Analysis: Did Team Penske, Wood Brothers follow Hendrick blueprint in driver shuffle?

Posted on July 15, 2021 by Pat DeCola

Six years ago, Hendrick Motorsports sported a driver lineup of Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson and Kasey Kahne for the 2015 NASCAR Cup Series season.

The team fared admirably, with nine wins (five of which belonged to a certain eventual seven-time champion), one of the most memorable victories in the gold-standard organization’s history (“We’re goin’ to Homestead!”) and with it a Championship 4 appearance.

The writing, however, was very much on the wall. The youth movement was coming — and in a hurry.

All four drivers were in their age-35 season or later, teenage phenom Chase Elliott was fresh off the 2014 Xfinity Series title and while the wins were there, Joe Gibbs Racing, Stewart-Haas Racing and Team Penske were putting some serious pressure on the most victorious franchise in the sport’s history.

Team owner Rick Hendrick spent the next half-decade re-tooling his team roster, with Elliott taking over Gordon’s No. 24 (now in the No. 9), Alex Bowman making his way into the No. 88 (now the No. 48), Byron hopping in the 24 after Elliott slid over to claim his father Bill’s old number and Kyle Larson joining the fray this year after Johnson stepped away from his full-time NASCAR duties.

Average Hendrick driver age in 2015: 39.25.

Average Hendrick driver age in 2021: 26.0.

Unquestionably the team to beat in 2021 having won 10 of the season’s 21 races, the reshuffling has worked. So why bring this up now?

Well, Hendrick isn’t the only organization susceptible to its drivers eventually aging out of competitiveness, and it might’ve provided the blueprint for how to make the transition to younger talent with a lineup potentially penciled in for the next decade.

The Ford-aligned Team Penske and Wood Brothers Racing shook up NASCAR Silly Season in a big way Thursday morning, announcing that 22-year-old Austin Cindric and 20-year-old Harrison Burton would be making the move up to Cup to pilot the Nos. 2 and 21 Mustangs, effectively replacing Brad Keselowski (37 years old) and Matt DiBenedetto (will be 30 on July 27), respectively. The pair will join team veterans in 2017 champ Joey Logano (31) and a winner for both organizations in Ryan Blaney (27).

NEWS: Austin Cindric, Harrison Burton to Cup in 2022 | Harrison Burton teams with Wood Bros.

“I don’t know whether we necessarily looked at Hendrick and said, ‘oh, let’s copy that,’ but certainly, yes, that is in some ways what they did, two, three, four years ago where they reset a driver lineup with a younger lineup and brought them up together,” said Mark Rushbrook, Global Director at Ford Performance. “It’s clearly, with other things, worked well for them. I definitely like the model with teamwork potential between Harrison and Austin to be able to lean on Joey and Ryan and that combination to have great performance across all four cars.”

Penske/Wood Brothers had their collective hands forced, to a degree, with Keselowski angling for an ownership stake at his current home.

“He wanted to have ownership and the way we’re structured, that wasn’t available,” said Penske after Thursday’s news broke. The two sides were unable to come to an agreement for beyond 2021, making the 2012 champ a free agent at the end of the year and clearing the path for a possible move to Roush Fenway Racing in a driver/ownership role.

Last fall, the teams announced Cindric would replace DiBenedetto in the No. 21. With Keselowski’s departure, the door remained open for the team to potentially retain DiBenedetto, but it chose to notify him roughly two weeks before his Aug. 1 contract deadline that it would be going in a different, younger direction with Burton. The No. 21 team is winless since 2017 and, while he’s hit his marks a few times this year, DiBenedetto is averaging a finish of 18.2 after a career-best 14.8 last year.

In addition to underwhelming performance out of the 21 car, NASCAR itself is about to enter a new frontier. As a new era of stock car auto racing is ushered in next season with the dawn of the Next Gen vehicle, the Wood Brothers saw that as a clean slate for all drivers in the series, regardless of tenure.

Thus, the perfect time to start anew and build for the future.

