:30 a.m.; Race: 12:45 p.m.

CREW CHIEF HANDOUT: The starting field for the Whelen 100 is limited to 28 starters including provisionals. The field will be set by qualifying (1-22) and provisional process per the entry blank (23-28) for the Whelen 100. In the event that qualifying as stated on the entry blank does not take place for any unforeseen circumstance, the field will be set in accordance with the 2021 NASCAR Touring Series Rule Book.

QUALIFYING: Two consecutive qualifying laps. Faster lap determines qualifying position. Adjustments or repairs may not be made on the vehicle after the vehicle has taken the green flag at the start-finish line. NASCAR reserves the right to have more than one vehicle engage in qualifying runs at the same time.

The maximum tire allotment available for this event is as follows: The maximum tire allotment available for this event is twelve (12) tires per team. All tires used for qualifying and the race must be purchased at the track and scanned by Hoosier, unless otherwise approved in advance by the Series Director. Four (4) tires must be used for qualifying and to begin the race. All qualifying tires must remain in impound until released by NASCAR Officials. The remaining tire allotment may be used for practice and/or change tires during the event.

The tire change rule is four (4) tires, any position.

QUALIFYING AND SPECIAL AWARDS

$400 Phil Kurze Halfway Leader Award presented by Josten’s per event award to the race leader at the halfway point of the event, regardless if the race is running under green or yellow.

$600 Hoosier Tire “Lap Leader” per event award to the eligible car owner whose driver leads the most laps in each event. In the event of a tie, the award will go to the highest finishing car in the event.

$500 Hoosier Tire “Hard Charger” per event award to the highest finishing eligible driver who advances the most positions during the course of the race. In the case of a tie, the highest finishing driver will receive the award.

$500 Hoosier Tire “Most Improved” per event award to the eligible new team/organization whose driver improves the most positions during the course of the race. In the event of a tie, the award will go to the highest finishing car in the event. If money is not awarded during this event, funds will roll over to the next event and will continue to roll over until an eligible new team/organization claims the money.

$1,000 Mayhew Tools Dominator Pole per event award to the driver with the fastest qualifying time eligible to participate under the Manufacturers’ Prize Money Conditions.

$550 Sunoco Spec Fuel award divided: 1st-$300 5th-$150 10th-$100.

$3,500 Whelen Engineering “Winner of the Race” award to the winning driver.

Whelen Non-Starter award will be paid to the first 15 competitors throughout the season who pass inspection, practice, attempt to qualify but fail to make the feature event.

Posted on July 12, 2021July 12, 2021 by Zack Albert

JR Motorsports announced Monday that Michael Annett will miss Saturday’s NASCAR Xfinity Series race with a stress fracture in his right femur.

Josh Berry, a part-time teammate to Annett this season, will instead pilot JRM’s No. 1 Chevrolet in Saturday’s Ambetter Get Vaccinated 200 (3 p.m. ET, NBCSN, PRN, SiriusXM) at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.

Annett was replaced in a late-hour driver change on the grid for last Saturday’s Xfinity Series event at Atlanta Motor Speedway. Cup Series regular Austin Dillon filled in and drove the No. 1 Chevy to an 11th-place finish in the Credit Karma Money 250.

JRM officials said that Annett was hampered by a leg injury, which also forced him out of last Friday’s Camping World Truck Series event at Knoxville Raceway. The team stated that a Monday MRI revealed the fracture and that Annett is scheduled for surgery Tuesday.

JRM indicated that doctors said Annett should heal in time for the series’ Aug. 7 race at Watkins Glen International. After the New Hampshire event, the series takes a two-week break for the Summer Olympics before resuming at the New York road course.

Officials for JR Motorsports said that the team had applied for a medical waiver so that Annett may retain his postseason eligibility. A NASCAR spokesperson confirmed Monday afternoon that the waiver had been granted. Despite missing a race, Annett remained 10th in the Xfinity Series standings after Atlanta.

