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October 19, 2024

What to Watch: Best of the best set to shine in Las Vegas glow


South Point 400

(⏰ Sunday, 2:30 p.m. ET | NBC | NBC Sports App | PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio)

Weekend schedule | TV schedule | Weather tracker | NASCAR 101

Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
Track length: 1.5 miles
Race purse: $8,157,812
Race distance: 267 laps | 400.5 miles
Stages: 80 | 165 | 267

Starting lineup: Christopher Bell storms to pole position | Read more
Pit stall assignments:
See where drivers will pit
Defending winner:
Kyle Larson, October 2023

Key things to watch

Saturday sessions

Christopher Bell laid down a lap at 185.344 mph to secure the Busch Light Pole Award for Sunday’s South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. The top spot on the starting grid is Bell’s second straight in the Vegas playoff race and third overall at the 1.5- mile oval. Tyler Reddick was just 0.013 seconds shy of knocking off Bell and will start second ahead of Alex Bowman, Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson.

Defending NASCAR Cup Series champion Ryan Blaney crashed early in Saturday’s practice due to a punctured left-rear tire, sending his No. 12 Team Penske Ford into a skid and the retaining SAFER barrier. Blaney was treated and released from the infield care center and will start Sunday’s event from the rear of the field.| Full Saturday recap

Big story line

Go all in to win big in Las Vegas

In 2021, Kyle Larson won at Las Vegas Motor Speedway to open the Round of 8, then went on to win the championship. The next year, Joey Logano did the same thing. Larson nearly pulled it off again in 2023 but instead fell runner-up to Ryan Blaney in the championship race at Phoenix.

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Larson on loaded Round of 8 lineup: ‘The cream has risen’ Larson on loaded Round of 8 lineup: ‘The cream has risen’

The moral of this story is simple: Win in Las Vegas, and your chances to win the NASCAR Cup Series championship three weeks later improve.

A victory with two weeks remaining in the Round of 8 allows the triumphant team to square all preparation on the title-deciding 312-lap finale at Phoenix Raceway rather than relying upon success at either Homestead-Miami Speedway or Martinsville Speedway to earn a spot into the Championship 4.

Crew chief Chris Gabehart’s No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing team made the title round of the postseason in three consecutive seasons from 2019-21 with driver Denny Hamlin and the Round of 8 in each of the last two. The advantages of winning Sunday in Vegas are on his mind, but so too is not losing sight of the two races between Las Vegas and Phoenix.

“You still want to go perform well at Homestead and Martinsville because momentum is important,” Gabehart told NASCAR.com Saturday. “Momentum and confidence that comes from good performance is important. But it certainly allows you to know that the results of those two races don’t necessarily matter, so you can focus more on Phoenix and prep — not necessarily on the car-build side. I mean, I feel like that prep is going to be there either way, but it’s more about simulation and studying the weekend in a larger amount of detail.

“And then the psychological aspects are you don’t have to go through the extra two weeks of ‘will we or won’t we’ (advance). And while those aren’t quantifiable, that stress, if you will, is real. So getting to have a breath for a couple of weeks, psychological side and go to Phoenix rested and so to speak, is important.”

Jonathan Hassler led the No. 12 Team Penske group to the 2023 Cup Series championship with Blaney behind the wheel, scoring the Martinsville win to propel the team into the Championship 4. That experience provides more perspective one year later.

“I think it’s just making sure all the details are right for Phoenix,” Hassler said of winning at Vegas. “Honestly, each of the next two weeks, Homestead and Martinsville, if you’re not in, you’re not really focused on Phoenix because you’re not (sure you’re) going to be there at Phoenix. Obviously, being on the West Coast, it’s a day less to work on the cars anyway (at the shop) from what we’re used to, a day or more. So yeah, definitely, it just gives you every opportunity to make sure every detail is right.”

That isn’t lost on Logano either, after No. 22 was granted a second life in the Round of 8 following the disqualification of Alex Bowman’s No. 48 Chevrolet after last week’s race at the Charlotte Roval.

“It really is one of the most important races of the year,” Logano said, “because whoever wins this race, if they’re in the top eight, they have a tremendous advantage going in, mainly because you’re focused 100% on that. You go for a couple weeks to Miami and Martinsville, and you’re like, whatever. You’re just thinking 100% about Phoenix.”

History tells us…

Hendrick teams will be the ones to beat. Hendrick Motorsports’ Kyle Larson, William Byron and Alex Bowman have combined to win five of the last seven Cup races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. That includes three in a row, with Byron victorious in the spring of 2023 and Larson scoring wins in each of the last two Vegas events.

Chase Elliott has not had the same success in 14 prior starts in the Nevada desert. His runner-up finish in the 2021 fall race is one of only three top-five results Elliott has in Las Vegas, with finishes of 21st, 32nd and 12th in his last three starts.

“We’ve put a lot of emphasis and a lot of effort into trying to make this race track better, and me personally trying to do a better job driving here,” Elliott said Saturday. “And I thought we took a really, really nice step. So, you know, I hope that holds true. I hope we can, you know, take that another step this weekend.”

He may not be the betting favorite to win, but watch out for…

ROSS CHASTAIN. Chastain may not be a playoff contender, but that might be a blessing for those left in the championship hunt. The driver of the No. 1 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet has been a force to be reckoned with throughout the 2024 postseason, and his Kansas Speedway win on Sept. 29 would have propelled him to the Round of 8 if he had made the playoff field.

Now, Chastain returns to the site of his first NASCAR Xfinity Series win, where he has been incredible in recent trips to the Nevada desert, collecting four top-five finishes in his last five Vegas Cup starts with a combined 153 laps led. After a fourth-place effort at the 1.5-mile oval in March, the statistics argue a strong case for the trend to continue Sunday afternoon. | Las Vegas odds

ross chastain smiles
Meg Oliphant | Getty Images

Speed reads

Our biggest pieces of the week — get covered for race day from all angles.

– Bubble Watch: Which drivers need big points day on Sunday? | Photo gallery
– A new voice: Diffey brings enthusiasm, energy, distinct voice to broadcast | Read article
– ‘The cream has risen’:
Last year’s Championship 4 back in the Round of 8 a year later | Read article
– ‘We have new life’:
Justin Allgaier resets mindset after brutal Xfinity Round of 12 | Read article
– Projecting the future:
Where Racing Insights predicts drivers will finish in Vegas | Read article
– Inside the Race: How Reddick rebounded through Roval obstacles | Watch video
– Crew rosters:
See the full roster for every Cup Series team competing this weekend | Read article
– Power Rankings: Can Larson follow path of dominance to another title? | Photo gallery
– Turning Point: The secret to making the Championship 4 from here | Read article
– NASCAR Betting:
Which Round of 8 contender is favored at Las Vegas? | Photo gallery
– Racing Insights:
Full finishing order projections for Sunday’s playoff race | Read article
– 36 for 36: Check out this week’s survivor pool picks | Read article
– Fantasy Fastlane:
Rolling the dice with playoff drivers in Vegas | Photo gallery
– Memorable moments: From Mark Martin’s win in the inaugural race to Caruth’s truck win | Photo gallery
– NASCAR Classics: Rewind with three Vegas all-timers from the vault | Read article
– Paint Scheme Preview:
Glitz and glamour under the Vegas lights | Pick your favorite

Fast facts

Race-relevant statistics, brought to you by the experts at Racing Insights.

Las Vegas winners started inside the top 10 in eight of the last nine races.
There have been six or more cautions in seven of the last nine Las Vegas races.
The pole winner has only gone on to win once in track history (Kyle Busch – 2009). Busch started the race in the rear after changing an engine.

MUST WATCH