“Keep in mind, the Next Gen car is coming. That’s a white sheet of paper so far as drivers. White sheet of paper for everybody, but drivers in particular,” said team president and co-owner Eddie Wood. “So we felt that that’s a good time to bring in a young rookie. So, we made this decision to try to figure out what we wanted to do. We could bring a young rookie in to team up with Austin, obviously now going into the 2, and those two guys could work together and develop themselves into great race car drivers. Being rookies, they’re both on the same level and this new car, like I said, it’s a white sheet of paper that even if you’re a 20-year-veteran, you’re really not going to have a lot on a rookie. Everybody is kind of starting in the same place.”

With plenty of Silly Season shoes to drop before the end of the year and the ’22 Next Gen debut, it’s clear the Penske coalition is forward-focused and has a four-driver lineup (Wood Brothers has a technical alliance with Penske) set to contend for a decade-plus. One has to wonder if other organizations will follow suit at some point — Joe Gibbs Racing’s four drivers hold an average age of 35.75, for what it’s worth — or if premier-series experience still holds the value it once did.

One thing we do know?

The future isn’t coming. It’s already here.

MORE: Key players in Silly Season | Silly Season tracker

Posted on July 15, 2021July 15, 2021 by Terrin Waack

The main, and he claims only, reason Rick Hendrick has a history of resistance toward his drivers competing in any race car outside of the NASCAR Cup Series is because of safety concerns. He didn’t, and really still doesn’t, want them to risk getting hurt.

Then he signed Kyle Larson, an avid dirt racer, and Larson became Hendrick Motorsports’ winningest driver in the Cup ranks this season with a series-best four points-paying victories through 21 events.

“I’ve changed my mind on the whole process,” Hendrick said. “I think driving big horsepower cars out of control has helped him a tremendous amount in the Cup racing. His car control is steel. So, you’ve got to be willing to change. I guess these guys have worked me over enough. I’ve done it.”

Hendrick loosened the reins.

Larson hits the dirt as he pleases, though he agreed to dial back when the NASCAR Playoffs begin. Reigning Cup Series champion Chase Elliott is starting to dabble in multiple leagues, plural. Teammates Alex Bowman (sprint car) and William Byron (iRacing, albeit simulation) are also involved in different forms of racing.

The argument is it helps drivers hone their craft. It also — a newer realization — gives sponsors further exposure.

On Wednesday, Larson not only signed a contract extension with Hendrick Motorsports through 2023, but Hendrick Automotive Group also announced it’ll back Larson for the two full years, including his non-NASCAR racing schedule.

“When you look at a driver and their brand, you often think of them and the car that they drove and the sponsor that was on it,” Larson said. “Jeff Gordon and DuPont. Jimmie (Johnson) and Lowe’s. I hope it’s me with Hendrick Cars on my car for my whole career.”

At 28 years old, Larson has time to build that type of driver-sponsor relationship. Gordon retired from full-time racing at 44. Johnson left NASCAR at 45.

Larson is in just his first full-time season with Hendrick Motorsports, too. He has the four regular-season wins, which already matches his career-high mark with 15 races remaining in 2021, and an additional exhibition victory from the All-Star Race. Larson then boasts 10 wins beyond NASCAR this year, giving him 56 dirt triumphs since January 2020.

“For us, it’s from a marketing perspective, it’s a brand extension,” said Brian Johnson, Hendrick Automotive Group’s vice president of marketing. “Kyle talked about brands being associated with drivers throughout history. We want to have the same effect with him. So, whenever he’s in a late model, a sprint car, whatever — whatever he’s in — we want that HendrickCars.com brand associated with him because it touches a different audience.”

Different audiences lead to a bigger overall audience.

The proof is in the pudding there. HendrickCars.com has an existing presence in the NHRA drag-racing world as the primary sponsor for Greg Anderson, who’s one win away from holding the all-time Pro Stock record.

“I couldn’t believe when I went over to the drag race how many T-shirts and Hendrick Cars stuff was there,” Hendrick said. “I think we’re going to look at every opportunity there is.”