Berry, last year’s national champion in the NASCAR Advance Auto Parts Weekly Series, has competed in 15 Xfinity Series races this season — 12 for JR Motorsports and three for Jordan Anderson Racing. He scored his first Xfinity Series win in April, driving JRM’s No. 8 Chevrolet to victory at Martinsville Speedway.

Posted on July 12, 2021July 12, 2021 by Zack Albert

Kurt Busch’s victory Sunday at Atlanta Motor Speedway had multiple ripple effects on the evolving NASCAR Cup Series postseason picture. Five races remain in the regular season, and the window for solidifying playoff status is closing.

RELATED: Official results | Cup Series standings

Here’s how Sunday’s 400-miler shook up the outlook for several drivers on opposite sides of the playoff bubble:

Looking out for No. 1: Kurt Busch virtually wrapped up his ninth consecutive playoff berth, marking his eighth straight season with at least one win. The announced sale of his Chip Ganassi Racing team just 11 days earlier threw his status for next season into further uncertainty, but now he has the elements of a solid send-off for CGR and potential leverage for a 2022 ride.

“Our win last year at Vegas was a long time ago,” Busch said, “and so to update that and to make ourselves playoff eligible, it’s a huge feather in the cap for everybody that’s part of that organization to keep pushing and to give our best all the way to Phoenix.”

Busch entered Atlanta as the last competitor provisionally in the 16-driver playoff field and a 33-1 shot to win in the Vegas sportsbooks. He now ranks among the 12 regular-season winners, taking the upper hand on those still trying to qualify on the basis of points.

MORE: NASCAR Playoff Watch 2021

Four on the floor: With a dozen playoff berths snapped up by regular-season winners, just four open spots remain. Right now, those slots are provisionally filled by top points earners (in order) Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick, Austin Dillon and Tyler Reddick.

Four up-for-grabs positions in five races — a schedule that includes two road courses and an unpredictable Daytona finale — leaves the tantalizing doomsday scenario of more than 16 regular-season winners as a remote possibility. Highly unlikely given the strength of 2021’s winners thus far, but still …

Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images

Reddick braving the bubble: The No. 8 Richard Childress Racing crew seemed to sense that Sunday’s outcome could have a negative effect on Tyler Reddick’s playoff prospects, telling their driver before the final stage: “We’re going to need the 1 (Busch) to slow down here. We don’t need him winning.” Busch did, and the result dropped Reddick into the precarious 16th berth.

Reddick has finished among the top 10 in three consecutive races, but a first-time winner in the final five races could spell trouble for him. “I know we can make the playoffs,” he said post-race. “We just have to continue to push.”

Points of order: Before Atlanta, Busch’s hold on the final playoff spot was just 25 points above Chris Buescher, the first driver provisionally out. After Atlanta, with Reddick the new last man in, the cut line is now a 96-point separation between 16th and 17th in the playoff standings.

Barring a monumental collapse by non-winners above the cut, the avenue for a driver to race his way into a playoff spot on the basis of points is extremely slim. Breaking through for a win will remain the best bet for the current postseason outsiders.

Regular-season title twists: After Denny Hamlin was knocked back in the running order by a Lap 163 pit-road speeding penalty, Kyle Larson stood poised to take over the series points lead that Hamlin had held continuously since the second race of the season. Just 48 laps later, Larson’s own speeding violation thwarted that opportunity, keeping Hamlin atop the standings for another week. Hamlin finished 13th at Atlanta, with Larson 18th.

Hamlin’s lead grew from a scant three points to just 10 after Atlanta as the pursuit of the regular-season championship nears its end. The title carries with it a 15-point playoff bonus, a tidy incentive for the winner.

Posted on July 11, 2021July 12, 2021 by Zack Albert

A Chip Ganassi Racing operation that’s about to transform next season showed it still has some teamwork left in the tank Sunday at Atlanta Motor Speedway, much to Kyle Busch’s dismay.

