At long last, we have our Championship 4.
It took 35 races with plenty of twists and turns over eight-and-a-half months, culminating in a head-to-head points battle at Martinsville and one of the most clutch walk-off wins in playoff history, but Chase Briscoe, Denny Hamlin, William Byron and Kyle Larson will battle it out Sunday at Phoenix Raceway (3 p.m. ET, NBC, Peacock, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) to determine the fate of the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series title.
For each driver, there are legacies and history to consider — Larson looking to solidify himself as one of the greatest ever, Byron and Briscoe searching for a championship to validate a new level of prestige in the middle of their primes and Hamlin trying to shed his title as the greatest driver to never win a championship. But when the checkered flag falls Sunday, only one will drive to the front of this season’s pack and etch his name into NASCAR’s record books.
Who will it be? Let’s break down the biggest reasons why — and why not — each of the final four could be the one lifting the Bill France Cup when everything is said and done:
Denny Hamlin
DraftKings Odds: +200
Forecast probability: 26.3%
Playoff finishes: 7-1-31 | 12-2-23 | 1-24-35
Career Phoenix wins: 2
Next Gen average finish at Phoenix: 10.9
Why he can win it all: If you believe in the power of narrative, fate, destiny or the racing gods, this has the feeling of finally being Denny’s year to win a championship. At 44, Hamlin is defying the sport’s aging curve and having one of the best seasons of his career — all while knowing he may not get another chance this good to finally turn that brilliance into a title. It may be now or never on Sunday.
So the urgency is there, as well as the experience, while still being at the top of his game. Phoenix demands all of that; it’s an interesting mile-long flat track that shares similarities with Richmond, Gateway and New Hampshire as well, and no active driver has been better on those tracks — either in his career or in the Next Gen car — than Hamlin, according to either Adjusted Points+ index or Driver Rating:
Add in the fact that Hamlin has probably been the most deserving driver to win the championship this year — only teammate Christopher Bell (192) has a higher Adjusted Points+ index than Denny’s 181 mark, and Hamlin has a series-high six wins to Bell’s four — it would be fitting if the No. 11 car drove its way to the title on Sunday.
Why he can’t: Hamlin’s main concern might be the health of the No. 11 car, as he had to retire from the race at Martinsville (and finish 35th) because of a blown engine. That incident led to a long conversation with team officials in the garage, and it’s the kind of gremlin that can’t happen again at Phoenix.
But beyond that, Hamlin has been in this position plenty of times before in his long career, repeatedly failing to seal the deal at the final race of the season. In 2010, he went to Homestead leading Jimmie Johnson by 15 points in the Chase for the Cup, but a 14th-place finish — 12 places behind Johnson — cost him the crown. He made the Championship 4 in 2014, 2019, 2020 and 2021, but never finished better than third among the contenders … despite finishing top 10 in each race overall. He’s never been quite up to a championship-quality drive when the trophy is on the line.
And Hamlin will need perfect late-race execution this weekend — certainly better than he’s gotten at Phoenix lately, where he hasn’t won since November 2019 and has finished 11th or worse in four of his past seven starts. That almost certainly won’t cut it for a championship this time around.
Kyle Larson
DraftKings Odds: +250
Forecast probability: 28.8%
Playoff finishes: 19-12-32 | 7-6-2 | 2-26-5
Career Phoenix wins: 1
Next Gen average finish at Phoenix: 10.1
Why he can win it all: Ummm … because he’s Kyle Larson? He was the preseason betting favorite to win the championship, he was the pre-playoffs co-favorite (with Ryan Blaney) to win the championship and he now has as good a case to be the favorite at Phoenix as anybody.
Among those reasons might be that he’s riding the hottest run of recent form for any Championship 4 driver, with an average Driver Rating of 103.2 in the playoffs — joining his Martinsville rival Bell (103.6) as the only drivers with a triple-digit average over the past nine races, and solidly clear of the next-best driver (Chase Briscoe at 99.5).
After a long lull (by his standards) at midseason, Larson pulled himself out of the doldrums at exactly the right time, and he might be saving his best for last at Phoenix. He didn’t live down to his previous tendency of finding ways to flame out in the Round of 8, either. With guidance from crew chief Cliff Daniels, Larson drove with the smarts and maturity of a former champion — he’s the only one of those in the Championship 4, by the way — in his head-to-head points duel against Bell at Martinsville, making sure he did exactly what he needed to punch his ticket to Phoenix as a title contender.
While he’ll need to aim slightly higher this Sunday, most likely with an eye on the checkered flag, Larson has the talent, championship pedigree, skill at Phoenix (plus similar tracks) and recent form to keep all three of his rivals up at night worrying this week.
Why he can’t: Aside from his playoff form — and general aura as one of the most gifted drivers of his generation, the kind of which feels like should win multiple championships — Larson can’t necessarily point to any one single stat where he is obviously better than his Championship 4 rivals.
For instance, in terms of career Phoenix performance, Hamlin has been slightly better by pretty much every metric. In the Next Gen era, Byron has his teammate beat (see below). Hamlin has been better across the Phoenix-adjacent bellwethers, regardless of the time frame. Byron was better over the course of the entire season by Driver Rating; Hamlin was better by Adjusted Points+ index; Briscoe by Average Finish. Hamlin has more wins and Briscoe has more top fives.
By reputation, Larson ought to still be able to overcome the fact he’s second-best among the Champ 4 across a bunch of measures and can outduel everyone he needs to, like he did when he won the title race in 2021. But it’s also not very hard to envision another race like in 2023, his only other shot at the championship, when Larson finished third but didn’t lead a lap while letting the title slip to Blaney.