It has been a rather eye-opening experience. Because the benefits of racing go even beyond the competition and publicity bonuses. Hendrick has had grassroots fans apply to be mechanics for his Cup Series teams, and he is able to tell them about the opportunities at the dealerships instead.

There are positives to a driver racing in non-NASCAR fields, though the threat of injury impacting their NASCAR careers does remain.

“I want to say I don’t encourage it,” Hendrick said. “But I’m all for it if it’s something they want to do and they feel really motivated to do it.”

Posted on July 15, 2021July 15, 2021 by Staff Report

In a nearly nine-minute video posted to Facebook, Matt DiBenedetto did not hold back his emotions about losing his seat for the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series season with the No. 21 Wood Brothers Racing Ford.

DiBenedetto revealed that he learned of the news yesterday that Harrison Burton would pilot the famed No. 21 in the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series season and said rather bluntly, “it does suck.”

NEWS: Austin Cindric, Harrison Burton to Cup in 2022 | Harrison Burton teams with Wood Bros.

“I’m going to be super honest. I’m not going to try and hide how I feel and what I feel,” DiBenedetto said. “You guys know what you see is what you get. Sometimes good, sometimes bad. Found out yesterday. When I found out, I tried to be like OK, been through this before. How do I handle this? God has a plan for me. There’s a greater plan. …

“But you know what? I didn’t really sleep last night and I thought about it and it’s OK to have human emotion and I’m not going to lie to you, it’s OK to be pissed off, angry and bitter and all of the above. It just is what it is. We’re humans. We’re not perfect.”

MORE: Key players in Silly Season | Silly Season tracker

DiBenedetto reflected a bit on his time with the Wood Brothers — a tenure that will last two seasons (2020-21) and saw him nearly win at Talladega Superspeedway this spring. He called the Woods “family to me” and that he wants “to get that 100th win for them bad.”

The 29-year-old expressed frustration with his season to date as he sits outside the playoff picture in 18th in points heading to New Hampshire especially after he made the NASCAR Playoffs in 2020. He referred to the 21 team as “broken for a while” and how it “took too long” to shake things up. The Wood Brothers made a crew chief change before the All-Star Race with Jonathan Hassler taking over for Greg Erwin and the driver indicated that the change gave his team a jump-start with back-to-back top 10s at Road America and Atlanta Motor Speedway.

“Our team is clicking,” DiBenedetto said of his July runs thus far. “Finally. But guess what? It’s too late. I know it’s going to work out like it’s supposed to, but I’m just expressing my frustration with the way it is. I’m getting the (expletive) end of the deal. I’m not angry at any one in particular. It doesn’t make the situation not suck.”

RELATED: Wood Brothers through the years

Now, DiBenedetto finds himself in a position he has been in before. A pending free agent — looking for a new ride. It worked out for him when he bet on himself to leave Go Fas Racing in 2018 for Leavine Family Racing in 2019. And it worked out again when there was no seat for him at Leavine but he was able to land with the Wood Brothers and replace the retiring Paul Menard for the 2020 season.

Despite the bad news, the driver remains as optimistic as ever that his time in Victory Lane is coming.

“There’s still a lot of season left,” DiBenedetto said. “The positives are we do have our team on track so we can go kick ass. That’s the great thing that’s already shown. And I’m appreciative and I want to desperately get the 100th win for the Wood Brothers because like I said, they are and always will be family to me. And I am super appreciative of the opportunity.

“I’m here to win in the Cup Series. I am going to. Through all the heartache, all the frustration, all the obstacles, all the craziness … I am going to overcome all that and we are going to win. I feel confident that we are in the best position to go out there and do that finally and my future is going to be full of that and we’re going to have success.”

Posted on July 15, 2021July 15, 2021 by Official NASCAR Release

DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. — NASCAR and Ruoff Mortgage, a full-service residential mortgage company with 70-plus brick and mortar retail locations and a national online consumer direct division, announced today a multiyear partnership that will designate the company as the “Official Mortgage Partner of NASCAR.”