RELATED: Official results | At-track photos

Kurt Busch outlasted Kyle in a battle of brothers in Sunday’s Quaker State 400, helped by a late-race traffic jam that gave him the lead to stay in the 236th of 260 laps. Central to that traffic delay was Ganassi teammate Ross Chastain, whose No. 42 Chevrolet slowed the progress of Kyle Busch’s No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota and allowed Kurt Busch to pull alongside in the No. 1 Chevy. Kurt Busch drove on to his first Cup Series win of the season, and his brother was left in second place — just shy of securing his 60th Cup Series win.

“Would’ve been a hell of a lot better if it wasn’t for some butthead. But it is what it is,” Kyle Busch told PRN Radio. “It was ours to lose and we lost it.”

RELATED: Chastain explains the move

The victory sealed a provisional playoff spot in Chip Ganassi’s final season as owner of the two-car effort. Trackhouse Racing announced June 30 that it had purchased Ganassi’s organization and assets, setting a course for a two-car team with Daniel Suarez and another driver to be named later.

The futures of Kurt Busch and Chastain may be uncertain for now, but their late-race cooperation equaled quite the farewell gift for Ganassi’s final campaign.

“Shake and bake! Yeah, and the 42, he did his job as a teammate,” Kurt Busch told NBC Sports post-race. “Ross is going to get a little flak for it, but that’s what it takes to be a good teammate at the right moment, so I couldn’t be more proud of Ross Chastain. I’ll pay him back eventually, but right now this is our No. 1 car in Victory Lane.”

Sean Gardner | Getty Images

Chastain’s 21st-place finish in his 100th Cup Series start was more eventful than the stat sheet would imply. He was fighting to remain on the lead lap when the two brothers — who had been dominant all day — closed on his No. 42 entry in their late-race contest for the lead.

Chastain didn’t clear a path for Kyle Busch as he led down the stretch, and that decision allowed Kurt Busch to snatch the inside lane away. The three drivers eventually worked through Turns 1 and 2 three-wide before Kurt Busch seized an advantage he would not relinquish down the stretch.

Chastain deflected when asked about Kyle Busch’s lot in their late-race scrum, but acknowledged lending a helping hand to his teammate.

“Kurt asked for the bottom so I gave him that lane,” said Chastain, who joined Chip Ganassi Racing full-time just this season. “I was racing to stay on the lead lap. I’m very aware of what’s going on on the track around me. Kurt asked me for the bottom and I gave it to him. …

“To see a Chip Ganassi car in Victory Lane with all that’s happened the last couple of weeks and all this year, there is nothing I want more. One team, one goal and that’s to win.”

There was little consolation to the No. 18 group, which stood out as the lone reliable contender to the elder Busch’s efforts with the No. 1 car. The Busch brothers split the stage wins, and Kyle Busch led 91 laps — second only to Kurt Busch’s 144. No other driver led more than 15 laps.

“Good car all day,” No. 18 spotter Tony Hirschman said on the cool-down lap. “Just got teamed up on there, dirtied up.” Kyle Busch seconded that assessment in his post-race remarks with NBC Sports, saying that his tires were burned up late in that run, but adding: “It shows you what kind of driver he is.”

Kyle Busch did drop in on the No. 1 team’s celebration to provide compulsory congratulations on his brother’s win, a brotherly 1-2 result that Kurt said he hoped would not linger with any sore feelings.

“He did stop by Victory Lane and do the Kyle Busch grumpy. That’s what I expected,” Kurt Busch said. Yeah, again, what happened on track was the perfect scenario for a teammate to do the work that he needed to do. If I’m running third, Ross isn’t part of the equation. That was exactly what a teammate needs to do, and Ross did that in a way that gave me a sense of pride on the education and the mentorship that I have helped Ross with this year. It was a perfect give-back.

“Can we do that in the playoffs? No. Can you do that in a regular season where one guy has won and one guy is trying to run hard? Today was a perfect scenario for that to unfold, and Kyle will get over it pretty quick. … Yeah, I believe that no line was crossed, and it was that right finesse to make it happen.”