William Byron
DraftKings Odds: +275
Forecast probability: 22.1%
Playoff finishes: 21-11-12 | 3-9-11 | 36-25-1
Career Phoenix wins: 1
Next Gen average finish at Phoenix: 8.0
Why he can win it all: Byron may well have been the steadiest, most consistently fast driver in the Cup Series this season. According to average Driver Rating, Byron is the best in the field with an average performance grade of 97.8 — well clear of teammate and runner-up Kyle Larson at 93.8. What was his secret? He certainly had the ability to produce a superstar race like we saw last Sunday, but others were better at that. His real secret was a dramatically lower rate of subpar races than other top drivers:
That speaks partly to why Byron is such a threat on Sunday — he has an incredibly high floor in his performance level that other Champ 4 drivers know they’ll probably need to beat an elite performance in order to fend off Byron. (In his previous two Championship 4 appearances, he’s finished no worse than 4th with a 116.7 Driver Rating.) You know what else helps? The fact Byron has the best average Driver Rating of any driver at Phoenix in the Next Gen era:
Finally, we saw the killer instinct of a champion on full display last weekend at Martinsville. Knowing he would need to win to advance, Byron qualified on pole, won each stage of the race, led 304 of a possible 500 laps and made a perfectly timed pass on Ryan Blaney with just over 40 laps to go that ended up being the difference in his Championship 4 bid. It all earned him a near-perfect Driver Rating of 147.7, the second-highest in a walk-off win to clinch a Champ 4 appearance in the history of the current format — trailing only Kevin Harvick’s perfect 150.0 at Phoenix in the penultimate race of the 2014 season for clutch must-win victories:
Harvick, of course, went on to win at Homestead-Miami the following week to secure his first (and only) career title. Will Byron follow in those championship footsteps?
Why he can’t: I know we just got done laying out a lot of reasons why Byron can win, but maybe the biggest reason he can’t is that he didn’t always turn that consistent speed into victories during the season. Despite having the best Driver Rating of anybody in the Cup Series — again, by a wide margin — he only won three races, with Sunday’s victory being his first since Iowa in early August. During that span, he’d posted only two top fives and three top 10s, including an average finish of 16.0 in the playoffs before Martinsville, part of why he has the fewest top fives (11) and top 10s (16) of any Champ 4 driver this year.
And as we showed in the chart for Larson, Byron is kind of the opposite of his teammate — he remains easily the worst Championship 4 driver by average Driver Rating during the playoffs, checking in with a 93.1 rating that’s actually worse than Joey Logano’s 93.2 over the same span. That’s why Byron needed his clutch drive last week in the first place, and while he got exactly what he needed, recent form has not been in his favor.
Chase Briscoe
DraftKings Odds: +370
Forecast probability: 22.8%
Playoff finishes: 1-2-9 | 10-4-14 | 4-1-37
Career Phoenix wins: 1
Next Gen average finish at Phoenix: 15.6
Why he can win it all: Briscoe is admittedly the least-heralded of the 2025 Championship 4 by far, having won just five career races — or 31 fewer than the average of Hamlin (60), Larson (32) and Byron (16). But don’t let the underdog story distract you from the fact Briscoe absolutely belongs fighting for a championship.
As we noted in August, Briscoe had overcome a period of early-season adjustment to his new No. 19 ride with Joe Gibbs Racing, sneakily putting together one of the hottest stretches anyone had all season long. For the entire second half of the regular season, Briscoe was the best in Cup by average Driver Rating (96.8), comfortably besting Blaney (93.5) and Byron (91.9). And as we saw in that chart with Larson from above, Briscoe has carried that form over into the playoffs, with the second-best rating of any Champ 4 driver during the past nine races.
As a result, Briscoe remains the top-ranked driver by average rating since the middle of the regular season, a nearly six-month stretch of success that has to matter if we think momentum means anything in the push for a championship:
And during the span of the playoffs alone, Briscoe has won twice with two more top fives (5) than any other Championship 4 driver and two more top 10s (7). Simply put, he’s been scary consistent at running near the front of the field, which bodes well in a track-position race like Phoenix.
Why he can’t: Just like his teammate Hamlin, Briscoe can’t have a repeat of the blown engine that knocked him out of Martinsville early and landed him in last place. (While that’s completely out of his control, it is a consideration, albeit an unlikely one to strike again.)
The more pressing factor for Briscoe might be his lack of both experience and success at Phoenix, relative to the rest of the Championship 4. He does have one career win there — his first career victory, to be exact, in March 2022 — just like Larson and Byron do, but he has a much worse track record overall, with the worst career Average Finish, Adjusted Points+ index and Driver Rating (and fewest career starts) at Phoenix of any driver going for the title:
Granted, much of that resume was compiled by Briscoe with Stewart-Haas Racing, a much less competitive team than the JGR outfit he drives for now. However, in our lone exposure to Briscoe at Phoenix with JGR, he started 30th, finished 35th and posted a putrid 40.5 Driver Rating — his second-worst race of the entire season. You can’t read too much into one race, but it’s indicative of how we should perhaps be less certain about Briscoe having an elite Phoenix run than the other three guys he’s up against.
Final Verdict
I went into this column expecting to pick either Hamlin or Larson, on the basis of their talent, experience and success in the desert. But the more I dug into the numbers, the more Byron leaped off the page for his combination of different important factors — the consistency, lack of down performances, recent Phoenix track record and maybe even the clutch walk-off win last week. There are plenty of ways to argue for the other three members of the Championship 4, and one of them may well win with the margins being as thin as they are. But at the end of the day, Byron feels like the driver who checks more boxes than the rest — and if that proves to be any guide, he’s the one most likely to finish it with the trophy in hand.