The wide-ranging agreement includes branding of the most coveted real estate in all of motorsports, Victory Lane. Beginning at Watkins Glen International, Ruoff Mortgage will be the presenting sponsor of Victory Lane for the Cup Series, Xfinity Series and the Camping World Truck Series across all NASCAR-owned tracks. This is the first time in 20 years that this prominent branding asset has become available. NASCAR fans will enjoy Victory Lane’s fresh look that incorporates Ruoff’s signature corporate color palette of teal, navy, and orange, as well as a visual nod to their residential mortgage services, including their stepping stone avatar and a pitched roof design. Winning drivers will receive a warm “Welcome Home” message as they enter into the newly redesigned space.

“The best drivers in the world compete to park their car in Victory Lane and we are excited to have Ruoff Mortgage be a part of that celebratory moment each weekend,” said Jeff Wohlschlaeger, Vice President, Chief Sales Officer, NASCAR. “Victory Lane offers Ruoff Mortgage a highly visible position at the track and will deliver tremendous exposure to the most brand loyal fan base in sports.”

Ruoff Mortgage, a family-owned and operated business based out of Fort Wayne, Indiana, was founded in 1984. Over the past several years, Ruoff Mortgage has experienced tremendous growth in loan volume and sales, landing them a spot on the prestigious Inc. 5000 Fastest Growing Companies in America List for 8 years in a row. With this multi-faceted partnership, Ruoff Mortgage will broaden its exposure in sports and entertainment venues on a national level. The agreement with NASCAR joins their extensive list of more than 50 partnerships, including the Indianapolis Colts, Andretti Autosport, Cincinnati Reds and Columbus Blue Jackets, to name a few.

“Today’s announcement strategically aligns with our company’s brand. In order to be ‘Welcome(d) Home’ to Victory Lane, drivers must be the fastest on the track, leading the way. Similarly, Ruoff’s goal is to continue to find innovative ways to improve the mortgage process for our homebuyers, giving them the fastest, most efficient route to the finish line at the closing table,” said Mark Music, Ruoff President & CEO. “We are proud to be a leader in the mortgage industry and are excited to introduce drivers and their teams and race fans to Ruoff in Victory Lane.”

As part of the Official Partnership, Ruoff Mortgage will engage an exclusive group of Official NASCAR Partners that comprise the NASCAR Fuel For Business. The business-to-business environment offers unique opportunities for many companies to bypass the time and layers of corporate coordination to construct customized deals that help address specific business needs.

To learn more about Ruoff Mortgage, click here.

Posted on July 15, 2021July 15, 2021 by Team Release

STUART, VA (July 15, 2021) – Harrison Burton, a second-generation driver and four-time NASCAR Xfinity Series race winner, will pilot the famed No. 21 Ford Mustang for Wood Brothers Racing beginning in 2022, the team announced today. Burton will become the latest driver in a long list of legendary names that have piloted the No. 21 Ford for the Woods when he takes over the seat beginning at the 2022 Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway. Austin Cindric, who had previously been announced as the driver for the No. 21 Wood Brothers Ford Mustang in 2022, will now move over to Team Penske to drive the team’s No. 2 Mustang, opening the door for Burton to make a jump to the NASCAR Cup Series full-time.

Burton, the son of former NASCAR Cup Series driver and current NBC race analyst Jeff Burton, has been a mainstay in NASCAR’s lower divisions since arriving on the scene in the Truck Series at just 18 years of age in 2019. In 2020, Burton won four races in the NASCAR Xfinity Series (Fontana, Homestead, Texas and Martinsville) en route to a seventh-place finish in the final point standings and series Rookie of the Year honors.

This season, the 20-year-old Burton has five top-fives and 11 top-10 finishes in 18 races and sits fifth in the Xfinity Series point standings.

“Since I began racing quarter midgets, the hope and goal was always to become a full-time driver in the NASCAR Cup Series,” said Burton. “Now, I get to do this with one of the most storied teams in NASCAR history in the Wood Brothers and with an association with Ford Motor Company and Ford Performance. I don’t think I could have dreamt of a better situation to put myself in when it comes to the start of my NASCAR Cup Series career. Add to that the technical alliance with Team Penske and the knowledge I’ll gain from working with their drivers and I’m really excited for 2022 and the future. This is a great opportunity for me and I can’t thank Eddie and Len Wood enough for giving me this chance.”

Wood Brothers Racing is the oldest active NASCAR team and one of the winningest teams in series history. The team currently has 99 victories at NASCAR’s top level, with the likes of David Pearson, Cale Yarborough, Neil Bonnett, Dan Gurney, AJ Foyt and Buddy Baker all visiting Victory Lane with the team. The organization also currently enjoys a technical relationship with Team Penske, which will continue into 2022, along with major support from Ford Performance.

Sponsorship for the No. 21 will be announced at a later date, but will once again include support from Ford Quick Lane and Motorcraft.

“As a team owner, you always want to keep an eye for the future and what’s best for your organization in hopes to set yourself up for success long-term,” said team President and Co-Owner Eddie Wood. “As things have progressed and changed over the last few months, we had the chance to look at what our options are and when we determined that Harrison would be available for our team, we wanted to jump at the opportunity to work with him. Harrison is young, but comes from a family full of successful race car drivers. The advice and support they can offer to Harrison as he makes this transition will be very important to his success. What a lot of us forget is that he is not even 21 years old yet and has only been racing in both the Truck Series and Xfinity Series for a couple of years. So when we looked at the future and finding someone to build our program around, Harrison seemed like a great option.”

“We are quite excited to begin working with Harrison and 2022 is perfect timing,” said team co-owner Len Wood. “With the introduction of the new Next Gen car next year, we have the ability to grow with him and build our program around what he wants. We don’t want to say it puts him on a level playing field, because there are a lot of great drivers in the Cup Series, but having a rookie come in at the same time a new car is introduced will help build us a solid foundation and hopefully get us off to a strong start.”

Additional details surrounding the 2022 season, including partners, will be announced at a later date.

Posted on July 15, 2021July 15, 2021 by Staff Report

The NASCAR garage awakened to the news of a major driver lineup shuffle among the Ford Performance group on Thursday morning, seeing a title winner slated to vacate his championship ride, the reigning Xfinity Series champ set to take hold of it and another Xfinity standout making the move up to the Cup Series for the 2022 season.

Team Penske confirmed 2012 premier series champion Brad Keselowski would depart the No. 2 Ford after the season “to pursue other opportunities within the sport.” Austin Cindric is set to make the full-time move up to Cup to pilot the entry starting next season. Cindric had previously been announced as the next driver to pilot the famed No. 21 Wood Brothers Racing Ford in 2022 — instead that distinction will go to Harrison Burton, currently the driver of the No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota in Xfinity.

“Austin is a champion and has proven his abilities both on and off the track,” said Roger Penske in the team’s release. “The Cup Series is a big step for any rookie but making this move now, in conjunction with the introduction of the new Next Gen car, makes sense. He has gained valuable experience this year competing in a handful of races at the Cup level and he has shown that he belongs out there.”

Cindric rode a six-win, 19 top-five season to last year’s middle division title, his first at the national series level. He’s on pace to repeat, with four wins in 2021 and a firm hold at the top of the points standings over former Penske driver AJ Allmendinger.

The move is somewhat full circle for Cindric and Keselowski. The former began his national series career in 2015 driving for Brad Keselowski Racing in the Truck Series. All of Cindric’s 29 starts in that series came with BKR.

“Throughout my NASCAR career, I’ve grown a lot as a driver and an individual,” Cindric said in a team release. “There are so many individuals within the walls of Team Penske that have elevated me to a level that matches this opportunity. The support towards my development from Roger, Team Penske, and all of our partners has been the leading factor towards race wins and a championship.

“The No. 2 car is iconic to this sport and is a number that represents the foundation of this team. It is a great honor and a great responsibility to continue that role. As 2022 gets closer, I am excited to embrace that. Until then, my focus remains on winning another Xfinity Series Championship.”

At Wood Brothers, Burton will replace Matt DiBenedetto, who has piloted the No. 21 Ford the past two seasons. Meanwhile, Keselowski has been rumored to be making a move to Roush Fenway Racing’s Fords in a driver/owner role.

pic.twitter.com/XO32CqJvzS

— Brad Keselowski (@keselowski) July 15, 2021

“Since I began racing quarter midgets, the hope and goal was always to become a full-time driver in the NASCAR Cup Series,” Burton said in a Wood Brothers release. “Now, I get to do this with one of the most storied teams in NASCAR history in the Wood Brothers and with an association with Ford Motor Company and Ford Performance. I don’t think I could have dreamt of a better situation to put myself in when it comes to the start of my NASCAR Cup Series career. Add to that the technical alliance with Team Penske and the knowledge I’ll gain from working with their drivers and I’m really excited for 2022 and the future. This is a great opportunity for me and I can’t thank Eddie and Len Wood enough for giving me this chance.”

Burton has five top fives and 11 top-10 finishes in 18 races this season, sitting fifth in the standings. The son of former NASCAR Cup Series driver and current NBC race analyst Jeff Burton, the 20-year-old Burton has participated full-time in NASCAR’s Xfinity and Camping World Truck Series since 2019. He won four Xfinity races last year en route to an eighth-place finish in the final point standings and series Rookie of the Year honors.

“As a team owner, you always want to keep an eye for the future and what’s best for your organization in hopes to set yourself up for success long-term,” said team president and co-owner Eddie Wood in a team release. “As things have progressed and changed over the last few months, we had the chance to look at what our options are and when we determined that Harrison would be available for our team, we wanted to jump at the opportunity to work with him. Harrison is young, but comes from a family full of successful race car drivers. The advice and support they can offer to Harrison as he makes this transition will be very important to his success. What a lot of us forget is that he is not even 21 years old yet and has only been racing in both the Truck Series and Xfinity Series for a couple of years. So when we looked at the future and finding someone to build our program around, Harrison seemed like a great option.”

Additionally, Team Penske announced that Discount Tire will remain a key sponsor moving forward on both the No. 2 of Cindric and the No. 12 of Ryan Blaney in 2022. The remainder of Cindric’s partner lineup will be announced at a later date.

Posted on July 14, 2021July 14, 2021 by Zack Albert

Rick Hendrick has his four NASCAR Cup Series drivers locked up through the 2022 season, with two of them signed to contract extensions through 2023 in a four-week span. The ink might not be quite dry on the recent agreements for Kyle Larson and Alex Bowman, but Hendrick has designs on long-term deals all around.

Larson signed Wednesday to a one-year contract extension with Hendrick Motorsports, a deal that includes nearly full-time backing from HendrickCars.com on his No. 5 Chevrolet for the next two seasons. That comes on the heels of a June 18 contract agreement with Bowman, whose deal is now concurrent with primary sponsor Ally through 2023.

That leaves defending Cup Series champion Chase Elliott and teammate William Byron with contracts set to expire after the 2022 season. Hendrick said Wednesday those negotiations have been a constant focus, but making the driver-sponsorship components final with Larson and the No. 5 team required extra work in the short term. That hasn’t deterred Hendrick from keeping his four-driver lineup intact for the long haul.

“Absolutely, my plan is for Chase and William to retire with us, so that’s an ongoing situation with me,” Hendrick said. “I love the lineup right now, and I want to keep the band together.”

All four Hendrick Motorsports drivers have scored Cup Series wins this season. Larson leads the group with four victories, and Bowman has a career-best three. Elliott has won twice, and Byron has once.

Elliott’s most recent contract development was a four-year extension through 2022 that he signed in June 2017. At the time, Elliott was in his second year driving the No. 24 Chevrolet and fresh from taking Sunoco Rookie of the Year honors in 2016. He took over the No. 9 car in 2018.

Byron, now the driver of Hendrick’s No. 24 Chevy, was last signed to an extension in September 2020. That deal — which also runs until the end of the 2022 season — was announced just three days after Byron clinched his first Cup Series win at Daytona International Speedway.

Posted on July 14, 2021July 14, 2021 by Marcus DiNitto

Kurt Busch’s victory at Atlanta Motor Speedway last Sunday marked the first time since the season-opening Daytona 500 that a team outside NASCAR’s “Big 3” took the checkers in a Cup Series race. It broke a streak of 19 races won by a driver from either Hendrick Motorsports, Joe Gibbs Racing or Team Penske.

The win by the driver of the No. 1 Chip Ganassi Racing Chevrolet got us thinking: With 15 races remaining on the 2021 Cup schedule, how many more victories are in store for the non-“Big 3?” And if a sportsbook were to offer such a prop bet, what would the over/under be?

We put that question, plus a few others looking ahead to the rest of the 2021 season, to oddsmaker Ed Salmons and quantitative NASCAR analyst Jim Sannes.

To be clear, these are mock props and not available for wagering at any legal sportsbook that we know of. Nevertheless, they make for fun discussion.

Prop: Over/under number of wins for drivers not from Hendrick, Gibbs or Penske teams in season’s final 15 races

Salmons, who handles NASCAR duties at SuperBook USA in Las Vegas, guesses we’ll see just one more victory from a driver outside the “Big 3” teams. If he were to book it, he’d hang the over/under at either 0.5 wins with heavy vig on the “over,” or 1.5 wins juiced to the “under.”

Sannes, who counts NASCAR among the sports he covers from a betting and DFS perspective at numberFire, would love the plus-money on “over” 1.5, as he projects 2.5 more wins for the non-“Big 3.”

(In fairness, Salmons’ numbers were off the top of his head. We were fortunate to have caught Sannes during the MLB All-Star break, when he had time to run quick simulations. Salmons’ lines are typically not so soft.)

‘The main reason for (projecting 2.5 wins) is there’s Daytona and Talladega left,” Sannes said. “Obviously, (Denny) Hamlin’s a guy you’re going to be turning to for both of those, but you have Ricky Stenhouse (Jr.), you’ve got Aric Almirola, you’ve got some pretty prominent names who have a good shot at winning there. I have the odds of a non-‘Big 3’ team at 33% for both of those races. … Having both Daytona and Talladega remaining on the schedule really does beef that number up.”

Salmons also stressed the randomness of restrictor-plate races is a major influence on how he would price this prop.

Prop: Over/under number of races won by Kyle Larson in the season’s final 15 races

Kyle Larson won three points races in a row earlier this season, has a series-best four victories on the year and is projected to be the points leader heading into the playoffs. But while he remains the favorite to win the Cup championship, his week-to-week dominance has eroded. In fact, he’s the just the fourth betting choice, at 7-1 odds, for Sunday’s race in New Hampshire Motor Speedway.

Salmons ballparked 2.5 more wins for the No. 5 Chevrolet the rest of the way. Sannes’ number is 3.5, although he’d pass on betting Salmons the “over.”

The schedule doesn’t set up well for Larson, according to Sannes. There are only three races remaining on mile-and-a-half tracks, where Larson is strongest, and much of his success with the 750-horsepower package has come on road courses and concrete tracks.

“Michigan, he should be awesome at, and he’s been good at road courses, but the 750 package, outside of Dover and Nashville, hasn’t been that great,” Sannes said. “I view Dover and Nashville separately because they’re concrete, and when I was back testing my model, it did seem like concrete played a role. Larson’s obviously great at Bristol (also concrete) and Dover, but it’s not going to directly translate to me projecting his win odds super high at places like New Hampshire, Richmond or Phoenix, and Martinsville is one of his worst tracks.”

Sannes shook some more salt on his projection of 3.5.

“It’s mostly schedule, but it’s sort of tough to win in the Cup Series, so if you gave me 2.5, I would stay away from it personally,” he said.

RELATED: 2021 Cup Series schedule

Prop: Will Kevin Harvick win a race this season?

Kevin Harvick won nine times last season and amassed 21 victories in the three-year span from 2018-20. But he has yet to win in 2021, and per Salmons, the No. 4 Ford is an underdog to win at all this year.

Our oddsmaker estimated the “no” side of the “Will Harvick win a race” prop as a -130 or -140 favorite, meaning the “yes” would pay in the +110 to +120 range.

At that pricing, the “yes” would be of interest to Sannes, who projects a win total of 0.819 for Harvick and odds of him winning at least one race around 57%, which would make the “yes” odds about -132.

“That’s under the assumption that the upward trajectory doesn’t accelerate,” Sannes said. “And I wouldn’t expect it to. Midseason, it’s hard to make a lot of improvements.”

Sunday’s Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 represents one of Harvick’s better chances to get off the schneid, per Sannes.

“They were a lot faster in Nashville than they’ve been all year,” he said, “and that does influence things for me in New Hampshire.”

Salmons opened Harvick at 16-1 odds to win Sunday.

Marcus DiNitto is a writer and editor living in Charlotte, North Carolina. He has been covering sports for nearly two-and-a-half decades and sports betting for more than 10 years. His first NASCAR betting experience was in 1995 at North Wilkesboro Speedway, where he went 0-for-3 on his matchup picks. Read his articles and follow him on Twitter; do not bet his picks.

Posted on July 14, 2021July 14, 2021 by Zack Albert

Hendrick Motorsports announced a one-year contract extension for driver Kyle Larson that will keep him in the team’s No. 5 Chevrolet through 2023.

The deal comes with a nearly full-season primary sponsorship in the NASCAR Cup Series from Hendrick Automotive Group the next two years. That backing includes an agreement for Larson to use HendrickCars.com branding on his helmet, driver’s suit and gloves in his non-NASCAR racing schedule.

Larson, 28, leads the Cup Series with four victories this season, giving him 10 for his career. He sits as the projected No. 1 seed in the 10-race postseason in his first year with Hendrick Motorsports.

“It’s been a big year for Kyle,” team owner Rick Hendrick said in a news release. “His talent inside the race car has been on full display, and he’s doing amazing things through his foundation and with our partners. I’m proud of his hard work and look forward to having him on our team for many years to come.”

All four of Hendrick Motorsports’ drivers — Larson, Alex Bowman, William Byron and Chase Elliott — are signed through at least the 2022 Cup Series season. Bowman reached a contract extension with the organization on June 18, keeping him in the No. 48 Chevrolet through 2023. Elliott, the defending Cup Series champion, was signed four years ago to an extension through 2022, and Byron’s deal was extended through ’22 just three days after he scored his first Cup Series win in the 2020 regular-season finale.

Larson joined Hendrick Motorsports this season after spending the last six-plus seasons with Chip Ganassi Racing. He was suspended by NASCAR and fired by the team in April 2020 after his use of a racial slur during an iRacing broadcast. He was signed by Hendrick last October shortly after his reinstatement, which is contingent on Larson fulfilling continued outreach efforts that promote diversity and inclusion.

HendrickCars.com is set to sponsor Larson’s No. 5 in 35 of the 38 Cup Series races (including non-points events) next season. Valvoline will serve as the primary sponsor for the remaining three Cup events next season. Hendrick Automotive Group cited increases in website traffic — both overall (a 27% rise) and including significant spikes on days when Larson either led the most laps or won.

“Kyle’s performance on the track has delivered a measurable business return for us,” said Darryl Jackson, vice president of financial services for Hendrick Automotive Group. “The company is on pace for a record year in 2021, and we certainly see our motor sports programs contributing to that success. Racing is in our DNA, and tapping into the passionate fanbases of NASCAR, the NHRA and now Kyle’s grassroots program is both very effective and a perfect fit for who we are.”

Larson won six Cup Series races with the Ganassi operation. He is also a 12-time winner in the Xfinity Series and has two victories in the Camping World Truck Series.

Posted on July 14, 2021July 15, 2021 by Staff Report

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